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POLL: WSMV-TV TN Primary


WSMV-TV/Crawford Johnson & Northcott

Tennessee
Clinton 36, Obama 31... Huckabee 24, McCain 23, Romney 18

 

Comments
Anonymous:

Man. This is another one where there's just no way to try to smooth out the data points. Clinton either leads Obama by a sliver or, if you believe the one-day InsiderAdvantage poll from the 30th, doubles his lead. Seriously - there's a 23 point swing in Clinton's support, and a 17 point swing in the undecideds between these two polls.

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imp:

Notice how small this poll was. The last page states: "There were 811 respondents who participated, giving the poll a margin of error of +/- 5% at the 95% confidence level."

But for just looking at Democrats, or just Republicans, the respondent pool is half that size (n=402 D, n=409 R). That's the size we have for the Clinton v. Obama question. Pretty skimpy but it beats tea leaves :-)

Another contribution to variability: this poll finds 25% undecided and you rightly point out the size of the undecided population seems to bounce around wildly. That may be tied to the decisions made on which population to poll. Example: using a 5 point Likert scale vs. a 7 point Likert scale on qualifying questions could change how many people say they are likely voters.

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