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POLL: USA Today/Gallup National Primary


A new USA Today/Gallup national survey (USA Today article; results, blog; Gallup GOP analysis; Hillary analysis) of adults (conducted 11/30 through 12/2) finds:

  • Among 425 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee (25% to 16%) in a national primary; former Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain both trail at 15%, former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 12%.
  • Among 494 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (39% to 24%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 15%. Clinton's "support has fallen 11 percentage points in a month."
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

We will post full poll results as soon as they're available.

 

Comments
Matt:

I'm skeptical of polls taken over a holiday that runs thru a weekend - especially when such a holiday requires lots of travel and movements of population. I believe this could skew polling results.

What do you think?

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along:

I haven't looked into this yet, so the answer may be on the site somewhere. But the lack of Independents in the ISU poll sample today got me thinking: Do national polls generally exclude independents too? I would imagine they do, as it may be more difficult to identify them.

This USA Today/Gallup poll, for example, identifies Democrats and "leaning" Democrats, and the same for Republicans. But "leaners" means they're Democrats leaning toward one or another candidate, right?

I think Obama would be polling siginficantly higher nationally if independents were polled as well as the two major parties.

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Fourth:

Matt: I don't know if I would entirely trust a poll conducted over Thanksgiving weekend, but this poll was conducted the next week, so it shouldn't matter.

Along: I was under the impression that "lean Democrat" meant those who are registered as something else, but tend to vote Dem in elections and vote in Dem primaries/caucuses. I'm pretty sure pollsters are smart enough to not exclude an entire class of potential voters...but hey it'd be fine with me if Obama's true support was 5-10% higher :)

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Mark Blumenthal:

Along: For party primary trial heat questions, most national surveys, like Gallup, include voters that identify or lean to one of the parties. In this case, "lean" means they initially identify themselves as independent, then indicate on a follow-up question that they lean to one party or the other.

Some (but not Gallup) also screen for those who say they are registered to vote. Keep in mind, however, that the party identification question used on most national surveys asks respondents to report how they "think of themselves," not how they are registered.

More often than not, surveys taken within individual states use questions about party registration and intent to vote tailored to the primary rules in that particular state -- rather than the more vague party ID question -- to screen for "likely" primary voters.

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along:

Thanks very much for your explanation. I checked the actual Gallup results and, as you say, it does describe those "leaners" as independents leaning to one or the other party. The WaPo page was less clear.

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