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POLL: Zogby National (8/29-30)


Zogby Poll
8/29-30/08; 2,020 LV, 2.2%
Mode: Internet

National
McCain 47, Obama 45
(8/24: Obama 46, McCain 44)

Obama 44, McCain 43, Barr 5, Nader 2
(8/24: Obama 45, McCain 42, Barr 4, Nader 1)

 

Comments
Robi:

I guess people will move on to this topic?

I still don't care about national polls. Electoral college is the only thing that matters in an election.

And for the love of GOD, no more pregnancy talk or conspiracy theories.

Palin sucks enough as a VP on issues that matter to have us spend time on this trivial issue.

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Robi:

BTW does it work like that? People continue discussion on whatever is the newest topic?? Someone let me know.

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vandrop:

Can Zogby expect anyone to take it seriously? I mean, I think it should get a clue that its method of polling is screwy when every single other legitimate poll shows Obama ahead by about 4 points.

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player:

This poll is probably accurate because Zogby mainly leans democrat. Its known that he is a huge fan of HRC and hubby Bill.

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Robi:

I don't know that much about Zogby so someone in detail give me the issues with its polling techniques please.

Thanks

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sjt22:

@ Player

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

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in2veep:

There is no way this poll is accurate. First gallup obama +6, Rasmussen obama+3, cbs obama +8, and plus its an internet poll. But guys i have a feeling this Palin pick is gonna cost heavily, i mean imagine you never new a single thing about a person, and now this is all your hearing= her high school daughter is pregnant, she is under investigation, and man there is a lot more bad things. The Dem's should just link this to Mccain's age and the possibility of her being President, and this race is over!

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saywhat90:

this poll is suspect. its a keep the tensions high poll. remember this is the same guy who gave kerry the win in 2004.

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Robi:

They talk about the pregnancy issue as well as the investigation as part of their campaign and they have done what McCain wants them to.

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Robi:

The previous comment should start with a big IF. Thank god Obama has smart people running his campaign.

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Uri:

You know, for a company that relies on internet polls (heh), Zogby should really remove all spam ads from their website.

Anyway, BS poll

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Robi:

ok someone PLEASE explain how these internet polls are conducted.

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Andrew_in_California:

This poll seems... bizzare.

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Dave:

@Robi

I was participating in the zogby online polls for a while. anybody who wants to can sign up.. therefore its not a random sample, and therefore it simply can't be accurate, no matter what john zogby is smoking.

every week or two, i received an email with a link to a survey on a web page. i always answered the same way, pretty much, so i probably didn't represent the small % of the population that actually changes its vote based on the whims of the day's news.

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John:

Zogby interactive uses an online invitation sample, and then weighs for region, party, age, race, religion, gender and education, but it is notoriously unreliable. For example in their state polling they had Obama up by 3 in Arizona and Barr taking 11% in NH. Using the 538 ratings for pollsters, Zogby Interactive comes 31st out 32 pollsters, with an error rating twice as high as almost any of the other polls including the Zogby phone poll.

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brambster:

The Zogby Interactive polls are quite likely the most widely disrespected polls out there.

They rely on voluntary respondents and then they weight them to a norm. I can't imagine that one can get a regularly accurate measurement from voluntary respondents unless your weighting technique was more predictive than the respondents themselves.

There's nothing to be learned from Zogby Interactive polls at all.

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Robi:

Does this website factor Zogby into their trends?

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John:

Yes, which was a matter of some discussion.

/blogs/how_we_choose_polls_to_plot_pa_1.html.

The second paragraph is a good explanation of Charles and Mark reasoning.

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Robi:

Sorry, but that link got me to a "File not found" page.

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John:

Sorry, this should be right

/blogs/how_we_choose_polls_to_plot_pa_1.html

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Robi:

But from what I'm hearing, Zogby uses an especially odd form of polling via internet invitation in which the sample is not random. Couldn't this be an exception because the circumstances are so extraordinary that no other pollster does such a method and thus not leaving a precedent for other polls to experience the same fate?

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John:

While you can make a good arguement for Zogby Interactive, it is hard to create fixed rules. Polls are never completely random due to non-respondents, that is who actually picks up the phone. Pollsters just hope that this does not skew samples too much.
There are any number of ways that the sample will not be completely random, such as the day of polling or the time of polling. There is an interesting debate about whether to include cell phone only users.
/blogs/aapor_2008_jeff_jones_on_gallu.html

Polls used to be all by live interviewers but now a number are automated. The problem is when you omit one pollster for not having a random enough sample then where do you stop?
Some new ideas are good even if other pollster are not using them. Unfortunately the zogby interactive poll is not one of them.

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thoughtful:

By the very nature of the Internet this is unlikely to be a representative poll and is of no snapshot value.

Outlier.

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djneedle83:

two words..

Zogby sucks...

Let's face it they are not legitimate pollster in this election cycle. Going 1 for 10 doesn't make you a reliant polling firm.

Stick to SurveyUsa/Rasmussen/Qunnipiac/PPP for the state polls.

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jamesia:

It's an internet poll. That's the same type of poll that showed Ron Paul winning, and we all know how that turned out. Zogby has been the opposite of many polls for a while. Rasmussen has Obama up, and normally they show a closer race than their previous poll. This Zogby one makes no sense.

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CaptainJJack:

It is obvious that this Poll is skewed by the independent voters. No other poll has as high percentage of independents.

My guess is that Zogby gets more of the extremes. So, even though the demographic weights represent the same weights expected in the elections, they are not representative of their demographic.

This will cause a lot more variance in Zogby's results than the other polls because in the other polls people do not self select. This variance can go either way depending on the makeup of the population who sign up.

So, a lot depends on who elects to sign up for selection by Zogby.

Still, when asked who they would vote for head to head, I suspect the most of the Barr people go for McCain and most of the Nader people go for Obama.

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jsh1120:

Zogby strikes again. While I understand this site's unwillingness to make judgments about the quality of various polling organizations' work, adding a patina of legitimacy to Zogby's internet polls by citing them here is, I suspect, a difficult decision.

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thoughtful:

As I forecast yesterday Obama goes over 50% with the Rasmusson tracker for the first time!

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008".

I am 95% confident that the Gallup tracker goes over 50% as well today (51%-42% Fct)!

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@ CaptainJJack:

That's intriguing (no, seriously). Couldn't Zogby use some sort of benchmarking technique to assess whether their results are on target or not? Are there one or more questions - simple, perhaps apolitical questions - one could include in the survey to judge whether the respondent is "extreme" compared to his or her demographic norm / peers? Number of hours spent online, perhaps? Voting history and/or support for third-party candidates? Amount of money / volunteering for campaigns in this or previous cycles? What would be the hallmark(s) of a respondent who is not exemplary of his/her larger group?

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@thoughtful: congratulations on your prediction...here is another line from Rassmussen:

"Obama has strengthened his support among Democrats and now attracts the vote from 85% of those within his party."

It indeed looks like the Democratic convention or the Palin pick or both have rallied Democrats to their candidate. This trend is being validated now in the CNN/ORC (forget the horserace number in this poll), CBS, and Rassmussen polls.

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Brutus1_:

Thoughtful-

Exactly. The Palin mess is gonna cost mccain heavily. I almost feel bad for him. Almost.

McCain could have picked literally anyone else in the party and it would have been better - except for bush and his cronies. Anyways, have fun in the fall repubs.

Although the Obama campaign won't touch the Palin mess, I will. The reason Palin's daughter's pregnancy is an issue is that Palin has (in line with idiotic right wing thinking) advocated "abstinence only" programs instead of comprehensive sex-ed. Well, when you can't even convince your own daughter to not have sex, then you have a serious problem with your stance. Perhaps if she had talked to her about contraception instead of using the "praying nothing happens" method, this may have been avoided.

In any case a "social conservative" with a pregnant high-schooler is a poor example at best.

In addition, Palin's extreme views on abortion add to her lack of mental stability on these issues. If you think that a 14 year old girl who is violently raped and beaten should have to carry the resulting pregnancy to term - well, then you are absolutely insane.

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Brutus1_:

Ooo, more bad news for mccain...yikes.


"Prediction Market Starts Betting That Palin Will Withdraw From Ticket"


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/prediction-market-starts_n_123136.html

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thoughtful:

These polls have got nothing to do with Palin. They have everything to do with the brilliantly executed Democratic Convention.

Hillary Clinton was responsible for the single largest one day contribution on the trackers due to her speech. Bill Clinton solidified the base on Wednesday. Barrack Obama annointed by Al Gore gave us a glimpse of President style Obama with his speech which basically answered any questions that the undecided in the partymay have had.

There was a small Palin hiccup with Friday and saturday polling.

If Palin is a negative we will see that as the week goes on. Remember I am expecting a 2% net Dip from Sunday night with this Repub Convention.

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zotz:

The WP reports today Palin lobbied for and received $27 million in federal earmarks for Wasilla when she was mayor. So much for the crusading reformer label!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/01/AR2008090103148.html?nav=hcmodule

And we haven't even begun discussing Palin's membership in the secessionist Alaskan Independance Party. We are getting multiple scandals piled on top of each other. MSM can't keep up with it! WOW!!
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/members-of-frin.html

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thoughtful:

Brutus1_

Some thought McCain had hit a grandslam, this is more and more looking like he's hit into a triple play!

But this hasn't played in the polls yet! Just the 2% initial Palin bump, solidifying party base.

I think that it is more likely, though highly unlikely, McCain withdraws with Palin, but they will have to be quick. Look for signs of panic and news management getting out of hand!

We might get a Romney/Pawlenty pinch hitting ticket, it could degenerate into farce?

Last week I was convinced that Obama's numbers could go better than Rick Generic Democrat and maybe they will.

The only poll that matters though is in November and you have to get your guys out to vote. No self inflicted wounds, Extraordinary though!

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DocnTN:

NEW HOTLINE/FD POLL
Obama 48 McCain 39 (8/18-8/24 Obama 44, McCain 40)

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KipTin:

Enough of this Palin innuendo. The Rasmussen daily results have little to do with Palin:

"Despite all the national attention that has been focused on Sarah Palin, public perceptions of the Alaska Governor have changed little in the last few days. She is still viewed favorably by just over half of all voters."

Instead... "Obama has strengthened his support among Democrats and now attracts the vote from 85% of those within his party...Polling released earlier today showed that the number of Republicans in the country increased slightly during August, but Democrats still have a nearly six point advantage."

See what statistics can tell ya?

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Brutus1_:

Wow, more idiotic "anaylsis".....

If she is viewed favorably by only half the people, what do you think the other half think about her, genius?

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zotz:

Kiptin-
Do you think that "just over half of all voters" know about THIS story?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/02/uselections2008.republicans20085?gusrc=rss&feed=worldnews

Let's see you spin that!

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Brutus1_:

thoughtful-

Yes, the palin/mccain combo is the gift that keeps on giving.........

Yes, the bounce was mostly from obama (& the convention), but the most recent uptick is from pissed off moderate women and others who are dumbfounded by the palin pick. She is on the news everyday with another scandal.

What I find especially funny is that the trolls on this board who continually spread lies were parroting the repub line about how the left is attacking palin because they were "afraid" of her. Ummm no, the left, and others, are attacking Palin because she is grossly unqualified and intellectually stunted. Period. Everyone, even many conservatives, know this. Only people with poo for brains try and compare Palin's record with Obama's.

Now, the scandals are breaking since mccain never even vetted her.....the guy is off his rocker (literally).


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KipTin:

OK... "genius" Brutus1--

Today Palin is viewed favorably by 52% (31% very favorable), and Obama is viewed favorably by 58% (38% very favorable). And on August 4 (only one month ago) Obama was 51% favorable (30% very favorable).

Now look at the other end of the rating:
Palin 36% unfavorable (16% very unfavorable)
Obama 41% unfavorable (26% very unfavorable)

So "the other half" apparently dislike Obama more than Palin.

The only "idiotic analysis" is that of Brutus1 who chooses to insult rather than look at the data.

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Brutus1_:

"Another ad-hoc element to the Palin pick is the curious defense of her foreign policy credentials. Republicans and Cindy McCain have mentioned that she understands national security issues in part because she is governor of Alaska, whose borders nearly touch Russia's. A day and a half ago, I asked the campaign for an example of her dealings with Russia or the Russians. I'm still waiting. Again, maybe there's a bad-spin explanation here: They're swamped and are working to get back to me. Or maybe they just made the claim in haste without checking it."


- Good lord, she is getting shredded. As I predicted a couple threads back, she may not last longer than Gustav. I see Romney coming in for her in about two days. Although, he might have the sense to let mccain crash and burn this time around, and wait til '12 to make a move. Who is left? Pawlenty? Who is dumb enough to take a place on the ticket now? Maybe the repubs will just ride it out, and see what happens. That would be too funny.....

Please, oh please Lord, let palin debate biden. Please, I'll never ask for anything again!

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Brutus1_:

How dumb can a human be? I guess that was just answered.

Yes, people vote for Mccain because they don't like Obama. That is a fact, troll.

Now, *some* people are voting for Obama/Biden because they don't like Palin.

Understand? Good God...time for someone to go back to the local juco......

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KipTin:

Hey, zotz... I do not need to spin anything. The facts are that Palin belonged to the Alaska Independent party in 1994. This party is associated with the Constitution Party at the national level. One third of Alaska voters now belong to this party. One Governor was elected as member of this party. The voter affiliation in Alaska is in order of largest number of ID: Unaffiliated, Republicans, Independent, Democrat.

Way too many people do not know about Alaska culture. It is the last "hinterland/frontier" of the U.S. and can be compared to the Pacific Northwest just over a 100 years ago in that context.

P.S. The Obamanation is working overtime to tie Palin to a so-called "radical" organization but are conveniently forgetting Obama's long time association with Black Liberation Theology (Pastor Wright) and an unrepentant domestic terrorist.

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KipTin:

And zotz... regarding "earmarks"--- As the article pointed out, Obama and Biden also have a record of bringing home the bacon aka "earmarks."

It looks like any slam against Palin only opens up an opportunity to hit Obama and/or Biden. It cuts both ways.

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zotz:

How interesting!
Secession from the United States is not radical? Are you a Southerner by any chance?

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thoughtful:

Zotz brings to our attention the seperatist news piece in the highly respected, though left of centre British Guardian newspaper.

You know this is an allegation of Treason in an elected official! Kiptin tries to spin it, as this is local Alaska politics, we are trying to elect a Vice President of the USA!

@Brutus1_ is highlighting a pandora box of disclosures almost hitting MSM by the hour. Kos with their irresponsible reporting has done a great disservice, they should leave the stuff they have been running to the the National Enquirer. None of this is reflected in the polls!

I wrote a very long discourse on McCain's vett and non vett this morning. If FOX News who came very close last night with reporting the Fake Pregnancy Story, start running the more relevant political stuff, playing the audio tapes on Troopergate and get into these other stories then McCain/Palin is dead before tomorrow night.

McCain has lost the experience, judgement, and fit to lead cards! McCain will be seen as throwing away an election that the Repubs could have won.

The base and power brokers hate McCain he's never been one of them, he's unpredictable, You can just about sense Brit Hume & Co turning on McCain. Much as these guys don't like Obama they at least see him as sensible. pragmatic and most of all SANE!

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Robi:

Brutus' favorite word is officially "Troll".

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Stillow:

The media has been trying to define Palin on their terms. Tomorrow night she will get the national stage and she will present herself. I don't know how many of you are old enough to remember how the press treated Reagan i nthe late 70's leading up to his campaign....but they nearly destoryed him. Palin will need to do the same thing he did and basically show the ability tomorrow night to connect. She has to connect like a Reagan or Clinton. She needs to up and over the media and directly tothe people. If she stumbles around tomorrow, comes of disconnected or has a poor delivery she is finished. She doesn't have the power to take o nthe media at this point, so unless she can go aroudn them and directly to the people the way Reagain did, she is toast. We'll see tomorrow night. She defiantely needs a knock your socks off speech tomorrow. First impressions are vital in politics and tomorrow night will be her first time i nthe national spotlight with full coverage.....

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KipTin:

Well, zotz... You apparently have only reacted to the blog headlines rather than doing any in depth reading of the Alaska Independent or Constitutional Party platforms. I will not "educate" you here because the FACTS are readily available on the internet.

And clueless is associating me with any party or region just because I offered factual information about the AIP and Alaska voter registration.

Also clueless is the implied ignorant association of Alaskans with Southerners.

You have proven by your words (and insults)that you indeed have membership in the Obamanation.

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Robi:

I like speeches and everything (Obama supporter) but, because I like to think myself as an informed voter, I'm really looking forward to the debates.

My opinions are practically formed about everyone (except Palin 100% who is more around 70%). But the debates will affect the remaining voters I believe.

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Robi:

Oh but I'm voting for Obama just so everyone knows and takes all my opinions with a grain of salt.

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zotz:

Kiptin-
That was a non-denial denial. Can I infer that you ARE a Southerner that believes secession from the USA is not radical?

Straight answer this time please!

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KipTin:

What does it matter where I live? It is none of your damn business. I am not running for political office.

Now you can ask if I am a Westerner-- The idea that a state should have control of public lands within it borders (AIP) will play very well in the Western States where most of the pubic lands are located.

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Brutus1_:

Pathetic repubs, it is over for Palin. Let's hope you clowns keep her on as the veep pick. LOL!!

http://www.washingtonindependent.com/3671/the-reform-candidate


Another week, another Frank Luntz/AARP focus group of undecided voters--this one in Minneapolis and with some bad news for John McCain: they don't like the choice of Sarah Palin for vice president. Only one person said Palin made him more likely to vote for McCain; about half the 25-member group raised their hands when asked if Palin made them less likely to vote for McCain. They had a negative impression of Palin by a 2-1 margin."


http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/08/focusedthe_sequel.html

Go Palin Go!!

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Stillow:

The attacks on palin are astonishing. Faking pregnancies, etc? The left is setting itself up for the biggest backlash we've ever seen. I just heard a news report trashign the names she gave her kids.....I mean this is just getting "insane". I knew the left and media were scared of her, but you guys are setting yourselves up for a huge backlash of th likes we have never seen in politics before.
You guys are digging your own grave in 2008. This is ten times worse than Clarance Thomas. This is 20 times worse than the Wellstone funeral. You guys are literally out of control, fake pregnancies, trashing her daughter, slamming the names of her kids....you guys are engaging in personal attacks on a successful woman.....
I guess fear makes you do desperate things.

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faithhopelove:

I currently live in a western state, and I have lived in WA, OR, CA, AZ, and CO. I have a co-worker who is from AK.

A comment that KipTin made earlier strikes me as true (!)--"too many people do not know about Alaska culture." AK is a distant and unique place. It is for this reason that I doubt that Palin will help McCain in any states outside of AK--including western states.

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moheroy:

As to the AIP,

Y;all clearly know nothing about Alaska, or Hawaii, or even the Pacific Northwest if you think this is a serious radical party. Succession is not a real issue it is just an identity issue for a region that is very isolated from the rest of the country.

And yes I am a southerner, but we learned our lesson, I think if anyone tries to secede, I think we should burn their capital to the ground. After all it is only fair

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zotz:

Don't cuss or I'll report you again!
I'm from CA, what's the big secret? Why are you so sensitive about it?

Also, about this-
"The idea that a state should have control of public lands within it borders (AIP) will play very well in the Western States where most of the pubic lands are located."

What I am hearing is that you think secession is OK but National Parks are NOT OK. And are you also opposed to military bases? They are on federally controlled land you know.

Do you really think that these are moderate positions? I don't want to call you a name but I think most people, even most Republicans would call these views extremist.


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zotz:

My previous post was for KipTin. Sorry I didn't make that clear.

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

The issue with Palin is that unlike Reagan, Clinton etc she never sought national office and just is not prepared, trained or qualified for it in any way shape or form. No matter how her beliefs reflect, there are surely better qualified Republicans, more knowledgeable etc.

No doubt Palin can handle herself. No doubt she has a vision of Alaska, but does she have a vision for the rest of the USA. Reagan did, Clinton did but these were guys spent years in preparation and had won their parties nominations in the poll.
Personally I think she will come out on top of Biden in a debate.
The convention thing is such a huge ask, and really does say volumes about the recklessness and unreliability of John McCain.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

I agree with you partially. But there's something about palin that has the left scared to death. They are lashing out with vicious personal attacks. From minute 1 they are tryign to destory her. Even this morning on MSNBC it was brought up that she may be sympotehtic to the NAZI cause. I mean the left is absolutely going crazy. The media is attmpting to destory her....they are all dragging a 17 yr old kid into this....we are reaching new lows among the media and the left in watching there attacks on palin. I'm telling you right now, after tomorrow night I think the backlash starts....and it will be huge. I think she comes out tomorrow night and delivers a great speech, the people can see for themselves....if the left and media keep this up Obama is not only goign to lose, but lose big. You can disagree with me, but these vicious personal attacks are indeed a new low in this country and the people will not accept them. I understand that a self made conservative woman scares the media and the left, but do go the route they are taking in attacking her is disgusting. It will backfire and backfire BIG.
Slamming her kids, now calling he rNazi, etc, etc....

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KipTin:

Yes... thoughful... just as there "are surely better qualified" Democrats than Obama, more knowledgeable, etc. who has no executive experience and minimal time in the U.S. Senate.

Except that Palin is extraordinarily more knowledgeable in energy issues than Obama. Her vision for Alaska involves the rest of the USA (e.g. natural gas pipeline, domestic oil supplies, natural resources, employment, etc.) She does not need over 200 advisors to tell her what to think and say.

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Brutus1_:

This is, perhaps, the beatdown of the year, nay, century, of republican trolls like stillow/kiptin, etc.

Link provided at the end.

You want to talk QUALIFICATIONS???

1980 - 1984

Obama: B.A. in political science with a specialization in international relations from Columbia University.

Palin: Wasilla High School, captain of the state-champion basketball team. Miss Wasilla, runner-up in the Miss Alaska pageant, also Miss Congeniality, although that is now disputed.

Him: Ivy League degree.
Her: Tiara.

1985 - 1990

Obama: moved to Chicago; became a community organizer as director of the Developing Communities Project (DCP), a church-based community organization on Chicago's far South Side. During his three years as the DCP's director, its staff grew from 1 to 13 and its annual budget grew from $70,000 to $400,000, with accomplishments including helping set up a job training program, a college preparatory tutoring program, and a tenants' rights organization.

Moved to Boston to attend Harvard Law School. Selected as an editor and then elected president of the Harvard Law Review, a full-time volunteer position functioning as editor-in-chief and supervising the law review's staff of 80 editors.

Palin: Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism, with a minor in political science from the University of Idaho. Brief stint as a sports reporter for local Anchorage television stations; left to join her husband in commercial fishing.

Him: Sterling Legal Education.
Her: Sportscaster.


1991 - 1995

Obama: Graduated Magna Cum Laude from Harvard Law School; received contract and advance to write a book ("Dreams from my Father") as well as a fellowship at the University of Chicago Law School. Directed the Illinois Project Vote from April to October 1992, a voter registration drive with a staff of 10 and 700 volunteers that achieved its goal of registering 150,000 of 400,000 unregistered African Americans in the state, leading Crain's Chicago Business to name Obama to its 1993 list of "40 under Forty" powers to be. Appointed as a Lecturer in constitutional law at the University of Chicago. Joined Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland, a 12-attorney law firm specializing in civil rights litigation and neighborhood economic development. Active in several community organizations, usually as a board member.

Palin: member of the Alasaka Independence Party which advocates "Alaska First". Elected to Wasilla city council.

Him: Expert on our nation's fundamental legal principles.

Her: Plotted to leave the Union; thinks Pledge of Allegiance was written by our founding fathers, doesn't know what a Vice President does.

1996 - 2000

Obama: Promoted to Senior Lecturer in Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago Law School. Elected to the Illinois Senate. Sponsored more than 800 bills. In 2000, lost a Democratic primary run for the U.S. House of Representatives to four-term incumbent Bobby Rush by a margin of two to one.

Palin: elected as mayor of Wasilla (population 5,470), defeating the incumbent by a total of 616 votes to 413. Town budget, $8 million (3 millionths of the Federal budget), approximately 100 employees. Reduced property taxes but increased sales taxes. Fired the Wasilla police chief, citing a failure to support her administration. (He then sued Palin on the grounds that he was fired because he supported the campaign of Palin's opponent, but his suit was dismissed when the judge ruled that Palin had the right under state law to fire city employees, even for political reasons.) Hired a DC lobbyist to bring $27 million in earmarks to the city. Wasilla had zero debt when she entered office but she left it with indebtedness of over $22 million, including $15 million-plus for construction of a hockey center which was built on a piece of property that the city didn’t even have clear title to, a matter that is still in litigation. Attempted to ban books from the city library.

Him: Sponsored 800 bills.
Her: Swayed 616 voters.


2001 - 2004

Obama: Reelected in 2002 and became chairman of the Illinois Senate's Health and Human Services Committee.

Publicly spoke out against the invasion of Iraq BEFORE the congressional authorization in 2002, and then again before the actual invasion in 2003.

Wrote and delivered the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.

November 2004: elected to the US Senate, receiving over 3.5 million votes, more than 70% of total.

Palin: elected president of the Alaska Conference of Mayors. Unsuccessful bid for lieutenant governor, coming in second in a five-way race in the Republican primary, receiving 19,000 votes. Appointed to the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, served as chairman from 2003 to 2004 and also served as Ethics Supervisor. Resigned in protest over the "lack of ethics" of fellow Republican members. Exposed the state Republican Party's chairman, Randy Ruedrich, for doing party work on public time and working closely with a company he was supposed to be regulating. Director of Ted Stevens' 527 group.

Him: Demonstrated the wisdom to oppose the Iraq folly before it even began.

Her: Hasn't "really thought much about Iraq" - despite the fact that 17 Alaskans have died there

2005 to present

Obama: Sworn in as the fifth-ever African-American U.S. senator. Worked with Republican Senator Lugar to author and implement a program to locate and dismantle stray Russian WMD's. Designated by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid as the party's point man on ethics. Worked with Russ Feingold to pass a major ethics/lobbying reform bill. Cosponsored, with John McCain, the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act. Called for increased fuel efficiency standards (3 percent every year for 15 years). Assignments on the Senate Committees for Foreign Relations, Veterans' Affairs, and Homeland Security. Chairman of the Senate's subcommittee on European Affairs. As a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, made official trips to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. Waged a tremendous battle to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Currently manages 2,500 campaign employees and a budget of $40-$50 million/month.

Palin: 2005: Board member, Valley Hospital Association, which runs the Mat-Su Regional Medical Center in Wasilla.

Became youngest and first female Governor of Alaska, taking office in December, 2006. Received 114,600 votes. The population of Alaska is 683,478 and more than 50% of the state budget comes from oil revenues, not taxes as in other states. Gross State Product: $44 billion (including the oil revenue). Ranking 45 of 50.
Auctioned off the Governor's jet on eBay. Took on fellow-Republican Senator Ted Stevens to come clean about the federal investigation into his financial dealings. Promoted oil and natural gas resource development in Alaska. Helped pass a tax increase on oil company profits. Formed a sub-cabinet group of advisers to address climate change but does not accept that it is man-made. Objected to listing polar bears as an endangered species because it might hurt oil and gas development in the bears' habitat. Was for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it. However, Alaska kept the federal money. Denied her daughter was pregnant before she confirmed it. Supported abstinence-only education. Currently under a bipartisan investigation for abuse of power for dismissing Alaska's Public Safety Commissioner. Commander-in-Chief of the Alaska National Guard, but has played no role in national defense activities, even when they involve the Alaska National Guard. (The entire operation is under federal control, and the governor is not briefed on situations.)

Obtained her first passport in 2007 to perform visits to the Alaska National Guard in Kuwait and Germany. (Foreign experience so limited that a stopover in Ireland listed on her resume.)

Him: Impressive figure on the national stage who knows how Congress works and is engaged with foreign policy issues.

Her: small state governor for 21 months; "next to Russia", but that is just 1 of the 190 countries in the world she has never been to.


Conclusion: the word "executive" is not some kind of magic force multiplier when placed in front of the word "experience". Especially when that "executive experience" is of less than 700,000 people, the approximate size of Fort Worth, Texas.


____________________

Brutus1_:

Here is the link:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/2/1613/27485/447/581295


__________________________________________

Only a complete idiot would claim Palin has "more experience on energy issues" than Obama. You mean because she wants to "drill here drill now"?? ROTFLMAO!! Good one! Were any of you trolls awake during science class? Did you even take science in junior high? Good grief. Oil is a LIMITED resource. Every economist has stated that more drilling will not affect gas prices for another decade, and even then it may only reduce it by a dime a gallon in a best case scenario. Are you repub trolls really THAT stupid??

____________________

faithhopelove:

I agree with Obama and Stillow that "personal attacks"--especially against a candidate's family--should be off-limits. The focus should be on a candidate's positions.

One of Palin's most staunchly held positions is that abortion should be illegal, even in cases of rape and incest. This position has energized many conservative evangelicals; however, it is not held by the majority of Americans. The majority of Americans have at least some moral reservations about abortion, but do not believe that all abortions should be made illegal. See:
http://www.pollingreport.com/abortion.htm

More problematic for the McCain-Palin ticket is the fact that the swing states of NH, NV, CO, FL, WI, IA, MN, NM, MI, VA, MT, GA, OH, PA, and NC are more pro-choice than pro-life. (ND is evenly split.) See:
http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/50StateAbortion0805SortedbyProChoice.htm

NH has been McCain's best bet to flip a Kerry state; Palin may hurt him there, however, as NH is the 4th most pro-choice state in the country. Only in the states of MO and IN (which were only second-tier pick-up opportunities for Obama) does it seem likely that Palin's views on abortion help McCain. (Anecdotally, Palin helped McCain draw his biggest crowd ever in MO the other day.)

The poll to which I have linked is also a reminder that FL is not a typical southern state. Biden is campaigning there today.

McCain's top-tier pick-up opportunity remains NH; Obama's top-tier pick-up opportunities are IA, CO, NM, NV, MT, OH, VA, NC, and FL.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Stillow

With regards to Palin she frightens me just as much in fact more than McCain does. But I'd rather attack the ticket on the issues.

There are some very stupid people at either end of the political spectrum.

The right would like nothing better than have the left to blame or even pretend the left have made up these stories about Palin.

McCain simply would not pick Romney, he has himself to blame! He wanted Joe Lieberman (sic) but chickened out.

Unfortunately, there are people, on either side of the debate not addressing the issues and beliefs of the candidates and what the candidates stands for.

As i say I can not see other than on the so called corruption thing a difference politically between Cheney and Palin. Not much between Bush and McCain on the economy, National Security etc.

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KipTin:

I agree with Stillow... why all the hype against Palin if she is not a threat? False rumors about Palin's new son, obsession with her 17-year old daughter's pregnancy, accusations of Palin being a secessionist and Nazi-sympathizer.

By the way, Obama addressed his experience in comparison to Palin... and stepped right into it-- Chicago Sun-Times (Lynn Sweet)"Obama tells CNN's Anderson Cooper on "360" that running his campaign counts as executive experience."--

Barack Obama told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Monday's edition of "360" that he has more executive experience than Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. He compares his national campaign organization to Palin's stint as a mayor of a small town and IGNORES (my emphasis) that she is a governor.

On CNN's "360" Obama "also countered critics who suggest that he has less executive experience in this situation compared to Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin saying, "...my understanding is, is that Governor Sarah Palin's town of Wasilla has, I think, 50 employees. We have got 2,500 in this campaign. I think their budget is maybe $12 million a year. You know, we have a budget of about three times that just for the month. So, I think that our ability to manage large systems and to execute, I think, has been made clear over the last couple of years.

McCain campaign response--
"For Barack Obama to argue that he's experienced enough to be president because he's running for president is desperate circular logic and it's laughable. It is a testament to Barack Obama's inexperience and failing qualifications that he would stoop to passing off his candidacy as comparable to Governor Sarah Palin's executive experience managing a budget of over 10 billion dollar dollars, and more than 24,000 employees." ---Tucker Bounds, spokesman John McCain 2008

____________________

Stillow:

@faithhopelove

The abortion issue will not turn off voters. Reagan was staunchly pro life and last time I checked, he won quit eeasily, twice. The first Bush pro life, W pro life, all of whom won with that position. I think the left assumes there are more hardcore pro choicers than there actually are, based on hisory, i don't think being pro life hurts.

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Brutus1_:

Ironically, by picking a woman to be on his ticket, Mccain reinforces his misogynistic qualities. She is obviously not qualified and was only picked because of her gender. So Mccain's opinion of women voters (and especially women Hillary voters) is that "see, here is a woman, vote for me now, you brain dead fools". Never mind that Palin is socially right wing, including anti-abortion on all counts. Does McCain really think that women are that stupid?? Apparently so.

Taking this into account with his numerous "jokes" he has made about rape, lesbians, Chelsea Clinton, and wife-beating, and couple that with his numerous adulterous affairs and how he treats his current wife, and you get a particularly harsh insight into the soul of this man. He hates women. Period.

I'm still wondering why a "firm handshake" would require a cast like the one Cindy is sporting right now.

This guy is scary - and just plain unstable.

____________________

KipTin:

So if the "left" did not make up these stories... who did? It certainly was not the "right." Did you notice that the authors of these rumor blogs (Huffington Post, Andrew Sullivan, Daily Kos, etc.) are in fact Obama supporters... aka "left?"
----------

Having pro-choice beliefs is not a reason not to support a candidate. How do you explain Democratic Senator Bob Casey in PA, for example? There is no move by Palin or McCain to overturn federal abortion rights. Just today the GOP Utah Governor says the trend is now to take religion out of the political arena.
-----------

Both candidates are strong state rights (federalism) candidates in contrast to Obama/Biden who want to expand the federal government. That is where the debate really is.

____________________

Brutus1_:

Obama is a man who has spent his adult life thinking serious thoughts about serious issues and having serious conversations about them with other serious, well-informed people; while Palin quite as clearly has done none of those things. He was the president of the Harvard Law Review; she was the point guard on her high school basketball team. She went to the University of Idaho for her undergraduate (and only) degree in journalism (!), while he excelled at Columbia and then Harvard. He taught Constitutional Law at the prestigious University of Chicago Law School, and she was Miss Alaska. He has passed all sorts of legislation in the Illinois legislature and the Senate the last 10 years. She occupied herself as governor for the past 1.5 years by trying to get her ex-brother-in-law fired from a state trooper position and is currently under investigation because of it. While Obama has inspired and mobilized millions of people here and around the world, she is the governor of a state with less than 700,000 people (about the same number as Fort Worth, Texas) who has no foreign policy experience and is on a ticket with a man who expiration date is coming up fast.

Obama has surrounded himself in his campaign with world-class people; and though I am doubtless an elitist and snob for saying so, I doubt that she has even met a half-dozen world-class people in her lifetime.

While Obama might do things as President that I believe are bad for the country, I am confident that he would surround himself with experienced, informed, competent advisors and that he would make no world-destroying blunders. I cannot say the same about Palin and, in view of what this choice reveals about McCain’s character and judgment, I cannot say the same of him either.


The Palin pick says much more about McCain than it does about Palin (all it says about her is that she didn't have the good sense to turn it down). What it says about McCain is that he is more interested in politics than policy, more interested in campaigning than governing, tactical when he should be strategic, and reckless when he should be considered.

He is as big a gamble as president as Palin is as vice-president. This decision was about gut, about politics, about cynicism, and about vanity. It's Bushism metastasized.


____________________

KipTin:

There you go... Brutus1 spreading slime about McCain and feeding a rumor about Cindy McCain's wrist (even though video tape shows how she was injured.) Is not this guy also from the "left?"

____________________

thoughtful:

@kiptin/Undecided

You are so annoying. Sarah Palin has been tapped to be the Republican Party's nominee as Vice President of the United States. No one who is impartial can say she is qualified to do the job.

We live in a democracy. As much as you may be in denial, the qualification for election to nomination and to office are ELECTIONS.

In the most contested election in Democratic Party history Barrack Obama won the Presidential nomination for the Democratic Party. End of story.

Attack the man on the policy issues, his espoused beliefs, his legislative track record, his vision of America.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

I admire your dedicated to your side, but you have a classic case of denial. There are a lot of fundamental reasons the media and the left are so scared of someone like palin....and it has nothign to do with some "issues" your side is rasing....look at this loon brutus1 on here or voice99, or whatever he calls himself that day....that is the new look of the left....people like Olberman who have primetime slots are acting more liek this guy.....a backlash is coming o nthe left....trust me,the attacks on palin will backfire......the need to destory her is great by the media and the left for fundamental reasons, because she is an example of anti liberalism....a success story from a female who made it without any g'ment programs....the whole liberal ideaology teaches us we cannot make it, we cannot be successful without the g'ments help...so this goes beyond trashing her kids, calling her a Nazi, etc....its about desotrying a symbol of success as a conservative.
I have "never" seen the media or left go after someone liek this....an that includes Reagan who they dragged thru the mud and brutally assaulted.

____________________

zotz:

The question should be how relevant is Palin's "executive experience" to the economic and foreign policy challenges faced by the United States. We are talking about the future of the most powerful nation on earth.
Tucker Bounds has got his priorites BASS AKWARDS! If his criteria was correct Palin would be more qualified to be president than McCain!

BTW- Gallup has Obama's lead back up to 8 points with him crossing the 50% barrier for the first time in the campaign.

____________________

KipTin:

Actually, while Obama was teaching constitutional law and buddying around with Ayers, Palin spent two terms on city council, and two terms as Mayor of Wasilla.

Oh, and you forgot the top item on Obama's resume that he emphasizes ad nauseum... He was a "community organizer."

____________________

thoughtful:

Gallup Daily: Obama Hits 50% for First TimeLeads McCain by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%

____________________

Stillow:

Goody, Obama finally got his bounce!

____________________

KipTin:

Hilarious. How relevant is "executive" experience to economic and foreign policy challenges? Well, governor of a state IS economic challenges. And Palin has much expertise on energy issues. Foreign policy... Palin has not much less experience than Obama who no one thinks is an expert there. Obama is depending on OTHERS. And last I looked McCain (not Palin) is in the Number ONE slot... and McCain has decades of foreign policy experience.

P.S. If by chance Palin becomes President, then she will also depend on OTHERS (including a new VP) just like Obama plans to do now.

Experience is a no win argument for Obamanation.

____________________

Tybo:

"The question should be how relevant is Palin's "executive experience" to the economic and foreign policy challenges faced by the United States. "

no the question should be how relevant is Obama, the presidential's nominee experience to the economic and foreign policy challenges faced by the US.

and the answer is "NOT AT ALL"

____________________

zotz:

KipTin-
You are right. For a small town mayor to get $27 million in federal earmarks is pretty special! I wonder why McCain did not include that when speaking about her acheivements.

____________________

KipTin:

Oh, darn. I was hoping the Gallup Poll showed differently (less) than Rasmussen so I could kick everyone's behind who always dismiss the Rasmussen poll as biased. Well, I am sure I will get such a chance in the future. Two months to go.

____________________

Stillow:

You know what a curious # will be, is how many people will tune in for Palin's speech tomorrow. Obama got 38 million....I'd bet Palin gets the same or very close to that #.

____________________

zotz:

Tybo and KipTin
YOU ARE LOSING. McCain/Palin will be synonymous with Titanic. But since you guys are being paid for these posts you might as wel keep going.

____________________

Tybo:

"Obama is a man who has spent his adult life thinking serious thoughts about serious issues and having serious conversations about them with other serious, well-informed people; while Palin quite as clearly has done none of those things"

right, she actually governered, while obama had serious thoughts.. like
"how do I get a second lot for my house without paying for it"
"how to I get to the next higher office"

____________________

KipTin:

Earmarks? Palin was doing her job as mayor... going after federal money for sewer system, mental hospital, public transportation. Good for her.

Obama and Biden are even more successful in getting earmarks for their constituents. So what's your beef?

I know you want us to focus on Palin, but all this does is paint Obama and Biden as Washington Insiders/Politics As Usual.

____________________

Tybo:

"For a small town mayor to get $27 million in federal earmarks is pretty special"

that would be a mayors job..
obama only managed to get a million as a state senator.. and his wife got 25% of that every year since (success, he raised his family income on my tax dollars!)

____________________

KipTin:

I am afraid zotz is mistaking his fulltime job for that of others. This is the only blog I post on and I have never been paid to post. Enough of the personal attacks. Shows that you are losing the argument(s).

____________________

Stillow:

Don't forget Hillary getting 10M for a hippy museum in New York. I'm sure hippies are fine folks, but 10M seems to be an odd tax payer expense.

____________________

Tybo:

let's see the earmarksPalin sought

"There was $500,000 for a youth shelter, $1.9 million for a transportation hub, $900,000 for sewer repairs, and $15 million for a rail project"


any obamaites object?

____________________

cinnamonape:

I agree with many commentators here that these surveys typically are showing an Obama bounce from the DNC with a bit of the edge taken off from the Palin announcement.

But they don't include the effects of the Palin downside that has hit over the weekend.

Zogby internet polls are very problematical since they are generally surveys of a pool of those who are political junkies and partisans who use and consume the internet. And many have learned that they can create proxy respondants by using different computers and false fronts to increase their chance of being "picked".

The poll rarely coincides closely with other surveys based on more "random" selection processes.

As such, Zogby internet polls at best give a measure of what the PUNDITS think...but not average people, and certainly not RV's or LV's.

____________________

cinnamonape:

KipTin~Palin and McCain are NOT Pro-Choice. And as regards to whether they will preserve Federal Abortion Rights standards (which LIMITS States from imposing restrictions on abortion access to women)...

McCain has said that he opposes Roe v. Wade and would appoint more Supreme Court Justices in the mold of Scalia and Thomas. Both support voiding Roe v. Wade.

Palin called herself as "pro-life as any candidate can be." She opposes abortion for rape and incest victims, allowing it only in cases where the mother's life is in danger. She supported a law mandating parental consent for abortions be added to Alaska's constitution. Palin is a member of Feminists for Life which opposes the use of most female forms of contraception (including IUD's, the pill, the patch) since they "might result in the abortion of a fertilized embryo". However a 2006 article in the Anchorage Daily News refers to Palin as supportive of contraception but does not go into detail on the subject.

____________________

faithhopelove:

Stillow:

Regarding abortion, Reagan repeatedly said that exceptions should be made in cases of rape and incest, and in cases in which the woman's health was threatened. Palin has not been for these exceptions.

____________________

KipTin:

Did I say pro-choice? I get it mixed up because to me "pro-life" is a choice.

You stated "She supported a law mandating parental consent for abortions be added to Alaska's constitution." Actually, most voters agree with "parental consent." So what is wrong with that?

And do you understand the difference between a candidate's "personal" belief versus an activist "political" agenda?

And now you present an undocumentated statement about "Feminists for Life" stance on birth control. From their website--

FAQ: What is Feminists for Life's position on contraception?

Answer: Feminists for Life's mission is to address the unmet needs of women who are pregnant or parenting. Preconception issues including abstinence and contraception are outside of our mission. Some FFL members and supporters support the use of non-abortifacient contraception while others oppose contraception for a variety of reasons. FFL is concerned that certain forms of contraception have had adverse health effects on women.

Therefore, NO POSITION on "preconception issues"....Sounds like they support a PRIVATE PERSONAL HEALTH CHOICE.

____________________

Robi:

But Palin has said that she wants sex-ed out and abstinence-only in the schools.

Obama has had to go through approx. 25 debates with many democratic contenders as well as Hillary Clinton for almost two years now about every issue.

Palin has not even thought about foreign policy because she didn't have to. A governor does not have to worry about such things and that it not her fault.

The problem is that her lack of experience on these issues was not put to the test through rigorous primaries and debates like Obama. That is why dems (not the Obama campaign so don't make false accusations) are talking about her lack of experience.

We would have been happier if the issues tracking websites didn't list Palin's stance on foreign policy issues as "None".

For now, she has no issue stances and is a gimmick in my opinion because she didn't even know what the VP does a month ago.

She can prove me wrong in the debates (and don't say she will because neither you nor I know and you will sound like a partisan hack if you make such a prediction). The expectations for her are low for the debate so that's a good thing for her already.

____________________

Tybo:

"The problem is that her lack of experience on these issues was not put to the test through rigorous primaries and debates like Obama."

psstt,,,she's not running for president..

____________________

Robi:

You're right, the fact that the VP may assume office at any time is of no importance. We shouldn't look at a vice president's qualifications to be president because a 72 year old man who has had bouts with cancer (melanoma I think is the specific issue) doesn't have any health risks.

All I am saying is that the people have been reassured debate after debate in the democratic primaries about the fact that Obama will be able to run the white house effectively. Going up against Hillary Clinton is not an easy thing to do.

The millions of people that voted for Obama which include international security professors as well as international relations scholars is evidence enough for me that his "lack of experience" is a non-issue.

Palin has not had the same vetting process (if any) that Obama has gone through and that why I agree with people that this pick is worrying. I can't find on any third party website what her policy stances are on nuclear proliferation or China foreign policy. That's what makes everyone worry so much. She has yet to prove that her in-experience is a non-issue as well.

____________________

Robi:

let's move future posts on this Tybo to the most recent topic

____________________

Obama Maniac:

Yes, we must all trust Zogby over ALL the other Pollsters who show a widening lead for Obama, because Zogby did such a great job nailing the 2004 election.

NOT!!!!!!!!!!!

____________________

Tybo:

"All I am saying is that the people have been reassured debate after debate in the democratic primaries about the fact that Obama will be able to run the white house effectively"


they have? is that why after spending more money than any candidate he's tied with McCain ...

____________________

Robi:

He's not tied with McCain first of all. The electoral vote shows an incredible gap between them. But also I'm talking about the democratic party and the over 18 million people that voted for him to become president. Unlike Palin, it didn't just happen overnight.

And he's able to spend more money because over 2 million people have contributed to his campaign (including me). He will prove himself in the presidential debates like he has in the 25 democratic debates.

____________________

Tybo:

yes Robi, he's statistically tied.
some show Barack up, some show McCain up.. it's a tie.

"). He will prove himself in the presidential debates like he has in the 25 democratic debates."

LOL!

____________________



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