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POLL: Zogby Pennsylvania Dems


Zogby/Newsmax

Pennsylvania 4/15 through 4/16
Clinton 45, Obama 44

As in previous primary states, Zogby is doing rolling average tracking surveys through election day. So (to answer the question from URI), today's two-day sample overlaps with yesterday's.

 

Comments

Zogby? LOL!

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Gmann:

Good news,
I hope this becomes the last primary. Time to move on.

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franco:

After last nights debate it will be interesting to see how the polls move. I think Hillary will be the victim of voters disgust with the gutter politics we saw last night. It's all over for her. As a New Yorker I am hoping someone runs against her in the democratic primary.

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Cristobal:

I'd also like to point out that the "Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN" poll is a more reliable poll than just the "Zogby". I'm not saying that this poll doesn't confirm a closing trend...I just would be almost 99.9% confident if this was done by all three groups not the sole "Zogby" poller. Just wanted to throw that out there. So far I have predicted each state correctly in the primary and the PA primary is less than a week away and I am baffled. Perhaps it is because I live in the Bucks County area where Clinton support is thin and there are no "race gaps", "gender gaps", or "age gaps". If he takes SE PA (by a 10% margin), Wins the Pittsburg Area (Alleghany Co.), and wins only two small Central PA, or Western PA counties, he can win this. So on April 22nd look for early results in these counties...these will tell what happens on Tuesday...and with the massive Obama grassroots organization in SE PA and Western PA you cannot count out a suprise on Tuesday, and especially since the Clinton PA organization has been having serious trouble in SE PA, and stand with signs rather than trying to convince an undecided voter to vote for Senator Clinton.

I will post again on Sunday.

-Cristobal

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Damn you, Zogby, for getting my hopes up. I refuse to believe this poll, if only because I WANT to believe it. Clinton must be leading by more than this, right?

I guess we'll find out in 5 days.

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Dan:

Like the infantile debate moderators we were subjected to last night, this poll has descended into the realm of the absurd. Zogby actually asked respondents which candidate they would rather have a beer with.

I swear, sometimes I am truly embarrassed to be a part of this country.

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Obama backer here ... and I don't lend any credence to this poll. Zogby isn't as accurate as should be expected AND that it was done in conjunction with Newsmax only exponentially creates even more doubt.

http://www.thedeadguy.com/?p=30

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RS:

@Cristobal:
The Allegheny County win is a big IF. Though given that many folks in that region lost jobs when the steel industry moved out... (something Senator Obama is very familiar with.)
Also, I believe Zogby is the pollster; Reuters/C-SPAN and Newsmax are just the sponsors; I imagine Zogby won't change his methodology according to the sponsor. Then again, Newsmax isn't a particularly non-partisan sponsor... ;-)

@Dan:
Even weirder is the result on the beer question - the two are tied! Maybe that shot of Crown Royal worked after all!

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Uri:

I don't know why all the Obama voters are so bothered by the debates yesterday.

The questions weren't about healthcare and economy, but we've seen these in all the twenty previous debates and honestly, both candidates pretty much say the same things these days.

The questions that Obama had to field he's fielded before. Compared to wright, the Ayers story is nothing, and if anything would attract younger voters.

People are forgetting that Hillary was asked why she's considered a liar, not exactly a good thing for a candidate on a debate, especially when she had to admit to lying.

Zogby falls in line with trends, I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama winning PA especially with all the college students who are voting.

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illinoisindie:

Zogby's poll is probably accurate (yes I am an Obama supporter, but hear me out). The high 9% of undecideds probably has surreptitious Clinton support that would put zogby in line with the others, clinton with a 5-10 pt lead.

Now my OPED, As for that "wonderful" debate, Obama "needs" the smut issues brought up last night to become "old news" by GE, all of those talking points last night were republican talking points, so thanks Hillary and your surrogate snuffalupagus, enough people are appalled by this debate that it may work in Obama's favor. It secures his talking points for a "new kind of politics". She only wins if he is "unelectable" the best way to do that is to 527 with Rovian type tactics. Someone needs to tell her that nothing sticks to teflon.

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