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POLL: Times/Bloomberg Iowa and New Hampshire Surveys


Two new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg statewide surveys (Times story, results; Bloomberg GOP story, Dem story) of 2,312 adults in Iowa and 1,459 adults in New Hampshire (conducted 12/20 through 12/23 and 12/26) finds:

  • Among 580 Democratic caucus goers in Iowa, Sen. Hillary Clinton runs at 29%, Sen. Barack Obama at 26%, and former Sen. John Edwards at 25% in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 6%. Among 389 likely Democratic caucus goers, Clinton runs at 31%, Edwards at 25%, Obama at 22%, Richardson at 7%, and Sen. Joe Biden at 6%.
  • Among 310 Republican caucus goers in Iowa, former Gov. Mike Huckabee leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (37% to 23%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. John McCain and former Sen. Fred Thompson trail at 11%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani trails at 6%. Among 174 likely Republican caucus goers, Huckabee runs at 36%, Romney at 28%, Thompson at 10%, McCain and Giuliani both at 8%.
  • Among 519 Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, Obama runs at 32%, Clinton at 30%, and Edwards at 18% in a statewide primary; Richardson trails at 6%. Among 361 likely Democratic primary voters, Obama runs at 32%, Clinton at 30%, and Edwards at 20%.
  • Among 442 Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, Romney leads McCain (34% to 21%) in a statewide primary; Giuliani trails at 14%, Huckabee at 9%, Paul at 6%. Among 318 likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads McCain (34% to 20%); Giuliani trails at 17%, Huckabee at 12%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 5% for Democratic caucus goers and for likely Democratic caucus goers in Iowa, 6% for Republican caucus goers and 7% for likely Republican caucus goers in Iowa, 4% for Democratic primary voters and 5% for likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, 5% for Republican primary voters and 6% for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.

 

Comments
Sieglinde:

In the New Hampshire poll, Clinton is at 30%, not 20%. Please correct the typo.

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Paul:

Would someone in the know explain significance of difference between "caucus goer" and "likely caucus goer"? The results do vary by sample.

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wxdavid:

More proof that ARG results with the BIG hillary surge in Iowa ...is crap

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Anonymous:

"likely caucus goer" is someone who has caucused before and therefore fits the profile of someone who will likely do so again. Caucusing can be intimidating and many voters will say they'll come out and support so and so, and not actually come out. Young voters are among the likeliest to say they'll caucus but get too intimidated to actually go out at night and publicly state their preferences among all these older people. Four years ago Dean had droves of college age voters saying they'd support him and it skewed his Iowa poll numbers high but they didn't come out for him in the end. Therefore his "likely caucus goer" numbers were lower than his "caucus goer" numbers. The same thing is happening with Obama this time, as his "likely" numbers are four points lower than the larger sample.

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