Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Iowa 9/29-30, 600 LV, 4%
Obama 55, McCain 39
Indiana 9/28-30, 600 LV, 4%
McCain 46, Obama 45
So close in Indiana! come on lets turn it blue!
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:45 AM
These polls just confirm what all the nationals and trackers are showing.
For the objective statisticians: Obama's outliers are (as of this morning) +4 and +11. All the other polls are between +5 and +8 (and this is born out by Pollster's trendline). EVEN RASMUSSEN has Obama up +7 (remember, the God of GOP polling!!) This brings IN, Ohio and MO into play. No wonder Florida has shown five polls with the same 3-4% lead for Obama.
For the partisans - make up whatever you want to believe!
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:55 AM
I cannot believe how close some states are! Indiana is pretty much a tie right now?
It must be the economic news paired with the debate. Tonight's probably will not help or hurt anyone unless one of them makes a serious gaffe.
People have short memories so I think that, if the economy stops making front page news, polls will trend back to a tighter race.
It can't be this good.
Indiana is going to be really close. It may come down to the Gary area and how much Obama can run it up there. He didn't get the numbers up enough in that area to steal that primary win vs. Hillary but was dang close.
Will McCain or Palin be visiting at some point you think? Not sure if they have been to Indiana yet but it may help.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:56 AM
I guess that visit to Iowa by McCain yesterday bolstered his numbers. ;-D
P.S. I hear Alaska might be in play after the debate ... :-))
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:59 AM
It will be interesting to see how IN polls end up correlating to the actual result. In the primary, virtually all of the polls showed Clinton leading by about 5-6 points, but she won by less than 1.5%, in the final tally.
Hate to beat a dead horse but: WHY WAS MCCAIN IN IOWA???
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:02 AM
There is a lot of Election left, so relax about the Indiana numbers.
However, Iowa is done and has been for a long time. They despise McCain in Iowa.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:04 AM
Soon the only state that won't be in play is Utah.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:07 AM
pbcrunch.. I've been dumbfounded by this as well. Iowa has been nearly double digits for Obama for as long as I can remember. If I was a McCain supporter, I'd be going ape-sh*t over that. McCain needs to get his a$$ to FL, NC, MO, NV, VA, et al. just to try to hold those states.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:17 AM
freedom, interesting you should say that. Once McCain basically sh*t on the ethanol subsidies, he was toast in Iowa. Yet if you listen to everything they say, they still think it's in play and still think they can/should win there. Maybe their internals show it being a hell of a lot closer than it is. Either way, it would seem he has way bigger fish to fry than IA.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:19 AM
Looks like only Utah, Idaho and Tennessee are going to stay "safe republican" come the end of October.
That's a huge 20 EV. Lol
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:20 AM
It is the ethanol subsidy that hurts McCain in Indiana. McCain has basically ignored Indiana he has no ground troops there. Yesterday he goes to Des Moines, Iowa and says that as President he will abolish subsidies for corn, ethanol. Now regardless of you position on this issue there are many many Indianans who make there livings from corn and they do not want those subsidies taken away.
So between ignoring them, the tough financial times, the weakened economy, the ugliness of McCain and the threat by McCain to take away their subsidies...a state that Bush won by 20 points is now tied and since McCain has no organization in Indiana it could indeed turn blue
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:22 AM
Yeah, it's all over. Let's just give it to Barry and drop the pretense of Nov. 4th.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:28 AM
I wonder if McCain went to Iowa because they figured Palin was energizing the so-cons like Huckabee did in the primary caucus.
This poll - just 37% think Palin's qualified to be POTUS while 56% think otherwise - goes against their internals, probably...
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:36 AM
He's going to be in Missou later in the week, but we KNOW why he's going to Missou... and it ain't good news.
Posted on October 2, 2008 11:32 AM
Indiana has been a toss-up for some time. Why are you guys acting like this poll is a closing of the race in this state?
Posted on October 2, 2008 11:47 AM
Where have you guys been? McCain has already been in Missouri this last week (and therefore cannot be "going to.") He gave a speech at speech at the Harry S. Truman Library in Missouri yesterday.
BTW: Did you know that Truman is the only president who served after 1897 not to earn a college degree... yet there is a college named after him in Chicago. Ironic, init?
Posted on October 2, 2008 11:53 AM
GOP getting worried about Indiana:
Posted on October 2, 2008 12:16 PM
thx for the cool facts, my repub friend
thx also for being a voice of reason, to remind us libs not to get too carried away
guys, we gotta keep pushing forward, no matter what
Posted on October 2, 2008 1:00 PM
"Hate to beat a dead horse but: WHY WAS MCCAIN IN IOWA???"
To give a terrible interview to the Des Moines Register, caught on video. Sheesh to say he "If I was dictator, which I've always aspired to." and to look like Capt. Queeg throughout the interview, and say that "I can relate to astronauts even though I never was in space"...and lie about his lack of healthcare coverage while he was running for Congress...positively glower over being able to say that he was a POW. He's doing badly now...but the footage of this has just hit the internet. It's gonna kill him as bad as Palin's stuff.
Posted on October 2, 2008 3:29 PM
Sadly I was hoping for more regular R2K polling (or anyone for that matter) in Indiana. The last numbers are for Nader BTW. Interesting that it's THAT high.
Research 2K 9/28-30/08 600 LV 46 45 - - 9 -
Research 2K 4/23-24/08 600 LV 51 43 - - 6 -
Posted on October 2, 2008 3:33 PM
Adjusted for 2004 demographics from exit poll:
by gender: Obama +17
by party ID: Obama +11
Posted on October 2, 2008 6:32 PM
Cannot do the Indiana analysis without the R2K crosstabs - anyone have the poll details?
Posted on October 2, 2008 6:43 PM
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