Pollster.com: Pres08: Adding Richardson to the Top Dems

June 27, 2007

Pres08: Adding Richardson to the Top Dems

Starting today I'm adding Bill Richardson to the Top Democrats charts for both state primaries and the national nomination polling. The graph above shows his substantial movement in Iowa, and New Hampshire looks quite similar. While Richardson is still in fourth place in both states (5th in NH if you include Gore), his is the only trajectory that is clearly moving up. So it seems fitting to start watching it with each new poll.

Richardson's movement is substantially concentrated in Iowa and New Hampshire, so when I include him elsewhere, you might wonder why I'd call him a "Top Democrat." See Florida below for an example.

Here Richardson has edged up just a little bit (to 3.9%!), but certainly not like the move he has made in Iowa or New Hampshire. But that is EXACTLY the point. By seeing what he is doing everywhere, we can track how his movement in the earliest states compares to how he is doing in the rest of the primary and caucus states. If I left him out of the "Top Dems" everywhere except where he is doing well, you'd have no comparison across states.

Likewise, I'm adding him to the national Top Democrats plot for the same reason. As you can see below, his moves in Iowa and New Hampshire are completely invisible in the national polling.

And again, that is exactly the point. When you see his campaign move in early states but not others and not nationally, you see the variation in strength and the possibility of future growth elsewhere. But not if I leave him out of the plots.

For other Democratic candidates, we've not seen a substantial upturn anywhere. Richardson stands alone in that respect at the moment.

Of course, I'll continue to monitor the top candidates and make additions (or perhaps deletions!) as developments warrant.

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

-- Charles Franklin

June 27, 2007 in The 2008 Race

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Comments

Willie:

It looks as if Richardson is drawing his support in Iowa primarily from Clinton & Obama?

I doubt that he will garner enough caucus-goers to meet the minimum threshold though. This could make Richardson the spoiler in that state if the race continues to tighten and his delegates are in play.

Posted on June 27, 2007 4:43 PM

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Stephen Fox:

Bravo! Long overdue! Thank you! I am glad to see many websites, especially an independent and objective pollster's, are warming to Richardson�s campaign. What Richardson has achieved vis-a-vis the New Mexico Legislature is remarkable. I do want to see him President, but I am in no way connected officially to his campaign. Referring to the two comments below, Richardson is certainly no spoiler in the Ralph Nader, and to conclude that completely misses the point of the obvious appeal of his candidacy. What is that appeal actually founded upon?

The so called "top-tier" candidates together, all 3 of them, have a collective resume still lesser in quality to Bill Richardson's! I am certain that Richardson's real genius and his strongest suit is in international affairs, and that will be vital (and I don't mean as just a future US Secretary of State!), if we are going to even attempt to rebuild the shattered US image internationally, after six years of Halliburton-driven corporate kleptocracy. His debate skills have not been as honed and polished as the 3 lawyers in so-called "top tier," but that is fixable. His biography is great (Between Worlds: the Making of an American Life), and I surmise that his new book on Energy Policy will be just as good.

Here is what I consider the bottom line: you do not have to be a Marxian or Hegelian or a Ph.D Economist to comprehend that our domestic economy is suffering and going to get worse resulting from the on-going international implications of the screwed up foreign policy of this administration, so thoroughly based on corporate needs and demands; as long as we continue to see appointments like Bush�s recently approved trade negotiator Zoelick made over into President of the World Bank to replace do not expect ANY major improvements in the last two years of the Bush tenure, especially in the trickle down economic realms which would improve the lives of individual American consumers.

Richardson has repeatedly made it clear that Congress could deauthorize the Iraq War; he has urged it repeatedly to do so, and has clearly stated that he personally will end it the first day of his Presidency!

My prediction: Richardson is going to win in Nevada, and he is going to do very well in Iowa, New Hampshire, Tennessee, and California, I think winning in at least two more of those states. May I suggest that you and your readers directly communicate to David Contarino and Amanda Cooper, his Campaign Manager, and Deputy CM, or to Richardson directly through the email function on his NM governor website? These people are very open to new ideas, questions, strategies, insights, etc., and I encourage anyone reading to take the time to contact them by phone or by email, even if you have just one question on a policy matter, or want to tell Bill Richardson what YOU think.

If you wish, please google the title of my most recent major article, RESOLVING THE WORSENING CRISIS AT THE FDA, published in many nations.

Truly,
Stephen Fox
New Millennium Fine Art, Santa Fe, New Mexico
505 983-2002

Posted on June 27, 2007 4:54 PM

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Elaine Viel:

Richardson is the one to lead us out of this quagmire. The only one with the foreign policy expertise and the world view that we need so badly in Washington. I'm happy to see that he is gaining. I think the more that people see and hear him the stronger he will get. It's time that the media realize that he is a serious contender.

Posted on July 7, 2007 2:48 AM

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