Pollster.com

State polls are all that matters, and all polls released today, and this week for that matter show Obama leading in the RED battlegrounds. Most notably OHIO by large margins. Obama needs just ONE and it's done. McCain needs all of them.

OH, FL, CO, VA, NC, MO, IN, etc.

Massive turnout on election day, so be prepared to wait in long lines. Or better yet, vote early if you can! This will be historic.

STILL WAITING!!!!

To all the wingnuts screaming today: Prove your confidence in a McCain win. Show us your purchase from Intrade today. You'll be swimming in money since you are so sure he will win. Proof is in the pudding, my friends. Scan your purchase on intrade and post it on a free image host site. Cross out any personal information, (have to tell the less educated that) but make sure it proves a McCain purchase from today. Easy money, right???

Just saying something doesn't make it true. Show us your confidence instead of just SPIN.

The only polls that matter are state polling, along with GOTV. If McCain does not have GOTV in place in these tossup states, he loses on election day.

@icebergslim:

Here in NC local repugs I've talked to are absolutely shocked by the size and scope and energy of the Obama GOTV operation. They have never confronted anything like it before, and don't have anything to match, they say. They never expected NC to be in play.

These polls are a bit dated...they began a week ago. I would focus more on the national trendlines now to see how quick (or if) they're closing for McCain. Perhaps the biggest number to watch is Obama's support level and whether that can hold above 50.

StandardDeviation:
"These polls are a bit dated...they began a week ago. I would focus more on the national trendlines now to see how quick (or if) they're closing for McCain. Perhaps the biggest number to watch is Obama's support level and whether that can hold above 50."

No.. national polls are meaningless unless the crucial state polls corroborate the "movement." TX getting redder or NY getting bluer mean nothing.

Old? ROFL The last date of polling on these was 3 days ago. I love the notion that the public will WILDLY swing one way or another with 3 business days left.:)

Good thing McFossil is spending all of that time in PA..it's certainly paying off for him....oh wait...

Great new Obama ad blasting McFossil (in his own words) about his lack of knowledge on the economy..they throw in trailer trash barbie too...excellent!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/29/new-obama-ad-goes-after-m_n_138811.html

@ oicu:

Have you read the fivethirtyeight.com blog post from Raleigh? It really highlights the contrast on the ground there between the two camps.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-raleigh-north-carolina.html

"As is our usual custom, we stopped into the state headquarters for both campaigns, in Raleigh. We went to the Republican HQ first, and as we suspected, it was almost entirely empty of workers. The large room holding many tables of sophisticated phones had two lonely women sitting together making dials. It was Saturday in the early evening, with college football playing on the dial room's TV. Georgia comfortably led LSU in a game the Bulldogs eventually won.

No communications people were there to talk to, but what was there to say about the ground effort? With ten days to go in a pure tossup state, two dialers? In the HQ? What comment could spin that?

The Democratic HQ across town was much busier. When Republican offices are empty and shutting down, 7:30 pm in an Obama HQ or field office is only just past the halfway point of the workday."

Sorry, I just do not believe a 9 point lead in OHIO for Obama whne the national polls are tied. Just dont believe it.

OHIO CORRUPTION:
Now that a liberal judge in OH has ruled that homeless people can list "a park bench" as their home address and people can register and vote the same day, what is to stop democrats from bussing millions of voters in from out of state to claim they are homeless and vote for Obama?

There is NO way to check it.

What utter f*cking bullsh*t.

Yep, I just noticed that. These polls weer taken BEFORE the big McCain surge nationally.

Nope, fail.

LOL, typical Republican, trying to find excuses to disenfranchise poor people because poor people might actually want to vote for somebody who gives a **** about them.

YOu've got to have an IQ of 2 and be frat boy age to mimic someone else's ID.

Geeze, talking about leting the Boom now he gets under your skin

First, there is no big McCain surge. However, the polls are tightening. Plus, those that say state polls are lagging are just ridiculous. We get state polls everyday now. On the state level, things are leveling out. I feel this is the case nationally also. Let's face it, Obama was never going to win the popular vote by 8-10%. It will probably settle out at around 3-5%. McCain is NOT going to win the popular vote, but he can still win this election. It will get interesting going down to the line.

@tarheel

I would actually argue the opposite. I think that McCain could possibly win the popular vote, if he gets a massive outpouring of the conservative base in already red states, BUT he WILL NOT win the election. The electoral math just makes it way to difficult.

It will be closer than it is now...I predict around 280-290 EVs for Obama...

Am I alone in not being incredibly pessimistic and predicting 353-364 EVs for Obama? And LOL at boom****.

Boom... I see you've come out and said it: Homeless people do not deserve to vote.

If your side is ever on the "I hope nobody votes in this election" or the "quality of votes over quantity of votes" side, I'd argue that you are anti-democracy.

And I think it's a pretty easy argument to win.

@ viper

I don't want to be too optimistic...I don't care how many EVs he gets. Just > 270!!

Boom.
"what is to stop democrats from bussing millions of voters in from out of state to claim they are homeless and vote for Obama?"

1. HAVA- all voters must be registered by 30 days before an election.
2. Ohio Law requires Voter ID:
Specifically, a registered voter is entitled to cast a regular ballot, if he or she provides one of the following documents at the polls:

* A current driver's license or photo ID (issued under 4507.50 of the Ohio Revised Code), whether or not it has the voter’s current address. If the address is not current, the voter may be asked to provide the last four digits of his or her driver's license or photo ID number.
* Other current photo ID issued by the federal or state government showing the voter’s name and current address.
* A military ID with the voter’s name and current address.
* A utility bill, bank statement, government check, pay check, or other government document that shows the voter’s name and current address. A mailed registration notice from the board of elections will not suffice.

The scenario you propose is impossible. You and the rest of the GOP are whining about a fake crisis.

Gaulio: True. Really, all he needs is one of these states: VA, CO, NC, FL, OH, MO, IN, or, on a more unlikely note, GA. Just one of those guarantees him victory. My most pessimistic prediction is 273 EVs.

Boom - did you go to college?

A serious question.

I SO TOTALLY agree with you boom.

Why should the people most affected by the economic crisis have any say in who decides the economic policy for the next 8 years. I mean come on, for over a decade now we've been trying to cage (block) voters from voting when they may have moved, or are fighting in Iraq or Afgh, or lost they're home in the Mortgage Meltdown and no longer have an address to answer mail from. Now Ohio comes along and ruins all our plans for stealing the election by letting the homeless vote. Next thing you know they'll be letting soldiers vote by absentee ballot even though they aren't home to answer the confirmation email the GOP sends out to them. Instead of John Mccain saying "we can't allow leftist groups like ACORN steal this election." He should've said "we cant let voters decide this election". In the words of the GOP hero Paul Weyrich: "They want everybody to vote! I don’t want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of people – they never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections, quite candidly, goes up as the voting populace goes down."

Acting conservative just gave me a headache.

No wonder they're so angry all the time.

"from bussing millions of voters in from out of state to claim they are homeless and vote for Obama?"

Reality, boom. That's what prevents it from happening. (http://www.onelook.com/?w=reality&ls=a)

John McCain is willing to spend $10 billions in Iraq and would not commit to use that money here in the US. For somebody who said "Country First", it is really Iraq first.

@K Johnson

You got that right. But he wold probably add that Halliburton is getting some of that cash and that it therefore trickles down to Tito the brick layer when the CEO of Halliburton gets an extension added onto his house and to Joe the plumber when the CEOs toilet backs up. There are scenarios by which giving the money to drug lords in Afganistan as part of our counterinsurgency strategy in fighting Al Qaeda results in heroin comes back to Ray Ray the crackhead pot dealer in the form of cash for the heroin which is sold to Joe the plumber.

It's the McCain 6 degrees of separation between us and our tax payer money.

what's your view, Boomshak- that homeless people shouldn't be allowed to vote? I certainly don't want any fraud either, but there has to be a better way of preventing it than denying homeless people the right to vote.

was I taking Boom too seriously in my last post? sounds like drational is on the case?

Ohio 1,425 LV, 2.6%
Obama 51, McCain 42

The Democratic presidential candidate up +9 in Ohio less than a week before the election?! This is unheard of! Particularly when you consider that Ohio is an early voting state and a lot of people are voting now and not on election day. McCain needs to hope there is a huge Bradley effect on election day there.