Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

Quinnipiac: FL, OH, PA (9/27-29)


Quinnipiac University
9/27-29 (Post Debate) and 9/22-26 (Pre-Debate)
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Sample sizes listed below are from post-debate samples

Florida (836 LV, +/-2.9%)
Post Debate: Obama 51, McCain 43
Pre Debate: Obama 49, McCain 43
(9/9: Obama 43, McCain 50)

Ohio (825 LV, +/-3.4%)
Post Debate: Obama 50, McCain 42
Pre Debate: Obama 49, McCain 42
(9/9: Obama 49, McCain 44)

Pennsylvania: (832 LV, +/-3.4%)
Post Debate: Obama 54, McCain 39
Pre Debate: Obama 49, McCain 43
(9/9: Obama 48, McCain 45)

 

Comments
macsuk:

I am sure boomshak will be able to explain how this poll is biased against the "flat earth society".

____________________

Holy @#$%! You can see a trend from 9/9 to before the debate and then even more of a bump after that. I think we are beyond any doubt now who "won" the debate.

____________________

sunnymi:


Great numbers for Obama....He reached/crossed 50% in all 3 states. Probably a first as far as OH is concerned in any poll I have seen thus far.

I think it is high time PA comes off the toss-up list to Lean Obama....the last 5 polls show him leading there by an average of 7 points.

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

I don't buy it for a second. I know, I know, Quinnipiac is an excellent pollster, but these numbers are simply too good for Obama to believe.

____________________

@C.S.:

As is often said, seeing the internals would be very helpful. PA is just odd. +3 to +15 in three weeks is just too much to swallow. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Obama ahead in all three states (given recent events), but the margins look wide.

____________________

boomshak:

This Poll is rediculous:

Rasmussen from yesterday:
PA: O+8
OH: M+1
FL: Tied

Hey, it's close, they only overshoot by an average of 8 points.

Why, do you ask?

Well, both McCain and Obama get about equal amounts of partisans, but Quinnipiac gives Obama 2:1 support amongst Indepedents.

Yesterday, ABC/Post said "McCain leads by 3 amongst Independents". Quinnipiac has Obama leading by over 20 amongst the same group.

To quote John Boehner:

"This poll is a crap sandwich".

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

McCain needs to cross PA off his list and pour resources into OH and FL, because if he loses either one, it's over.

Of course, fighting for PO and OH leaves him wide open in VA, CO, NH, NV and NC and we know what that means....

____________________

The_Huntsman:

Whoa -- this is kind of a shocker. SUSA and Ras both had FL and OH even at the same time, so this has to be an outlier. PA I can believe a little more readily, it makes sense that Obama would be pulling out ahead there.

____________________

sunnymi:

boomshak, you were against ABC/Post (last week) before you are for it (this week) :-)

Isn't it an apples to oranges comparision?
ABC/Post was a national poll and Quinnipiac is a state poll.

Even if you do not agree with the Quinnipiac numbers their trend is in the same direction....even the Rasmussen numbers quoted by you show the same trend towards Obama, don't they?

____________________

sunnymi:


Here is the link to the poll's internals:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218

____________________

boomshak:

@The_Huntsman:

"Whoa -- this is kind of a shocker. SUSA and Ras both had FL and OH even at the same time, so this has to be an outlier. PA I can believe a little more readily, it makes sense that Obama would be pulling out ahead there."

Yep, it's shocking because it is bullsh*t.

____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, Ras polls were all done on a single night (Sunday) with smaller sample sizes whereas Quinnipiac did 2 sets of polls before and after the debate each spanning 3 days with larger sample sizes.

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

"boomshak, you were against ABC/Post (last week) before you are for it (this week) :-)"

Last week they gave dems a 16 point sampling advantage, this week they gave them a 7 point advantage.

Next question...

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

c'mon man. These numbers are EXTREME OUTLIERS no matter how you slice it and completely contradicted by national polls.

three-ringed-circus-fail.

____________________

sunnymi:

Rasmussen found last week a huge variation between polling the same state on a weekend vs a weekday when they polled FL, OH, PA and VA and found a swing towards Obama of 5 points or more in just 3 days or less. How do you explain that?

____________________

boomshak:

It really is too bad the news will be reporting this steaming pile all day as "factual".

____________________

Flashlight:

For once in my life, I kind of agree with Boomshak. This poll looks like a genie from a magic lamp gave me three wishes.

But then again... what if it's right? It does confirm Diageo/Hotline's poll from yesterday that Obama had surged to +10 in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/30/diageohotline_obama_surges_in_battleground_states.html

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "c'mon man. These numbers are EXTREME OUTLIERS no matter how you slice it and completely contradicted by national polls."

During the 7 day period when Quinnipiac did these polls Obama's lead in the national tracking polls has steadily increased from an average of 2 points to over 6 points.

You can disagree with the actual numbers but look at the trend :-)

____________________

boomshak:

@macsuk:

"Gee boomcrap we knew you would explain it to us. I think it was you who said the ABC poll was crap a week ago."

Lol, ok I will explain it again for the mentally challenged. The ABC Poll WAS crap a week ago because their sample was crap.

Are you getting that yet? Do I need to use smaller words?

This time, ABC used a more reasonable (albeit still high) dem sample.

____________________

vmval1:

So ... I can't find the internals on the Quinnipiac. Am I being blind or have they not provided them?

I'm guessing this has a pretty heavy dem weighting. I'm optimistic and hopeful, but not THIS optimistic and hopeful.

____________________

VermontWisdom:

I actually think that the well read Josephine six pack will help McCain close those gaps dramatically if they can just move the debate to the shore of the Mississippi River and confine the topics to Moose hunting and snow machine races. She'll smoke Biden. Otherwise............ouch. McCain supporters, I feel your pain. I actually feel sorry for you guys. Well not really.

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

You trend was Obama, now it's McCain. Obama has fallen from a one day poll on Gallup of around +10 (or more) to yesterday of about +4 (or less).

SUMMARY:
Obama peaked with the economic mess and has fallen back as that has gotten better.

____________________

carl29:

I really AGREE with the outlier argument. However, the one thing is more than clear: PA is slipping away from the McCain column, faster than you can say "McSame." I don't think that Obama is up by %, but 7% or 8% sounds quite right, compared to Allentown tracking poll and Franklin&Marshall. So, this is by and in itself great news for Barack. As oppose to McCain, who still is struggling to bring "home" fairly republican states, Obama is taking off the table democratic/Kerry states. More and more it is clear that the toss-up states are coming from McCain/Bush's column.

Again, I DO AGREE that Ohio and Florida polls are outliers; however, these polls underscore that fact that Obama has indeed made up ground in both places compared to the previous survey. Of course he hasn't made up the ground that these polls suggest, but he is no longer trailing. In my opinion Ohio and Florida is indeed a dead heat, which is good news for Barack because both states are McCain/Bush's states.

I agree with the person that said that McCain made a big mistake by obsessing with PA and leaving so many of Bush's states to Obama. Now, he has not secured NC, CO, VA, NV, FL, OH. McCain should have secured Bush's states first and then move on to trying to pick up other Obama/Kerry states.

____________________

vmval1:

Daily Kos:

51 - 41

Obama polled 9 points up last night - down 2 from the previous 2 days.


____________________

boomshak:

LET'S PLAY "PICK THE OUTLIER":

Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama

Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 832 LV 54 39 Obama +15
Franklin & Marshall 09/23 - 09/28 767 RV 45 38 Obama +7
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 50 42 Obama +8
Morning Call 09/25 - 09/29 601 LV 49 41 Obama +8

Ohio: McCain vs. Obama

SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 50 42 Obama +8
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 47 45 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 48 McCain +1

Florida: McCain vs. Obama

Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 836 LV 51 43 Obama +8
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 941 LV 49 46 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 47 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 47 48 McCain +1
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 45 48 McCain +3

Fail. Next.

____________________

boomshak:

@carl29:

After all the girations, 2008 will probably look much like 2004.

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

"After all the girations, 2008 will probably look much like 2004."

Are you willing to bet? Your predictions have a very low conversion rate so far, so do you want to up the ante?

____________________

boomshak:

JUST RELEASED! DEBATE PREVIEW QUESTIONS FOR THIRSDAY NIGHT:

Ifill: Governor Palin, given our current economic crisis, can you briefly describe and compare the benefits of applying an Austrian School economic approach vs. that of the Stockholm School. Specifically, please juxtapose Ludwig von Mises’s “value-free” praxeology against Myrdal and Ohlin’s “third way”?

Ifill: Senator Biden, how do you keep your blue socks from getting mixed up with the green ones?

____________________

thirdparty:

@boomshak:

Stop. Repeating. That. Stupid. Assertion. That. Obama. Got. Plus. Eleven. On. Saturday. In. Gallup.

Can I remind you that you already agreed with sunnymi's analysis that he probably got around +5 on Saturday in Gallup? Which is even more extraordinary than if you'd agreed with my analysis saying Obama got +9 in Gallup on Saturday.

____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, There is another reason why ABC/WP poll was a little less bad for McCain....it is not just he party ID but the % of whites in the sample was increased from 74% to 79% as well....Exit polls for 2004 show 77% whites and I think you would agree that the % of whites in this year's voters will be lesser than that and not greater!

I was only pointing out the tracking poll trend during the days this Q poll was taken. if the numbers change later how can a poll that already is complete account for it.

As far as daily tracking numbers go, sure the peak Obama had during last week into the weekend might wane a bit this week but you can only call it in favor of McCain when his numbers pick up as well.

____________________

boomshak:

@thirdparty:

I have discounted you as mentally deficient. I have tried, but you are hopeless.

____________________

punkkid:
____________________

boomshak:

THIRSDAY = THURSDAY.

I really can spell, just too lazy to proofread :)

____________________

Flashlight:

Outlier or not, it does make a pretty picture over at RCP:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

____________________

carl29:

Iowa...2004 Bush...2008Obama
NewMexico...2004Bush....2008Obama
Colorado....2004Bush...2008Tossup/Obama*
VA....2004Bush......2008Tossup
NC...2004Bush....2008Tossup/McCain*

Obama already has 2 Bush states in the bag: Iowa and New Mexico. Colorado, although a tossup, is closer to Obama's bag than McCain's. CO+IA+NM= 21EV

____________________

sunnymi:


Boomshak, regarding the VP debate could you please keep your hyperventilation down till the actual debate happens and there is some bias shown by the moderator. It sounds to me as if you are preparing the ground to offer it as an excuse come Friday morning.

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

boomshak: "JUST RELEASED! DEBATE PREVIEW QUESTIONS FOR THIRSDAY NIGHT:"

If you reversed those questions, Palin still couldn't give a coherent question.

She couldn't even give the name of one magazine or newspaper she reads. Not one.

____________________

Wow. If these polls are even remotely close to the actual numbers, you can stick a fork in McCain. He is done.

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak you said, "LET'S PLAY "PICK THE OUTLIER":"

The reason you look at the polls now is to pick a trend not absolute numbers.

Absolute numbers become important only when each pollster comes out with their final numbers for comparison with the actual results come election day.

____________________

carl29:

4 years ago:

Florida:

Quinnipiac | 10/1-10/5 717 LV 3.7
Bush 51 Kerry 44 - Bush +7

Pennsylvania:

Quinnipiac | 10/9-10/11 1343 LV 2.7
Bush 47 Kerry 49 - Kerry +2

Quinnipiac | 9/22-9/26 726 LV 3.6
Bush 46 Kerry 49 - Kerry +3

____________________

@boomshack

You should feel honored. I've been reading this site for quite some time, and have never bothered to register. I generally enjoy the contacts, minus the obvious partisan hacks on both sides.

On to why you should feel honored: I registered just for you...so I could publicly ridicule you. Maybe these polls are right or maybe they aren't, but good god man do you even TRY to look at things from an unbiased, partisan free perspective?

You ruin the discussion here. Your comments and slams at people are usually so childish that it marginalizes you and no one can possibly take you seriously even when you make valid points. Example: "Lol, ok I will explain it again for the mentally challenged....Are you getting that yet? Do I need to use smaller words?"

Grow up man, you're not doing yourself or your candidate any favors by acting like a hormonal 7th grader pissed off because things aren't going the way you want them to. It's fine to be angry and annoyed, but at least bump the conversational skills up to a High School level.

____________________

punkkid:
____________________

StuffOfInterest:

@Beaupedia:

**RAPTUROUS APPLAUSE**

____________________

rdw4potus:

It's obviously true that there are structural differences between polls. Some of is are more inclined to think that Quinnipac is correct, some of us are more likely to think that Moore Information is the gold standard. Regardless of a pollster's initial lean, what is interesting (and, in this case, the entire reason for the polling) is the CHANGE in the numbers over time.

If the test is to gauge a difference in response to the same questions over time,
another pollster doing this same polling should show the same delta, just a different starting point.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

About time we paint them blue, don't you think Pollster.com?!?!?

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Chuck Todd on MSNBC just said NBC has a new poll to confirm what we already know: Newly registered voters favor Obama 61 to 30. Indiana alone has over 500,000 new voters.

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

Eternal:

These polls beg one question.


What the heck was McCain doing in IA?

It's like he's one of the old string tops. Remember, pull the string and they move smoothly across the floor until they are just about to stop then they bounce, sputter, kick from side to side, that's what McCain's looks like right now.

____________________

drinkwine247:

Hey Boomspank,

If your back hurts from carrying all that water for McPasty, I have a great Chiropractor and Accupuncturist for ya!!!!!

Good luck getting through life without everyone laughing at you.

____________________

Hoosier:

I think I'd rather eat a steaming turd sandwich than say this, but I agree with Boomer. Our resident knuckle-walker is probably right (maybe "far right"?) when he says that these polls are probably outliers.

I think that Obama has probably now pulled safely ahead in PA. Gramps and Caribou Barbie have wasted a LOT of time and money here, which makes me happy. That, in turn, has left NC, IN, VA, OH, FL, and maybe MO unprotected and ripe for Obama pick-ups.

I want to see more polling from FL and OH before I pop the champagne. We could be heading for an Obama blow-out in the Electoral Vote much like the Clinton romp of 1992.

____________________

douglasfactors:

boomshak:

You trend was Obama, now it's McCain. Obama has fallen from a one day poll on Gallup of around +10 (or more) to yesterday of about +4 (or less).

Are you ever right about anything?

Yesterday Obama gained in Rasmussen, Hotline, and R2K.

____________________

drinkwine247:

Beaupedia,

I wonder if Boom is actually a Liberal Dem, that makes us think he is a rethuglican just so we hate on them even more.

____________________

Rames1980:

I wonder what McCain's next attention-grabbing stunt will be. Marrying off Palin's daughter isn't going to do the trick, so he'll have to do something more dramatic such as have Bush arrange a conflict in the Middle-East. (although that might have the mob drag Bush out of the White House)

At some point the republicans need to realize that they have to accept defeat in this election, rather than drag the campaign to such mud that their reputation will be irreversibly lost even in Utah. They do plan to contest future elections as well, after all.

Boomshak: Recent national polls have had Obama up 9-10 points, so these aren't "contradicted by the national polls". However it should be kept in mind that there are 2 variables here and the MoE applies to both. If the MoE is 3 points and there is a 6-point margin between the candidates, it means there is a 0.06 % chance the real support is in fact the other way around.

____________________

drinkwine247:

Rames,


McCain should suspend his campaign until January 21st for the good of the country!

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

"You ruin the discussion here."

I agree. Quite frankly I think it's time for the mods to toss him off the site.

____________________

macsuk:

I am sure if they were outliers by 5-6 % the Oboma camp would still be very happy.

____________________

rami:

Q :
What the heck was McCain doing in IA?

A :
Looking for a retirement home.

____________________

Eternal:

@ Rames,

We all know their next step...

Wright
Ayers
ect..ect..

They can't win on the merits of their ideas so they are going to try and filth things up.


The good news, If the Republicans has 200M to spend they could not give Wright more coverage than he has already gotten. They will rightly just look desperate, those who will not vote for Obama due to Wright are already voting for McCain.

____________________

vmval1:

Toss him off the site??? Are you kidding?!? Who the hell are we going to gloat over on the 4th of Nov?

____________________

Ryan in MO:

landslide is right. i bet, come election day, at least one or two southern or mid-western red states go in Obama's favor. Mississippi? South Carolina? Kansas? Nebraska? I could see it.

____________________

sherman:

@boomshak

Let me help you out a little bit. The word is "ridiculous", not "rediculous". The word is "gyrations", not "girations".

I agree these are outliers, much as I would like to believe them. It can't be good for McCain, who may very well swing back into this thing, that there is now early voting in Ohio when he is probably at his weakest position in a while.

____________________

Flashlight:

vmval1:
"Toss him off the site??? Are you kidding?!? Who the hell are we going to gloat over on the 4th of Nov?"

Hear hear! But why wait until November? The Ohio supreme court has upheld early gloating.

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

"Toss him off the site??? Are you kidding?!? Who the hell are we going to gloat over on the 4th of Nov?"

I'd rather have an intellectually stimulating debate here and now than gloat later on.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Research 2000 has Obama up 10 points again today.

____________________

vmval1:

@ Flashlight:

i want to wait until the 4th of Nov. because being a dem, I naturally hope for the best and expect the worst. Also, we've voted Bush in twice, so I don't put anything beyond our fellow Americans.

Having said that, the Ohio ruling helps me sleep better at night. :)

____________________

Rames1980:

Guys, "outlier" is a bit of a strong word when discussing opinion polls - it would imply that the correct procedure would be to disregard it. Fluctuations are inherent in the nature of statistical sampling and that the numbers don't follow smooth, logical lines is something that we have to accept. Having many polls much alleviates the situation and they should be looked at together, not with an eye to disqualifying some of the data points.

____________________

PHGrl:

Welcome Beaupedia!!!

and Boomshak-come Nov 4th, it will be clear who the "OUTLIER" was-- YOU!

____________________

macsuk:

Has anyone else noticed that the more Bill Clinton compliments John McCain, and the more McCain attempts to use Bill Clinton's words to his advantage, the more Obama increases his lead? Hmm...

____________________

dopper0189:

South Eastern Ohio tends to vote like WV, South Western like KT. As Obama numbers in WV have surged form getting blown out by McCain (-15%) to just getting beat (-5%). You could see a similar movement in Southern Ohio.

North Eastern Ohio is like Mich. Western is like IN. As Obama went from a narrow lead in Mich to a sizeable lead (2% --> 8%), you would expect a similar lead in NE Ohio. Same for western Ohio, his numbers in IN went from down 6% to toss up.

I have said a number of times when people laugh and say "what dumb f@ck polled Kentucky?" this is why. When you see "surges" in states that "circle around" a state. You start to expect to see a surge in that state. Obama making WV respectable mean South East Ohio MUST be doing better for him. Since he has improved by +5% in all those states around Ohio he is at least +5% IN Ohio.

____________________

carl29:

"What was McCain doing in IA?"

This is exactly what I, along with a whole bunch of people-including Republican strategists-, was wondering yesterday.

I think that McCain knows that he has a lot of ground to cover in less than 35 days and doesn't know where to start.

____________________

jamesia:

I heard about McCain heavily campaigning in Iowa today on NPR. After seeing these polls, and others that show Obama gaining in Florida & Ohio, you have to wonder what McCain is doing. The gains by Obama in Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina last week should have been sign enough for McCain to get back to winnable states.

____________________

terrapinwill:

I think Obama ahead in FLA by that margin is very unlikely. Obama ahead in PA is very likely, and the Ohio numbers, well those are tough to say anything about. Personally I think one cannot ignore the increased registration and that the early voting is going to be strongly Obama.

Florida numbers are the only one that are very suspicious to me.

____________________

rdw4potus:

I really do think we'll see Obama take 1 or 2 EV from NE (NE1 and NE2 should both be pretty competitive). Really, that could go a long way to countering the potential loss of NH on the electoral map in the event that Obama can't pull off a landslide.

____________________

JCK:

Frankly, I'm going to agree with Boom.

I think the trends are clearly favoring Obama, but not by this much.

I do wonder if Obama has taken a small lead in FL. Last week I thought McCain had about a 1 point lead, now the last five Florida polls (chronologically starting with the oldest) are McCain +1, +1, tie, -3, -8.

PA is probably out of reach for McCain.

I think the jury is still out on OH, but until I see another poll, I think it still favors McCain, by a small margin.

____________________

JCK:

Obama fans, the RCP "no tossup states" Map is pretty tasty about now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

____________________

vmval1:

what time does hotline release?

____________________

jamesia:

I'm not sure if I buy an 8 point Obama lead in Florida. However, looking at the polls that have come out by date, it's clear McCain is in real trouble there. Obama is likely ahead in Florida by 3 or 4 I'd say.

Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 51-43 Obama +8
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 49-46 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 47-47 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 47-48 McCain +1
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 45-48 McCain +3

____________________

tjampel:

Economy-FL

LIKELY VOTERS Obama is Top Number
PreDeb POST DEBATE ..........................
Tot Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom


50% 53% 16% 85% 52% 48% 57%
40% 39% 78% 10% 35% 44% 33%
DK/NA
10% 9% 6% 5% 13% 8% 10&

I think this says it all. Forget about oversampling one demographic or another; just look at difference between Repubs and Dems on this issue and Indies. Obama is benefiting from the current crisis and McCain has Failed.

Also Palin's negatives among repubs are climbing and they are pretty horrific among Indies.

This is repeated in other states. Doesn't mean Obama is up this high in these states; unlikely, but the sentiment of Repubs shown in the crosstabs is shocking. Also there is a trend showing that higher numbers of Repubs are jumping ship than a few weeks ago, while Dems continue to consolidate in the upper 80s. Repubs were around 90% recently but that's dropped.

____________________

carl29:

McCain should have fought, since the beginning, for all the Bush's states. Forget about extending the map. Now we are less than 35 days for the election, with some states like Ohio in early voting already, and here is McCain struggling to secure Bush's states and no threating any Kerry state, except for New Hampshire with its 4EV. As opposed to Obama with some Bush's states already in the bag and threating McCain in CO that Bush won by 5%, NV that Bush won by 3%, VA that Bush won by 8%, NC that Bush won by 12%, FL that Bush won by 5%.

____________________

Shaft:

Also interesting are McCain's overall numbers in the states polled. They have not changed from pre-to-post debate in OH and FL. This implies that he has the support of the 42-43%, and strong.
There has been some blog buzz that the Mac camp is about to release some 'damning' evidence they have against Barack, or that some event is about to occur that will put the Captain and Tenille over the 50% mark!
May just be bluster, but I don't put anything beyond the Redumblicans.

____________________

tjampel:

That is....look at how 16% of Repubs favor Obama to handle the Economy. When economic issues are paramount, as in...right now...this is so telling

____________________

carl29:

I'm still waiting for Michelle's "whitey video" :-) or Bill Clinton's horrible evidence of I can't even remember what :-)

____________________

1magine:

When I saw the SUSA internals JM getting 15% AA I knew a top pollster (Q being among the best in the rust belt)would have a much better BO result. Since the race still has 5 weeks to go, nothing is over yet - - NOTHING. However, that said I do want to add:

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA (ok deep breath)
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.......

____________________

Connor:

@macsuk

Probably because Bill Clinton has transformed into a gruesome, petty man.

Though the Gina Gershon thing...that earns him some points.

@boomshat

Dude...you are wrong about EVERYTHING. Do you conduct your personal and professional life like this: flat-out denying reality, making strange predictions that unanimously fail to come true, etc?

McCain's got one month. When has a president ever turned around a poll-deficit like this...even after the first debate?

@marctx & co: y'all better call up your John Birch buddies and start your national "BUT HE'S A BLACK GUY!!!!!" campaign. It's your only shot.

____________________

jamesia:

I'm starting to think that national trends trickle down to state trends after about a week or so. Obama has been surging nationally for a week and a half, and now that surge is showing in state polls. The same thing happened with McCain's post-RNC surge (all of which is now gone).

Can anyone with more time in politics confirm that? This is the first election I've paid attention to really.

____________________

JCK:

jamesia,

I think the lag may have to do with polling frequency more than anything else. The National polls run daily trackers showing last night's results, but the state polls usually only come out every few days, and usually a few days after the poll was performed.

Note that these Q polls include "pre-debate" numbers, which are almost a week old now.

So I think it's more of a sampling artifact than some fundamental phenomenon.

____________________

carl29:

I think that it is a combination of the economy going sour and people going sour on Palin. No doubt that Palin's glow is gone, gone, gone. Again, as I already said it before, Palin will become a liability. In this environment Palin brings nothing more than skepticism to McCain's ticket.

____________________

metsmets:

I think McCain missed a huge opportunity. No-one has represented the Republican point-of-view better than Boomshak. He has put more lipstick on more pigs than a Nebraskan hog farmer with a porcine beauty contest fixation.
I think, deep down, he knows he is ready to answer the call!

What call?

PALIN HEEDS FAMILY CALL TO GO HOME.
MCCAIN LOOKS FOR NEW V.P.


MCCAIN
BOOMSHAK

(I bet he can name a dozen Supreme Court cases without taking a breath)

____________________

carl29:

McCain should have picked Romney. Imagine how strong McCain's ticket would look right now: An experienced candidate on national security and an experienced candidate on the economy. No matter what the situation, McCain's ticket would have become Americans' answer. Now?

____________________

Evolve:

@Everyone

As a individual connected to the housing market, what your not seeing here is the fact that Ohio and Florida are 2 of the hardest hit areas in the housing market, with the House Rep. saying let everyone fail their gonna turn to the only candidate that offers them any hope. On top of that the retired Seniors in Florida just lost 8-9% on their retirement funds, they too are gonna turn to the only candidate that is offering any hope. McCann probably shouldn't get the blame from the action of the house but fact are fact and he will by association. In turn when this package is passed Ohio and Florida should tighten back up.

____________________

vmval1:

Ras - O+6. Lookin good.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 50 42 Obama +8
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 47 45 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 48 McCain +1

As far as I'm concerned, you can throw out the Fox News and the SurveyUSA polls. They're crap.

Ohio is probably somewhere in the neighborhod of Obama +4-5 percentage points.

____________________

tjampel:

This says it all...from Ras

"Obama leads among Democrats 87% to 11% while McCain leads among Republicans by an identical margin. For much of the year, McCain was able to count on a more unified party than Obama, but that advantage has disappeared. Obama benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation and he also holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters...."

____________________

zotz:

boom-
You are being rediculous! Quin is a top rate polster and the samples are large and the MOE is low. I think that they are taking into concideration the large influx of new voters. You can argue that these voters wont turn out election day but with Obama's ground game your chances are pert-nigh hopeless!

____________________

riverrun:

Pew Research is another pollster showing Obama with +6% lead. This is a reputable outfit, noted for particularly good analytics. Take a close look at their commentary:

http://people-press.org/report/456/obama-regains-lead

Bottom line is that Obama has regained a strong lead, boosted by excellent, reassuring debate performance - and Palin is dragging McCain down among swing voters.

____________________

Hoosier:

metsmets:

"I think McCain missed a huge opportunity. No-one has represented the Republican point-of-view better than Boomshak. He has put more lipstick on more pigs than a Nebraskan hog farmer with a porcine beauty contest fixation."

One of the funniest things I've read on here yet. As good as the sign at the anti-Palin rally in Alaska that read "Palin: Lipstick on a Fascist Pig"

I also could not understand why they sent Grandpa Simpson to campaign in Iowa yesterday. Where is he off to next, New York or Massachusetts??? What a way to blow a valuable campaign day! His firewall is collapsing and he's off in safe blue states.

I've seen some totally inept campaigns in my day (Dukakis, Dole, Kerry), but McCain's advisers are starting to look like the Keystone Kops.

____________________

pbcrunch:

I do think these are slightly on the outer edge of possibility but shouldn't be discounted as merely statistical noise. Quinnipiac is an extremely good pollster -- one of the highest ranked if not the highest ranked over at 538.com -- and I do not see them pumping out "ouliers" for three different states at once.

Even without this poll, Republicans are absolutely terrified in OH. They went to court -- and failed -- to stop that one-week window where people could register and vote absentee at the same time. This window inherently favors that side which is better organized; the Democrats did not try to stop it which only means the Republicans are in a weaker position.

The FL number is possible. Palin is not at all popular with many demographics down there and many were just looking for an excuse to jump ship and support Obama, who came across very well during the debate. O didn't do a knockout but he didn't have to.

And we can all agree that McCain should not spend any more time in PA (or MI or IA or NM or MN or WI); it is 100% apparent he needs to shore up his strength in states he absolutely NEEDS -- OH, FL, VA, NV and NC -- and try to snipe NH from Obama's column, the only Kerry state he has a chance of winning.

____________________

riverrun:

Instead of haggling over which polls are right or wrong, let’s recognise that the way polling works, the greater the sample size, the more reliable. Also, the more polls you have, the clearer the general picture becomes if you look through the clutter. That is why we have sites like this, 538, RCP and vote4america which accumulate numerous polls and attempt to produce projections, estimates, or simple averages.

Methodology differs, leading to results which differ in detail but all point to the same overall result:

The race is clearly moving in Obama’s direction
The consensus from all 4 sites is that Iowa and NM are now strongly in Obama’s camp, so are Colorado and Virginia (more narrowly).
Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada are all poised on a knife edge, but headed in Obama’s direction.
Indiana, Missouri and West Virginia are close enough to be seriously competitive.


The bottom line is that based on current polls, Obama already has enough support to win comfortably. With momentum going his way, he could extend the current lead to a landslide. Should the momentum reverse (which it could), he still has some slack to spare.

McCain has a mountain to climb if he is to turn this thing around.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

While I doubt that Obama's numbers are that high in those 3 battleground states I am pissed off by boomshak on this blog. It's me or I never saw this guy agree with a poll that gives a clear lead to Obama, this is the guy who still thinks that the McP"al"inocchio ticket will win by a landslide in one month
What if those polls were an October surprise ??

BoomSHAK, BoomSPIN, BoomBLIND, BoomInsane, BoomPARTISAN, BoomWhatever ...
This is so pathetic ...

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Boom you have become irrational. Even if Quinipac has a higher dem to Rep ratio then you desire they used the same methadology they did in Sept. showing McCain ahead in OH and FL. Your candidate is literally getting his butt handed to him. The signs are all around you bud.

From Quinipac:

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.


"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added"

So basically, he's screwed? lol!~

____________________

GretchenA:

Two observations:

1) We still don't know how much race will impact the voting come election day. People tend to under-report their own bias but by how much?

2) I was canvassing the other day in NV. Yes, Obama's ground forces are impressive. What is all the more impressive, though, are the levels of organization and coordination in these efforts and the cooperation among different Dem groups. In my past experiences infighting by sub-groups with slightly different agendas bogged down the effectiveness of the overall effort, sometimes hopelessly splintering it. It is a compliment to all, and due in no small part to Obama's hopeful and unifying message, that these groups are working very effectively together.

____________________

DaveAustralia:

Wow! just wow! I hope to god these polls are right. I also think that once the monday news starts to filter in then we could well see even bigger leads.

GOBAMA!!!!

____________________

sotonightthatimightsee:

These polls are not only laughable, but very misleading! I bet you if it was the other way around, the Obamination would be crying foul as well.

I love how these pollsters oversample blacks. I mean, are you kidding me? WE GET IT! THEY'D VOTE FOR THIS GUY EVEN IF HE WAS THE BLACK F-ING CHARLES MANSON FOR CHRIST'S SAKES!!

No way Obambi wins Florida or Ohio..bet on it!

____________________

Florida Voter:

Gotta love the new Florida numbers, much more in line with the local polling in the state. Here in Tampa Bay it's Obama 49% to 43% over McCain and that was before the debate. And history shows that no one can win Florida without winning the Tampa Bay vote with it's 4-5Million inhabitants.

Give Obama credit. He's running a much better campaign here in Florida then McCain. His ground workers outnumber McCain by 5-1. And Florida's economy which used to be the best in the nation is now one of the worst.

I do agree with many on here, what was John doing in Iowa?? He's so far behind there, what a wasted day.

____________________

pbcrunch:

McCain's reaction to these polls -- calling them "laughable" -- is exactly the wrong response. It makes him look like a whiner and a panicking reactionary. The second half of his response was better: "our internals show a closer race." Should have also probably thrown in something to placate his troops like "don't worry about the polls, we know what we're doing."

As it is, only the "laughable" comment will get any airtime and only his partisans will believe it while everybody else will think he's losing it.

____________________

Florida Voter:

For those that think this polling data is laughable, what should it be? Tied, McCain up by 5-10 points?

I find it odd that many can dismiss these numbers. McCain is really failing in getting his message out with his plans on what he is doing. All the commercials running in Florida by McCain are all negative, except for the Maverick one starring Palin and himself. Obama on the other hand is making policy statement commercials, outlining exactly what he is going to do with details that people can understand. Are there negative ones from Obama, sure they are. But mucho less then McCain and the GOP.

They scared us in 2004 in believing that electing a Democrat will kill us all with terrorism lurking in every corner. It's not going to work this time.

____________________

riverrun:

Gallup shows Obama's lead slipping today - now down to 4%.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

The Galuup poll is an outlier. It's still outside the MOE-2.

____________________

jradMIT:

Gallup tracker is questionable. It is very volatile and had the race tied in June when Obama was up 5 in Rasmussen. Rasmussen is much better it doesn't swing like crazy and seems to be more in line with the other polls. Yet for some reason the media is always quoting it.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR