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POLL: Times/Bloomberg IN/PA/NC


Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg
(story, results)

Pennsylvania 4/10 through 4/14
Clinton 46, Obama 41

Indiana 4/10 through 4/14
Obama 40, Clinton 35

North Carolina 4/10 through 4/14
Obama 47, Clinton 34

 

Comments
Mike_in_CA:

Another poll confirming the single-digit Clinton lead in PA. Referring to my post on the SV poll, I predict a PA backlash against Clinton for her ABSOLUTELY ridiculous pandering on the "bitter" comments. Tomorrow's debate will be a defining moment for both of them. If Obama can prove that he is staying ON MESSAGE, and Clinton continues to veer off, expect a groundswell against her. Polls may not even pick it up by next Tues.

Also, per the Indiana poll, I think this supports my argument from yesterday about SUSA's polling -- that they PUSH leaners a lot. That poll had C-55, O-39. This poll has Obama at 35, which is actually LESS support than the SUSA poll. But it has CLinton at 40, meaning that there is a gigantic amount of undecideds. At this point, it does appear undecideds flock to Clinton in early polling because, believe it or not, not everyone is a political junkie. They may catch a 10 minute piece on the evening news about the race, and may catch the morning headline when the sign on to AOL mail, but thats it for most people. Not many people watch CNN 24/7. So, I think Indiana is a true tossup.

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political_junki:

Mike,
I think there is an error in your comment. In Times/Bloomberg IN/PA/NC poll, Obama is 40% and Hillary 35% not the other way. Anyway, it still proves your points.

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ca-indp:

[comment deleted]

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political_junki:

ca-indp,
why so rude? take a chil pill dude!

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Mike_in_CA:

ca-indp,

Ad hominem attacks may work on MyDD, but I think I made a valid point, and I never once mentioned a "1% move here and there". I was commenting on how SUSA really pushes leaners and how this poll didn't seem to, and Obama's % came out about the same, but Clinton's was drastically lower (Thanks political_junki for pointing out my error!)

Also, you're calling me an "idiot" when you replace you with u and your with ur and are with r? Seriously? Oh, and that same old tired "Obama Crackpots." Anyone who doesn't agree with you must be deranged? This is a site to discuss polls. get out of here with your ridiculous talk.

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NYKid77:

I wonder how much Obama paid for this poll. 25% undecided or not included after 6 weeks of campaigning? It's a joke. And how is including leaners "push polling"? Polls are supposed to reflect who the voter will vote for at the time the poll is conducted, not including people because they "lean" instead of "strongly support" is the same as expecting them not to vote.

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cinnamonape:

NYKid77-

Both you and Mike are both correct. By "pushing" those who say "I'm undecided" to suggest who they are leaning for would generate an accurate depiction of the vote IF these people were actually coming out to vote. But they are not yet highly motivated to support a candidate.

The Times Bloomberg poll shows that those that are highly motivated Obama has a clear lead.

So the question is how many of those soft voters will turn out, shrug and vote for Clinton.

I think that if one only had the SUSA poll to look at one would think that Clinton had the state easily wrapped up. But the Times Survey shows that Obamas supporters may be more motivated and not only come out on election day, but work to convert that soft-underbelly over to their side more actively.

In a sense this is an important bit of information for the Clinton camp. They need to not ride of the superficial gloss of what the SUSA poll presented and make sure they campaign to strengthen their support, or it could easily be lost to Obama in the next several weeks.

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cinnamonape:

Oh, and just a comment about this being an "Obama sponsored poll". In the North Carolina survey the results show one of the narrower (though still double digit) leads of the myriad polls. That would seem a little odd if this was a "pro-Obama" set of pollsters.

And as I pointed out above, polls can reveal weaknesses in your campaign strategy that might be shrouded by "good polls". By doing that this poll actually works in Hillary's favor, given that its still many weeks off from the election. She can make adjustments. She doesn't get overconfident.

Late polls have a major effect in signalling to supporters whether to turn out. If it's close it can motivate both sides. If it looks like a runaway it can actually suppress the turnout of one or the other side depending upon motivation levels. It gets very tricky when candidates have to aim for a winning percentage rather than a straight-out victory.

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kingsbridge77:

This is a Bloomberg poll.

Don't forget that mayor Bloomberg is said to have been considering endorsing Obama. Obama was even his guest recently in a New York City event.

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John Paul Telhomme:

kingsbridge77,

Mayor Bloomberg doesn't run around telling the people who do the polling for him to manipulate numbers or that would have been reflected in the numbers weeks ago. Besides, he has not declared his support for either candidate.... As a former Republican, he is probably still for McCain. Hillary hasn't done herself much good by the excessive criticism of Obama and the the histrionics. She didn't seem to understand that she was ahead and has now pushed way too hard. She will lose PA

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