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Rasmussen: AK, PA (10/6)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
Mode: IVR

Alaska 10/6, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 55, Obama 40
Sen: Stevens (R-i) 49, Begich (D) 48

Pennsylvania 10/6, 700 LV, 4.5%
Obama 54, McCain 41

 

Comments
Tyler:

Hm, unfortunate news for Begich. He seemed to be staying on top even after Palin entered the race. Hopefully this is just an outlier and not a trend.

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BOOMFAIL:

Biggest headline about the Alaska poll is the McSlime lead has been cut in half in a month. Come on Alaska, prove to us you are smarter than Palin. One month to go to turn Blue. You can do it!

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Commander_King:

I think it is safe to say Obama is solid as a rock in Pennsylvania.

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fed:

ipsos has obama +7 nationally

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Commander_King:

Good. Their last poll showed him up by just 3.

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NW Patrick:

Washington, DC – A new Ipsos/McClatchy poll of registered voters indicates that Barack Obama has extended his lead over John McCain – 47% for Obama/Biden and 40% for McCain/Palin. Third party candidates Ralph Nader (Independent) and Bob Barr (Libertarian) received 3% and 1% respectively.

These figures show movement from last week’s Ipsos/McClatchy poll: Obama 46% and McCain 42%.

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faithhopelove:

Pollster has posted 2 PA polls today, 1 showing a 10-point Obama lead and the other showing a 15-point Obama lead. 2 other PA polls have also been released today, 1 from right-leaning Rasmussen (showing a 13-point Obama lead) and 1 from NPR (showing a 10-point Obama lead). See:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

&

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/06/wcunpr_poll_obama_ahead_by_ten_in_pennsylvania.html

Obama is now outspending McCain by more than 1 million dollars in order to seal his victory in PA. Biden, Hillary, and Bill Clinton campaign there together this weekend. Palin (with McCain?) wastes a day of campaigning in PA tomorrow.

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carl29:

Guys, I think that Palin's national career has no future anymore. It seems that exposure has not being "favorable" for her, beyond the very base. Even in Alaska her numbers are slipping. Remember when she was the "most popular" governor in the nation?

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

"Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 72% of voters in her home state, including 56% who hold a Very Favorable opinion of her."

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

"Sixty-three percent (63%) of Alaska voters have a favorable opinion of Palin, including 46% who say their view of her is Very Favorable."

In less than a month, Palin is also losing "fans" even in Alaska. She went from 72% to 63% favorable, an almost 10% drop. That's her home state.

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AlanSnipes:

I looked at polling report.com and saw that Obama leads in 24 consecutive nationwide polls.
These are not the daily tracking polls.

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MNLatteLiberal:

McCain goes on the attack on Freddie and Fanny and the Ohio meter on CNN dips for both men and women. Some nerve, btw, considering his staff and his links to Fannie and Freddie.
And he ducks the question #2. Nice. A real game changer.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

The great thing is that Palin is set up to sweep up the base for the 2012 primaries. She will be the Mondale for Obama's reelection landslide.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@ThatMarvelousApe
I am not so sure she is such a slam dunk for 2012 primaries. Firstly, as Keith Olbermann (and carl29 above) pointed out last week, Palin's approval dipped from the highest in the nation in the mid-80%, it is now in the 60's and there are two governors more popular than she is.

And that's with only a 5 weeks worth of national spotlight. Multiply that by 3.5 years. That's over 40 months worth of material for SNL, 40 months worth of scrutiny on her husband and his cessationist group, her Jerry Springer-like family and so on.

In a word, she will not only FAIL, she will be a supernova of failure. Will she be even re-elected as Alaska governor? Will she go back to being a newscaster? I think the latter is more likely.

Hey, while I was typing McCain lost Florida, reciting his propose Medicare cuts. Nice! Self-destruction, anyone?

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Ryan in MO:

Well, at least Obama is actually answering the questions. McCain isn't answering the questions and is repeating the same stuff over and over.

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BOOMFAIL:

Intrade is showing the obvious: Obama is winning this debate again.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MNLatteLiberal

I agree comoletely. We are not seeing the real Sarah Palin here, we get to see a scripted tightly controlled speech giver.

She would get DESTROYED in the Republican primaries where they won't protect her from the media scrutiny like they do now. She would have to answer questions at some point in time and she has proven that she just doesn't have the capacity to do that.

Unless John McCain gets elected and dies she will never be president.

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AngryAlaskan:

Boomfail is right. If Palin was on the ticket, this state would have FINALLY turned blue but as soon as she was added to the ticket, the state was out of reach. The people in AK don't like McCain for starters (which is surprising because of the number of military people here) because I believe he placed 4th in the primaries (behind Romny, Huckabee, AND Ron Paul! haha)

Anyways, sadly the people here are palin-washed and most likely won't turn blue. However, I will tell you that the anti-Palin people in Alaska are MUCH MORE intense than the pro-Palin people. There just isn't enough of us :-/ (But we'll try dammit!)

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MNLatteLiberal:

McCain is mentioning Hoover, still teaching history to the Americans. He is flatlining meanwhile. Jello to the wall? Flat. What Senator Obama doesn't understand? Flat.
McCampaign has learned NOTHING from debate 1 and debate 2. Sad.

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Commander_King:

Maybe we'll be able to turn Alaska blue in 2012.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@1Angry,
Well, I knew from the outset that I liked all the angry people out there. The dwarf, the toxicologist, the alaskan.. :). I mean, as the saying goes, "if you are not outraged, then you are not paying attention"

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MNLatteLiberal:

"Let's get back to the record and taxes, my friends..." - McDip. LMAO.

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MNLatteLiberal:

great answer from Obama on the environment!
simply great.

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Ryan in MO:

My friends, my friends, my friends

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MNLatteLiberal

Nice. I'm glad someone finally got the joke.

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DecaturMark:

Waht the heck is McCain doing? Sit down and stay still when Obama is speaking. Wandering around in the background is distracting. That is the rudest thing I have ever seen.

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illinoisindie:

McCain just did not talk about hair implants....!!!

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MNLatteLiberal:

@Decatur Mark,
I SWEAR to you, I saw McCain doing one of his stupid condescending smirks during an Obama answer. In would like to enter that into McCain's Ms Congeniality contest.

Oooh, angry arm cross from McCain as I type this.

Switching subjects, is anyone else watching this on CNN? The meter is through the roof on Obama's responses and flat on most of McCain's.

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mirrorball:

Illinoisinide: Oh yes, he did talk about hair transplants.

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thunkaboudit:

McCain Meltdown! Live on TV!

Is it just me or is Barack really kicking McCain around up there? I mean, I'm trying not to be biased here... McCain is being every bit the grumpy, snarky, angry old man that he didn't need to be tonight.

I think tonight = nail in coffin for McCain.

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Ryan in MO:

McCain is throwing accusations at Obama, so Obama can't defend himself AND answer the quaestion w/o going over. Hey, McCain, I haven't heard an actual answer for i don't know, ALL of your questions.

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MNLatteLiberal:

illinoisindie, did you see the women's response to that hair plug "joke"? The women, with whom he was doing OK on the health care plans until then, dipped to below 50%. Instantly. Because, as my wife points out, most people KNOW what their health plan covers, and we have yet to see one that covers hair plugs.

McCain is talking down to the audience, educating them. Obama's style is empathy and understanding.

John McCain, what does it feel to be crushed by the tide of history? That's what I'd ask.

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AngryAlaskan:

Hey, I got a new one. McCrony! :D

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Viperlord:

I stopped watching due to the endless repetition of the same old talking points. And on military people, the 2 candidates who got the most contributions from the military are Ron Paul, and Barack Obama.

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AngryAlaskan:

Ugh, bad move by Obama by saying "kill osama bin laden" and McCain gets a point for saying not to publicize if you're going to attack someone.

New total Obama: 392 McCain: 1

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MNLatteLiberal:

McCain is bubbling Palin-like on his Pakistan counter. Wow. McMeltdown.

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MNLatteLiberal:

babbling. sorry

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BOOMFAIL:

McShame was a veteran? I didn't know that.

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maddiekat:

Wow McShame is lucky Obama did not agree to 10 townkall meetings!

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MNLatteLiberal:

good answer from McCain on "cold war with Russia" thus far, and it shows in the response of the audience.

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vmval1:

My Friends....

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NW Patrick:

Wow let's have more town halls. Obama is AMAZING. This is not good for McCain. It's old vs. new. Intelligent vs. same ole' party line. WOW WOW WOW. This is a 100% improvement for Obama from debate #1.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Can I just say that Obama kicked some major butt? This is much more convincing than even the first debate. But I am biased. But the CNN meter is not.

Anyone else grinning ear to ear?

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IndependentThinker:

Where's the game changer for McCain?
I did not see it, did somebody do?

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NW Patrick:

Obama's Health care response was my fav of the night. He brought it home.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Well, if David Gergen agrees with us...
LMAO. Great job, Barack Obama.
No, make that President-Elect Barack Obama. Get used to saying that, folks.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Bill Bennett agrees with us too in his sick right wing way, of course, but agrees. Wow.

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Mike In Maryland:

Obama connecting the health care insurance companies going to the state with best laws and regulations FOR the insurance companies (and thus worst for the consumers) to the credit card companies going to Delaware should have REALLY connected to most people.

Faux News will not play that portion of the debate, but look for other media outlets to do at least some discussion on that.

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brambster:

It's officially over.

McCain had one last chance for him to affect the election, and regardless of how hard he tried or how well he might have done, Obama shined better than he had ever before in a debate, and clearly won. McCain needed to at least knock Obama down, and he barely grazed him. I don't even have to speak as to how well McCain might have done in representing himself. This won't change the dynamics with 4 weeks to go.

The polls are surging for Obama because people that weren't watching before, or who had only previously compared him to Hillary, have now gotten to know Obama much better, and they like him and feel comfortable with him.

There's also human nature at play here. When you are losing, people don't want to be on your team. It's too late to change that dynamic, and just like an Internet stock, Obama is shooting to the moon, but he is doing so on fundamentals and he won't crash.

Game, set and match.

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Ryan in MO:

nope, no game changer. just continued obama increases in polls.

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NW Patrick:

What a GREAT night for President Obama. I can't believe EVERY human voting can't see the CLEAR difference between these men. WOW.

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boomshak:

DEBATES OVER:
I really don't see how McCain can win this, he really needed to blow Obama up tonight and he didn't.

At this point, unless something dramatic happens, I think Obama will win.

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mirrorball:

Definitely no game changer. I don't think McCain did poorly by any stretch. But there were one or two questions (such as health care, and what would your priorities be) where Obama was much better with his answer. I suspect questions like those will stick out with the undecideds.

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vmval1:

I was surprised at the complete lack of negative tactics in the debate.

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NW Patrick:

Holy God boomshak. Did you just say what I think you did? WOW. Please don't sweat Obama... I think you've been worked up into a frenzy. I think deep down inside YOU KNOW he will be a transformational leader and this country BADLY needs it right now, liberal OR conservative.

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maddiekat:

Debates are not Obama's strength and he nailed it.

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MNLatteLiberal:

hey, boomshack, wanna go door knocking with me for Obama this Sat?

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CaliforniaIndie:

Honestly - the words that kept running through my mind for McCain tonight: "Not. His. Year."

His time was 2000, and it was sadly robbed from him by disgusting attacks from Rove and Company.

If he had won the primary in 2000, he would have wiped the floor with Gore. But this year is a change election and Obama has just captured it better. Meanwhile, I'm saddened that McCain seems to have lost his true voice in the name of winning.

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falcon79:

i thought it was somewhat of a draw, except for health care where obama clearly won
well i guess... see ya later, McStunt!
:)

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Ryguy:

obama took this one, no question...

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MNLatteLiberal:

don't know if you already saw this, but here is a link to the previous debate highlights:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/sarah-palin-debate-flowch_n_131607.html

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SuperCruncher:

OBAMA: We are all gonna be like three little Fonzies.
What was Fonzie like? WHAT WAS FONZIE LIKE!!!

MCCAIN...cool?

OBAMA: Exactamundo!!!

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Ryan in MO:

any post debate instant polls yet?

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

Romney was always my guy. I've been towing the line for McCain simply because I don't want America to become a Socialist nation.

But the guy is just too old and too dull. This will be Obama's year, God help us.

You guys just bought the crap sandwich, I hope you like it as much as you think you will.

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Ryguy:

id like to add how pleased i was to see no personal attacks the entire evening.

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boomshak:

{{{{DRUDGE POLL}}}} WHO WON THE SECOND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?...

MCCAIN

71% 47,855
OBAMA

26% 17,793
NEITHER

3% 2,199

Total Votes: 67,847

But this is typical

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political_junki:

Boom:
Back to my earlier point:
Goto foxnews's website. There is a question:

Question of the Day
Is Barack Obama's relationship to Bill Ayers troubling to you?

Yes 34%

No 66%

Total Voters:74147

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boomshak:

McCain may have run the sh*ttiest campaign in the history of earth. Bummer, oh well.

Let's see if the do-nothing Dems can somehow stear us clear of a depression.

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[nemesis]:

Ryan in MO:

There are unscientific online polls at both cnn.com and cbsnews.com. Keep in mind they're online polls, so not entirely accurate. That said, it's hard to argue a 82% Obama or 84% Obama victory could be anything but a win for him.

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IndependentThinker:

@Ryan in MO:

Who fared better in Tuesday's presidential debate?
Sen. John McCain 13% 5454
Sen. Barack Obama 84% 34740
No clear winner 3% 1146
Total Votes: 41340

It's CNN be careful :-)

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Ryguy:

boom, if mccain was winning i wonder if youd be saying that he was buying the crap sandwich. this is what elections are supposed to be about. you keep talking about us dems not having the republicans to blame anymore. thats exactly what we want! thats why we are running against you guys! so we are going to try it our way, and guess what the beautiful thing is, in just 4 short years, you get to come back on this board again and talk about how we cant afford to elect a democrat. if you are correct and this country becomes worse off (im not sure how thats possible) than maybe people will want a republican again... if we are right and the country is better off, than we all win, regardless of party affiliation.

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political_junki:

After VP debate she was up 80% on drudge poll as well.


Boom:
Back to my earlier point:
Goto foxnews's website. There is a question:

Question of the Day
Is Barack Obama's relationship to Bill Ayers troubling to you?

Yes 34%

No 66%

Total Voters:74147

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boomshak:

These Internet Polls (Drudge, CNN, etc) are worthless.

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Bigmike:

Missed the debate, its bowling night and I just got in.

Forgetting the lib responses, if BOOM says its over I take it the night did not go well for McCain.

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Ryguy:

id also like to say that if your tract record for predictions is any indicator, boom, than we will be in great shape over the next 4 years.

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MNLatteLiberal:

CNN instant poll (scientific one): Obama 54, McCain 30
Dems: 37
Reps 31


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NW Patrick:

Looking at Fox, CBS, and MSNBC online polls last week even with early voting it was like 55 - 45 Obama. Tonight? like 85-15 so far. BIG difference.

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boomshak:

@political_junki:

At this point, I don't care anymore. McCain had a HUGE chance tonight and just punted once again. I'm sick of his sh*tty campaign and can no longer defend him.

I hope Obama does as well as everyone thinks he will. Maybe it will be good having a POTUS the world and the MSM loves?

We'll find out.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Oh, and their opinions pre and post debate:

Obama Fav Pre 60, post 64
McCain Fav Pre 38 post 34

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mirrorball:

Also on the CNN poll. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but Obama's favorable rating went up by 4 or 5 points (unfavorables also lower), while McCain's were unchanged. Clearly McCain will not get a shift in momentum out of this.

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boomshak:

Yes Obama won because a tie goes to him.

I honestly would not be surprised to see Rasmussen +12 to +15 within a week.

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political_junki:

Not only MSM and the world, +50% love him, I hope the rest give him a chance atleast

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political_junki:

Not only MSM and the world, +50% of people of US love him, I hope the rest give him a chance atleast

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brambster:

CNN just reported:

Who Won?
Obama 54%
McCain 30%

Obama favorability (up 4 points from pre-debate)
Favorable: 68%
Unfavorable: 30%

McCain favorability (unchanged from pre-debate)
Favorable: 51%
Unfavorable: 46%

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political_junki:

I think Obama will go down though to +5 or +6.
Nobody regardless of everything will be able to maintain a 8+ lead for long

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brambster:

I might have gotten the Obama favorability wrong, it might have been:

Obama favorability (up 4 points from pre-debate)
Favorable: 64%
Unfavorable: 34%

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boomshak:

Obama's biggest thing he has done in these debates is to just seem like a reasonable guy. He did that.

God help us.

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MNLatteLiberal:

C'mon, boom, come aboard, we're expecting you. Remember that song?
My wife and I are co-hosting Mamas for Obama in the Twin Cities this weekend, come on over. I will give you your very own McFail/Panic yard sign I made up from a bunch of McCain propaganda.

I will even let you talk for five minutes to the live public. Deal or No deal?

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boomshak:

HERE'S WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN IN A NUTSHELL:

Tonight, McCain announced a major new initiative to have the government buy up all of these bad mortgages.

Romney is one of McCains' Chief Economic Advisors and HE DIDN'T EVEN KNOW MCCAIN WAS GOING TO ANNOUNCE THAT!

Just incredible sloppy, horribly run campaign.

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muckinello:

CNN Poll gives an overwhelming victory to Obama

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Mike In Maryland:

boomshat said...
"These Internet Polls (Drudge, CNN, etc) are worthless."

And who was the idiot who first brought up the Drudge poll, and trumpeting it in all caps?

Was it boomshat or someone else?

Why, I'm glad you asked that question, as it actually WAS boomshat, October 7, 2008 11:01 PM.

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political_junki:

My whole family is republican so I am used to people hating Obama or fearing him baselessly. I think what he should do is stay in the center.
*Well except one thing :
LIBERAL SUPREME COURT JUDGES, YAAAY :-)

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Ryguy:

political junki... one of my favorite lines in politics is

"well with how bad things are blank candidate should be up by 15+ points. the fact that they are only up by blank is an indicator of how hesitant people are to elect him/her."

its such a hilarious line i crack up every time. first of all its a tremendous insult to their own candidate. second of all, all of these guys are quite aware that a sustained 6 point lead is QUITE significant and impressive. they try to act as though there is not already a set electorate... and that every election we start at 0 on both sides and people just decide what party to belong to at some point during the campaign.

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IndependentThinker:

@MNLatteLiberal

Even though we're sharing the same political ideology I wanna to correct you on this one

"Obama Fav Pre 60, post 64
McCain Fav Pre 38 post 34"

I think you;re mistaking Obama's Unfav for McCain's Fav. The McCain Fav pre/post is around 52/56 therefore not that low :-)

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boomshak:

I'm telling you guys, this race is over. I think we are looking at a major landslide.

If Obama is going to win, then a landslide is best because it will mena he has to govern as he has run - as a MODERATE.

If he goes uber-lib on us there will be hell to pay.

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CaliforniaIndie:

Alex Castellano (Republican) on CNN said: "Tonight I learned that McCain was going to buy everybody a house."

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MNLatteLiberal:

Independent Thinker,
You might be right. I am multitasking here :) writing as I watch the numbers pop up on TV. Thanks for correcting me.

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political_junki:

@Ryguy:
Ditto. Well put.

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mirrorball:

Mccain's fav/unfav in the CNN poll was unchanged pre/post debate. 51/46.

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slinky:

he Asian markets are falling again. T. Boone Pickens claims to want my advice, but he's a liar. Obama won barely tonight. Still not specific or empathic enough, methinks. McCain can't seem to win. He just doesn't have the right positions or approaches. Tonight, he tried to rescue all the failing mortgages. Well, Countrywide and BofA are doing the same thing, finally, after fighting it and fighting it. Even FHA is doing the same thing. So, McCain just repeated what is (as of today) a thing to try and do.

But, Asia is crashing. It's too late. The commercial real estate market is damaged, badly. That wasn't Fannie or Freddie. That was Countrywide's contribution to the insanity.

No one knows how this will play out -- but I certainly prefer a smart guy to a middlin' one.

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laguna_b:

@Boomshak

I said it earlier today that you would be afflicted with Stockholm Syndrome and I was right! You sympathize with your captors....you are one of us now....bless you!

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slinky:

he Asian markets are falling again. T. Boone Pickens claims to want my advice, but he's a liar. Obama won barely tonight. Still not specific or empathic enough, methinks. McCain can't seem to win. He just doesn't have the right positions or approaches. Tonight, he tried to rescue all the failing mortgages. Well, Countrywide and BofA are doing the same thing, finally, after fighting it and fighting it. Even FHA is doing the same thing. So, McCain just repeated what is (as of today) a thing to try and do.

But, Asia is crashing. It's too late. The commercial real estate market is damaged, badly. That wasn't Fannie or Freddie. That was Countrywide's contribution to the insanity.

No one knows how this will play out -- but I certainly prefer a smart guy to a middlin' one.

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slinky:

The problem that Obama will have to contend with after he gets in is a biggie. This is the essence of it (from a NYTimes blog, written by someone else):

"... Obama lacks the power to bring real change to government and Wall Street as he will have to go up against the pitbull mentality of always bitter Republicans who would rather see the nation burn and crumble than to have successes happen during a democratic Presidency. Still, Obama is the only real choice as we cannot afford a McCain/Palin Greek tragedy..."

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Bigmike:

Sounds like I didn't miss much of a debate.

How many of those campaign promises will Obama actually deliver on?

Hold on to your wallets boys, here we go.

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maddiekat:

boomshak

I agree that Obama is going to win. Now would you and the rest of your party ask McCain and that pathetic pig in lipstick to stop trying to insite violence against the next President of the United States.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

I am the only one who didn't think Obama walked away with this? I thought it was reasonably close, but I would give Obama the edge. I don't think it will move the poll numbers by much, but again, as long as Obama maintains his edge, it's a win for him.

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boomshak:

@maddiekat:

Inciting violence? WTF are you talking about? Geesh, you moonbats creep me out sometimes.

____________________

boomshak:

@C.S.Strowbridge:

McCain needed to win and win big. He just wasn't up to it. Too bad.

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laguna_b:

@C.S.Strowbridge

I made up my mind for Obama a long time ago but didn't watch the debate....only the polls afterwards. Your opinion only is of value for you. The polls determine the vote....or predict. Obama clearly won based on them. Of course I think Mccain is totally lost and useless so he deserves to lose...I might have voted for him in 2000...thought he was solid then...not now.

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IndependentThinker:

Guys,take it from me the game is OVER
Now it'll come down to how much race will matter, this is the only thing that can save McCain

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boomshak:

Well, one thing will be interesting: to see what it's like to have a POTUS the media adores instead of trying top hamstring him 24/7.

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BOOMFAIL:
____________________

slinky:

@CS

Yes, it was a marginal win for Obama (again!).

I hope he learns to clearly articulate a direct answer after he gets in. Long winded speeches are painful for the listener.

____________________

Bigmike:

I believe elections tend to move closer as we approach election day. Buyers remorse, a natural tendency to support the underdog. I don't suppose it will be enough to make a difference.

I read Obama's health plan last night, on his web site. What a crock.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak GOD HELP US? It will be JUST horrible after 8 years of Bush to have Obama.

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laguna_b:

@boomshak

Time and age takes it's toll. Reagan was barely lucid and we paid for his stupidity....but he had good handlers...McCain is surrounded by vicious dogs who think Palin credible and will do AnYTHING to maintain POWER.

Let the old guy go home and get a good nap and retire....hey I am 61 I understand....

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Tony in Texas:

@boomshak

Hang in there guy. Don't worry, we are not going to become a socialist nation. We're simply going to get to witness something historical and, if you so wish, maybe even get to be a part of it. Our country, and I believe this from the bottom of by heart, is on the verge of greatness. And that takes a country to have a great leader like Obama. Wether you agree with his philosophy on policy or not, surely even you can agree that he is a brilliant man and a great leader.

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NW Patrick:

BigMike whats a CROCK is that the Unites States of America spends more on healthcare than any other country on earth, YET 50 million PEOPLE DONT HAVE IT. IDIOT.

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Mike In Maryland:

maddiekat,

If one is a member and/or supporter or sympathizer of a secessionist political party (like the pathetic lipsticked Palin), it is difficult for that person to tone down their secessionist tendencies. One of those tendencies is to cause political unrest, and one of the easiest ways to incite political unrest is violence against your political opponent. If you want political unrest, you are tone deaf when you or someone in the crowd advocates violence.

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laguna_b:

@NWPatrick

And you would prefer more of the same but more inept? Palin???? imme a break!

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NW Patrick:

Palin's WORTHLESS. BIG BLUNDER. BIG. A freakin' WOMAN ON THE TICKET didn't peal off even a PERCENT Of women voters from Obama. THATS PATHETIC.

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Boris_Dieter:

@BOOMSHAK

Do you pray for a successful Obama presidency, should he win? Or do you hope for failure and catastrophe, so that the GOP can win the next time? It's something that the GOP has always accused Democrats of, that they pray for death and destruction in Iraq and economic failure at home so that they can win an election.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

@boomshak:
"I honestly would not be surprised to see Rasmussen +12 to +15 within a week."

Glad to see you agree with me on this one! Obama double digits by this weekend.

On second thought, after looking over your accuracy rate on past predictions........

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

Bigmike:

Why Pattie Boy, we could have had an intelligent discussion on the finer points of plan Obama. Instead we call names.

I knew you guys were sore losers. Poor winners too? Should I be surprised.

Yes, his plan is full of CRAP.

____________________

laguna_b:

@NW Patrick

Kinda curious what a "dream ticket" would have een for you?

____________________

NW Patrick:

laguna_b huh? Re-read my post. Its SAD we spend more on healthcare than ANY nation yet don't insure 50 million of our OWN CITIZENS.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Laguna_b my DREAM ticket would have been Obama/Clinton but I'm completely satisfied.

____________________

laguna_b:

@Patrick NW
>>boomshak GOD HELP US? It will be JUST horrible after 8 years of Bush to have Obama.

My sarcasm antennae is out for adjustment... sorry :)

____________________

vmval1:

Romney /Jindal would have been a lot better.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Noah INTELLIGENT. Thank God for abortion.

____________________

laguna_b:

@Noah

It is Mr. President to you....not that you will ever get close enough to use the term....

____________________

Bigmike:

Noah needs bounced out of here. Hell, I'm an asshole and he offends even me.

____________________

illinoisindie:

so apart from discussions on hairplugs (unbelievable) McCain may have lost the election tonight. Here's my very careful caveat democrats... while I dont believe in the absolute relevance of the bradley effect this election... Obama needs to be up by at least 6 points going into the election ( and he knows that)...The youth vote needs to counteract the senior (socially conservative or insert whatever word you want to describe racism here)vote. The women will take care of the rest.

____________________

vmval1:

Then again, My Dead Grandma/ My Dog would have been better than the current Repub ticket...

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@Noah Jigaboo:

You're undoubtedly looking for attention on this blog.If I were you I would close my f**king mouth once for all

____________________

NW Patrick:

illinoisindie you're WRONG. The Bradley effect has no more than 1% effect AT THE MOST. Welcome to the year 2008. Look at the poll #'s vs. results for elections THIS decade. (TN for one.)

____________________

Bigmike:

Ok, illinoisindie offends me too. I can't be older, conservative (albeit more fiscally than socially), and NOT be reacist?

But indie can stay. I hope Noahs freakin computer crashes.

____________________

slinky:

@Bigmike,

I have tried to explain to you that the healthcare problem in the US is very complex. It is enormously clear to nearly every practitioner and patient that the current technique is NOT working. I am 54 years old, and in addition to being a doctor, I have periodontal disease. I just got a dental bill for $ 1000+ for myself! Yes, I have dental insurance and professional courtesy. And, yes it's not cosmetic; my parents have both lost their teeth, both in their 70s; they are now 90s.

So, here's the point. Read carefully the New England Journal of Medicine debate, NOT the policy on the candidate's pages, which is very simplified (too simplified for an engineer like you) and instead focus on the two offerings. Obamas is better. Try to figure out why.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0807607
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0807677?query=TOC

____________________

NW Patrick:

Noah Jigaboo is not relevant. Just another loser fading away into the sunset... no one cares...no one listens..they're not even employable. He'll be gone by morning.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Boomshank,
I'm curious...what do you think of Mccain's campaign? Before this election cycle I had some respect for Mccain, but it seems as if his campaign staff has not served him well?

I think he's received horrible advice on the stump and in preparation for the debates. And I think this is in stark contrast to Obama's team, which as far as I can tell is rewriting the book on how to run an effective campaign.

____________________

illinoisindie:

@NW Patrick
Im just going off of the stanford study. Look I am an Obama supporter, but I am not one to celebrate until I hear the fat lady (although i know the song). Look at NH primary poll this election... attribute the difference to whatever you want... Im just saying safe than sorry

____________________

NW Patrick:

I think the notion is RIDICULOUS that people tell pollsters ONE thing then do another. If you think the Obama lead is FAKE due to some fake effect you're an idiot. Why wouldn't you just say IM VOTING MCCAIN? There is nothing racist about that. Look at the results from Harold Ford Jr's election. Polls were close to the actual results. The damn supposed BRADLEY effect is 20 years old. People who WON'T VOTE for a black man probably weren't voting democrat ANYWAYS. And you have to understand the REVERSE effect... Minority #'s will be high.

____________________

slinky:

For Repubs. I have had personal experience with Bobby Jindal. He is the worst kind of evasive politician. He does not commit to a policy position unless he knows he will be supported by his superiors. His creativity in interpretation is limited by his perceived leash. He is not a creative thinker. I am not impressed.

____________________

boomshak:

@Indiana4Obama:

Boomshank,
"I'm curious...what do you think of Mccain's campaign? Before this election cycle I had some respect for Mccain, but it seems as if his campaign staff has not served him well?"

Horrifically bad campaign. Totally tone deaf. Handled Palin badly. Put out rotten commercials. Just bad in every aspect.

____________________

NW Patrick:

illinoisindie how did he win Iowa, Oregon, or Washington State? How did he beat Hillary in Idaho and Montana?

____________________

illinoisindie:

@ BigMike
Youre picking a fight.... why would you infer that all socially conservative people are racists from what i said...c'mon youre smarter than that... I happen to be socially conservative too.

____________________

boomshak:

Unless something dramatic happens, I think Obama wins in an a potentially major landslide.

I just hope like hell he governs like a moderate and hasn't been lying to us.

____________________

boomshak:

@vmval1:

"Romney /Jindal would have been a lot better.


Agreed. What would you have thought of Romney/Bloomberg?

____________________

slinky:

Obamas biggest problem will be Republican hostility. If you've studied the state government of New Jersey, you will understand what Obama is up against:

"... Obama lacks the power to bring real change to government and Wall Street as he will have to go up against the pitbull mentality of always bitter Republicans who would rather see the nation burn and crumble than to have successes happen during a democratic Presidency. Still, Obama is the only real choice as we cannot afford a McCain/Palin Greek tragedy..."

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow that was quick. Our latest racist is now gone from the site per email I just got from Mark.

____________________

slinky:

I have nothing negative to say about Michael Bloomberg.

Romney is a bit of a demagogue.

____________________

[nemesis]:

Just received an email. Noah Jigaboo will not be gracing us with anymore disgusting, offensive comments.

____________________

boomshak:

@Boris_Dieter:
@BOOMSHAK

"Do you pray for a successful Obama presidency, should he win?"

I pray that Obama will be the second coming if he wins. I have a business to run and I need a good economy.

However, I have serious doubts that he will be effective based upon his effectiveness or lack thereof to ths point.

____________________

illinoisindie:

@NW
Look more progressive states, I agree, but he lost NH and PA and OH....He wont win ID ok. Dont question my motive, if youve been around here for a while you would know that i supported Obama through the primaries and canvass for him... Denial of something doesnt mean it doesnt exist

____________________

[nemesis]:

NW Patrick:
"Wow that was quick. Our latest racist is now gone from the site per email I just got from Mark."


I guess multiple emails complaining about the same person will do that.

____________________

Disco Stu:

I think Obama hit it out of the park tonight (although I am biased.) I really like his comparison of investment in a new energy economy to JFK and the space race, and I thought he really nailed it on healthcare.
McCain provide nearly the detail he needed, and that one point where he refered to Obama as "...that one." I thought was extremely condescending. [Pssst...Sen. McCain, Sen. Obama is a U.S. SENATOR...just like YOU!]
I think Obama did better in comparison to the 1st debate.
Another observation: Visually, McCain really looked his age...wadling around stage. I think, in this case, a town hall format is less beneficial to McCain.

____________________

boomshak:

@slinky:

"I have nothing negative to say about Michael Bloomberg.

Romney is a bit of a demagogue."

I don't know about demogogue, but Romney does tend to pander a bit which annoys me.

____________________

laguna_b:

@boomshak

Governing is more critical than winning....you and I BOTH hope the best for an Obama Administration because after they win I have no alternative to go to....with Bush I could look forward to Dems....

____________________

Disco Stu:

[I meant to say McCain "DIDN'T" provide nearly the detail he needed...]

____________________

boomshak:

It will be an interesting social experiment to have a POTUS admired by th MSM.

____________________

Bigmike:

Darn, slinky, I figured I would go straight to the source, cut out the middle man. Who better to tell me about Obama's policy than Obama?

If that is the watered down version, you'd think they would have taken out the controversial parts. The really scary stuff. But there it is.

I doubt we would define "better" the same. I agree 40-50 million uncovered is not acceptable. But I also believe we will never get to 100%. In my view, "better" is how do we cut that number down in a cost efficient manner. By cost, I mean to the taxpayer.

I know, I am talking to the wrong crowd on this next point. Why should I have to do a lot of research to find out what a candidate is proposing? If Obama wants my vote, it is on him to get the word out about what he is proposing. I did him a favor by even going to his web site.

I don't owe him ****. If he wants my vote, he needs to work for it. It isn't my responsibility as a voter to have to read NEJM articles. Would you want to pour over a bunch of engineering articles to understand a candidates policy?

____________________

[nemesis]:

Alright folks, I watched the debate, saw Obama win, and took in enough of the post-debate banter and polls. I'm calling it a night. Go easy on each other... No matter what, everybody wants the country to succeed. Remember that!

____________________

vmval1:

@Boomshak:

I would have seriously thought about Romney/Bloomberg. I would have seriously thought about McCain/Bloomberg. He lost me completely the day he selected Palin

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@illinoisindie

During the primaries the only state in which the Bradley effect was supposedly noticed was in NH with 4 EV. On the other hand there was the reverse of Bradley effect in almost all states with a big AA population, 2 of them are not out of reach for Obama in Nov. Those 2 states are : NC and VA
So let's say due to the BE McCain might win NH with his 4 EV while Obama might win VA and NC with 38 EV combined

____________________

SuperCruncher:

Imagine the scenario.

A pollster calls and I am sooo ashamed that that person might think I am a racist if a say I am voting for McCain, that I lie and say Obama.

That implies McCain is David Duke or something.

Never mind that I don't seem to care that the pollster thinks I am sexist because I am not voting for Palin.

Race may be some issue in this race. But there is plenty of cover for any racist to proudly announce their support of McCain. So any racism is already evident in the polls.

Where do all these cowering racist live anyway. Not in America.

Ergo, the Bradley Effect = FAIL

____________________

Bigmike:

illinoisindie

"the senior (socially conservative or insert whatever word you want to describe racism here)vote"

"Youre picking a fight.... why would you infer that all socially conservative people are racists from what i said"

It still sounds that way to me. Maybe I am overly sensitive tonight. Didn't mean to be a sore loser.

Peace, brother!

____________________

SuperCruncher:

Imagine the scenario.

A pollster calls and I am sooo ashamed that that person might think I am a racist if a say I am voting for McCain, that I lie and say Obama.

That implies McCain is David Duke or something.

Never mind that I don't seem to care that the pollster thinks I am sexist because I am not voting for Palin.

Race may be some issue in this race. But there is plenty of cover for any racist to proudly announce their support of McCain. So any racism is already evident in the polls.

Where do all these cowering racists live anyway. Not in America.

Ergo, the Bradley Effect = FAIL

____________________

cinnamonape:

Boom: "Tonight, McCain announced a major new initiative to have the government buy up all of these bad mortgages."

How many trillions is THAT gonna cost? And then think of the bureaucracy! It'd make the US Gov't the biggest landlord EVER...it'd own EVERY bad mortgage in the U.S.?

This just blew every other thing McCain said about cutting the cost of government and limiting the deficit out of the water. And he's gonna cut taxes?

He's making up his financial plans on the fly! Far worse than Obama...who at least is honest about the need to balance revenue and expenditures.

And his only comment about Social Security "My friends, It's easy to solve." Nothing more...for an issue that took years to even generate some plans about. What's the easy solution? He doesn't say.

And Medicare..."I'll form a Commission". Yeah, just like Bush did with Social Security.

Jeesh...this was the totality of substance in the McCain economic plan?

____________________

IndependentThinker:

sorry I meant 28 EV combined

____________________

illinoisindie:

I agree that youre an idiot to tell pollsters one thing when your intentions is to do something else. While the percentage of those "confused" voters may be counteracted by increased minority voting (but obviously not in states with white populations like NH. I also think there is another aspect to the conversation...in some of these polls there is still a high percentage of undecideds... and it seems to be soft mccain support.
While I would also trade NH for VA anyday, Obama still needs mid 40's of whites in those states voting for him. All's Im saying is that complacency now with these 7pt margins 29 days out is not the soup du jour.

____________________

Bigmike:

Housing and mortgage industries go broke and the govt buys them out.

Insurance and banking industries go broke and the govt buys them out.

Health care industry goes broke and the govt is gonna buy them out (the Obama plan)

Sounds like I need to go broke while the govt still has ink to print money with.

____________________

cinnamonape:

The Bradley Effect was something that occurred in the 1982 California Gov. race and there were peculiar circumstances. Most of the impact wasn't actually with whites declaring support for Bradley and then reversing themselves. Rather it was that whites declared themselves "Undecided" and then decided to vote for Deukmejian. Bradley also ran a weak campaign in the more conservative Central Valley, where many remained "undecided" until the closing days of the campaign.

In addition Reagan had an impact, both campaigning for the "Duke" in the final days and simply making it okay for Democrats and Independents to switch to support the Republican.

There may have been some racial issues involved in the "undecideds" wanting to remain ambiguous in terms of their racial attitudes, but many misconceive the concept. Even then there were very few people committing to Bradley who "jumped". There was very little out-and-out "lying" to the pollsters...at least not until the exit polls were done. There people apparently did either deceive the exit pollster OR the pollster failed to account for people that "declined to answer" that overwhelmingly supported Deukmejian. Again, no lying may have been involved at all...

So the question would be - are people actually lying to the pollsters about Obama when they claim to support him? And even more, how does this tally with automated pollsters like Rassmussen...in which there should be no fear of responding honestly for reason of social embarassment? After all, they are responding to an automated voice.

____________________

voteforamerica:

2nd Debate: Live Analysis

Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.

____________________

Robi:

Except for NH primary polling, all the other primary polls with Obama and Hillary were very accurate on pollster.com. Bradley effect is not in play if it wasn't during the primary polling.

____________________

Rames1980:

"It will be an interesting social experiment to have a POTUS admired by th MSM."

The MSM was in the tank for Bush and the Iraq war in 2002-2003, including NYT. How did that feel?

The difficulty you're having right now is that facts on the ground don't agree with the Republicans, so you're blaming the MSM for bias. In fact, you should be blaming yourself for drinking the GOP Koolaid.

US MSM is in fact giving McCain a free ride in many ways - those outlets could easily be much, much more critical of him and his campaign. However research has shown that by and large, MSM has a Republican tilt (Chomsky co-authored a seminal work in this field, "Manufacturing Consent").

____________________

rambutan:

Vmval and boomshak considering (with hindsight) what McCain's campaign could have done differently.

I'm an Obama supporter, but I recognize that things would be looking a lot differently tonight if McCain had chosen Bloomberg (as vmval suggests) instead of Palin. The business and management expertise of Bloomberg would have been very hard for the Democrats to counter - especially if that ticket was flipped with Bloomberg on top.

Hindsight shows us that McCain's appeal to social conservatives and imaginary disgruntled Clinton women in choosing Palin was his most fatal mistake.

____________________

Florida Voter:

As the polling data builds that PA is out of reach for the Repubs, McCain has a big decision to make to divert these funds to Ohio, Florida, NC, VA and Indiana. It's really looking bad.

Expanding on Ranbutans comments on McCain's campaign failures, I would like to add some. Palin and John, never seem comfortable around each other. It's just not the same warmth that you see when McCain/Lieberman are together. I agree he messed up on his VP pick. Sarah has ignited the base, which he kinda needed, but he really needs to ignite the independents, which he can't win without.

And I think the biggest blunder is to never mention Bush by name. I would be running commercials stating "I am not Bush", "My policies are this and his were there." My stump speeches would be detailed in saying GWB did it this way and I am going to do it this way. Plain ole talk that people can understand. Bush is an albatross around his neck that he can't ignore, even though he has tried desperately to do. I'm not saying any of this would work, but it's quite obvious what he is doing today is not working at all.

____________________



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