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POLL: Zogby National (4/25-28)


Zogby Interactive (online)

National
n=7,653 likely voters, 4/25-28
w/ Ralph Nader and Bob Barr
Obama 45, McCain 42, Barr 3, Nader 1
McCain 44, Clinton 34, Barr 4, Nader 3

 

Comments
Shadar:

9% undecided in the Obama/McCain section and 15% in the Clinton/McCain section. What's up with that? That's a large gap, well outside the margin of error. Why are people so unsure? Is it people unsure if they'd vote for Nader or Clinton? Interesting that Nader does 2% better in that match-up. It's a small percentage but it's a sign that Clinton would lose more votes than Obama in the general to 3rd parties. She has a horrific 34% in that poll, but with such a huge undecided number it doesn't seem to mean much... couldn't have they pushed people a bit more than that?

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jsh1120:

Folks, I understand that it might be interesting to post Zogby's internet poll results for, if nothing else, their amusement value. But I'd suggest posting a VERY LARGE disclaimer for such results.

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J_from_Germany:

Zogby Interactive (ONLINE!) predicted Obama to win California by a margin of 13%...
So these results are entertaining at best.

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Ciccina:

Wait - I feel like I missed something important.

Online polls are valid?

I've always thought of them as the "go to our website and tell ABC News whether you think Brittney should get custody of her kids!" sort of thing.

So how does this work? Sorry if there's been a lot posted on this already - perhaps I just need a few links.

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Mark Lindeman:

Ciccina: this sort of online poll is based on a random sample of people who have been recruited -- or have volunteered -- to be part of ongoing surveys. In Zogby Interactive's case, I think it's sort of some of each (recruited and volunteered), but maybe you have more patience for parsing this than I do: http://interactive.zogby.com/

So it's not like the entertainment polls on those web sites, but it's not necessarily ready for prime time, either.

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Ciccina:

Good one, Mark....

Well, this has probably been chewed on before but the concept seems highly suspect to me.

First off, there's the self-reported demographic data... I'd think more people would be inclined to fudge these details online than on the phone. For example, when I would complete online polls I tended to self-identify as penniless and unemployed because I thought it would make me an unappealing target for marketers. Okay, now that I type that out it sounds kind of ridiculous, but there you have it. As for now, I just don't do online surveys anymore.

I guess I need to read the Zogby stuff... but I agree with the suggestion that unless The Experts feel very confident in the methodology of online polling, a disclaimer is probably warranted.

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Joseph E:

It would be nice to see this sort of polling done by a reputable outfit. If Nader does manage to get on the ballot, it could have an effect. On the other hand, third party candidates seem to show more support in polling than they do in the final results; few people want to "waste" their vote when it comes down to it.

Anyone else in favor of ranking your vote 1 thru 3? I'm ready to see a few more independent candidates.

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jsh1120:

As I understand Zogby's on-line polling methodology, it is based on volunteers, not recruits. He then uses a huge sample (and possibly weighting) to overcome the weakness.

Personally, I find it completely unacceptable. And the bizarre results the online sample has produced in the past suggest that judgment is correct.

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kingsbridge77:

John Zogby's brother, James Zogby is campaigning hard for Obama. Zogby recently asked Clinton to drop out of the race in the pro-Obama Huffington Post website. It's possible that John is trying to create the impression that Clinton is less electable than Obama, so that superdelegates can vote for Obama, thus keeping alive the chances for James to be named to a position such as member of Obama's cabinet .

James Zogby is also a senior analyst for Zogby Interactive.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/end-it-now_b_98265.html


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Kabindra:

Zogby was interesting on election night 2004. After Drudge had revealed the exit polls showing Kerry ahead in Ohio and Florida, as a Zogby subscriber I went to see what his previous night's polls were like. The raw data from his polls in print suggested that Kerry would lose. But then Zogby had crossed them out with red lines and had written in over them the exit poll results. Next day of course he stated that he had it right :)

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Kabindra:

Zogby was interesting on election night 2004. After Drudge had revealed the exit polls showing Kerry ahead in Ohio and Florida, as a Zogby subscriber I went to see what his previous night's polls were like. The raw data from his polls in print suggested that Kerry would lose. But then Zogby had crossed them out with red lines and had written in over them the exit poll results. Next day of course he stated that he had it right :)

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americaferreraisafatho:

well kingsbridge, what does your brother do? perhaps he should preclude you for certain endeavors. hmm, you seem to be the type that tries to link poeple with OTHER people's statements/actions. like the whole wright crap. by the way, on linking people with others' actions - why no attention to slick willy- you know the guy who perjured himself, and was inmpeached? Isn't that a little more severe than the mad rantings of a former pastor?


Anways, I think this poll has tapped into an underlying reality- Clinton WILL NEVER win in November. Since the only path for her is overturning the will of the people. That, once it is widely reported, will carry monumental consequences for her.

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kingsbridge77:

americaferreira, to answer your weird question, I don't have a brother.

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americaferreraisafatho:

what? you don't have a mother?

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boskop:

these kinds of posts are pretty typical of a certain kind of obama supporter. they yell and hope that by shouting down discussion they will some how magically make their candidate win.

i think it is very revealing of the kind of passion behind the first possible black president. but what they fail to comprehend is that this pre-electing process, grueling and un fair as it often is to both camps, is nevertheless essential is vetting the creature
we will make our next president.

when you think about how much more complex the world is today and how easy it is to pull the trigger on wmd, you have to be as sure as you can that this is not an exercise in evening the score at the expense of national health.

in fact, many people who have left obama's camp
have done so not because they see him as a black man. in fact, many were intrigued with the wonderful option of putting him forward. but we are trying to see through the icon of restitution and choose the most capable human being who can work through the daunting complexities of government, red tape and international special interests.

so excuse us, if this site tries to discuss who we believe is most adept at the job rather than
who we feel can settle old scores.

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