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Quinnipiac: FL, OH, PA (10/16-21)

Topics: PHome

Quinnipiac University
10/16-21/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Florida 1,433 LV, 2.6%
Obama 49, McCain 44

Ohio 1,360 LV, 2.7%
Obama 52, McCain 38

Pennsylvania 1,425 LV, 2.6%
Obama 53, McCain 40

 

Comments
mandalorianarmy:

Wow, I couldn't believe Ohio, but then I saw the Big 10 polls as well:

Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

All I can say is, wow.

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BOOMFAIL:

**** is hitting the fan!

Landslide Baby Landslide!

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deeznutsrepubs:

Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062

Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74

Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102


Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska gets nowhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!


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JoelR:

Has boomshak assumed a fetal position yet?

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Atomique:

Bye bye, GOP!

Now the question is, what party is going to oppose the Democrats in the next election? The Libertarian Party? The Green Party? The Constitution Party?

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Trosen:

No way the OH # is accurate. No chance. something is totally out of whack there. Believe me, I wish it was that way, but come on. Even a 7 point lead I'd have a hard time believing, let alone twice that.

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OGLiberal:

Rasmussen today:

O - 52
M - 45

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deeznutsrepubs:

trosen-

well i think many people who are "undecided" are actually for mccain and are embarrassed about it. so actually, give him those and it is 52-48, probably closer to reality.


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DTM:

@Atomique

If the Republican Party cannot transform itself into a modern and principled conservative party, I would bet on a breakaway group forming a new party and taking that role. My personal guess is that for a name they would go with some sort of historical revival--I'd love for it to be the Whigs, but I think "The Federalist Party" would make the most sense for a host of reasons.

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BOOMFAIL:

@Trosen

Both Battleground poll and this one show HUGE Obama leads in Ohio today, so it's not just one.

On a side note, just heard on the television machine that past elections had early voting percentages at 60% Rethug, 40% Democrats. This year numbers are showing about 2 - 1 Democrats voting early in the states that allow it. Very telling.

Yes We Can!

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Trosen:

Ok.. looking at the crosstabs, it's pretty clear the OH sample (all of them really) give way too high Party ID advantages +D. In OH for instance, it seems to indicate a +12 or so party ID favoring registered Democrats. In reality it might be + 4 or 5... 6 at the most. That would still show a lead for Obama, but not by nearly as much.

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NorthernObserver:

Another breathtaking set of polls:
http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

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DTM:

I like Nate Silver's suggestion of viewing these as basically what a best-case scenario would look like, one in which Obama does in fact win nationally by double digits as some polls have suggested is possible:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/am-polls-show-surprisingly-large-leads.html

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m913:

RCP latest polls--a dozen lines of Obama up by double digits.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/

Info-porn.

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sunnymi:

These 2 big poll numbers (Q poll and Big Ten poll) out of OH have pushed it into Obama's column on RCP:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Waiting for the same to happen on Pollster later today.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Cross tabs are messed up. Look guys - I'd love to believe this, I could sleep easy and go back to being a productive worker - but OH and maybe FL are large outliers at the moment. I expect Nate at 538 to call out the OH number any minute now, if just to show his non-partisan view of the polls.

Q- is a great pollster. One of the best in OH, but these are not accurate.

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Isher:

this country does have a soul

it is nice to know

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mago:

Goodnigth, John-Boy.

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MichaelJason:

WOW! Landslide here we come!

F**K you, Boom :)

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mac7396:

Florida = McCain FAIL!
Ohio = McCain EPIC FAIL!
PA = McCain EPIC FAIL!

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Isher:

NYCREALAMERICAN

big10 makes me feel good about q

go look-see

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RaleighNC:

That Ohio number is laughable. Yeah, the Big10 polls, too.

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rami:

FL and PA seems right, but OH is just unbelievable.

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axe2grind:

Word on the street in Ohio is up to 10% of Ohio Republicans are voting for Obama.

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zotz:

This is the bandwagon effect. People see others around them breaking for Obama so they do not wish to be on the losing side. That is my theory.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Saw that big ten poll - sorry. If BO has a 10 point lead over Sydney in IN - then I will - I will - I don;t know what I'll do - b/c quite frankly my mind can not wrap itself around such a concept, and I understand multi dimensional quantum theory (well sort of I get a little lost after quarks).

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Schadenfreude:

If these numbers are even in the ballpark, it's over.

Personally, I've been wondering why Obama isn't leading in all 50 (even Utah can't have >50% clueless) but, then again, I'm biased.

But, I've lived in Ohio and PA. I have a hard time believing those numbers.

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sunnymi:


To me the most important thing all these Q-Polls is Obama winning Independents by double-digits. Even if the party affiliations are messed up a lead in Independents is good for him.

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hirshnoc:

WOW, Ohio! Who got polled? Must have been 80% dems and ind.

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VonnegutIce9:

McCain seems to be falling for Obama's bait in Pennsylvania. I love watching his campaign work, they are so much more shrewd than McCain! In case you're not in on the joke, someone from his campaign leaked an "internal" showing PA up by only +2 points and now McCain is spending all his time and money there! What an old fool! I love it!

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mago:

@trosen

You refer to 'registered' Dems in talking about crosstabs, but usually pollster are asking about self-identification rather than registration. These two can differ significantly.

Which is not to say I think Obama has a 14-point lead in OH, though Q is a very reputable pollster.

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ericsp23:

Does anyone know what could have happened in OH that would cause such a dramatic swing in such a short period of time? I mean for the past few days all of the polls have consistently pointed to the race being even or with a slight McCain lead in that state. And now all of the sudden there are 2 polls that have Obama up by double digits.
It just doesn't make sense to me. I want to believe the polls from today, but I can't explain them, and that bothers me.

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Hoosier:

I'm also having a hard time swallowing those Ohio numbers, yet Big Ten also shows Ohio turning into a blow-out. We need more polling here to establish a pattern.

Those of us old enough to remember 1980 remember that it was tight in most states until the closing days of the campaign. Reagan ended up swamping Carter by 10 points is the PV and took 45 states. While Obama won't win 45 states, a total blow-out is looking more and more likely.

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K Johnson:

McCain needs to save the boat from going down. As Navy pilot, he should know that at this point, his campaign is sinking dangerously and for somebody who always said Country First, he should put his resources to support Congressional district that are viable. Anything less would be selfish and a payback to republican who he hates anyway.

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Incumbent:

All these polls showing surprisingly large leads for Obama this week make me suspect that next week is going to be brutal for us Obama supporters as the outliers correct themselves and O's numbers drop back to more accurate levels.

Just trying to prepare myself psychologically for that to happen...

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w110pxp:

i live in Ohio, and yea BO has a lot of support, but i don't know if it's that much... there are still A LOT of evangelical nuts that will never vote for BO...

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Oldy75:

Can you feel it? Can you hear it coming? 62 in the Senate and over 350 in the electoral college, the landslide is upon us, the end of the conservative movement is here. The train is rolling and it is time to get onboard.

Get you Larry the Landslide Lizard stuff:

http://www.cafepress.com/buyobamacrap/6102934

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modrat:

I too have a hard time with these polls in Ohio. But stranger things have happend. There are two of them. And McCain is running such a poor campaign. I think some salt of the earth Ohioans may be looking at this "Joe the Plumber" as an insult to their values.

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MileHigh:

Pure fantasy. I'd love to believe the IN and OH numbers, but I can't. You shouldn't either, so vote already. I voted yesterday in CO. I don't think Obama will win here; thousands of voters have been purged. We have a cracker problem here, and I've learned to never underestimate the stupidity of my fellow Coloradoans.

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Trosen:

Not buying it. But with the way everything the McCain campaign touches seeming to quickly turn to crap, I guess it wouldn't shock me if the Joe the Plumber bit backfired the same way everything else has. But let's be real.. I'll have to see a good additional 3 or 4 polls showing anything close to that kind of spread to believe it.

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w110pxp:

i thought McCain had pulled out of Colorado...

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rami:

OMG i've seen the Big10 poll on RCP. BO is winning everywhere. OH +12, PA +11, MI +22 ( a state Mccain hoped to flip two months ago!!), MN +19, WI +13, IA +13, IN +10 (!!!), IL +29.

Add to that Quinninpiac and Yesterday's CNN. Unless the polls are all going berzerks, it'll be a landslide.
350 EV's seems possible.

The consequences could be huge for GOP.

If mccain loses by a hair, nothing will happen, the reps will just eat their hat and wait untill '12 to send Romney or someone else.

But if it's a huge defeat, even worst than 1996, we could imagine the republican party will "think about its identity", reconsider political platform and strategy.

Perharps go back to something close to Eisenhower than Bush.

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Kane:

Could this be the real "Joe the Plumber" effect? Maybe people are smarter than McCain/Palin believe them to be? I don't think its this high in OH, but maybe the wheels have completely come off the bus.

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Florida Obamocon:

First time poster here, thanks for all the entertainment in the last couple of months boom, kip, southern. BTW alankeys, you are absolutely hilarious.

This race is breaking for the following reasons.

1. Sarah Palin. She is all fluff and no substance, no amount of spin is going to convince the electorate otherwise.

2. Michele Bachman. This crazy bitch actually believes what she is saying. The electorate in general is starting to believe that that is what Republicans are about.

3. Joe the Plumber. He lied. He misrepresented himself. McCain and company makes him a hero, everyone but the wing-nuts knows he is full of ****.

4. McCain on negative campaigning. "He is a terrorist", Obama "He is erratic". Then McCain points the finger for Obama being more negative. What a crock of ****.

The whole McCain campaign is based on feeding us an unending stream of bull****. It is as if he thinks the whole country watches Fox News.

A landslide is a very real possibility.

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IMind:

If these Ohio numbers are real then it's one of two things: Colin Powell is the single biggest endorsement get in the history of presidential elections or.... people really friggen hate Neiman Marcus. :-D

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SoloBJ:

@ Milehigh,
That is how I feel. The polls look great for Obama although I question a few like the Ohio and Indiana polls which I don't believe. The key for Obama is having his supporters actually come out on election day and vote! History has shown that youth turnout isn't that high although I hear O has a great GOTV effort.

Also, is anyone else concerned about all the talk with regard to voter suppression, reports of votes for Obama going to McCain, election being stolen, etc? I'm optimistic about an Obama win but still wary.

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bpd1069:

@NYCREALAMERICAN

It's the economy stupid!

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w110pxp:

7500 people are gonna lose their jobs now that DHL in Wilmington OH is gonna close, a few months ago the GM plant in Murrain closed, before that delphi, and honda might be moving to canada... People here are scared

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bpd1069:

@rami 350 is pretty much in the bag (barring a terrorist attack) - I think there is a chance at getting 390-400

I just want to know if McCain can keep AZ in his column come Nov 4th.

Second thing I am looking for is 60 Dem senators...

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Dan:

I hope the FL number is true.
I live in Fl and would love for it to go blue

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DTM:

It is not that hard to tell a plausible story about why states like Ohio and Indiana would be breaking to Obama, both for fundamental reasons (e.g., the economy, likeability, and so forth) and recent events (e.g., the robocalls, Bachmann, $150,000, Powell, and so forth).

That said, I'm personally waiting for more than these two polls to confirm that dynamic.

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MarylandDad51:

Ohio internals show Obama winning Kerry voters by a net margin of 80 percent, while McCain only wins Bush 2004 voters by a net of 63 percent. Since Bush only won Ohio by 2 points in 2004, this translates to a 7 percentage point margin for Obama AMONG THOSE WHO VOTED IN 2004. Since we know that Obama has a big lead among likely first-time voters, this suggests that the Obama lead in Ohio is likely 9-11 points even after you adjust for Quinnipiac oversampling Democrats. I'll take that!

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MarylandDad51:

Hhmm, if the numbers on election night are this good, my kids may be able to stay up late enough to see Obama win the election :)

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CTPonix4BHObama:

@DTM

I agree with you completely, i'm suprised to hear how many people here dont believe quinnipiac and big10. For these Q polls there are huge samples and very small MOE, I heard the crosstabs on party i.d. may be wrong but what is the ACTUAL party weighting in the state?

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ctj:

Wasn't there a suffolk u poll from about a week ago showing Obama with a large lead in OH?

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terrapinwill:

Now here are three polls that from a statistical point of view are probably spot on. The MOE tells me that these polls stand a good chance of being very accurate.

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Ryan in MO:

I think these polls are just a dose of reality for what the actual election will look like.

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Chenna:

Wow, Just when the polls last week were showing a tightening in the BIG O, two new reliable polls show Obama sprinting way ahead. This race is still not over yet. Lets not forget to vote.

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Ryan in MO:

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Obama will carry 35-40 states come Election Day. In fact I think there are really only two states that Obama has not even a remote chance of carrying... UT and ID. Probably not AL,TN, WY. I think AZ is doable and AK if they wake back up and take a good hard look at their governer/VP nominee.

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adocarbog:

PPP hints their OH poll this week is 8-9% for Obama (closer to Suffolk that Quin.)
Also last week Tom Jensen blogged that OH should be a much easier state for Obama to win than Florida, although he seems to be doing well in both.
Also explains why one day polls favor McCain and multiple day polls (with call backs) favor Obama.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

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ruyen:

If anyone heard Democracy Now's show yesterday, you'll know that voting machines are already flipping Obama votes to McCain and the move to steal the election (like Ohio's hundreds of thousands of lost votes in 2004) is already in motion.

Point being: Don't let up, continue to donate/volunteer, and don't get content, even if Obama goes up 20pts in every single state please keep working towards victory.

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joethedummer:

lol

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decided:

I feel pity for McCan't, look at today's results:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/

everything blue.
Can't we have some Wyoming poll to not completely frustrate them?

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Stonecreek:

How can any poll test those who voted for Bush in 2004? I can't find ANYONE who will admit voting for Bush in 2004!

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ruyen

That's a hell of a lot of votes they're gonna have to flip for McCain. Ugh what a scary thought!

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rawlings:

@Florida Obamacon

Stop being such a dramaqueen. This election has very little to do with Sarah Palin or an unknown Minnesota congresswoman. Vice presidential candidates VERY rarely have a discernible effect on a campaign, and this year is no different. McCain could have picked Ghandi and I'm pretty sure Obama would still have a pretty easy road to victory. As tempting as it may be to blame everything on the conservatives you hate most, the reality is that Obama has run a pretty decent campaign in one of the worst years in recent history for the GOP. I'm actually surprised that the old guy has hung tough for this long.

The reality is, it's not "progressive-minded America" hating on Palin and the conservative movement that's giving Obama the win--it's a pretty lousy year for Republicans and a pretty good candidate in Obama.

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TJIRISH34:

I think it's hilarious the soo called "liberal MSM who wants Obama to win" is trying to sell news and ratings on this election. HOW YOU ASK? That AP poll showing Obama up 44-43 and basically race is tied by likely votes. Has anyone noticed how this poll has been pushed in MSM? It's to sell ratings. Does anyone other than a GOP hardliner buy that ONE poll? IF you discount this poll then it's looks like comfortable lead for Obama in other polls. Which could lead to less interest. If Obama wins big Nov 4th remember that poll It will be proven as maanipulation.

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TJIRISH34:

As a Hoosier I hope Obama wins Indiana. I don't know if I buy a 10 pt obama lead. However McCain campaign originally said it was not worried about Indiana. Did nothing. Then RNC bought AD time, Palin visited and now McCain buying time. Palin visiting again. Obama has been here including primary like 50 times now. One thing Hoosiers appreciate is some national love on any level. Obama coming here so many times with large rally's is appreciated. So maybe he does have that lead in Indiana.

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TJIRISH34:

Rawlings, I pretty much agree with your assessment. I do think if as these polls show... Obama wins big. The Monday Morning quarterbacking will look back and assess the mistakes Mccain camapign made. One being Sarah Palin. She was never vetted properly and it showed. At first glance Sarah sounded too good be true for GOP and she never lived up to the reformer hype. Sarah is good at image. What I bet galls mcCain is it's obvious to me Sarah is using McCain to help Sarah. McCain go back to senate while already talk Sarah actually may try run in 2012. She is very ambitious and has her fan club.

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rer2174:

What a shame that it has taken an economic meltdown of the entire world to finally dislodge this administration from its hold on the electorate.

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rer2174:

What a shame that it has taken an economic meltdown of the entire world to end the grip of this current administration on the electorate.

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