Archive:
Pollsters
April 09, 2008
David Hill ponders the fall of Mark Penn and the reasons why "pollsters are the red-haired stepchild of politics when it comes to holding truly significant roles in major presidential campaigns." Karen Tumulty chronicles Penn's demotion and recalls a forgotten...April 09, 2008
Back before I shifted to blogging full time, I did fair amount of survey work in a particular locale where, by some odd twist of fate, we always managed to interview some relative or close friend of the client on...April 07, 2008
As by now you have probably learned from every media outlet in the known universe, pollster Mark Penn has resigned as chief political strategist for the Clinton campaign over the flap involving his outside work for the government of Colombia....March 31, 2008
Can you guess which presidential election gave us this headline and lead?: POLLS: A YEAR TO BE WARY ONCE in a while, all pollsters should take the kind of beating we took in the primaries, just to maintain equilibrium," says...March 31, 2008
A bit of polling history on a slow Monday morning: Yesterday's Los Angeles Times included a fascinating account of President Lyndon Johnson's decision against seeking a second term in 1968 by his former appointments secretary Jim Jones (via Jonathan Martin)....February 29, 2008
I am playing catch up after a day spent mostly in airports and offline. So I pass along this item after only a brief review: SurveyUSA's Jay Leve has posted yet more on their new and evolving pollster report cards....February 21, 2008
My latest column for NationalJournal.com, which examines criticism of poll driven "horse race" coverage, is now online....February 21, 2008
Jay Leve and his crew at SurveyUSA have been busy this week. Following up on our discussion of their pollster report cards, SurveyUSA has a new and improved scorecard chart for individual states primaries (example for Florida Republicans with explanation...February 19, 2008
A week ago, I linked to two new pollster "report cards" prepared by SurveyUSA (one for all pollsters, one for the 14 most active this year), based on average accuracy scores for all pollsters that have released presidential primary surveys...February 11, 2008
Ben Smith has just reported that Pollster John Gorman, the CEO and founder of Opinion Dynamics Corporation, has passed away. Since regular readers may know Gorman's through the polls his company conducts for Fox News, they may be surprised to...January 28, 2008
Earlier today, I participated in a blogger conference call with Gallup's Frank Newport, in which he talked about their latest surveys in California and New York, as well as their intriguing new project, the Gallup Daily. Starting in early January,...January 14, 2008
My colleagues at AAPOR have just put out this release: In the wake of the New Hampshire pre-election polls, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) today announced the formation of an ad hoc committee to evaluate pre-election primary...January 05, 2008
A week ago I posted results from our poll of pollsters on how they rated and ranked their colleagues in Iowa. Tonight, their ratings of the New Hampshire pollsters. First, a bit of review. The results below give us a...December 29, 2007
The main impetus for our "Poll of Pollsters" (from which I posted the first results on Thursday) is the desire to find better objective criteria to help sort out pollsters. As both Charles and I review today in complementary posts...December 27, 2007
As we expected poll releases to be a little slower than usual this week, we decided to conduct one of our own. Last week, we invited about a hundred professional pollsters who work for the news media and political campaigns...December 19, 2007
For today's puzzle, we have two new polls in Iowa, one from the ABC News/Washington Post partnership and another from the public relations firm InsiderAdvantage. The ABC/Post poll shows both Obama (at 33%) and Clinton (at 29%) significantly ahead of...November 15, 2007
My colleague Nancy Mathiowetz, a noted survey methodologist and current president of the American Assoociation for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), will be a regular contributor on Huffington Post in the coming months. Her first post is now up, and...September 14, 2007
Ezra Klein really hates the new book by Clinton pollster Mark Penn: [Penn's] new book Microtrends is so bad that the question--in a fair world--isn't whether it will destroy his own reputation, but whether it is so epically awful...August 01, 2007
Former NBC News political director Elizabeth Wilner devotes her Politico column to the state of media polling. She leads with this unhappy speculation about the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Hanging in the balance of Rupert Murdoch's courtship of Dow...July 23, 2007
OK, more accurately, that should probably read statisticians of the future. Whatever. Either way, I couldn't be prouder (via the AAPOR member-only listserv):...July 20, 2007
On Wednesday I posted numbers culled from the second quarter Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings by the Democratic presidential campaigns to see how much they spent on their pollsters. Today, let's take a look at the Republicans. All in...July 19, 2007
Kathy Frankovic, the polling director at CBS News, pays tribute to survey interviewers in her weekly column, which includes a rare public** description of the interviewing process behind the CBS News/New York Times poll: Interviewers for the CBS News/New...July 19, 2007
The Associated Press reports: A lawsuit accusing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's chief strategist of illegally intercepting e-mails has been withdrawn, and the legal battle between him and former associates has been resolved, the parties said Wednesday. The claim of...July 18, 2007
I spent much of yesterday poking around the presidential candidates disbursement forms looking at what the pollsters received, having had my appetite whetted by the coverage over the last few days by the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder (here, here and...July 13, 2007
The pollsters at the Washington Post, Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta, have a blog we managed to overlook called "Behind the Numbers." Recent posts drill deeper into the recent Post surveys of political independents. Kathy Frankovic mines the Roper...July 12, 2007
Good news and bad news for the Los Angeles Times Poll. The bad news, according to an internal memo obtained by LA Observed, is that their staff and funding has been cut. The good news is that the poll...July 06, 2007
We have been watching with interest coverage of the lawsuit and countersuit involving Clinton pollster Mark Penn, his ex-partner and a former employee. The Nation’s Ari Berman reports: A lawsuit filed in New York by a former employee of...June 19, 2007
Additional analysis to the recent USAToday/Gallup national survey of 1,007 adults (conducted 6/11 through 6/14) finds 32% of Americans approve of the way George Bush is handling his job as president -- "the most negative of his entire presidency and...May 25, 2007
With the holiday weekend fast approaching, I want to clear out my in-box of a number of interesting items that have been piling up over this past week: On Wednesday, NBC's Chuck Todd reported on a voter focus group conducted...May 09, 2007
Although we try hard to promptly report polling related new items, we missed a good one yesterday. Conservative commentator Ann Coulter dropped another one of her bon mots during a Fox News broadcast, this one aimed at the pollsters...May 01, 2007
Ann Kornblut's 2,800 word, front-page must-read profile in yesterday's Washington Post of Clinton pollster and "chief strategist" Mark Penn has been stirring up quite a bit of critical commentary on the left side of the blogosphere. Although Media Matters...January 22, 2007
Two new Rasmussen Reports automated surveys (analysis, more analysis) find: Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 31%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (24%), Sen. John Edwards (12%) and five other Democratic candidates in a national primary. 79% of Americans are willing to vote...December 15, 2006
Today's Guest Pollster's Corner contribution comes from Amy Simon, a partner at Goodwin Simon Victoria Research. News media and academics hold up Random Digit Dialing (RDD) sampling methodology as the gold standard for survey samples for elections. Meanwhile, many top...December 12, 2006
(A post by Mark Blumenthal last week discussed results from a Gallup "panel" survey. Today, Frank Newport and Jeff Jones of the Gallup Organization respond with a Guest Pollster Corner piece that provides more information on the Gallup panel.) The...November 21, 2006
One recent development I overlooked in the run-up to the election is the new blog on USAToday.com by Frank Newport, editor and chief of the Gallup Poll. Dubbed "Gallup Guru," Newport's blog promises to chew over many of the same...October 23, 2006
Andrew Kohut is the President of the Pew Research Center and arguably the dean of the survey research profession. President of the Gallup Organization from 1979 to 1989, Kohut recently received the highest honor of the American Association of Public...October 16, 2006
[Editor's Note: Today's Guest Pollster Corner item comes from Anna Greenberg, Vice President of the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.] Along with taxes and security, immigration represents one of the pillars of Republican attacks on Democratic attacks this year....October 12, 2006
This "Guest Pollster Corner" contribution comes from Thomas Riehle, a Partner of RT Strategies Editor's note: In a 2:30 p.m. press conference, Riehle announced that when the sum up results of the 63 surveys they have conducted since August and...September 13, 2006
A quick update on last night's Republican Senate primary in Rhode Island. Incumbent Senator Lincoln Chafee defeated challenger Stephen Laffey by an eight percentage point margin (53.6% to 46.4%). So in the battle of the polls -- described in my...September 08, 2006
My colleagues at the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) have put up a web page tribute to Warren Mitofsky. It includes photos and recollections from many of his pollster colleagues posted over the last week on the organization's members-only...September 06, 2006
This morning's Washington Post has the quintessential Warren Mitofsky appreciation. It is absolutely worth reading in full, and I find it difficult to find just one paragraph to excerpt. Here are a few that stand out: Mitofsky cared deeply, passionately...September 04, 2006
Sixteen years ago, I called Warren Mitofsky at his office in New York with a question. What made the conversation remarkable was neither the reason for my query nor the substance of his answer. What was remarkable was that he...August 22, 2006
Last week I discovered an interesting new blog devoted to political polling called Crosstabs.org. Actually, Crosstabs.org is something of a blog within a blog, a site nestled within the conservative site RedState.comorg. It combines frequent posts from blogger Gerry Daly...
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08 STATEWIDE PRIMARIES
US
Dem,
Rep
Upcoming
Kentucky (5/20)
Oregon (5/20)
Puerto Rico (6/1)
Montana (6/3)
South Dakota (6/3)
2008 POLL DATA
Pres General Election:
McCain vs
US: Clinton, Obama
AL: Clinton, Obama
AK: Clinton, Obama
AZ: Clinton, Obama
AR: Clinton, Obama
CA: Clinton, Obama
CO: Clinton, Obama
CT: Clinton, Obama
DE: Clinton, Obama
FL: Clinton, Obama
GA: Clinton, Obama
HI: Clinton, Obama
ID: Clinton, Obama
IL: Clinton, Obama
IN: Clinton, Obama
IA: Clinton, Obama
KS: Clinton, Obama
KY: Clinton, Obama
LA: Clinton, Obama
ME: Clinton, Obama
MD: Clinton, Obama
MA: Clinton, Obama
MI: Clinton, Obama
MN: Clinton, Obama
MS: Clinton, Obama
MO: Clinton, Obama
MT: Clinton, Obama
NE: Clinton, Obama
NV: Clinton, Obama
NH: Clinton, Obama
NJ: Clinton, Obama
NM: Clinton, Obama
NY: Clinton, Obama
NC: Clinton, Obama
ND: Clinton, Obama
OH: Clinton, Obama
OK: Clinton, Obama
OR: Clinton, Obama
PA: Clinton, Obama
RI: Clinton, Obama
SC: Clinton, Obama
SD: Clinton, Obama
TN: Clinton, Obama
TX: Clinton, Obama
UT: Clinton, Obama
VT: Clinton, Obama
VA: Clinton, Obama
WA: Clinton, Obama
WV: Clinton, Obama
WI: Clinton, Obama
WY: Clinton, Obama
Sen General Election:
Alaska
Colorado
Louisiana
Maine
Minnesota
Mississippi (Special)
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico (Pearce)
New Mexico (Wilson)
North Carolina
Texas
Virginia
PUBLIC POLLSTERS
ABC News
AP-IPSOS
CBS News
Democracy Corps (D)
Diageo/Hotline Poll
Economist/YouGov
EPIC/MRA
The Field Poll
FOX News
GWU/Battleground
Gallup
Harris Interactive
IBD/TIPP
ICR - International Communications Research
LA Times/Bloomberg
Mason Dixon Polling and Research
Marist Poll
Market Shares Corporation
Mitchell Interactive
NBC/Wall Street Journal
New York Times
Opinion Research Corporation
Pew Research Center
Polimetrix
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Public Agenda
Public Policy Polling
Quinnipiac University Poll
Rasmussen Reports
Selzer & Company
Suffolk University Political Research Center
Survey USA
Time/SRBI
Washington Post
World Public Opinion
Zogby International
POLL BLOGS AND SITES
Political Arithmetik
Crosstabs.org
The Polling Report
Electoral-Vote.com
R. Chung's Graphics
Prof. Wang's State Poll Meta-Analysis
Prof. Pollkatz Pool of Polls
Slate: Election Scorecard
Public Opinion Pros
Frank Newport: Gallup Guru
Carl Bialik: The Numbers Guy
Poll Positions: Kathy Frankovic
The Numbers: Gary Langer
Washington Post: Behind the Numbers
SURVEY RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONS
American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)
The National Council on Public Polls (NCPP)
Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO)
The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR)
The Council for Marketing and Opinion Research (CMOR)
Marketing Research Association
ARCHIVES
May 11, 2008 - May 17, 2008
May 4, 2008 - May 10, 2008
April 27, 2008 - May 3, 2008
April 20, 2008 - April 26, 2008
April 13, 2008 - April 19, 2008
April 6, 2008 - April 12, 2008
March 30, 2008 - April 5, 2008
March 23, 2008 - March 29, 2008
March 16, 2008 - March 22, 2008
March 9, 2008 - March 15, 2008
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