Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Times/Bloomberg National


Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg
(Times story, results; Bloomberg story)

National
Obama 48, Clinton 42
McCain 46, Clinton 40...McCain 44, Obama 42

 

Comments
Lisa:

This poll is very different from the other polls. Yesterday a poll came out that had Obama 16 points ahead of McCain! and this one has him 2 points behind? How is that?

____________________

Wani:

Psst, Lisa,


POLLS are BS. See Wisconsin or just about any other from this primary season.



____________________

Anonymous:

Ok I have a serious question that perhaps pollster could ansew. When polls such as this say they are from likely voters how are they smpling states that have already voted, or are they only sampling states that haven't voted.

So for example, when cbs syas that Obama has a 16% lead, is that a popularity contest, or is that a 16% lead in the states that haven't voted or does that factor in the states that have voted by percentages, making it a 35% or so lead in the states that haven't voted, which I find implausible.

I have a problem with a poll saying it is from Likely voteers, or Adults when more than half of the country has already voted?

Since this is supposed to be some sort of survey relevent to the nomination process and one cannot vote twice and ones opinion is irrelevent when ones state has already voted why are these pollsters sampling everyone anbd pretending this ha some relevence to the race at hand, whic his only in the states yet to vote.

I have a big problem with how these polls are conducted and reported.


They should only be polling "opinion" ie not numerical and imperical fact in states that haven't voted.

____________________

s.b.:

Ok I have a serious question that perhaps pollster could ansew. When polls such as this say they are from likely voters how are they smpling states that have already voted, or are they only sampling states that haven't voted.

So for example, when cbs says that Obama has a 16% lead, is that a popularity contest, or is that a 16% lead in the states that haven't voted or does that factor in the states that have voted by percentages, making it a 35% or so lead in the states that haven't voted, which I find implausible. I'm guessing they are gauging a popularity contest, which has no relevence to the nomination itself as far as the numerical race for the nomination is concerned.

I have a problem with a poll saying it is from Likely voteers, or Adults when more than half of the country has already voted?

Since this is supposed to be some sort of survey relevent to the nomination process and one cannot vote twice and ones opinion is irrelevent when ones state has already voted why are these pollsters sampling everyone anbd pretending this ha some relevence to the race at hand, whic his only in the states yet to vote.

I have a big problem with how these polls are conducted and reported.


They should only be polling "opinion" ie NOT numerical and imperical fact that cannot be changed and is now a part of history in states that haven't voted.

____________________

Rasmus:

Why do you still visit pollster.com, then?

I think the difference is because of the methodology and the Margin of Error, the sampling etc.pp.
This poll should be realistic, I am sure that Obama is NOT trailing McCain by 16 points.

The Matchups I can find on realclearpolitics dor yesterday and today have following margins:

-Obama +12
-McCain +1
-Obama +10
-Obama +6


Are you sure you did not mix some polls?
There is a poll with a 16% Obama- lead, but for the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

Obama +4-5% should be realistic...

____________________

Rasmus:

Why do you still visit pollster.com, then?

I think the difference is because of the methodology and the Margin of Error, the sampling etc.pp.
This poll should be realistic, I am sure that Obama is NOT trailing McCain by 16 points.

The Matchups I can find on realclearpolitics dor yesterday and today have following margins:

-Obama +12
-McCain +1
-Obama +10
-Obama +6


Are you sure you did not mix some polls?
There is a poll with a 16% Obama- lead, but for the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

Obama +4-5% should be realistic...

____________________

s.b.:

Rasmus is your question for me??? Pollster.com doesn't put out polls. It's a forum for those interested in polls, and I obviously wasn't referring to POTUS matchups, which I believe to be completely absurd shots in the dark at this time. Even in October general percentages for POTUS mean little as all states are winner take all delegates to the electoral college, so only state by state break downs make any sense.

But an interesting point about popularity contest polls. John Kerry and Al Gore both won the popularity contest, George W Bush won the white house.

____________________

CommDirector:

S.B. -- no, I believe Rasmus' comment was for Wani, who said above that "Polls are BS" and Lisa, who said "Obama leads McCain by 16 pts."

For S.B. and your concern -- the National Polls you read is hypothetical match-up for the November General. That's why you see an Obama-McCain and a Clinton-McCain number. But a lot of people really don't put much stock on these numbers. Not because of what you said. But because it doesn't make sense to poll for a decision 9 months ahead. A lot can happen in that time.

____________________

CommDirector:

Can someone address Lisa's original question though -- do we have the internals of these polls, and can we judge whether they look 'right' or 'wrong'? Simply because all other polls have Obama leading vs McCain?

God knows, there are people better than me who can answer that.

____________________

Mary:

approximately 60% of the us population do not vote due to a total disillusion with the system
all Obama needs is 10% of them and the White House is his.

____________________

Andrew:

The 16 point lead some have spoken about is a Florida matchup between McCain and Obama, in a poll conducted by Rasmussen about a week ago:

The poll was released on February 19th and found that McCain drew 53% of the vote compared to 37% for Obama, in Florida.

link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20080219/pl_rasmussen/floridapresidential2008190820080219

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR