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Rasmussen: GA, NH, OR (10/30)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen Reports
Mode: IVR

Georgia 10/30; 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 47
Sen: Chambliss (R-i) 48, Martin (D) 43, Buckley (L) 7

New Hampshire 10/30; 700 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 44
Sen: Shaheen (D) 52, Sununu (R-i) 44

Oregon 10/30; 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 52, McCain 42
Sen: Merkley (D) 49, Smith (R-i) 46

 

Comments
Thatcher:

Georgia is at 99% decided with 1% not sure and NONE for Bob Barr? I'm not buying it.

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thoughtful:

@Thatcher

I am not buying this GA poll either, especially with the early voting stats.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@thoughtful

AA turnout for Obama is impossible to fully gauge so you can't hold it against them.

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cinnamonape:

Here's anothere reason that Ras might be wrong.

http://projects.ajc.com/gallery/view/metro/early-voting-1031/

This is a massive turnout. And we've all seen how those early voter stats have been trending.

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BrookLynda:

All polls now essentially agree on one thing, which is

McCAIN WILL LOSE NH.

And that is very bad news for him. His Hail Mary depends on NH.

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Inkan1969:

I'm not sure how these polls that put GA decisively in McCain's column square with these huge early voting lines I've been seeing all day in the news.

I'm really happy with the NH results. It was Ras that put the worry about NH last week. Now Obama is over 50% and has a 7 point lead.

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straight talk:

His sampling is so Small! But I will take it!

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Louis:

Let's be clear on early voting it only makes a difference if it effects the final turnout. If more Obama voters vote early and more McCain voters vote on election day it is a wash if the total turnout is the same.
Only if we assume that the large advantage for Democrats in early voting means a higher turnout overall for Democrats can we assume a Democratic advantage this will be an unknown utill the nd of the day on election day.

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mago:

Sure, we can fault him if he's wrong--a pollster who polls "Likely Voters" is taking on the responsibility to figure out who is voting, and to know at least as much about it as other observers. Now the link doesn't supply crosstabs, so I don't know what model he's using,

And he may turn out to be right, I'm just saying it's fair to judge him if he's not.

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straight talk:

HIstory supports early voting! McCain need an extreme GOTV to dig himself out of Nc, Ga, NV, Co! He better get karl rove!

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NW Patrick:

What allows me to sleep at night.

#1 - Obama is polling well amongst white folks. In some cases, as high as Jimmy Carter in the 70's.

#2 - Bush won over 50% of the Hispanic vote. McCain? Not even close.

#3 - Women overwhelmingly for the DEMS, as usual, even WITH a female on the ballot as VP.

#4 - Early voter turn out.

#5 - POLLING! Even at the state level. If McCain wins this would be the largest polling disaster in US HISTORY. Unlikely.

#6 - So many paths to 270.

#7 - In 2004, Bush's RCP average was 1.5%. Obama's? 6.5. Bush won by 2.5%.

#8 - Obama's clearly winning independents in almost EVERY poll.

#9 - Polling has consistently shown an enthusiasm gap. Even with Palin, real conservatives JUST AREN'T EXCITED.

#10 - Dems now outweight Republicans by over 6%.

#11 - The electoral college map compared to '04 is literally NIGHT AND DAY.

#12 - In '04 about 15 polls predicted a Bush win, 5 or so did for Kerry. TODAY? All 20 show an obama win. This is UNLIKELY to change by Monday night.

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Pat:

I just saved every one's responses from our earlier EV challenge by LIZ from NJ. Let's see who will win.

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carl29:

Louis,

I think that even if the same people turnout Obama is still ahead. Look at Gallup TRADITIONAL likely voter model. That model consist in just the people who have a history of voting. That model sees this election like all others in the pass, no difference. Even in that model Obama is ahead, today by 51% to McCain's 43%.

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cinnamonape:

Louis...I absolutely agree. But early votes are "in the bag" and one doesn't need to get them out. It likely suggests something about voter enthusiasm, as well.

What this means is that (assuming that these early voters are disproportionately "for Obama") that he can spend all the remainder of the three days rousting whatever remaining voters he needs out to the polls. The time can be used in locating those remaining, while McCain has to worry about getting the same (or more) out on the very day of the election.

As well, these are lines of a single day of voting of several early days". The lines have been hours long. Imagine what they may be like on election day. Again, the enthusiasm level issue plays a role here...especially if there is the thought that "it's already in the bag". But that plays both ways. But the early voters can't walk away from the polls.

They are already being counted.

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DecaturMark:

Hey, I waited in one of those lines in GA. We were all quite happy to spend the time because we knew that we were going to help change this country. This is why I think we will win GA. We were willing to sacrifice some time in order to make sure that our vote was counted. Others might not be so willing.

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thoughtful:

@Pro-America_Anti-America

Its not impossible to guage at all so far its running at 32% voting against 25% of RVs.

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NW Patrick:

It's ludicrous to believe Nov. 4th won't see the same enthusiasm as the early voters. It's going to be a shocker guys. I have a feeling Dems will be even shocked at the outpouring that is coming.

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lhtk:

Rather typical Ras numbers, making the Oregon Senate numbers that much more nice.

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M2:

@ NW Patrick

I think you might be right that the surge for the Dems will take people by surprise. There's a fairly rational, non-partisan for why it might happen too. The one thing Americans are really good at, regardless of party, is they come together in a crisis.

Well, this is a crisis and I suspect a lot of people are using some common wisdom here. The Republicans have been running the show most of the past eight years, might as well give the other team the ball and see if they can do any better. McCain never branded himself as a radical new breed of Republican, he hasn't swayed his party in a new direction. As such, I just don't see where he'll be enough of a departure for those applying that sort of pragmatism to this election.

My suspicion is voters will decide to give the ball to the smart, young guy and supply him with the Congressional team he needs to get something done.

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Many people ask what difference early voting makes. As an Obama GOTV volunteer, I can tell you it matters A LOT! Since we have a good idea of who has already voted, we can more easily target a smaller number of voters on election day and make sure that they all get to the polls.

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gufu53:

Another Republican for Obama? I just heard a TV spot from Gordon Smith urging folks to vote for him, to avoid one-party government!

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Gary Kilbride:

NW Patrick, your list was good but regarding #2, Bush did not win more than half the Hispanic vote. He cut into the traditional Democratic margin but it didn't equate to a majority. I think there was some dispute over the final margin, but every indication was Kerry won Hispanics by high single digits if not more.

I feel bad for you guys in the states where early voting is a chore. CNN ran a piece a couple of nights ago on how easy we have it here in Nevada. You literally find a major shopping mall or grocery store, on the list of available early polling places, and stroll right up to an open spot among a counter of poll workers, and this is the process:

* Hand them your sample ballot which arrives in the mail about a week ahead of time and serves as ID

* They ask for your birth date

* Once that is verified on the computer, you sign a piece of paper on a clipboard

* Then you are given a little yellow credit card-type device and directed to an open machine

* At that point you vote, maybe 3 or 4 races per screen. The full list of your choices is presented for review at the end, then a paper trail review at left, before you submit the ballot

* The beauty is easy access, little to no waiting. The sample ballot received in the mail is actually about 60-70 pages, in English and Spanish, listing every available polling place and the days and hours. We also get a very helpful explanation of the ballot issues in plain language, with an argument for and against passage, then followup rebuttals to the initial argument.

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DPartridge:

There's no proof there's a "large" turnout for dem's in Georgia in early voting. The black turnout is only +5% over the percentage of black voting population, while the white vote is only 3.4% less then average. The black vote in recent elections splits about 90-10 for the Dem's and the white vote 75-25 for the Repubs in Georgia.

The black vote percentage must be ahead by 10% or greater then the white vote percentage for Obama to even have a chance. All this of course, assumes a 75-25 split again for the white vote, and a 95-5 for the black vote. In Georgia, you can't be so sure of either of those facts.

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cinnamonape:

Rasmussen Georgia Series

10/30/08 500 LV 52 47 - - 1 - +5R
10/22/08 500 LV 51 46 0 - 3 - +5R
10/7/08 500 LV 54 45 - - 1 0 +9R
9/16/08 500 LV 54 43 0 - 3 - +11R
8/14/08 500 LV 53 44 1 - 2 - +9R
7/17/08 500 LV 53 42 1 - 4 - +11R
6/26/08 500 LV 53 43 1 - 3 - +10R
6/4/08 500 LV 51 41 - - 2 6 +10R
5/6/08 500 LV 53 39 - - 2 6 +14R

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cinnamonape:

DPartridge

According to this site African Americans comprise more than 35% of the early voters.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

According to this the number of registered African American Voters in Georgia is about 27% of the total. That's +8%.

White voters make up 67% of the total registered voters, but 60% of the early voters. That's -7%

http://www.georgiatrend.com/politics/01_08_politics.shtml

It's hard to know precisely how the white/black split might be in this election. I would suspect that fewer whites will vote for McCain than Bush in 2000 or 2004 because Bush was somewhat "Southern" and due to the economic collapse, while black voters may have been more likely to vote across party lines for Bush (vs. Gore or Kerry). That's the intangible.

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GeorgiaMom:

I just spent 5 hours in line in Atlanta suburb. The race in GA will be very close. I firmly do not believe 75% of white voters will vote for McCain. Many of my co-workers are pro-Obama. Small-town GA, yes. But the suburbs are largely made up of transplants. I really hope GA and AZ go blue.

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superknower:

my guess: Obama 311, McCain 227. Obama will defend the blue states but McCain will take the toss-ups. Maybe Florida will go blue though.Ohio could go red.

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DPartridge:

cinnamonape:

We disagree on the percentage breakdown for voters by race. I got my numbers from the GA State page and mine are more current:

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/voter_registration/vrgraphs.htm

That clearly indicates that as of Oct. 1, blacks made up 29.23 of the vote, while whites made up 63.52% of the vote. Hence my reason for 5% and 3% being the numbers. Your numbers are based on January 2008...

Part of the problems with the polling being done lately, is that pollsters and pundits are having to assume to much.

From Gallup's site:
Blacks constitute a higher percentage of Gallup’s projected likely voter pool than in previous elections, based on increased thought given to the election and greater self-reported likelihood of voting.

The self-reported liklihood of voting though is where blacks have consistently overstated the actuality. Albeit... this won't be a normal election for them.

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burrito:

@Thatcher:

"Georgia is at 99% decided with 1% not sure and NONE for Bob Barr? I'm not buying it."

I don't buy it either ... specially since the senate race shows a 7% for the Libertarian party ... which would mean that the Georgia's Libertarian party is not voting for Georgia's own Libertarian party leader.

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