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POLL: Alabama State University Primary


Alabama State University

Dems: Obama 31, Clinton 24
Reps: McCain 20, Huckabee 19, Romney 12

 

Comments
Phil:

How impossible is a brokered GOP convention at this point? Romney, presumably, is not much of a factor (Though he'll have Nevada, Michigan, Wyoming, MA, and Utah if nothing else), but if Huckabee can take the south (which he's clearly in range for), does that necessitate deal-making on McCain's part? Or does the winner-take-all nature of CA, FL, and NY put it in the bag for McCain?

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Nic:

Phil,

McCain will be the clear leader after Feb. 5th. The Winner take all states are big for McCain. it is true that Huckabee may win some Southern States and Romney some Western States, but even in those states, McCain will always be #2 and pick u delegates.

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Daniel T:

Phil. "Nic" is wrong. The very nature of the winner take all format means that fact mccain finishes #2 means he gets nothing, not that he'll pick up delegates. However, I do think that McCain will emerge as the clear winner because the big states he is picking up NY, NJ will put him solidly ahead. Huckabee's strategy is too win enough southern states to have a shot at the VP slot. The biggest issue for mccain is that the people who support huckabee are not likely to vote Republican (or vote at all) if mccain is the nominee. So more win for mccain/romney means more weakness and more problems for mccain in the general election.

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