Clinton 47, Obama 43
Last 13 polls from Pennsylvania (all those with survey dates starting in/or mainly completed in April) shows the mean is about a 5 pt. differential. If one throws out the high/low outliers~ the SUSA Survey continues to be almost twice the differential of any other poll~ then the difference is 4.6%.
Something remains very odd about that SUSA poll, and the more that other surveys emerge, it continues to stand out as an abberancy. Even stranger is the tabs within the survey also look profoundly weird.
Posted on April 11, 2008 3:47 PM
I think that this poll marks the first time that Clinton's blue trend line has begun, ever so slightly, to dip downward in the pollster chart.
Posted on April 11, 2008 3:55 PM
Yet at the same time Obama's has started tapering a bit, as well. I suppose that both are what we would expect if a) the total number of undecideds that they can draw from is extinguished, and b) the only potential source for "gains" is conversions from the "weakly support" or "strongly support" samples.
Regarding that SUSA survey. They were also an outlier in Ohio in the weeks just prior to the Primary there. On 2/10 they had Obama 17% behind Clinton, that dropped to 9% on 2/17 and then 6% on 2/24 before bouncing back to 10% just a day or two before the election (and after the NAFTA "bombshell" rovided by the Conservative Canadian Gov't...who failed to mention that Hillary had actually made similar, and more direct, approaches saying the same thing...until after Ohio).
So I suspect that something in the SUSA protocol may result in a lag behind the other polls and a late response toward the final result. Whether this is because the make revisions to their predictors of participation as the polling continues, if they begin to include late registrants as "Likely voters", or some other factors isn't clear. But what it may suggest is that we will see SUSA's polls start to converge on the other polls this week and next, barring another bombshell.
Posted on April 11, 2008 4:09 PM
James Zogby, Zogby's Brother is a superdelegate for Obama. What don't you Obamabots not understand. You would think you would have learned your lesson since NH, CA, OH, and TX.
Zogby has been dropped from Reuters and CSPAN b/c of his bias towards Obama so STOP IT, YOU GUYS ARE BECOMING PATHETIC BELIEVING THESE POLLS
The best Poll will be on Apr. 22ND. Man, you guys are pitiful.
Posted on April 11, 2008 5:00 PM
And yet, "Clintonite", here you are on Pollster.com reading various polls and commenting on threads. So, you clearly believe that polls are useful sources of information. Moreover, you seem to have complete confidence that Clinton will win PA--based, no doubt, on polling. So who's being "pathetic" to "believe" in various polls?
Posted on April 11, 2008 5:08 PM
It's probably best just to ignore Clintonite going forward. This site usually hosts intelligent comments and is not a good space for name-calling, conspirisy theories, blatant partisanship, and the incoherent ramblings of cranks.
I automatically skip over or discount comments that rely on all caps for emphasis. I respect both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but I find their partisans making comments on the cable network sites, e.g., to be boring and useless. Who pays attention to the maniacs raving on streetcorners, anyway?
With regard to the trendlines, they do portend some further convergence. Note that unlike Ohio, HRC has not really established a base or kept her moving average over 50% - not to say that the undecideds might yet break her way. Still, she is likely to net fewer than 15 delegates, perhaps as few as 6 or 7 -- not the win she needs to convince the supers. Since any gain in PA will likely be more than offset in NC, Indiana is shaping up as the real test as to whether she should continue on life-support.
Posted on April 11, 2008 6:24 PM
"James Zogby, Zogby's Brother is a superdelegate for Obama. What don't you Obamabots not understand. You would think you would have learned your lesson since NH, CA, OH, and TX."
First of all Clintonite, let me point out who got more total delegates in TX (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/):
So really, Obama DID win Texas. ;)
Agreed Zogby has been off in big polls, but every one was off with NH. The problem is with the demographics of the people polled with Zogby. They over/under estimate (i.e. CA and OH).
However, almost every recent polling report is showing Clinton's lead shrinking significantly...so if the actual numbers are a lot different than the polls, we can't only blame Zogby.
I'll say it again...IF Clinton wins PA by less than 5%, she really needs to pull the plug on her campaign. If not, it'd just be hardheadedness that's bad for the Democratic Party and General Election.
Posted on April 13, 2008 11:15 PM
I really do like both Clinton AND Obama. I feel strongly that either would make a great President. That said, I have to take issue with the tone of the comments posted by "Clintonite" and some others. The longer this race goes, the more shrill and rude the voices of some Clinton and Obama supporters seem to get. Unfortunately these voices, like that of "Clintonite", remind me (and many others) of the partisan bickering that paralyized government during part of Bill Clinton's Presidency. This sniping and bickering turns me off to both canidates ... nomatter how smart or good. I think "we" those who want to see a new direction in Washington need to keep in mind how much partisan bickering "turns off" folks and resist the urge to engage in it.
Posted on April 14, 2008 5:40 AM
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