Pollster.com

Before anybody worries or questions Pollster.com's math, that Michigan number is actually O53 - M43.

WOW!

Something's wrong with those Michigan numbers!

NM going dark blue soon.

53-53 in Michigan! Holy crap McCain's surged right out of traditional notions of mathematics!

Uh oh! ABC TRACKING POLL MOVING THE WRONG WAY. If you're Boom:)

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6136936&page=1

Pretty amazing that 44 percent of Alaskans prefer a convicted felon who sold them out for free furniture.

@iwill

LOL...

Mcain Surge in MI!!!!!!!!!! He actually created people, which is more than obama has done....

Franksn

McCain surge!

McCain landslide!

At last. Polls for the remaining Kerry Battleground states. People stopped caring about them back at the start of October when then looked solid. So I had been wondering if they had actually changed since then. In summary, Obama STILL has commanding leads in these states. A 10 point lead in MI, a 12 point lead in MN, and a 10 point lead in NM. More impressive, Obama's numbers are in the 53-55 range. Obama looks insurmountable in those states, as well as in Pennsylvania what with his 53-46 lead. Solid.

franken down agaiNN!!!

ABC Tracker:

O 52
M 44

The trackers today, on average, are essentially unchanged from yesterday, with Ras showing the largest movement in either direction.

Good to see all 106% of Michigan's voters are accounted for.

I froze at my keyboard when I saw the Michigan numbers.

"This whole thing is coming apart," I thought. "The McCain and Palin lies are working."

Then I saw the note of correction. Whew!

What a dismal world it would be with McCain and Palin there.

not a good poll for Franken in Mn.
:-/

McCreator better than Chuck Norris (he can divide by zero): when he needs votes, he generates people

DAMMIT!!!

Franken is down, I repeat Franken is down...

Somebody get a medivac in there we've got to restart his campaign.

I'm not liking those MN senate numbers....

I think we have our answer: recent national tracking polls have been calling exclusively in Michigan (and Bill Crist's imagination).

All of these DO show movement of about 1-3 points toward McCain from the last Rasmussen poll for those states - as I thought they would since they were taken during the "tightening" of Rasmussen's Tracking Poll.

Tried to get in the Bank Atlantic for the Obama Rally, it was so crowded!!!!!!

"Good to see all 106% of Michigan's voters are accounted for."

Maybe they'r just trying to compensate for the primary debacle?

NM should turn dark blue today.
Colorado should dark blue today.
Florida "may" turn back to light blue.

Based on everything else I'm seeing today, Rasmussen's national tracker movement was a product of playing with the likely voter screen, rounding error (i.e., McCain went from 46.4 to 46.5 and Obama dropped from 50.5 to 50.4), or most likely some funky combination of the two.

Going up:
Gallup (LV1 and RV)
ABC
Zogby

Going down:
Rasmussen
IBD-TIPP
Battleground

Staying the same:
Gallup (LV2)
Battleground

calm down about franken ;) 4.5% error. still ok ;)

do the people here supporting al franken actually think he'll make a good politician? or are you guys just anxious to get a republican blame proof senate?

What effect with the Obama landslide in Mn. have on Franken?

Looks like Teddy is toast!!!! My bet is that he hates Palin too much to let her have a whack at his seat by resigning....

I meant Hotline instead of Battleground in "Going down."

birdgeportjoe you missed 1. IPSOS went from +5 to +6 Obama in today's release. Pollster hasn't updated yet. This McCain surge is just oVERWHELMING:)

@BridgeportJoe:

No no no no ... Don't you know? It's a McCain SURRGGEEE! ;)

I would lean toward the rounding aspect - which is why with a sample of over 1000 - you might as well use 10ths.

Rass national poll looks even more weird now! You say Obama is crushing McCain in polls, but your national polls show that Obama is losing ground fast!

Why is that?

@Northeastern Republican

He will probably do a better job than Norm "I dont wanna do any more negative ads...but wait now I do...oh wait now I dont" Coleman. He has flip-flopped more in his campaign than I have seen in a while so I dont see how that is a good example of his abilities.

@straight talk

Look here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Count the number of blue vs. red and you will understand.

I think it's time to paint NM "DARK BLUE" !!!

@NER

Hey at least Franken puts his money where his mouth is. Lets see Rush, Hannity, Coulter, O'Really, Dick Morris or any of the cadre of RW idealogues get out on the campaign trail.

Franken is smart and if he didn't care about helping people he could be making money doing lots of different things. Next time I see G. Gordon Liddy on the campaign trail with his running mate Michelle Savage, I'll let you know.

Mock all you want but I'll take someone who cares to try and make it better over a pile of fluffers that just want to make it worse.

@ Northeastern Republican:
"do the people here supporting al franken actually think he'll make a good politician? or are you guys just anxious to get a republican blame proof senate?"

I think he'll make a good senator, not sure about a good politician. I value intelligence and intellectual curiosity more than just about anything in those I vote for, and what I've liked about Franken in the past is not that he slams the right (there are hundreds of books doing that) or that he's funny (so are any number of standup comics) but that he really picks apart arguments and talking points and separates the truth from the lies--it's an incredibly valuable skill and one I think all of us would do well to master.

Obama +50 (and up by double digits) in Michigan, Minnesota and the crucial swing state of New Mexico, the same day that Ras' tracker showed the national race tightening to 3 points. All he needs is 50.1 percent in each of these states, and he is well above that. Bottom line.

So much for the McCain surge. Folks, it's just "undecided" republicans coming home to McCain, as everyone had predicted. Obama's numbers staying right about where they have been, which is a good thing for Obama. His support is solidifying, while McCain's is just now jumping back on board. I do not expect the toss ups to tighten all that much between now and election day; maybe a point or two here and there, but not in every single one of them. I'm cautiously optimistic. No real evidence in the state polls that we should start to worry, and also no reason to get complacent. So far, the early voting numbers show no complacency among democrats; actually, quite the opposite. Just make sure you and your friends get out to vote, and if at all possible, volunteer to help get the elderly or those without vehicles out to the polling stations especially if you are in a swing state or Pennsylvania.

YES WE WILL!

I feel much, much better. Particularly when looking at the date. Although none were considered battlegrounds, nice to see the state's holding strong.

Norm Coleman is a deadbeat.

@straight talk:

"Rass national poll looks even more weird now! You say Obama is crushing McCain in polls, but your national polls show that Obama is losing ground fast!

Why is that?"

I think that they are oversampling Alaska, Utah and Oklahoma!! ))))

I remember a time when Michigan and New Mexico could been tight. Seems like an eternity.

You know what they say: the state polls always lag behind the Pew national one.

@ syrac818:
"I feel much, much better. Particularly when looking at the date. Although none were considered battlegrounds, nice to see the state's holding strong."

You'd do well to recall that MN, MI, and NM were battlegrounds only a few months ago. That Obama seems to have locked them up and we'd mostly forgotten about them tells you all you need to know about the direction this race is going.

I am not a huge fan of Franken, but Coleman is about as low in my book as Chambliss or Stevens. I think that it would be pathetic if Coleman somehow holds on, while Obama demolishes McCain by double digits. Can't Franken at least carry 80-85 percent of the Obama voters?

Coleman has built his political career on the flip-flop platform.
He started out a democrat from st. paul, then repubican, then neo-con, then a republican again.
I wouldn't hold your breath for a Franken win here in Minnesota.
But at least we know that with a Democratic majority in government, it's quite likely Colmeman will turn back into a Democrat. ;-p

I think that Pew Poll Research (15%) looks more accurate everyday the state polls comes out with these huge crushing leads for Obama!

Anybody else agree?

Is support for the 3rd party candidate really that high in the MN Senate race? Thats ridiculous. To me, if a candidate can't get 1/3 of the vote, a vote for him is a protest vote.

weigh in, with 6 days to go. I do believe the make or break State for everything to collapse heavily on McCain is INDIANA. If exit polls and early hard data show Indiana very close or a lead for Obama, all flood gates will open. And the potential for over 400 EVs is there.

Here is what I believe are the thresholds and the “dam breaking” potential for Obama come next Tuesday. Based on what I see from early voting, ground-game operations, public and private polling, and consensus among pundits (from FOX to CNN to MSNBC).

286 EV (90% chance)
1st Water Mark (the dam is cracking)
KERRY STATES + IA + VA + NM + CO

338 EV (75% chance)
2nd Water Mark (the dam has huge cracks)
1st WM + FL, OH, NV

375 EV (60% chance)
3rd Water Mark (the dam has broken!)
2nd WM + IN, MO, NC

393 EV (45% chance)
4th Water Mark (the city has flooded!)
3rd WM + ND, GA

411 EV (30% chance)
5th Water Mark (the county has flooded!)
4th WM + MT + AZ + WV

420 EV (15% chance)
6th Water Mark (holy sh*t)
5th WM + MS + SD

The third water mark minus 1 of those pickups is the MOST LIKELY scenario.

PREDICTION: OBAMA 349-375 EVs

Franken is a very smart guy. I'm always biassed in favor of intelligence.

More strong state numbers for Obama.

Yahoo is being funny again. A picture of a cabbage patch Palin doll is associated with an article on Palin's speech on energy policy.

http://news.yahoo.com/i/536;_ylt=AvjuudB9joUBWl90J7iZ20as0NUE

Obama prediction:

Minimum: 291 EV, 1st WM + NV

Maximum: 375 EV, 3rd WM

What a horrible campaign!
Now it turns out that the new official spokesman of the McCain Campaign "Joe the plumber" is nothing but dumb trailer trash. He is actually so downright dumb and nasty that even FOX NEWS has to distant itself from him.
Check this out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIJnSPrKbrI

But on the other hand, it’s only fair. If a black man gets a shot at the presidency, why should the ignorant be kept out ? That’s affirmative action at its best: Village idiots for president!

Palin/Wurzelbacher 2012 !

4 More days. Let’s hope nothing unexpected (e.g. Bin Laden endorses Obama) happens, and Obama will be the next president. The world will breathe a sigh of relief.

@Northeastern Republican:

I think he will make a fine Senator for Minnesota. He's got a high intellect, common sense and, of course, a good sense of humor.

"Al Franken and Tom Davis - The Comedy Team that weighs the same" :)

Any chance this guy Barkely will bolt and endorse Franken? DO they need 50% to win in Mn?

What a horrible campaign!
Now it turns out that the new official spokesman of the McCain Campaign "Joe the plumber" is nothing but dumb trailer trash. He is actually so downright dumb and nasty that even FOX NEWS has to distant itself from him.
Check this out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIJnSPrKbrI

But on the other hand, it’s only fair. If a black man gets a shot at the presidency, why should the ignorant be kept out ? That’s affirmative action at its best: Village idiots for president!

Palin/Wurzelbacher 2012 !

4 More days. Let’s hope nothing unexpected (e.g. Bin Laden endorses Obama) happens, and Obama will be the next president. The world will breathe a sigh of relief.

Any chance this guy Barkely will bolt and endorse Franken? DO they need 50% to win in Mn?

Looks like a pretty nice analyis, onfire 74, a nice way of looking at it.

Obama at 54% in New Mexico is huge.

Don't count out Franken. Those MN senate #s have been up and down for a long time.

YEAH no wonder Palin is the most popular Governor! All you have to do is NOT be an axe murderer in Alaska and you get 80% approval!

New Mexico Obama +10 GRACIAS!

@ Shannon:
The IP party is really strong in Minnesota. I wouldn't be surprised if the final number will be higher. I know MANY people voting for Barkely and Obama.

@onfire
I'm sittin here thinking what state is WM. Quite the glass half full thinking.

The 54% in New Mexico for Obama doesn't bode well for McCain's hopes to carry his home state of Arizona. It wouldnt shock me at all to see Obama squeak out a win there.

Does anyone think Barkley's support will peel off on election day?

I would not be surprised to see Osama endorse Obama....he is not stupid...he knows it would help Mccain and the history of the USA since 9/11 has been to BLEED cash and lives, to distance it's allies and unite it's enemies....if I were OBL I would SOUNDLY applaud Obama knowing how that would hit.
Then laugh as we spend outselve bankrupt!

@ Laguna:
No, you don't need 50%. Jesse Ventura won here with i think 38%. I think the chance of Barkley endorsing Franken is nil. I also think that he'll get a higher percentage of the vote than whats in poll numbers.
Weather that's good for Franken or Coleman is yet to be seen.

Will Barkley endorse Franken? No, he's a 3rd-party guy from way back. Some of his voters might peel off though.

@NER
I will be voting for Franken without reservation. He's a good guy and a smart guy (gov't major at Harvard). He will absolutely be a better Senator than Coleman, who is a total scumbag.

I hear ya there Mago. I think the problem with the MN IP party is that their candidates are either center right or center left (as Barkley is).
If they had a more clear platform I think they would do better than both the DFL and GOP in Minnesota.

Let’s hope nothing unexpected (e.g. Bin Laden endorses Obama) happens

Actually, Al Queada (sp?) has already weighed in.....SERIOUSLY! It was in the news just last week....

One of their message boards basically implyed that McCain was their pick?

Why?

Because he has indicated that he wants to stay in Iraq longer. And that HELPS the terrorist groups because it commits our resources in areas away from the hunt against the groups.

The most under-reported story of this election cycle is how McCain, has lost the West (or at least most of it).

We're talking about a nationally-known Senator from Arizona. Had he been able to hold the long-standing Republican advantage in NM, CO and NV, he'd still have a fighting chance in this race. NM and CO, however, are done deals and that's game, set and match for Obama on the electoral map.

McCain has lost this election in his own back yard. The independents out there are breaking huge for the Dems and the Hispanic voters are all driving around with Obamanos! stickers on their pickups.

Is support for the 3rd party candidate really that high in the MN Senate race? Thats ridiculous. To me, if a candidate can't get 1/3 of the vote, a vote for him is a protest vote.

Third party candidates' support often craters once folks actually get into the voting booth. Barkley probably won't get much more than half of that 14%. The question is which way those Barkley pollers break.

Village idiots for president!

The Village of Crawford, Texas has been forced to make do without their idiot for almost eight years now.

Excellent news. Between the state polls and the tracking polls, which in aggregate show little movement, Obama is in excellent shape.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: McCain is in deep, deep trouble. He's got almost no viable route to 270 at this point, and is in danger of losing essential states (OH, FL, and NC in particular).

Let me know when McCain surges in more than just a handful of tracking polls.

a funny thing about the NM poll is that mccain just visted there and his Favorable Ratings went down 5 so apparently his visit had a negative effect on him of course obamas favorables are down two aswell but thats much less of a movement.

I think WM = onfire74's "Water Mark" in his/her top scenario.

Even though I think most of us justifiably feel good about the numbers that head this thread, I still think they're "typically Rasmussen low" for Obama. About a week ago Big 10/Battleground had Obama up 22 in Michigan. The truth is probably somewhere in-between, but I definitely don't think only 10, even with a little tightening over the past week.

Al Franken will get a friendly visit from Bill Clinton, hopefully this will booooost him a little.
Otherwise, i've lost something. Has someone seen McCain's surge?

Forgot the link, it's here

Do you think enough Hillary supporters are on board for Obama to win or that those stupid PUMAS will be enough for McCain?

The PUMAs are a myth. They were a small group of people throwing up a lot of noise, and I'm sure half of them were actually Republicans anyway.

No comments about the fact that Begich jumped a +12 (perhaps overnight) as the Steven's felony conviction came through. I suspect this will grow as the realization that Uncle Ted isn't likely to be capable of serving the states resources on a platter to VECO becomes more widely known.

Also Palin seems to be jumping off the campaign trail to vote back in Alas, Alack Alaska. That means her Monday won't be in the lower 48. In fact, precisely what McCain and Palin intend to do the final weekend isn't at all clear.

^^ It would be absolutely wonderful if Stevens is the guy who gets the Ds 60 votes in the Senate. It just works on so many levels. The Republican Party: The ultimate bridge to nowhere.

60 senators would be long shot, it's more reasonnable to expect 57 or 58 (counting sanders but not liebermann).