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POLL: UNH New Hampshire


University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll
7/11-20/08; 475 LV, 4.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interview

New Hampshire
Obama 46, McCain 43
Sen: Shaheen (D) 46, Sununu (R-i) 42
NH-01: Shea-Porter (D-i) 42, John Stephen (R) 36 (235 LV, 6.4%)
NH-01: Jeb Bradley (R) 46, Shea-Porter 40
NH-02: Paul Hodes (D-i) 44, Bob Clegg (R) 25 (240 LV, 6.3%)
NH-02: Paul Hodes 43, Jennifer Horn (R) 23

Gov: Lynch (D-i) 67, Kenney (R) 16

 

Comments
cinnamonape:

Interesting, the June polls by Rassmussen and ARG showed Obama with a double digit lead in NH. Is this a methodological difference or an actual shift?

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cinnamonape:

Interesting, the June polls by Rassmussen and ARG showed Obama with a double digit lead in NH. Is this a methodological difference or an actual shift?

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avatarMM:

i looked at this poll and it appears that they are overpolling republicans.

Obama wins 82% of Dems
McCain wins 78% of GOP

okay that is realistic and by election time i'm sure both will get 85-88% of their own party

now the weird thing is among indies it shows Obama up by 12% (which is not the weird part)

so if Obama and McCain are winning the same among their parties and Obama is winning indies by double digits then why is obama up by just 3?

makes no sense.

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avatarMM:

i looked at this poll and it appears that they are overpolling republicans.

Obama wins 82% of Dems
McCain wins 78% of GOP

okay that is realistic and by election time i'm sure both will get 85-88% of their own party

now the weird thing is among indies it shows Obama up by 12% (which is not the weird part)

so if Obama and McCain are winning the same among their parties and Obama is winning indies by double digits then why is obama up by just 3?

makes no sense.

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Jacob S:

Rasmussen uses polling that is weighted by party ID. I bet you that there are a lot more Indies and Dems than Reps in NH right now. If this poll were properly weighted, Obama would be beating McCain soundly. This analysis is in line with the 2004 and 2006 elections, during which the Dems won NH.

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carl29:

Since I compare oranges with oranges and apples with apples, let me see the previous University of New Hampshire Poll. In the previous poll, McCain was leading Obama 49% vs. 43%, now it is Obama 46% vs. McCain 43%. Obviously UNH noticed some movement since the previous poll.

The importance of polls at this stage is more about trend. For example, in May Rasmussen had Obama up by 5% in New Hampshire while University of NH had McCain up by 3%. Then, in June along it came the most recent Rasmussen poll in NH with Obama up by 11%, furthering the lead he already had, and now University of NH has Obama up by 3%, erasing McCain's previous lead with this pollster. Clearly both pollster reflect movement in Obama's direction. Nothing is for sure at this stage, but it is a good sign for Obama to be supported by a healthy % of democrats, at least healthier than McCain's support from Republicans, and to have the edge among independent voters, a big chunck in NH.

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Undecided:

According to New Hampshire pundits, they will change their minds continually up until voting day. It is in their independent nature.

51% are now committed to their candidate, 21% are leaning, and 28% have not made up their minds. That leaves room for a lot of "swing" in the polls.

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Paul:

The last UNH poll (late April) had McCain +6, so this poll reflects a 9 point turnaround towards Obama. RCP has Obama +3.7; 538 has Obama +6 and projects Obama +4.2 (73% probability of Obama win); Pollster.com has Obama +10.4. Conclusion: leans Obama. As a Kerry 2004 state, Obama needs to spend resources here to nail it down. The Clintons are popular in NH - they could be helpful.

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m finesod:

New Hampshire is one of the (5) swing states that will decide the Presidency. The toss-ups are:
Toss-Up (56): Colorado (9), Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21).
New Hampshire has a very slight lean towards Obama mostly because of Democrat past perfomance there. The candidate that gets the majority of these (56) electorial votes should win the Presidency.

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