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POLL: Zogby Indiana, North Carolina (4/30-5/1)


Zogby

North Carolina
n=668
Obama 50, Clinton 34

Indiana
n=680
Obama 42, Clinton 42

 

Comments
Gmann:

This is looking good for Obama.
I hope Clinton makes the 3am phone call to Obama on Wed. Conceding that her campaign is over

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jac13:

It's encouraging for an Obama supporter IF this is the John Zogby who hit PA on the nose, and not the one who blew California big time. Any of you polling experts see anything in the cross-tabs that might tell us how reliable this is? From what little I know it looked plausible to me, i.e. nothing jumped out at me, but I'm not that knowledgeable.

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kingsbridge77:

Zogby's brother asked Hillary to drop out and is campaigning for Obama in the pro-Obama website Huffington Post.

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jac13:

kingsbridge77 -

And you think that Jim Zogby, who has long been a public figure as leader of the Arab Anti-Defamation League, has pressured his brother to destroy his reputation -- and his business -- to make Obama look good? That is absurd. John Zogby was a fellow poli sci major with me in college, and his integrity was unimpeachable.

Zogby's polling has been off the mark in some primaries this year (although he picked up the late trend to Clinton in PA and hit the ultimate result on the head), but I suspect that it has more to to with methodology than bias.

This site is one of the few oases from the often bitter discourse we've seen on the web during this campaign, and for the most part provides objective, civil exchanges. You do this civil discussion a disservice by floating far-fetched conspiracy theories to explain results you don't like.

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Andrew_in_California:

The undecideds I'm sure will lean Clinton. I'm thinking she will carry Indiana by 5%.

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jac13:

Andrew -

Previous primary results -- at least most of them -- suggest you are correct. But there are a handful of new variables that could change that in Indiana: the Wright controversy and Obama's repudiation of him; the gas-tax holiday proposal (which has provided one of the few clear differences between the candidates); the Republicans and Independents (it's an open primary); and the Indiana endorsements Obama's gotten this week.

Is there a certain amount of wishful thinking here? Sure. Hillary's been up in most of the recent polling, but the only all-post-Wright poll shows it tied. We'll know more when we see which way the tracking goes tomorrow and Sunday.

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RS:

@jac13:
The Republicans and Independents no longer favor Senator Obama by wide margins after Operation Chaos - particularly Republicans.
Gas tax - The question is, how much weight does principle carry over the pocketbook? Anything that is even remotely perceived as reducing gas prices could carry the day over long-term solutions. ["I am against subsidies... except those that favor me!"]

Sure, I'd like Senator Obama to win IN. If not, I'd take a 5-point Clinton win rather than a 10-point Clinton win.

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boskop:

zogby. a name you cannot trust. so he got it almost right once. note that the percentages were off, the spread was accurate.

bottom line, he's an avid obama supporter and knows that indiana is obama's last stand. if he ties or comes in barely ahead, his candidacy teeters.

given that zogby is riding high on his recent PA call , i'd say the boy is priming the polling numbers to help sway media. i would put nothing past this weird human being.

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jac13:

RS -

Agreed (on the 5 points rather than 10). The gas-tax thing should prove interesting. Every politician who has commented (besides Clinton and McCain, that is) has opposed this, including Pelosi and Hoyer. I think if Obama gets traction with his principled stand on this, it could make a difference. It's the perfect issue for his "new politics" theme, because there's no way the idea ever gets off the ground; it's DOA in Congress. Are the voters sophisticated enough to see that? I suppose THAT is the $64,000 question.

boskop -

Assuming you're correct, for the sake of argument, how does it help Obama to inflate expectations in the polls? Doesn't that make him look bad if he doesn't measure up? That's the flaw I see in your theory.

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RS:

There go the Clintonites/istas again, moving the goal-posts:
"indiana is obama's last stand. if he ties or comes in barely ahead, his candidacy teeters."

Eh?

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Shadar:

"bottom line, he's an avid obama supporter and knows that indiana is obama's last stand. if he ties or comes in barely ahead, his candidacy teeters."

So many people here ignore expectations. People need to remember a few things.

If your polling is good and you don't live up to it then it's seen as a loss, even if you win.

Releasing a poll that says obama is +16 if it wasn't true is the last thing you'd want to do as an Obama supporter. You'd be FAR better off saying -16 because you know he'll do better than that.

Pollsters entire reputations and future profits are based on the accuracy of their polling. If a pollster is horribly off in their polling they won't get as many contracts.

And finally, if Obama is seen as ahead by 16 it could cause some of his voters to not bother voting as they "know" he'll win without em. It could also cause Hillary voters to poor out to save their candidate, ala NH. Not to mention it is always better to fight from the underdog position, people love the underdog.

The Wright controversy could end up helping Obama in IN/NC because he is looking like a victim now. Wright was so bombastic in his last interviews that he looked like he was going out of his way to screw Obama. Thus Obama looked completely justified in completely 100% disassociating himself from Wright. He couldn't have had a better excuse if it was all staged.

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Tybo:

"The Wright controversy could end up helping Obama in IN/NC because he is looking like a victim now. Wright was so bombastic in his last interviews that he looked like he was going out of his way to screw Obama."

a victim of his own bad choices?

Frankly I can't imagine any way that Wright works for him.

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Shadar:

"a victim of his own bad choices?

Frankly I can't imagine any way that Wright works for him."

I did not say what I meant clearly.

Clearly he would have been better if it never came up. What I meant to say was that the way the story is unfolding now it may allow him to regain a little of the ground he had lost due to the story. I think everyone who was going to be upset by the story already was, now that he cut himself away from Wright I think he will rebound a little bit in some voters minds.

So when I said the story could help him I meant more that the current trajectory will allow him to rebound slightly.

Personally I don't see why the story is a big deal. I know a lot of people that have said incredibly stupid, horrible things... it doesn't mean I believe them as well. I had a lifelong friend who had major problems and did some incredibly stupid things... should that reflect on me?

Wright was a person who meant a great deal to Obama. He brought Obama to Christ. Wright showed him how much good could be done in the community if you gave back. For twenty years he knew this man and yes he knew he was very passionate about his views and said a few incredibly crazy things, but he also did a lot of very great things. He didn't want to believe this man who had taught him so much was truly as crazy and wrong as so many people were saying. But then Wright came out and completely trashed everything he and so many other people had been working for. He finally accepted that Wright was not the same man he knew and he cut his ties to the man.

If Obama had only seen Wright 5 times in 20 years and those 5 times were the times he made crazy remarks of course Obama wouldn't have tried so hard not to disown him. But he knew so much more about the man that he couldn't in good conscious disown a man who had always been such a good force in his life... until that man showed his true colors and actually came at him as well.

This is a tragic story for Obama, not because of his campaign, but because he was forced to see that someone he respected and cared about was not the man he thought he was. So yes, among people looking for problems with Obama it's easy to use this... but if you look at it from Obama's point of view he acted as a good man would act, he gave his friend and mentor the benefit of the doubt as long as he could... but when all doubt was removed he cut all ties as he should have.

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Tybo:

Shadar , thanks for the response.

"Clearly he would have been better if it never came up. What I meant to say was that the way the story is unfolding now it may allow him to regain a little of the ground he had lost due to the story. I think everyone who was going to be upset by the story already was,"

I agree with you for the primary, but not the GE.
This story will have legs in the GE, particularly wrights "blacks think differently" comments.

"This is a tragic story for Obama, not because of his campaign, but because he was forced to see that someone he respected and cared about was not the man he thought he was. "

Obama is selling his judgement.
His judgement is now called into question.

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