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R2K: IA, IN (9/28-30)

Topics: PHome

Research 2000
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Iowa 9/29-30, 600 LV, 4%
Obama 55, McCain 39

Indiana 9/28-30, 600 LV, 4%
McCain 46, Obama 45

 

Comments
Commander_King:

So close in Indiana! come on lets turn it blue!

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Adrian B:

These polls just confirm what all the nationals and trackers are showing.

For the objective statisticians: Obama's outliers are (as of this morning) +4 and +11. All the other polls are between +5 and +8 (and this is born out by Pollster's trendline). EVEN RASMUSSEN has Obama up +7 (remember, the God of GOP polling!!) This brings IN, Ohio and MO into play. No wonder Florida has shown five polls with the same 3-4% lead for Obama.

For the partisans - make up whatever you want to believe!

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Robi:

I cannot believe how close some states are! Indiana is pretty much a tie right now?

It must be the economic news paired with the debate. Tonight's probably will not help or hurt anyone unless one of them makes a serious gaffe.

People have short memories so I think that, if the economy stops making front page news, polls will trend back to a tighter race.

It can't be this good.

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BLeigh82:

Indiana is going to be really close. It may come down to the Gary area and how much Obama can run it up there. He didn't get the numbers up enough in that area to steal that primary win vs. Hillary but was dang close.

Will McCain or Palin be visiting at some point you think? Not sure if they have been to Indiana yet but it may help.

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DecaturMark:

I guess that visit to Iowa by McCain yesterday bolstered his numbers. ;-D

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Adrian B:

P.S. I hear Alaska might be in play after the debate ... :-))

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JCK:

It will be interesting to see how IN polls end up correlating to the actual result. In the primary, virtually all of the polls showed Clinton leading by about 5-6 points, but she won by less than 1.5%, in the final tally.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html#polls

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pbcrunch:

Hate to beat a dead horse but: WHY WAS MCCAIN IN IOWA???

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freedomreigns:

There is a lot of Election left, so relax about the Indiana numbers.
However, Iowa is done and has been for a long time. They despise McCain in Iowa.

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Commander_King:

Soon the only state that won't be in play is Utah.

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Trosen:

pbcrunch.. I've been dumbfounded by this as well. Iowa has been nearly double digits for Obama for as long as I can remember. If I was a McCain supporter, I'd be going ape-sh*t over that. McCain needs to get his a$$ to FL, NC, MO, NV, VA, et al. just to try to hold those states.

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Trosen:

freedom, interesting you should say that. Once McCain basically sh*t on the ethanol subsidies, he was toast in Iowa. Yet if you listen to everything they say, they still think it's in play and still think they can/should win there. Maybe their internals show it being a hell of a lot closer than it is. Either way, it would seem he has way bigger fish to fry than IA.

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glober:

Looks like only Utah, Idaho and Tennessee are going to stay "safe republican" come the end of October.
That's a huge 20 EV. Lol

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nomorerepubs:

It is the ethanol subsidy that hurts McCain in Indiana. McCain has basically ignored Indiana he has no ground troops there. Yesterday he goes to Des Moines, Iowa and says that as President he will abolish subsidies for corn, ethanol. Now regardless of you position on this issue there are many many Indianans who make there livings from corn and they do not want those subsidies taken away.

So between ignoring them, the tough financial times, the weakened economy, the ugliness of McCain and the threat by McCain to take away their subsidies...a state that Bush won by 20 points is now tied and since McCain has no organization in Indiana it could indeed turn blue

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RaleighNC:

Yeah, it's all over. Let's just give it to Barry and drop the pretense of Nov. 4th.

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RS:

I wonder if McCain went to Iowa because they figured Palin was energizing the so-cons like Huckabee did in the primary caucus.
This poll - just 37% think Palin's qualified to be POTUS while 56% think otherwise - goes against their internals, probably...

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Isher:

He's going to be in Missou later in the week, but we KNOW why he's going to Missou... and it ain't good news.

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KipTin:

Indiana has been a toss-up for some time. Why are you guys acting like this poll is a closing of the race in this state?

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KipTin:

Where have you guys been? McCain has already been in Missouri this last week (and therefore cannot be "going to.") He gave a speech at speech at the Harry S. Truman Library in Missouri yesterday.

BTW: Did you know that Truman is the only president who served after 1897 not to earn a college degree... yet there is a college named after him in Chicago. Ironic, init?

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Trosen:
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falcon79:

@kiptin
thx for the cool facts, my repub friend
thx also for being a voice of reason, to remind us libs not to get too carried away
guys, we gotta keep pushing forward, no matter what
donate
volunteer
VOTE
OBAMA/BIDEN '08!!!

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cinnamonape:

"Hate to beat a dead horse but: WHY WAS MCCAIN IN IOWA???"

To give a terrible interview to the Des Moines Register, caught on video. Sheesh to say he "If I was dictator, which I've always aspired to." and to look like Capt. Queeg throughout the interview, and say that "I can relate to astronauts even though I never was in space"...and lie about his lack of healthcare coverage while he was running for Congress...positively glower over being able to say that he was a POW. He's doing badly now...but the footage of this has just hit the internet. It's gonna kill him as bad as Palin's stuff.

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cinnamonape:

Sadly I was hoping for more regular R2K polling (or anyone for that matter) in Indiana. The last numbers are for Nader BTW. Interesting that it's THAT high.


Research 2K 9/28-30/08 600 LV 46 45 - - 9 -
Research 2K 4/23-24/08 600 LV 51 43 - - 6 -

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Paul:

Adjusted for 2004 demographics from exit poll:

Iowa
by gender: Obama +17
by party ID: Obama +11

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Paul:

Cannot do the Indiana analysis without the R2K crosstabs - anyone have the poll details?

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