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Pre-Thanksgiving "Outliers"

Topics: 2008 , Push "Polls" , The 2008 Race

Republican Pollster Neil Newhouse sends Politico a "brief pollster's guide to what constitutes a push poll and what doesn't."

Kathy Frankovic reviews the Romney "push poll" story and the confusion between "push" polls and real polls, reminding us that real candidate polls sometimes include negative information.

Jennifer Agiesta reports the highest level of economic pessimism in 17 years, as measured by the Washington Post/ABC Consumer Comfort Index, and recaps data on "personal contact" with the candidates by likely Iowa Caucus goers. .

Frank Newport notices that George Bush is poised to break Richard Nixon's record of 14 straight months of a job approval rating below 40% and sees parallels between now and 1992 in terms of Americans' "perceived distress."

Jay Cost checks the internals on the recent Post/ABC Iowa poll and concludes that Hillary Clinton is relying on first time caucus goers as much as Barack Obama.

Tom Bevan does some apples-to-apples comparisons of the trends in Fred Thompson's support (via Martin)

Mike Lux reports seeing a "clear trendline" in "both public and private" polling in Iowa that shows Barack Obama "has picked up several points, and is now at least tied with Clinton, and maybe even up a little" (via Smith).

Dante Scala has new ad buy numbers for Giuliani, Romney and Paul on New Hampshire's WMUR.

DailyKos diarist DHinMI is not happy with John Zogby for conducting a survey commissioned by a Ron Paul supporter.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Comments
Paul:

Re: Romney ... this is the same guy who said he would not spend his own money on the campaign ... what we have seen is that that his campaign has spent far more (not even close) to what he brings in ... must be his own money? ... so much for the pledge.

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Charles Wilson:

Whether or not it's a "push poll" is pure semantics. What matters is the following:

1. Someone made calls that included anti-Mormon rhetoric and pro-McCain statements.

2. The Romney campaign hooked up the media with people who got the calls, and who objected to them. In their interviews, those people strongly implied that McCain was behind the calls.

3. Romney denounced the calls as "unamerican," and blamed them on the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform legislation, further linking McCain's name to the calls.

4. The Romney campaign failed to disclose that the people it hooked up with the media were in fact paid staffers. One of those staffers lied to the Salt Lake Tribune:

"When asked if she was a Romney supporter, Roth said she was leaning toward backing him, but not sure. Roth didn't disclose, nor did the campaign, that she has received $3,000 since April from the Romney camp as a grass-roots field organizer."

5. Neither the Romney campaign nor its hired-gun consultant, Target Consulting, has unequivocally denied involvement with calls placed between Nov. 15-17 in IA, NH, or SC that asked questions about Mormonism. Instead, they have issued a series of non-denial denials.

I say that there's now a preponderance of evidence that these calls were the work of the Romney campaign. It's up to Romney to disprove it. Come on, Mittster. Tell the truth. It's going to come out one way or the other.

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Bob:

Newhouse is covering his ass. We now know (thanks to Mark Blumenthal) that McCain's people conducted this poll. Who are McCain's pollsters? Bill McInturff and Neil Newhouse.

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