Pollster.com

amen!

No wonder McCain pulled out of Michigan. It's starting to poll like California.

Well Michigan is very solid. And looks like we'll pick up a senate seat in New Jersey.

With this right-leaning Rasmussen poll, 10 of the last 13 FL polls (conducted by 10 different pollsters) have shown Obama ahead there, with 1 tie. 1 of the polls was a SUSA poll in which McCain held a 1-point lead by winning 21% of the African-American vote (not likely to happen on election day). The other poll in which McCain led (by 3) was a FL Chamber of Commerce survey that called "a list of frequent voters who [were] then screened for their likelihood of actually voting." In other words, this poll did not include newly registered voters, who are disproportionately young and (in FL) disproportionately African-American--2 of Obama's strongest demographics.

Obama is ahead in FL.

McCain cannot win without FL.

Why is McCain in WI today, MN tomorrow, and IA Saturday?

Darn it all, Indiana needs to start tilting, its getting very annoying

Need some outside groups to start buying ads in Indiana.

Remarkably low number of undecideds in North Carolina. I've seen that in several polls.

It will be interesting what happens to the North Carolina margins once gas prices start to stabilize. That is happening slowly. North Carolina was about 50 cents higher than the national average last week, but now down to about 36 cents above, and tightening daily.

I realize it's hardly the only or even the most significant factor in Obama's bump in North Carolina. Still, no doubt the gas shortages and higher prices have contributed.

I predicted a couple of weeks ago on many forums, including here, that gas would be at or below $3 on election day. It might be much earlier than election day. The national average is dropping about 5 cents per day if you check the Gas Buddy-type sites, now down to $3.31. The futures trading prices dropped below $2 today before closing slightly above.

Faithhopelove:

In response to why McCain is campaigning in WI, MN and IA --- 538 is projecting in total a loss for these three states at 33.2 points. Perhaps he figures he has a better chance in these three states than VA, OH, CO and FL --- inexplicable?

Indiana: come on, get with the program here. We know you can do it!

Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster, has just released a new FL poll--Obama 52, McCain 44. See:
http://strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_101008.htm

McCain's strategy--which does not have him visiting FL again until next Thursday at the earliest--is simply stupid.

Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster, has just released a new FL poll--Obama 52, McCain 44. See:
http://strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_101008.htm

McCain's strategy--which does not have him visiting FL again until next Thursday at the earliest--is simply stupid.

Another glance at the right-leaning Rasmussen FL poll finds this info in its narrative: "Obama is supported by 87% of Democrats and holds a fifteen point advantage among unaffiliated voters. McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans." For Obama to lead by only 3 points with these numbers, the poll's party ID breakdown must be very close to the 2006 midterm election--39% R, 36% D, and 25% I. However, new FL voter registrations have given Democrats a 4% party ID advantage there. Weighted accordingly, Rasmussen's numbers play out to an Obama lead of about 8 points in FL--which is how much today's Strategic Vision poll shows Obama ahead there.

Reflections & A Personal Note to the Arizona Senator from an Admirer, who merely calls himself Ulysses for the sake of posting on this site.

"ABCNews.com - October 9, 2008 04:05 PM. Obama buying 30 minutes of time on CBS, NBC and MSNBC at 8PM on October 29th."

One can only feel for McCain's strategists who -- like the hapless passengers in "The Poseidon Adventure" -- find themselves upsidedown underwater as deck after deck floods upward, trapping them in ever more cramped and desperate circumstances. As an Independent who has worked this town for awhile, and who has always held the Senator in great regard, I can only distantly feel the grim sense of doom that must be flooding their minds right now... looking at the polls, the stock market crash (for now it truly is a crash), a seemingly unstoppable and ever more confident opponent, and now the news that the super-solvent juggernaut of the Obama campaign is buying up a gigantic slice of America's prime time TV attention on the eve of the election. Obama's campaign is once again playing an amazing game of chess. For McCain, a heroic and good man, one can only hope that gutter attacks and personal smears -- something he has railed against (rightly) his entire career, and of which he was so unfairly the victim at the hands of GW Bush in former days -- are not his last word.

Senator McCain: if you are listening, please remind us of your own greatness and integrity. Either go out as a winner, or lose like a hero.

faithhopelove, I agree with you but a slight correction to the numbers. A 15 point lead among Independents who are about 20% translates to 3 points. Since this is the margin Ras reports, I am assuming they used 40% each of R and D party IDs.

Hey everyone please check out this great article about how Barack Obama has, get this, actually passed legislation AND worked ACROSS THE AISLE!!!!!!!

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2008/10/taking-on-his-p.html

@Commander_King:

Actually the New Jersey race is mislabeled and Lautenberg is the incumbent.

unfortunately no pickup there

Obama sent his top two dudes to Florida this morning for the rest of the process. His plan is very obvious, he is going to win Florida while he keeps McLiar working his as# off in Virginia and NC. Palin is an absolute cancer in Florida and his health care and / social security policies is a real loser for McDick.

Republican pollster Strategic Vision has also released a new OH poll today--Obama 48%, McCain 46%. See:
http://strategicvision.biz/political/ohio_poll_101008.htm

This poll has a similar result to the earlier ARG poll, which shows Obama up 3 in OH. The party ID breakdown and other demographic numbers of ARG's sample track closely with the 2006 midterm election exit poll.

Part of the SV poll and all of the ARG poll were in the field before the debate (won by Obama), as well as Obama's 2-day, 5-stop visit in OH.

Cute little tune about THAT ONE. THAT ONE"s gonna be my president!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmOUP0U5PNk

In NJ, Lautenberg is the incumbent.

I'd like to see more Obama cushion in FL.

Thanks, sunnymi. Either way, right-leaning Rasmussen probably has too many Republicans in his sample.

@ Ulysses

I am voting for Obama. But I have voted Republican before.

Your words really capture my feeling. I want to believe McCain is a decent man. And I hope he does not fully descend into this shameful nonsense as his final legacy.

OK new Strategic Vision Polls are very good news for Obama for two reasons: (1) This is a right-leaning poll and (2) the sample size is large.

Florida - Obama 52, McSame 44
Ohio - Obama 48, McSame 46

Now if you adjust the internals on the Rasmussen poll, you get a 6-7% lead for B.O. in Florida. This is not much different than the Rasmussen/Fox News poll released on Monday which showed Obama up by 7. Ohio seems to be close with a slight advantage to Obama.

Indiana is still in play.

We're trying here in Indiana to make it happen. This has been a red, red state for so long that I'm still somewhat surprised it's turned into a tossup.

But as someone who's participated in the ground game I can tell you the organization is superb.

We're trying her in Northern Indiana, too. But we're also fighting generations of Republican tradition. The fact that Obama is still competitive here this late in the game is in itself amazing.

I have worked on campaigns for more than 20 years and I have never seen the level of excitement and dedication from volunteers that I have seen with the Obama folks. it's really awesome to see.

Hoosier:

I get the sense that central Indiana is in great shape for Obama. I also sense that the INDY suburbs are really excited about Obama. The key may be southwestern Indiana (Evansville area) and the northern part of the state where Obama needs to make some inroads.

I agree...the discrepancy in enthusiasm here between Obama and Mccain is striking.

Go Hoosier and Indaina4O!!

Dear folks : I have on good authority (yeah right) that John McCain was named after Colonel John Scott. I am a strong supporter of Charles II. New York was named after his brother. I admired Sidney Greensteet as an actor and I repect McCains's parents right to name him after the man who was obsessed with the Maltese Falcon. If any of you GOP'ers get 50 per cent on this quiz I will be amazed.

Just as I suspected GOP - Dumb.

I win - It's sad that any of you GOPERS lack wit. Pathetic. Go ahead and vote for Sidney and Sister Sarah : Clint wants his mule back.

If it's close in IN, that's a win and a testament to both Obama's message and the work his camp there. If Obama/Biden win it's a stunner. Biden should spend some time in IN; he's the kinda guy that can make IN conservatives feel comfortable about the ticket (experience, small town background).