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Pre-RBC "Outliers"

Topics: 2008 , Al Gore , Barack Obama , Exit Polls , Gary Langer , Hillary Clinton , John Kerry

Brian Schaffner unpacks the Michigan exit poll results that asked which candidate the respondent would have voted for if all the candidates had been on the ballot.

Poblano outs himself -- he's a writer and baseball statistician named Nate Silver -- and ponders turnout in Puerto Rico.

The Pew Hispanic Center sums up the Puerto Rico demographics.

Gary Langer looks ahead to Puerto Rico, looks back at this year's exit polls.

Frank Newport ponders the electability of Clinton and Obama.

Mark Mellman says Barack Obama "is faring better today with the white working class than did either [Al] Gore [in 2000] or [John] Kerry [in 2004]."

Geoff Garin (sub. req.) says even though voting ends Tuesday, "it's very unlikely the nomination will be secured" (via The Page).

Ben Smith reminds us of a poll driven electoral map from May 2004.

Jay Cost continues his look at the Obama primary coalition.

Neil Newhouse and Alex Bellone tell Chris Cillizza how their focus group reacted to Scott McClellan's book.

[And more...]
Eric Kleefeld reviews the Nini-Hurwitz analysis to question whether the Florida and Michigan resuls reflected the"will of their states' Democratic voters [via alert Pollster reader RS and Josh Marshall].

 

Comments
RS:

@Mark:
Don't know if you saw this story on TPM:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/primaries.php

Links to this analysis of the primary turnouts to estimate turnout in MI/FL IF the primaries were known to be legitimate:
http://www.dcourage.com/Nini%20-%20Problem%20with%20Existing%20FL%20and%20MI%20Primaries.pdf

Via Josh Marshall:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/197852.php

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