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Rasmussen: GA, LA, MN, WA (10/22)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
Mode: IVR

Georgia 10/22, 500 LV, 4,5%
McCain 51, Obama 46
Sen: Chambliss (R-i) 47, Martin (D) 45

Louisiana 10/21, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 57, Obama 41
Sen: Landrieu (D-i) 53, Kennedy (R) 43

Minnesota 10/22, 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 56, McCain 41
Sen: Franken (D) 41, Coleman (R-i) 37, Dean Barkley (Ind) 17

Washington 10/22, 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 54, McCain 43
Gov: Gregoire (D-i) 50, Rossi (R) 48


 

Comments
Dave:

Come on Martin!

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nathan:

Time to PUMP Obama money into Georgia. Rock the vote and get Martin elected.

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BigTex:

The shopping spending spree is really undermining McCain's campaign. All one has to do is watch his expressions during the interview with Brian Williams. She just cannot grasp national politics and it is an incredible drag on McCain.

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BigTex:

Let us not forget what wins elections. It is positive people with a positive message.

Reagan with a new morning in America
Clinton where he believes in a place called Hope
GW Bush with his Compassionate Conservativism

Obama has the look of positive confidence and McCain of someone flustered and exasperated.

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thorfinn:

The interesting thing with this poll is that it does not include the Indepedents. Barr is from GA. He could pull 2-3%.

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Basil:

@BigTex

Good point. That's what Obama was saying about Reagan when Hillary jumped on him for it. It's also something no amount of experience can make up for.

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Lechuguilla:

I agree that Obama needs to pump money into Georgia ... along with North Dakota and Montana.

This is second poll today I've seen with Franken leading Coleman in Minnesota.

Lech

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cinnamonape:

The Gregoire-Rossi race is the 5th she's ahead or tied. But clearly this is razor thin, and turnout might be everything.

SUSA 10/22 500 LV 48 50 - 2 +2D
Elway 10/16-19 405 RV 39 51 - 10 +12D
SUSA 10/12-13 544 LV 47 48 - 5 +1D
Ras 10/2 700 LV 48 48 1 2 0
SUSA 9/21-22 682 LV 48 50 - 3 +2D

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cinnamonape:

Here are the Franken series in MN. He's been holding a steady lead in surveys there though many within the MOE. But this is actually a loss of two in the Rasmussen survey since the last poll they did.

Ras 10/22 500 LV 37 41 17 5 +4D
Big Ten 10/19-22 583 LV 34 40 15 - 11 - +6D
SUSA 10/16-18 655 LV 41 39 18 - 2 - +2R
StarTrib10/16-17 1049 LV 36 39 18 - 7 - +3D
DKosR2K 10/14-15 600 LV 39 41 18 - 2 - +2D
Quin/WSJ/P 10/8-12 1019 LV 36 38 18 - 8 - +2D
Rasmuss 10/7 500 LV 37 43 17 - 3 - +6D
Quin/WSJ/P 10/3-7 1076LV 37 39 17 - 7 - +2D
MPR/HI 10/3-5 418 LV 37 41 14 - 8 - +4D
StarTrib 9/30-10/2 1084LV 34 43 18 - 5 - +9D

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Hell yea, lookin good for us.

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cinnamonape:

The Chambliss lead has utterly collapsed from in the 20% range to 17-19% this summer (on Strategic Visions and POS). It's now pretty clearly within the MOE...but Martin needs that extra little "push". Maybe he's getting that from early voting, large Democratic turnout, GOTV and perhaps discouragement in the GOP.


Ras 10/22 500 LV 47 45 1 - 7 +2R
DCorps 10/16-19 600 LV 48 44 - - 8 +4R
DKos)/R2K 10/14-15 600 LV 47 45 5 - 3 +2R
SUSA 10/11-12 547 LV 46 43 6 - 5 +3R
InsAdv 10/9 531 LV 45 45 - 2 8 0
Ras 10/7 500 LV 50 44 2 - 4 +6R
StratVis (R) 10/5-7 800 LV 47 44 4 - 5 +3R
DKos/R 2K 9/29-10/1 600 LV 45 44 - 4 7 +1R
SUSA 9/28-29 677 LV 46 44 5 - 5 +2R
Mellman (D) 9/24-28 600 LV 37 34 3 - - +3R

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cinnamonape:

Also in that Georgia race Max Cleland is actively supporting Martin and is quite prominent in the campaign. That reminds folks of the slurs made against him...Cleland was opposed to the Iraq War. Now that the war is unpopular people may seriously regret their votes and responding to the slurs. This could be a make up opportunity.

Chambliss has that as an albatross around his neck, as well as voting for the unpopular Wall Street bail-out.

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joethedummer:

georgia is in play, yesss weeeee cannnnnnnnnn!

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jlm9:

If Bob Barr gets 3-4% in GA the Obama will most likely take GA. Also AA turnout among early voters is over 30%. If it stays that high McCain has real problems here. Personally, Even if GA stays red I hope to god we get rid of Saxby Chambliss he is one of the dirtiest sleaziest candidates ever to run. His latest ads suggest that Jim Martin 'kills' children. AJC ran an article yesterday suggesting that there could be a state runoff on 4th Dec between Martin and Chambliss. If that happens expect Obama in Hotlanta (which is rather wet and cold this morning) once he POTUS elect.

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BigTex:

Remember Diebold voting machines rule Georgia so it will be very tough for Obama and Martin to win there.

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couseydee:

Minnesota is locked up. McCain, can you please take your face off of my TV?

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vaview:

I think the really noticeable thing in these polls is this:

Washington State - McCain pulled out ages ago and Obama's lead is steady
Minnesota - McCain's been campaign and sleazing up a storm and Obama's lead has ballooned.
Georgia - The McCain camp moves in and his numbers plummet.
Louisianna - I don't think McCain's on the air here (?) and his numbers look good.

If I were Steve Schmidt I'd tell McCain he needs to pull all advertising everywhere right now and hope to come out with a respectable close loss. Everywhere McCain goes into heavily he disillusions voters. Pundits said ages ago that this race was all about Obama, but McCain isn't letting that happen (I think he'd still loose but it'd be a lot closer) I really think that when McCain put his (let's admit it) "tired old" face on the TV and rolls out the sleazy Republican '00-'04 voice-over guy who says "Congressional Liberals" like its a curse word, he drops off the face of the election.

Basically the Republican hate-TVad machine is the devil that America knows all too well, and I think that old adage "Better the devil you know" applies, but the devil you don't know is better than the devil you're getting rubbed in your face during the commercial breaks.

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MileHigh:

@Nathan-

You're spot on! I acutally think Obama will win GA. That's a ballsy prediction, but I don't think they are polling the AA and cell phone crowd effectively. It's crucial that Martin wins; we need that 60 seat majority.

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axe2grind:

New GA poll from Insider Advantage

O - 48
M - 47

Senate:
Chambliss - 44
Martin - 42

Georgia is one of the top states with job loss this year. This would be a huge upset, but it's in play. Of the six toss-up states left, Obama leads in the average in 5/6. Montana is the only state he's behind in. We have a great chance there, with a very popular democratic govenor.

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couseydee:

@VAVIEW:
That really is spot on. You should work for network news! Living in Minnesota, I have seen this first hand. Obama has barely advertised here, and at first I was worried.
As the weeks went on of constant attack ads from McCain, Obama's numbers kept inching up by about 2 or so points in every poll.

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