Pollster.com

Darn, this poll may very well stop McCain from flushing money down the toilet in NJ.

OK! I give up already, there are too many polls all over the place
I have a headache

Most interesting thing here is the almost competitive GA senate race...otherwise drive on through.

Barr: 0 in his home state. Yikes.

NJ is OFF the table. Always was.

Georgia is likely off the table to (unless there's an Obama landslide) but it will be within single digits...though it'll probably be high singles.

Here's what I am taking away from all these national polls:

IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE PARTY AFFILIATION WEIGHTING THEY USE, OTHER THAN THAT, THE POLLS ARE IDENTICAL:

Battleground Poll gives Dems only a 3 point advantage - McCain +2
Rasmussen gives Dems a 5 point advantage - Tied
DailyKos gives Dems a 9-10 point advantage - Obama +6

So basically this race is dead even tied with any other variation attributed to the sample weighting.

Whatcha bet after all the shouting is done, 2008 turns out exactly like 2004?

serpounce - no, no , no , no, no. There is still a good chance for him here. I would strongly urge McCain to push forward with offices and ads in NJ and CT (my new home state). I see McCain yard signs here and there. Rove - are you listening?

Speaking of which - there was allot of outrage at someone looking at Sarah Palin's private e-mail; and I have to agree; unless it's within the government's warantless search program - no one should be looking at another's private e-mail or listening to our phone calls; again unless its the government. Because there's no right to privacy, the word doesn't appear in the Constitution (see Grisswald v. CT et al.). Hence no right to private e-mail, legal first term abortions (see Roe v. Wade, et al.), or birth control (see again Grisswald v. CT. et al.).

Interesting Boomshak, but why assume that it's Rasmussen who has the "right" number?

@1magine... right, and CA would be another great target, start with a few ad buys in the LA media market, just see what happens... they have a republican governor, right!

well it's about time..

eric just made wisconsin a toss up.

like, how come it took you so long????

new jersey becomes gold next week.

and if it gets too close, i'll how to scour youtube for the old obama clip in NH about big trouble in his marriage and take biden down for coopting a kucinich speech during the primaries.

that's a promise.

Yep, first time in a long time McCain is ahead on the map now....lot of blue's went yellow.....Obama better get his mojo back soon.
Debates in a week, wil be key!

Stillow, IN and WV also went yellow recently so it's not all movement to McCain... more movement towards chaos...

I think Georgia is in obama's reach, he needs more outsiders flown in. since he's doing okay in penn. , he should move his staff for penn to georgia and montana and go for those state.. oh, and maybe utah too.

Boomshak i agree completely!

If you take the raw numbers from the NYT/CBS poll, which had an unprecidented 11% spread in party affiliation and apply Rasmussens weighting of party affiliation it is tied, the same result as Rasmussen.

Why use Rasmussen's weighting because they sample 45,000 people to get it. That's right 45,000, not a typo Forty Five thousand people sampled.

There is no margin of error basically.

Gallup's numbers also agree with them.

Party id is somewhere around 3% as of today. I don't subscribe to Rass so I don't know the internals for today. The average of the last six weeks is just over 5% but that includes all of August.

The variety of numbers in national polls are for the most part about weighting of party id.

To be clear Gallup isnt weighting for party id andisn't screening for LV. They said they were going to after the conventions but haven't. LV voters vs RV also accounts for some of the differences. LV trend towards McCain.

you know, iowa looks kinda iffy for obama.

with the newest paulson intervention which i dont fully understand, things may brighten in the economic arena which is the worst possible news for obamites who have trouble thinking beyond the tip of their nose.

but anyway, here's the point for what it's worth: it looks like illinois may be totally squeezed by yellow in the next little while.

some of that yellow around the great lakes is heading to red so let's just suppose here, that some go red and the rest stay yellow, what happens to the home state for obama?

IS IT POSSIBLE that illinois begin to shift away from him considering that illinois looks a lot like michigan and wisconsin?

just a thought, the squeeze is on.

oops, look like it is game over for Mccain and the helicopter hunter.

TOASTED!!

Looks like Americans are finally seeing the farce that is Palin. Rats, I was hoping the markets went down even more for Obama on intrade so I could make some more money. Oh well.

Hey, all you retardlican trolls - mind going to intrade and betting on your most amazing ticket? Please? Daddy needs a brand new car.

C'mon, just put a little bit of money on your guy - you guys sure spew a lot of BS on these boards - why not back it up? Or do YOU not even believe half the garbage you write on here????

New Jersey was never in play.

Georgia was probably never in play and definately not anymore.

Illinois will never go to McCain.

There are all these polls out there right now and it's easy to lose track of the big picture. This is evident even in Pollster which shows a whopping 128 electoral votes as being toss up.
_______________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

@serpounce

I just basically like Rasmussen's methodology. I like how he tells me in advance ewhat his weighting will be based upon.

But the point was not just that only Rasmussen is right but that the movement was due to polling methodology and not actual changes in the electorate.

Obama is comfortably ahead in NJ and CT, no surprise. McCain is comfortably ahead in GA, no surprise. Although I'm skeptical that Barr gets 0% -- GA should be his strongest state.

Everything here in line with expectations. It looks like they moved all the midwest states into the toss-up zone.

Looking at the map, if 4 points is the margin to get a state to go yellow, then FL is 0.1 point away from going back to yellow. Given the recent trends, it looks like we may have seen McCain's high water mark.

HERE IS WHY GOOD POLLING NUMBERS FOR OBAMA ACTUALLY HURT HIM:

One thing that happened right after McCain got the Palin bounce was that party enhtusiasm shifted hard to Republicans. Obama supporters were interviewed and said that they had grown complacent, figuring it was in the bag.

Now we have these MSM polls over-inflating the party affiliation numbers again for Obama so that the MSM can have talking points showing Obama ahead by more than he is (I remind you, state polls DO NOT confirm the size of the Obama National surge - this confirms to me that Democrats are being oversampled nationally).

So by creating a false "safety zone" for Obama in these polls, he young followers tend to become complacent once more.

We'll see. When it is all over I am guessing the winner will win by less than 2 points and not have a mandate for change either way.

If Senators like Chambliss, start getting knocked-off, Obama will have the capability to enact dramatic change, mandate or not.

"When it is all over I am guessing the winner will win by less than 2 points and not have a mandate for change either way."

LOL. In 2000 Bush won the closest election in US history. He had 50 senators and a handful of a majority in the house. No mandate? The uniter screamed off to the right.

You can bet that if Obama wins it will be with close to 60 seats in the senate and a 40+ majority in the house. THAT's a mandate.

Yep, right you are there, boomshak.

See Mark L's comments about how voters shifting from independent to McCain can actually depress his numbers if the sample weighting remains the same.

Basically if Ind move Mccain but the same number of Rep/Dem/Ind are sampled the ind will swing Obama when infact independents are just identifyingthemselves as republicans and therefor weighted out of the sample.

This is all that has happened in many polls, and yes an increase for McCain by voters shifting from Independent to supportinghiim can actually lower his polling numbers. Mark L explains it better in the thread on weighting for Party ID.

Crazy and counter intuitive but True.

@CAlefty:

"The uniter screamed off to the right."

Huh? Just ask Republicans what they think of Bush - he is NO conservative.

"2004: Part Deux"

Tickets on sale now, opening Nov 4.

I just noticed something. Obama's entire rust belt power base is almost all yellow.

Wow. Isn't that contrary to the shift in national Polls?

yeah, okay boomsuck. Who elected him twice? Yeah, that's what I thought. You idiot republicans elected him twice. STFU. He is YOUR guy - live with the worst president ever title. OWN IT BIZNUTCH.

Now you guys are going around talking up two of the dumbest bush clones to walk the earth. Mr. 894 out of 899 and Ms. Creationism. Palin actually reminds me of a female version of Bush - except even dumber. I didn't think that was even possible.

@mccainandpalinareliars:

Dude, you are like the prototype liberal: profane and vacuous. DailyKos should patent you!

Right again, boomshak. 2004: Part Deux. Right you are.

You mean like the president you tards elected twice, you pathetic joke?

Why don't you go on over to fox news?

Or better yet, go to intrade and bet your weekly mcdonald's wage on your grandpa winning the election. Yeah, didn't think so. That would take cojones.

Funny how repub trolls say it will be like 04 and yet they won't wager their money on it......hmmmm, wonder WHY?

You gonna take that, boomshak?

boomshat,

'The uniter' certainly didn't go to the left in his policies. If he didn't go to the left, that leaves one direction for him to go, doesn't it? And so what direction did he go?

No need to answer that, boomshat, as the readers with brains can easily figure it out. Those without brains will try to spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin.

BTW - don't you get dizzy with all your spinning? If not, it proves you have nothing between the ears, something we've suspected for a long time.

"boomshat" - good one mike.

From Sullivan:

Almost the entire world is appalled at the farce of the Palin pick, and what it says about McCain's contempt for foreign policy and national security. Here's a take from Israel:

"This would never have happened in Israel, ever" remarked a journalist friend, referring to the choice of Governor Palin, whose credentials in the realms of foreign policy, statecraft and the military are limited in the extreme. With irony bordering on the painful, the journalist added, "Sarah Palin has restored my faith in Israel."

Yes: Palin would be an unimaginable pick in any other advanced country. Foreign leaders and publics have been told one thing by this selection: McCain is not a serious world leader. But for neocons who regard alliances as impediments to the projection of raw military power, the opinions of mankind are actually a reason to vote for Palin.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/the-world-and-p.html

And for the repub morons who actually think obama is going to raise their taxes- get educated trolls:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/graphing-taxes.html

I love the person who thinks Obama is going to win Illinois, they drank some excellent kool-aid. Look at the primaries Obama OVERPERFORMED in EVERY state that borders Illinois.

Illinois is not close

Iowa isn't close based on a single poll. They had their second largest city destroyed by a flood and the Republican Administration dropped the ball. Obama has won Iowa.

@mccainandpalinareliars:

I just want to personally thank you for adding comic relief to this forum. It is far to easy for us to get too serious about all this.

Bt brilliantly pretending to be a classic moonbat, you have reminded us to laugh. here's to you mccainandpalinareliars, master of irony.

ROFLMAO!

P.S., This battle of wits would be more fun for me if you made me try harder before utterly flaying you in public.

Mccain gets interrupted -

WARNING! This is HARSH!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TiQCJXpbKg&eurl=http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/week38/index.html

That's right, boomshak. You tell them.

@mccainandpalinareliars:

Every single person who loses their job because their small business owner employer can no longer afford to pay them due to Obama's 56% tax increase is experiencing a DEFACTO 100% TAX INCREASE.

Oh yeah, reality blows.

boomshat - are you a chimp - or just mildly retarded?

What "flaying"?

You are so utterly pathetic that everyone is laughing at you and you are too stupid to even comprehend that. You pathetic republicans are HATED around the world and here too. Your idiotic policies ruined the economy, the environment and international relations.

Your pathetic party's record speaks for itself, you effing moron. There is absolutely NOTHING you can say to negate that. Only an imbecile would even try.

Right again, boomshak.

As a small business owner over the last eight years I'm not worried about the tax increase and neither are most of the other small business owners in this town. I don't make 250K, I'm more concerned about health care and being able to retain valued employees, which I can't because they leave for larger companys that offer those benefits.

boomshat - you obviously took the short bus to school since you can't even read a basic tax plan. Are you really THAT retarded? Maybe if you stop listening to the lies from fox news, you might actually learn something. If you are LITERATE, try reading the plan again. dimwit.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/graphing-taxes.html

I thought it had been established that state polls lag behind national polls. Obama's national polls fell in mid August, but not his state polls until late August. This week's disastrous economic news has badly damaged McCain in the national polls. But that should not affect the state polls right now, but people expect him to fall in them by next week. So how come boomshak is constantly screaming that the whole midwest including Illinois is about to turn yellow and red? Constantly screaming in capital letters, like a psychotic flying into a hysteric rage. And what's with the "you gonna take that?", joecooper? You think your some gangsta in a gangfight?

they think they are in west side story.....

Are you gonna let them talk to us like that, boom? Get 'em!

You guys better hope no one is watching Sarah Palin on Hannity tonight. She is completely in the zone and very solid.

I mean the woman literally glows.

joecooper:

Uh, pal, why are you acting like a B-movie lackey? Seriously, it's very strange behavior. I hope you don't think you're being witty.

boomshak:

"You guys better hope no one is watching Sarah Palin on Hannity tonight."

If last night is any indicator, Hannity was #1 and received 5 times the views as MSNBC.

BTW - Much better media night for McCain. A lot of talk about the NY Times poll. Obama lags significantly behind McCain on the Ready to Lead question 48% to 71%.

The 48% readiness number mirrors his overall support total. Obama has not convinced voters he is ready. Obama faces a 48% ceiling.

Newsflash retards! Hannity is a joke. No one except morons like you clowns watch him - mostly because faux news is not a reputable news organization. But that doesn't stop repubs from doing a circle jerk when o'reilly and hannity come on.

The only time sane people see hannity is when jon stewart or colbert rip him a new one on comedy central.

Yeah, you guys better hope no one is watching Hannity. Right, boomshak?

"I mean the woman literally glows."

Hmmm, maybe she is pregnant again! ROTFLMAO!!

TOO FUNNY!!

Thanks Boomshat!!

ROTFLMAO@ boomshat!!

@ Inkan

You must be new to pollster. Boomshak is a delusional character that tries to spin every poll he can find to support the Palin/McSame ticket.

This week has gotten particularly interesting because, as any sane person can see, it takes a pretty wild and creative mind at the moment to conjure up any kind of case for Palin/McCain doing well.

Boomshak's credibility is like McCains numbers...gradually yet very consistently dwindling. By next week, I expect most of the reasonable visitors here will simply skip his comments.

Don't let them talk to you like that, boomshak. Tell 'em how she glows! You hear that, you libs? SHE GLOWS!

That would be hilarious if Palin WAS pregnant again! Wait a minute, she did cancel a recent fundraising trip through Cali. And now the all-knowing boomshat has said she is "glowing" - and she would know!

Hmmm, maybe she will have another retarded baby and evangelicals will orgasm on how stupid, I mean principled, she is. And then she can parade around two retarded babies at rallies!! Yes, that would be AWESOME!!!

Drill baby Drill! Drill baby drill!

Here’s a great series of quotes:

"She doesn't have any foreign policy credentials," "You get a passport for the first time in your life last year? I mean, I don't know what you can say. You can't say anything."

"I think it's a stretch to, in any way, to say that she's got the experience to be president of the United States,"

"I think they ought to be just honest about it and stop the nonsense about, 'I look out my window and I see Russia and so therefore I know something about Russia,'" he said. "That kind of thing is insulting to the American people."

All of these are from respected foreign policy expert, Republican Senator Chuck Hagel.

Ouch! That’s got to hurt.

SHE GLOWS!

Napoleon - yup. And don't think for a minute Obama won't use that clip in ads around Omaha. It is a cheap market and he might be able to get that 1 EV from eastern NE for just a lil bit of $.

So she "glows"!

Maybe she can be a night-light - she is about as smart as one.

@Napolean Complex:

"All of these are from respected foreign policy expert, Republican Senator Chuck Hagel."

Ok, dude, I just have to try to save you some personal embarassment here.

Chuck Hagel is probably THE MOST DESPISED REPUBLICAN BY THE RIGHT in the history of earth! He is only exceeded in his RINOISM by Olympia Snowe.

I mean, we HATE Chuck Hagel on the right. Don't even bother quoting him regarding Sarah Palin.

Yeah, napolean, because only people who toss Palin's salad can comment on Palin.

bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

"In what respect, Charlie?"

ROTFLMAO!!

@boomshak:

Sorry that the truth hurts, buddy. He's respected far and wide and his opinion carries a lot of weight with everyone outside of your little world.

On Hannity and Colmes, Colmes just says "Sarah Palin is obvious bright, engaging, intelligent and articulate..."

"Ok, dude, I just have to try to save you some personal embarassment here."

Yeah, we HATE Chuck Hagel. Let's save them some personal embarrassment, right, boomshak? (Hey, by the way, boom, two r's in "embarrassment," but it's cool, I got your back.)

SHE GLOWS!

LOL - this moron is still quoting faux news!! Too funny! ROTFLMAO!!

Too bad she's on FOX. She's only gonna be seen by those who were gonna vote for here anyway. That network was rated last by PEW for fair and balanced news, next to MSN I believe, lol. The only ppl that I know that watch that network are conservatives and almost no minortys do. Its perseved as quite racist.

bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

Yeah, Grandpa/Nightlight '08!!

CNN's final verdict was that Obama AND Biden are voting "present" on the current crisis. That is why voters don't trust Obama. He can't vote "present" in the white house.

Liberals always loose because they don't listen to real Americans. Fox doesn't get 5 times the viewers than MSNBC for nothing.

(Just one "o" in "lose," marctx, but I think we all know what you mean.) Yep. That is why liberals always lose. Right, boomshak?

Wow, more bogus BS from marctx! Why am I not surprised?

MSNBC is a cable channel that few people get. Fox is free - since no one in their right mind would pay for it. Anyways, it is like comparing CBS to CSPAN. I wonder which gets higher ratings?

All the bush supporters (you know the holdout (mentally challenged) 30%) watch fox. There is your viewership. Eat it.

bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran

@marctx

I would think FOX gets that many viewers because its the only conservative based news station out there, compaired to the numerous tilt left news stations.

"In what respect, Charlie?"

Add up the top five Foxnews shows and compare it to the MSNBC numbers that you liberals watch.

last nights ratings.

FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 4,921,000
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 3,839,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 3,561,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 2,184,000
FOXNEWS HUME 2,108,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,854,000
CNN COOPER 1,719,000
MSNBC RACHEL MADDOW 1,716,000
CNN KING 1,646,000
MSNBC HARBALL 1,145,000

Ooops!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/18/republican-congressman-endorses-obama/

Just to be fair. I am a democrat and I watch MSNBC's Hardball and Race for the Whitehouse every night. But I am not a liberal. Obama will loose us conservative democrats.

@kerrchdavis:

Actually, I think today it's:

bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb the Spaniards.

Despite what his staff tried to spin, he really looked pathetic confusing Latin America with Spain.

That's right, marctx! This man backs up his arguments with some hard numbers! Take that, you libs! Fox rules! She glows!

Friend: "So, what will you do now that you're home, John"

McCain: "Leave my wife."

Friend: "But...why?"

McCain: "Have you seen her, dude? She's a mess! All crippled and everything!"

Friend: "But, she took care of your kids while you were gone...doesn't that mean something."

McCain: "Ya! It means she's still good for SOMETHING."

Friend: "Well, what will you do now?"

McCain: "I think I'll go marry that broad I've been cheating on my wife with. She's got money, you know? And the fundamentals of her good looks are strong."

Friend: "Oh, wow...um..."

McCain: "Got to go. C*nt is waiting for me. See ya later."

But kerch, hannity on faux news said mccain is allowed to cheat since he was in a pow camp.

and hannity is god....or something.

Mccain gets interrupted -

WARNING! This is HARSH!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TiQCJXpbKg&eurl=http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/week38/index.html

@marctx

again not a reasonable sample. You have to account for many factors that you haven't. 1st it would have to be a larger sample not one day. Your numbers might be skewed by events like having Palin on your network that night. 2 it would have to be a total count for a specfic time period. like adding evenyone who watching from 9-10 on all the conservative channels compaired to everyone who's watching during the same time on liberal chanels.

My guess is it would be similar if measured over a large sample to the rep. dem. breakdown
5-8% liberal advantage.

@ evolve

He's not really interested in backing up poor arguments.

@marctx

Fail.

"Obama will loose us conservative democrats." Marctx, my man, again, just one "o" in "lose." But it's cool, man...I got you covered...you made your point...those libs heard you.

So if I can see Russia on google maps, does that make me at least comparable to Palin in foreign policy experience?

Or do I need to read a book about "Energy" too?

If I wanted to get a text book that teaches the difference between a shia and sunni muslim AND clearly shows that Mexico and Spain are two different countries, where would I go?

Or would I just be better off senile?

Wow. Just watched a little of Palin's interview. I didn't watch last night.

Anyone notice that Palin is fast to respond in clear decisive statements unlike Stuttering Obama in the Saddleback interview.

boomshat babbled...
"Ok, dude, I just have to try to save you some personal embarassment here.

Chuck Hagel is probably THE MOST DESPISED REPUBLICAN BY THE RIGHT in the history of earth!"

boomshat?

You aren't spinning your opinion a bit?

I suppose, then, you consider the American Conservative Union to be a wildly liberal organization? They've given Hagel an 85.2% LIFETIME conservative rating. He earned a 95% rating in 2005.

I suppose, then, you consider Robert Novak to be a wildly liberal commentator? In a column from April 30, 2007, he stated, "Sen. Chuck Hagel returned from his fifth visit to Iraq to become one of two Republicans to join Senate Democrats in voting Thursday to begin withdrawal of U.S. troops. It was not an easy vote for a conservative GOP regular and faithful supporter of President George W. Bush's other policies."

I suppose, then, you consider Charlie Black a wild liberal? On March 9, 2007, the Washington Times (a paper you consider wildly liberal???) printed the following, "Hagel has a strong conservative record and great campaign skills, and if he could raise money, he could be a serious competitor," said Charles Black, who has advised every Republican presidential campaign in the past 31 years."

I suppose, then, you consider the National Journal a wildly liberal rag? PoliGazette had this to say: "The National Journal ratings show that Hagel is more conservative than John McCain and Sam Brownback."

Yeah, that Chuck Hagel "is probably THE MOST DESPISED REPUBLICAN BY THE RIGHT in the history of earth!"

Spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin, spin.

And then spin again, but the truth hurts, doesn't it?

Final judgment on the Palin interview was "Authentic".

If I only had one word to describe the candidates it would be:

McCain "Hero"
Palin "Authentic"
Obama "Politician"
Biden "Who?"

On McCain not knowing that the President of Spain is not President of a country in Latin America, specifically Mexico:

Imagine a sign at a campaign stop, displaying a map with an arrow pointing to Mexico with a caption "This is Mexico", an arrow pointing to Spain with a caption "This is Spain", and another arrow pointing to an egg being fried with a caption "This is John S. McCain's brain".

I wonder what boomshat, marktx, and the other lunatic fringe would say here?

I used to think Obama was not patriotic, but know that I learn that Obama thinks raising taxes is patriotic...well he must be very patriotic because he's all about raising taxes.

Bidin is patriotic too, he contributed $120 in 1999 to charity.

That's right, marctx. (Spelled "Biden" by the way, with an "e," but don't worry about it.) But yes, you're right, nothing patriotic about raising taxes. You tell them.

Obama not ready to lead, but definitely ready to spellcheck.

No wonder real Americans hate you liberals.

Hey, I'm on your side, marctx! We're the real Americans! I'm a real American, like you! I hate liberals because they're not real Americans! Real Americans aren't liberals...we've known that for a long time!

I only respond to you joecooper: because you amuse me. You're mocking is very clever. Seriously, you're annoying me so you're doing a good job!

Boomshak,
"Chuck Hagel is probably THE MOST DESPISED REPUBLICAN BY THE RIGHT in the history of earth! He is only exceeded in his RINOISM by Olympia Snowe."

Oh come on Boom, Jim Jeffords!!?? He flipped the senate, what has Hagel done to compare with that?

Jeez, guys. It's obvious to me who the more intelligent people here are. Can't some of you grow up and debate politics like adults? In every other country I've ever been to people discuss politics like adults, even if they hate each others guts. Shoot, even in Ireland people are civil to one another about their political differences (at least, most of the time).

We're like children here, and it's no wonder the rest of the world looks down on us. And you know what? They should. I'm pretty ****ing patriotic but man, what the hell is wrong with some of you?

@mattisnotfrench
Well put! This is a site for poll-watching and trying to decide what the polls are saying about the race for the White House. This is not a site for cheap, low, puerile remarks about either candidate. Doesn't anyone report these abusers?

Hagel=Liebermann