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Rasmussen: KY, MT, NE, NM, NC (9/30 - 10/1)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen Reports
Mode: IVR

Kentucky 9/30, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 42
Sen: McConnell (R-i) 51, Lunsford (D) 42

Montana 10/1,500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 44
Gov: Schweitzer (D-i) 56, Brown (R) 41

Nebraska 9/30, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 56, Obama 37
Sen: Johanns (R-i) 52, Kleeb (D) 38

New Mexico 10/1, 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 49, McCain 44
Sen: Udall (D) 55, Pearce (R) 41

North Carolina 9/30, 700 LV, 4%
Obama 50, McCain 47
Gov: McCrory (R) 50, Perdue (D) 46, Munger (L) 2

 

Comments
Sarah McPlain:

NC and NM turning blue is making McCain's face turn red!! YEEARRGGHH!!!

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Commander_King:

See ya later McStunt

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Tyler:

Great news on NC - confirming that the previous polls showing Obama leading were not flukes.

The rest is pretty much in line with expectations.

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Paul:

RE: New Mexico and North Carolina

Bush (Excellent-Poor): NM -47, NC -38

Favorables (F-U)
NM Obama +4, NC Obama +5
NM McCain -3, NC McCain +4
NM Biden +2, NC Biden even
NM Palin -11, NC Palin +1

Conclusion: Obama strength greater in New Mexico.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Ron Paul will be on the ballot in Montana, yet no pollster seems to care.

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IndependentThinker:

--------
Read this

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
To explain its decision to pull back from Michigan, a source close to the McCain campaign emails First Read, "We played in Michigan to spread the field on Obama. As you know, Obama has already abandoned a number of states from his 50-state strategy."

The official continues, "If we win FL, MO, NC, VA, IN and OH -- all states Republicans have won for decades -- that puts us at 260 electoral votes. We need to find 10 electoral votes from CO, NV, NM, NH, MN, WI, and PA. Frankly, we have an easier map than Obama. He’s on the defense."

But that's MUCH easier said that done. Recent polls show McCain to be either trailing or essentially tied in all of these states.
________
CONCLUSION : Actually there's any it's just funny

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lilyogini:

IndependentThinker, that is "spin" at it's finest.

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Tyler:

@IndependentThinker

And that right there is one more reason why McCain is losing - "If Republicans won states X, Y, and Z in the past, we can assume we'll win them too and basically ingore them for months!"

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faithhopelove:

Right-leaning Rasmussen finds McCain up 8 points in MT, showing slight movement toward Obama since his last MT poll (-1 McCain, +2 Obama).

To my knowledge, Obama has not yet shuttered his operations in MT. Rasmussen's likely voter screen is likely McCain-favorable, perhaps inflating McCain's # 1-2 points and deflating Obama's # 1-2 points. Also, the cell phone issue may be especially big in MT, which has the largest percentage of cell phone only users of any state. See:
/blogs/cell_phone_only_households_by.html

Also, Rasmussen did not name 3rd-party candidates in his horserace question--despite the fact that Ron Paul is on the ballot there. Paul beat McCain in MT's Republican primary.

Factor in all of these considerations, and it's possible that McCain has only a slight lead in MT. Still, Obama may be better served to redirect his resources from MT to CO--a bigger prize for which he has a better chance.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Factor in all of these considerations, and it's possible that McCain has only a slight lead in MT. Still, Obama may be better served to redirect his resources from MT to CO--a bigger prize for which he has a better chance."

I agree that it would be wiser to focus on Colorado, but it would be funnier if he could win Montana.

On a side note, I like having a conversation without the trolls.

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faithhopelove:

Right-leaning Rasmussen shows Obama ahead by 5 points in NM--which means Obama leads there by at least that much. The poll's internals show that Obama's support is stronger than McCain's in NM. Obama's "very favorable" # is 12 points greater than McCain's, and Obama's net favorability is +6. McCain's net favorability is -4. With these numbers, it is surprising that Rasmussen does not show Obama up more in NM.

SUSA's new NM poll has Obama up 8 points in NM. Both SUSA and Rasmussen show McCain stuck at 44% there. Neither poll included the names of 3rd-party candidates, all of whom are on the ballot there. NM appears headed to a 50% Obama, 45% McCain, and 5% others result.

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faithhopelove:

7 consecutive and 10 of the last 11 NM polls have shown Obama up there.

With McCain conceding MI today, which state(s) will be next? I'm guessing IA, NM, PA, and WI. Ultimately, McCain may simply try to hold the Bush states (other than IA and NM) and to flip NH (which would allow him to survive losing NV).

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C.S.Strowbridge:

I think he'll stay in PA till the very end. Letting that one go would give Obama too big of an edge.

However, he should have dropped Iowa already.

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1magine:

Obama Leads McCain by 12 Points in New Hampshire, According to Saint Anselm College Poll

http://www.anselm.edu/nhiop/news+and+events/news/2008-10-02-nhiop-poll.htm

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1magine:

So if Sydney's hair becomes straight black and his eye color turns green and he becomes asian, he could easily pose in a Catholic School Girl magazine - if he just become a young girl and someone gives me a uniform. Ok then - you go right out there and pursue your dream Sydney.

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cinnamonape:

What I find humorous is that McCain pulls his resources out of Michigan because he's given up there...thus freeing Obama to shift his resources to Indiana and Ohio.

Plus Obama can take his resources from New Mexico and move north to Colorado, or perhaps even Texas!!!
Lot's of very pissed off people there who STILL haven't received the promised Federal help that was asserted after Hurricane Rita. After Ivan the wounds were re-opened. Texans no longer trust the Republicans.

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Mark in LA:

Hello! This is my first comment at Pollster.com. I am happy to be here, but I am watching Palin on the debate, and I am under the restriction that I should "Post an intelligent and civil comment." Thus, I am left speachless.

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AlanSnipes:

I'm watching the debate and having trouble believing what I am seeing.

"Golly gee willikers beav"

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vmval1:

Palin has won this. Hands Down. I don't care what the spin and pundits are going to say, she has won this. The 'drooling mess perception' has been BLOWN away.

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MNLatteLiberal:

She did better than I thought, that is to say, the talking points machine gone haywire had not kicked in until the second hour. She ignored too many questions. But Biden won the debate when he got emotional.

Also, she very seldom moved the undecided meter on CNN. With Biden's every response, just about, it topped out.

I think we will see no game changer here.

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AJ:

@mn
I must disagree, I thought she did very poor, and clearly showed that she is out of her league. While polls will not show it immediatelly, I thing this cemented Obama's lead.

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NW Patrick:

BLOWN AWAY? ROFL
I thought it was intelligence VS CUE CARDS. How many BUNTS did she take? ROFL

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NW Patrick:

Look down to the cue cards. Look down:) What was I supposed to say? OH yah!

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BOOMFAIL:

hey boomy- if Intrade still shows 35 point lead for Obama, does this mean Palin won the debate???

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MNLatteLiberal:

AJ: I fervently hope you are right. Her Bush-like nukular and ducking the questions made the CNN undecideds meter dip. But she was much better spoken than during any of her interviews. She was well coached and some of the cramming stuck. The zinger fell flat. "there you go again, joe."

I could almost hear Biden thinking "I knew Reagan, Reagan was a friend of mine, and you, governor are no Ronald Reagan".

Uneven, granted, but better than I was hoping for. She did not give me a gem. I got spoiled by her daily gems.

But I am open for convincing.

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AJ:

Also, I'm not sure about what our position is on this...but I'll talk to you about energy!

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Evolve:

I think like the last debate those who already lean right or left will think there candidate won. I thought she did fine she showed she was a articulate intelligent individual, as did Biden. I do think it was close tho I thought Biden was a tab more informative, but he should of been with his experience. The internal polling CNN did seemed to lean that way also.

But this was pretty close.

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AJ:

@mn
You know, i was watching it with my wife who is very apolitical and she actually laughed at Palin for her 'ducking' and making up her own questions.

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AJ:

Isn't amazing that just the fact that she did not make a bumbling fool out of her self is a victory! For the VP of the USA!!!

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Mike In Maryland:

Palin held serve (to some extent) TONIGHT by not doing a 'Couric interview-type' meltdown of not knowing how to answer a simple question ("What newspaper do you read, Sarah?").

The question from tonight is, "How will she do in the next interview?"

If she does another 'Couric' in her next interview (and I suspect that she will), it will just show that she was well-rehearsed TONIGHT, but it will show that she does not have the insight to handle a simple interview, let alone be able to give advice that matters to the President.

The question will now be "When will she do a Sunday Morning News interview?" If she was able to handle TONIGHT, she should be able to handle a Sunday morning interview, shouldn't she?

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MNLatteLiberal:

AJ, LOL. My "hockey mom" wife is very, very political. In fact, she is organizing Mamas for Obama rally here in MN CD6 a week from Sat. And she was yelling at the TV whenever Sarah ducked.

But the point, ultimately was that the undecideds still moved with Biden, meaning that the Obama/Biden camp did much better work figuring out what the undecideds needed to hear.
Biden was great and he really moved that meter.

Perhaps the McCain camp was too busy cramming the basic facts and positions into Sarah and the appeal to the undecideds was too nuanced...

Finally, neither I nor my wife can believe there wasn't a single question on education. Biden had to splice that in.

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Tyler:

Palin succeeded in that she did not throw up, cry, fall over or claim that she was Santa Claus. By any substantive measure, Biden wiped the floor with her. Let's hope the American people are smart enough to realize that she avoided every single question to go back to her rehearsed script.

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marctx:

How is the liberal media gonna spin almost 100% of the focus groups said Gov. Palin won the debate?

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NW Patrick:

She did better than I expected...HOWEVER this will be a NON GAME CHANGER. Biden wins... also WINS BIG on substance, not cue cards.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@Mike in MD,
Great point.
Also, say, let's call her at 3 AM.

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Viperlord:

Palin didn't make a total fool of herself, but was overall outperformed on every issue, especially with the ducking, BSing, and stating the obvious. (I was getting lots of laughs by drawling "Yaaaa Think?"

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AJ:

What focus groups are you talking about? I am watching CNN and it was 5 to 1 for Biden.

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reverendmatt:

I agree with Viperlord and several others, Palin was not an embarassment but judged by the standard of Biden versus any male opponent it was a clear Democrat victory, overall I think Palin will go back to playing the state fairs and McCain will have to shore things up in the next debate.

Overall this is good for Obama, no change in momentum

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mirrorball:

Well, first off there was nothing here tonight that is really going to change much in terms of Obama's momentum.

That said, I thought Palin overall did a decent job. Though she avoided some questions. A little surprised the panel of undecideds on CNN didn't respond more positively to her folksy talk.

Biden did alight. I thought he nailed some of the Iraq questions, particularly that little rant he went on saying McCain has not shown a plan different than Bush on Iraq or Afghanistan.

I guess I'd give Biden a slight victory. But not by much.

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MNLatteLiberal:

76/22 for Biden on CNN, marctx.
Also, were you watching the undecideds meter?
Where are you getting your numbers?

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mirrorball:

um yeah marctx, which focus groups were you watching? The CNN group in no uncertain terms said Biden won the debate. But at the same time, it swayed only a couple of them. And nearly all of them said they expect Obama to win.

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Bigmike:

Biden won? Did you guys watch the same debate I did? Is there something in your latte affecting your judgement?

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MNLatteLiberal:

Bigmike, whatever it is in our latte, it must be in over 25,000 cups all over the country. Nice try. You don't get the big stuffed elephant, but you do get another spin.

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Timdicator:

Another presidential debate draw.

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Bigmike:

Forget the cotton picking media, mainstream or otherwise. I don't care what they are saying. Everyone expected her to be an embarrasment. She was just the opposite. I would be fine if she ended up Pres on day one. Not that I wish anything bad on Mc, but the girl was on her game tonight.

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AJ:

After all of the recent critism, msm can not laugh at her, therefore will be stating that debate was close, she did a good enough job, she didn't embarass herself... But in reality, I have a very hard time seing any real person out there actually changing their vote to McCain ticket b/c Sarah winked, or sounded like a Joe Sixpack from the corner. And if say that they do, I seriously doubt that they were ever going to vote for Obama anyway.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

McCain / Palin needed tonight's debate to be a game changer. Everything I saw and read suggests it wasn't.

Poll numbers will stabilize, but that's bad news for McCain.

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[nemesis]:

Sorry, but all Palin succeeded in doing was not looking quite as stupid as in her interviews. She was repeatedly slapped by Biden, who caught her in numerous lies, and wouldn't stand for more of the same Republican tactics. She lost badly, but not nearly as bad as some expected. By no means a win for Palin.

And how sad is it when an entire political party thinks that their candidate has one if she doesn't dribble on herself. Since when is "must have IQ > 70" the single requirement for the VP position. We're not talking about part-time burger-flipper here!

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AJ:

@ big mike
You'd be fine if she was a president on a day one!!!!! Are you kidding me! What if she called general McLeallan to check on Afghanistan...or who is going to write her q cards if McCain is gone. Common man, you can't be serious...

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zotz:

The VP Debate

Neither one committed a major gaffe that I could tell. There were no major zingers that I could discern. Of course I thought Biden won but both of them were stumbling and nervous in the first half. Palin stuck to her talking points. Several times she appeared to be reading her answers. Biden did that too but not so obviously. In the second half Biden came on much stronger and spoke better.

Palin's folksiness was endearing to some but on serious issues she was definitely out of her league compared to Biden. Biden even did the Hillary thing when he choked up when he was talking about his family.

I have no idea how undecideds will see this but I know the Reps have to be relieved after the rough week Palin has had.

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NW Patrick:

I was watching with 10 friends, all kept commenting on her concentrating on que cards. She def kept to the talking points.

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[nemesis]:

correction, meant "has WON", not "has one"

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AJ:

I mean, if she wasn't embarassing then she could be a president? Awesome.

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NW Patrick:

McCain needed a GAME CHANGER Tonight. It was knowledge vs que cards and talking points. YAWN.

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NW Patrick:

What did Palin mean by EXTRA powers as VP?

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Bigmike:

I won't claim this changes many votes, if any.

But Palin has nothing to be embarrased about. And I am not kidding about being OK if she ends up in the WH.

I don't like the typical politician. Give me someone who talks straight. Enough of the Ivy leaguers already.

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kerrchdavis:

I thought Palin exceeded expectations, no doubt about it. Biden, however, was brilliant.

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NW Patrick:

Uh oh McCain. Just released!
Judge throws out attempt to stop Trooper Gate probe.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26995799/

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reverendmatt:

I guess that setting the bar presidential at embarassing sets the level above bush, maybe she has saved her own career ass, in 4 years maybe she can make a run at president.

She had a couple of deer in the headlight moments early but pulled it together and did okay.

Best job on Cnn 51 % Biden, 36%Palin

84% said Palin did better than expected but 0nly 4 % more said she she was qualified for the presidency


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Uri:

I personally wish Biden was running instead of Obama. I preferred both him and HRC in the primaries.

I have to say though that I was EXTREMELY disappointed with his response to the gay marriage question. He is a true liberal, so is Obama. Maybe if they both had the balls to actually run on real change by supporting things like that, I would be willing to tolerate their ticket. If he's giving the same answer as Palin, why should I support him? At least she stuck with what she believes in.

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Bigmike:

NW Patrick

Does the timing look a little funny to you? It is called cover. They are trying to cover the fact that the avg joe is gonna think Palin wiped the floor with Biden.

Libs are gonna love Biden. Cons are gonna love Palin. By early next week we will know if this changes anything. VP debates usually don't.

But our girl kicked Biden butt.

We shall see....

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AJ:

I get it that if you have your mind set to vote republican, you really have no choice but to vote for a ticket that Palin is on, but after this debate and last week worth of interviews, do you really feel that she was the best option? Better than Romney?

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mirrorball:

CNN post-debate poll MOE 4pc

Who did the best job in the debate?
Biden 51%
Palin 36%

They didn't say yet whether there were more Republicans or Democrats who watched. Just that it was a poll of people who watched the debate.

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saywhat90:

just looke at cnn flash poll.biden 51 to 39 on who did a better job on the debate

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zotz:

I just heard the CBS instant poll of undecideds had Biden winning the debate.

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illinoisindie:

palin did phenomenal by Palin standards.
Game Paln...Attack,dont answer any questions and when in doubt every question is about energy...

For Commander in Chief test: Fail
Someone you would want to have a beer with: Pass (hey Bush got through on this one)
Incredulous proposal of expanding the powers of the VP: Extra Special Fail
Substance in discussion: Fail
Rallying the right: Pass

Neither candidate changes the game.... (caveat depends on if Biden's "sob" moment gets any play).

Overall win for Obama since Undecideds give the debate to Biden.. not because he won but because McCain needs a game changer and this debate was not it... On to Tuesday

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saywhat90:

oh it was 51-36 my bag

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MNLatteLiberal:

Uri,
they need to do that to appeal to the mainstream. and something tells me that Obama's and Biden's position on civil unions is a bit different from McCain and esp. Palin. That part Sarah ducked and the moderator did not press her. I would have.

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montana59801:

Obama is underpolled in Montana. He will win the Missoula, Butte, Helena and Bozeman areas by very wide margins. All he really has to do is not get blown out in the Billings and Great Falls Area. Obama will also perform well in the Hi-Line because of Amtrak.

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BOOMFAIL:

Even Fixednews.com has Biden winning!

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[nemesis]:

How can the repubs be spinning this as a win... even the FOX poll shows Biden winning the debate 56% to 44%. That's FOX News. With 45000 votes... Kinda seems more like a massive Palin loss instead of a win.

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NW Patrick:

It reminded me alot of the 1st presidential debate. She didn't fall on her face, she stuck to the lines, and then the guy not looking at Que cards but articulate and brilliant.
YAWN. Onto Tuesday!

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NW Patrick:

MSNBC 256,000 or so polled so far..Biden up 13. I know these aren't SCIENTIFIC but it's telling. She read from cards. Anyone else find it interesting she looked down so much?

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saywhat90:

i say she did well enough to make the conservative base happy but i think that would have happened anyway. but she did not by no means beat biden. not by a long shot. it wasnt a bad debate for here but it wasnt a good on neither

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mirrorball:

I think I'm gonna agree with what seems to be the consensus with the CNN commentators, that Palin helped ease any concerns Republicans may have had with her. She's on better footing now. But nothing in the debate really changed things.

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As you can see after watching the debate Sarah Palin has no plan for the economy, and no plan to end this war in Iraq. She did not give one specific detail about the economy or the war in Iraq. McCain and Palin are all frosting and no cake. McCain and Palin are all about phony imagery with no substance. I don't trust McCain and Palin. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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javakah:

Palin did rather well, despite some non-answer answers.

I think Biden won, however in the next couple of days there will be a very slight shift for McCain (+1-2%).

The reason for this is that she was not destroyed. Based upon her previous interviews, her competency was highly in question, and as a result of that, John McCain's judgment was also in question (which in addition to economic woes, and a general anti-Bush sentiment led to a huge surge in Obama's numbers). Although she lost the debate, she did moderately well, without any terribly huge gaffes. This will I think help staunch the flow of people who had originally been going to vote for McCain switching to Obama.

That said, I expect it will be momentary, and that external factors (the economy, damaging info from troopergate, or other such 'surprises') will quickly return as larger factors.

Although Palin did well enough to probably help stabilize the poll numbers and perhaps push them ever so slightly back in McCain's direction, she did not overwhelmingly win. As a result of this, although the poll numbers may move a point or two in McCain's direction, Obama will continue to enjoy a sizable lead that will only be erased by a massively external event (major scandal for Obama or Biden, or capturing Osama).

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Bigmike:

javakah

I have to agree with most of what you said. In the last couple of weeks, before tonight, she was becoming a detriment. Couric, SNL, etc. She brushed that aside.

Bottom line. If she bombed it was game over. She didn't. Mc is still in the game, and has an outside chance of gaining ground in the next few days.

Now, where he takes it from there is up to him.

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reverendmatt:

I agree that even though Biden won the debate I think that Palin changing the discussion from her being a complete moron to begin a semi-qualified neophyte will probably give mccain a minor bounce (0.5-1.5%) over the next couple of days

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thoughtful:

Does this debate make a difference?

No

If McCain were to die tomorrow is she a credible candidate for the presidency?

No

Is McCain going to be able to come back from being over 5% down in the National Polls?

No

Are there any Happy Mornings left in this Campaign for John McCain?

No

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NW Patrick:

So the VP didn't self destruct and read from que cards. How many times did she look down while Biden had a COMMAND of the issues? Sad country we are. Let's go have a beer with BUSH and Palin!

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Gary Kilbride:

Palin was well below my expectation. I watched her Alaska 2006 debates after I wagered on her to win that race via Intrade. In those debates she was personable throughout and never felt pressured to recite canned themes. I expected that tonight but the GOP handlers were so inept they essentially crippled her for huge stretches of the debate, primarily in the middle, when she obviously scrambled for her talking points and often flubbed the placement and emphasis.

Biden was superb. The other three candidates, including Obama and McCain, were clearly prepped for their debate and sometimes looked awkward, but Biden was incredibly relaxed and speaking from a base of knowledge and thought. It looked like you could have yanked him off a beach in Hawaii after a month's vacation and he could have headed smack to Washington University and given exactly the same responses.

BTW, Wash U is my sister's alma mater. I enjoyed some of the familiar scenery the last few days, including the plaza outside the main auditorium, where I got plastered. :)

Otherwise, I played more on McCain to win North Carolina. If I can invest at 60 I can press it up at 50. Once the gas shortage stabilizes in a couple of weeks and McCain places some emphasis ($) on the state, I think it comes around to it's typical presidential preference, albeit obviously much closer than typical.

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saywhat90:

this wasnt a game changer debate. palin didnt knock it out of the park. besides her expectations were so low she had no choice but to do well. i dont think she answered any question asked her. she didnt really express her knowledge of mccains policies. but she didnt fall on her face neither. no real change in thepolls. and a 1 or 2 point shift in the polls still doesnt cut it. mccain is the only one who can win this. not palin. he hasnt done the job.

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voteforamerica:

VP Debate: Live Analysis

Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.

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Guy Fawkes:

I realized something watching McCain boil over in the Des Moines Register session.

He is angry, but not because people are questioning him or criticizing him. It's because he is realizing that he is losing this election because he was once more honest than Bush, and that sets him up for failure where Bush had won with sleaze tactics. The MSM is crucifying him for the sins that Bush/Cheney/Rove committed far more in '00 and '04. Consider the Swift Boat ads of '04 (done by a 527, but with Rove's fingerprints all over them.) Those were way worse than McCain's ads of 3-4 weeks ago. The MSM is finally rising up against McCain only because McCain once presented himself as a relatively honest straight-talker. If anyone had confronted Cheney the way the DesMoines Register people did, Cheney would have blown them off "Who cares what you think?" I.e., we don't pretend to tell the truth, we just win elections! Bush and Rove never cared about being attacked as liars, because honesty wasn't really what they were selling in the first place.

And now after having been slimed himself by the Rove machine (SC in '00), McCain figures it's finally his turn and hires Rove acolyte Schmidt to do the same thing for him. But now that it's blowing up in McCain's face, he is understandably furious that no good act goes unpunished, and his past record of honest straight-talk is the very thing that is causing the MSM to go for his throat.

Moral: if you want to win as a lying right-wing sleazeball, start out that way and stay that way. Having integrity will only come back and bite you if you ever try to use the low road later on.

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Dana Adini:

She was OK considering the expectations. She didn't answer a couple of questions that I guess she wasn't coached on like BK laws she answered with energy. Her biggest Gaffe was when Biden told the story about his first wife his personal tragedy and was emotional aboiut it...when it came back to her she attacked Obama without pausing.

I was imporessed by Biden he was totally in control..and had command of all the issues very firm and didn't back off. A couple of times he gave answers that didn't directly answer the question.

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Basil:

BigMike,

Sarah's good at saying the things she's practiced saying for the last 2 weeks, but consider the Couric interviews. This was 99% rehearsed, while the Couric questions were totally straightforward but required spontaneity. You could say that Couric was MSM mean to Palin, maybe, but I think not.

Not that Biden wasn't rehearsed, but he's shown elsewhere that he can think on his feet (which fly into his mouth once in a while).

Like Bush, there's a real question about who's writing the stuff she's saying. If she doesn't read, I'm guessing she doesn't write.

Remember how bad Dubya looked after uttering so many Bushisms. After seeing Couric, how long do you think it would it be before Palin amassed a mountain of bizarre and embarassing sound bites?

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laguna_b:

She is a bimbo...just like Quayle her virtual mentor....Alaska can afford his America can not.

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thoughtful:

Trackers will be closer to +8% Obama in the Morning than +7%.

Never a happy morning for John McCain.

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zotz:

New poll from Dredge
Palin 72%
Biden 26%

I guess it's all over for the Dems!

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NW Patrick:

I dont see the fox news poll on their website. DRUDGE is the ONLY poll I've seen with opinion that Palin won. SURPRISE..Drudge LOL

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Tyler:

Hey if the last week's worth of polling is any indication of how things go after the Drudge poll says the Republican won the debate in a landslide, I'll take it.

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BOOMFAIL:

Palin = FAILing

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Bigmike:

NW Patrick

In ref to the extra powers of the VP. The VP only votes in case of a tie and, under Senate rules, cannot participate in debate. However, the VP is President, or presiding officer, of the Senate. Historically, it usually meant lots of time for golf. I don't really know how far that can be pushed.

However, someone mentioned Cheney's comment on the VP powers. I am not finding much on line, except that his is usually the final word Dubya hears before making a decision.

Biden LOOKED like a tired old man next to her. Not saying that is anything of substance, but similar problems likely costs Nixon the election in 1960.

I keep coming back to her straight talk. Reminds me of Reagan, whom I was priveleged to vote for twice.

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Basil:

Guy

I was seeing something similar with McCain. The anger he was showing might ordinarily have been better managed, but he's so full of it that the usual politely hostile needling now triggers near-combative rage. He may be either a) just plain enraged at how badly things have been managed for him (as you suggest), or b) trying to work himself up into a theatrically righteous rage that he hopes will appeal to real Americans (in contrast to Obama's obnoxious coolness).

Whatever the source, it was a nasty little window into McCain's character, or at least into the way he can be when he's not getting much sleep. I'm sticking with my Ambien side effects hypothesis.

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zotz:

BigMike- Is this your idea of "staight talk?

"I may not answer the questions that either the moderator or you want to hear, but I'm going to talk straight to the American people."

So in other words she can answer or not answer any question she wants. So why have a moderator? STRAIGHT TALK? You gotta be jacking me!

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Bigmike:

"If it weren't so frightening, the irony would be delicious: A Vice President who has done more than any other to push the envelope on executive privilege at the expense of the courts and Congress takes the position that his office has both legislative and executive functions so as to avoid accounting for the use of classified materials."

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070709/huq

It is a blatantly partisan article, but the best I could find on POWERS of the VP. It does make some interesting points.

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Ryguy:

i had a feeling going into this debate that palin wouldnt implode. shes a moron, yes, but shes one whos able to speak generically enough to get out of most situations. the only time shes gotten caught like a deer in headlights was when someone asked her for specifics, seeing as nobody pressured her, she rarely was put in that situation tonight, and when she was... she wasnt able to answer the questions. she said mostly talking point, and biden seemed so much more relaxed and sincere than she did. end of the day, biden was clearly the better debater but because everyone was expecting palin to run off stage crying and she didnt, this didnt hurt the mccain ticket. probably wont change much

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illinoisindie:

... Palin is still not qualified for the office that she seeks and while she may have saved her political career tonight ... she did nothing to advance JM's cause with the independants...She did nothing to win them over with her very empty rhethoric and snarky remarks. Biden however delivered PA for Obama tonight, he's one of them...the boy on the block... With MI out of the way Mccain must now win FL VA and OH and he will lose one of them.

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Ryguy:

zots, isnt it such a ridiculous tactic she used, once again attempting to make the media look like the bad guy when she clearly doesnt know how to answer a question. if she was so opposed to the format, why did she show up to the debate in the first place? she didnt seem to have such a problem with it when they were throwing her soft ball questions that required a generic answer using words like "maverick" and "reform"...

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ronnie:

I thought both candidates performed well...However, I strongly believe (and the insta polls confirm this) that Biden was more sharper, detailed, and specific on every major issue...In fact, the polls suggest Biden performed better than Obama in the first presidential debate...I think that's a clear indicator the Obama/Biden ticket may have increased their momentum.

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saywhat90:

it is funny to me how you can say straight talk when she never asnwered one single and she fell back on energy policy when she couldnt give a good answer to a question.

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Pat:

Biden won ... but Gwen failed. I was disappointed. First, the questions were not probing enough. Second, she never followed up with Palin to get an answer to the questions that were asked. Palin was conducting her own memorized infomercial while unchallenged by the moderator.

I wonder if all the right-wing noise about her book got to her. She was obviously intimidated to passiveness.

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saywhat90:

you know i really have to wonder if most americans pretty much tuned out after about 15 minutes into the debate. epsecially in areas like pa,wi,illinois,and parts of florida. 3 of those are battleground states and three of them have teams in the playoffs.

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cinnamonape:

Lemme say this. If a Republican was as articulate, factual, and critically thinking. And the Democrat was spouting out "talking points" in a folksy "Mayberry" manner, obviously memorized, and had a wink-wink expression without having a grasp of the facts and nuances. And kepts saying he was a "mavrick" ad nauseum.

I'd probably vote for the Republican!

Clearly Biden WON the debate. He was 100% more Presidential than Palin...who dd NOT erase the doubts about her readiness. In fact her answer about Cheney's "Fourth Branch" position of the Vice-President as being valid is downright spooky. Palin could be given the reigns as an "energy czar" who claims unrestricted power.

BTW Palin has said she believes that the large oil and gas companies are "partners". So one could see the same sort of secret meetings that Cheney held with groups like Enron, Chevron, Exxon, etc. once again.

But in terms of not being a catastrophic disaster (which some expected) Palin kept McCain drawing cash from the RNC rather than putting cash into Congressional campaigns.

Sometimes by "winning" you lose.

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common sense:

I guess I get the last word. Barack Obama is going to be the next President of the United States. Im am Scotch-Irish - Obama is Scotch Irish. Who cares? God Bless America.

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saywhat90:

i dont think it will change anything electorally speaking or in the polls maybe a point but no more than that. one thing everyone here is forgetting is this is john mccains camapaign. the polls didnt go down because of palin. they went down because of mccain. it was mccains erractic performance that hurt him not sarah. so he not sarah must bring over the undecided. women didnt leave because of sarah it was because of mccain and his poor economy stance. it was his failed political stunts that got him in this mess. had he not been wishy-washy mccain would still have a lead

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common sense:

Why do people on the west coast stop posting? I have a guess they are solidly Obama. All the Gop has left is racism. Most Republicans are not racist. Obama will win in a landslide.

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KipTin:

Biden won in terms of knowledge and commanding performance. He beat Obama by a mile. Yes, Obama. After watching Biden debate, many began wondering if maybe the wrong guy is Presidential candidate.

Palin did very well for herself. She has a special charismatic personality that gets people's attention... and she stayed on message.

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common sense:

@ kip tin : you seem to be a reasonable guy. If McCain wins - I can live with it. He is a honorable man would be n a worthy President. Palin is not fit to be Vice.. She is an enbarassment to the GOP in my opinion. I am sure that you would disagree. She has the mental acuity of a pancake. Biden has at least the capacity of a waffle.
Obama is smarter tha McCain and has the charisma to energize the country. Please give me a rational explanation why you would vote for McCain ?

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Lechuguilla:

I deliberately avoided both debates. And I have no intention of watching the remaining two.

I must say that it's a dreadful indictment of America when all one has to do to win a VP debate is ... show up. Gee, even I could do that. Quality standards have been so lowered in the last ten years, that Americans seem to welcome mediocrity, even incompetence if it's accompanied by a folksy style.

And don't you just love Rove's spin about this entire election ... how it will not be about issues. Clearly, Rove and McCain expected, and even planned, that the campaign would instead focus on personalities. That way, they could spin their anti-Obama rhetoric. And Sarah could help out by being charming and folksy and talk about moose burgers.

The economy? Ah, there's no problem with the economy. Health care? Nah, we're all overjoyed by American's health care system. War in Iraq? Oh, let it continue for decades, we're all agreed that that is the patriotic thing to do.

Anyone care for a moose burger?

Lech

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Basil:

common sense

I'm on the west coast, and solidly Obama, but I'm not online all the time.

Palin's still far, far away from any semblance of competence. Anybody can do a Reagan impression if they use the debate format as a platform from which to read someone else's 3x5 cards filled with Reaganesque "straight talk" talking points. For her, that's an accomplishment (certainly in comparison to her Couric meltdown), but it's hardy worthy of a serious candidate.

Clearing a low bar is nice, but what will it get her?

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saywhat90:

i agree with lechuguilla. to me it is silly to say that a debate washes away anything that a candidate may have done wrong or right in an election. i wouldnt say that anyone is more presidential or more vice-presidential based on a debate.in fact i dont think a campaign really determines that neither. there is only one way to know how presidential a person will be. when he is president. none of the candidates can truly determine how good a president they will be because they have never had that job. senator and governor are wholly different entities than leading a country as the commande in chief.

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saywhat90:

can anyone tell me what wars mccain has won?

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Dan:

I think Tom Brokaw summed it up best, "The democrats are happy there is only one VP debate." This was the opposite of last Friday's debate in that Biden was the more knowledgeable, somewhat condescending, and looking down (though not as much as McCain), and Palin was more personable, confident, and talking straight to the people. Analysts felt Biden did better debate-wise, more so than McCain, but people felt more drawn to Palin, similar to Obama. Listening to the camps, the dems were pleased with Biden's performance, while the reps were jubilant with Palin's. What does that tell you? This debate will give McCain a little boost, although unlikely to match the original jump 5 weeks ago. I expect to see closer polls, at least until next Tuesday.

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greg in charlotte:

Sarah Palin was soooo incredible last night. Poor Biden. Sarah has ended the presidential careers of Obama, Biden and all other Repubs.

Sarah please marry me.

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AJ:

Which part was most incredible to you, Greg? The fact that she actually can read (b/c I wasn't sure of that before) or the fact that she can wink with both eyes.

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thirdparty:

@Dan: That's not true. Maybe that's what Tom Brokaw thinks, but it's not reflected in voter sentiment. If it were the reversal of the first Presidential debate, then that should be reflected in the poll reactions. It's not. CBS poll among uncommitted voters had Biden ahead 46-21. The Media Curves survey shows that Biden won among independents 69-31. That's just overwhelming.

And Biden was certainly not as condescending or contemptuous as McCain. While he didn't look down the camera all the time, he certainly spent considerable lengths of time doing so; probably even moreso than Obama did in his debate performance. Both candidates were personable. You've mentioned what you thought of Palin's demeanour - well, Biden spent large lengths of time looking at Palin while she was speaking, smiled and laughed at her jokes and made several self-deprecating comments about himself.

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thirdparty:

@greg in charlotte: if a massive loss among uncommitted and independent voters is "incredible", what sort of scale are you operating on?

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carl29:

Everyone knows that I am an Obama supporter, but I admit that Gov. Palin "came across" very good, in the eye. Nonetheless, if you were paying attention to what she was actually saying, again, she was not answering the questions, she was "reciting" entire lines. In my opinion, she look totally rehearsed and fake at times. Again, in my opinion.

I think that Joe Biden for the first 20 minutes made the same mistake McCain did during his debate with Obama, didn't look at the camera, looked at the moderator. That's a big mistake because the person looks evasive, not confident. Gov. Palin did exactly what Obama did, talk to the camera and look at the opponent when talking. Wait for McCain to not do the same mistake on Tuesday.

Bottom line, since television distract from what the person is actually saying, I think she helped herself a lot. That is the great advantage of TV, people take into account "performance" to a great degree. Remember the Kennedy vs. Nixon debate? People who saw the debate tought that Kennedy won; people who listened to the debate thought that Nixon won. Obviously the overall appeareance of Kennedy helped. I think the same think will happened with Gov. Palin.

Now, to be very honest, I found her facial gesture a little bit over the top for me. I honestly felt that she was flirting with the camera, which I find quite "unprofessional." I honestly don't think that she came accross as presidential, as a serious candidate. My opinion probably will not be the case for most people, but for me that was quite telling. I saw too much "little faces," like a girl who is about to get into trouble and is trying to make daddy laugh with "sweet faces." I really found it very unprofessional, but this is just my opinion :-)

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boomshak:

JOE BIDEN’S 14 LIES TONIGHT


1. TAX VOTE: Biden said McCain voted “the exact same way” as Obama to increase taxes on Americans earning just $42,000, but McCain DID NOT VOTE THAT WAY.


2. AHMEDINIJAD MEETING: Joe Biden lied when he said that Barack Obama never said that he would sit down unconditionally with Mahmoud Ahmedinijad of Iran. Barack Obama did say specifically, and Joe Biden attacked him for it.


3. OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING: Biden said, “Drill we must.” But Biden has opposed offshore drilling and even compared offshore drilling to “raping” the Outer Continental Shelf.”


4. TROOP FUNDING: Joe Biden lied when he indicated that John McCain and Barack Obama voted the same way against funding the troops in the field. John McCain opposed a bill that included a timeline, that the President of the United States had already said he would veto regardless of it’s passage.


5. OPPOSING CLEAN COAL: Biden says he’s always been for clean coal, but he just told a voter that he is against clean coal and any new coal plants in America and has a record of voting against clean coal and coal in the U.S. Senate.


6. ALERNATIVE ENERGY VOTES: According to FactCheck.org, Biden is exaggerating and overstating John McCain’s record voting for alternative energy when he says he voted against it 23 times.


7. HEALTH INSURANCE: Biden falsely said McCain will raise taxes on people's health insurance coverage -- they get a tax credit to offset any tax hike. Independent fact checkers have confirmed this attack is false


8. OIL TAXES: Biden falsely said Palin supported a windfall profits tax in Alaska -- she reformed the state tax and revenue system, it's not a windfall profits tax.


9. AFGHANISTAN / GEN. MCKIERNAN COMMENTS: Biden said that top military commander in Iraq said the principles of the surge could not be applied to Afghanistan, but the commander of NATO's International Security Assistance Force Gen. David D. McKiernan said that there were principles of the surge strategy, including working with tribes, that could be applied in Afghanistan.


10. REGULATION: Biden falsely said McCain weakened regulation -- he actually called for more regulation on Fannie and Freddie.


11. IRAQ: When Joe Biden lied when he said that John McCain was “dead wrong on Iraq”, because Joe Biden shared the same vote to authorize the war and differed on the surge strategy where they John McCain has been proven right.


12. TAX INCREASES: Biden said Americans earning less than $250,000 wouldn’t see higher taxes, but the Obama-Biden tax plan would raise taxes on individuals making $200,000 or more.


13. BAILOUT: Biden said the economic rescue legislation matches the four principles that Obama laid out, but in reality it doesn’t meet two of the four principles that Obama outlined on Sept. 19, which were that it include an emergency economic stimulus package, and that it be part of “part of a globally coordinated effort with our partners in the G-20.”


14. REAGAN TAX RATES: Biden is wrong in saying that under Obama, Americans won't pay any more in taxes then they did under Reagan.

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boomshak:

Conveniently, neither CNN nor CBS are releasing the party weighting in their polls. I guess they learned their lesson from last time.

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DecaturMark:

@carl29

I agree. Palin was very good at keeping to her talking points. She even admitted that she was not going to answer questions but talk to the American people. I found that a little presumptious. The Amercican people want someone who has a breadth of knowledge and can use that knowledge to make a coherent case in response to the question asked.

Palin's facial expressions and cutesy winks were very off putting. It seemed as though she was trying to pick someone up. Her rambling style of speaking got tiresome at times. Her incessant use of the word "also" made me cringe. Perhaps it is an Alaskan coloquialism, but it drove me batty.

Overall, she was likeable and would like her to be a neighbor or someone on the school board. But as VP, she is not what this country needs.

Biden, on the other hand looked statemanlike. He was affable, self-effacing and passionate. He showed why he is respected by both sides in the Senate.

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Willem van Oranje:

Palin: "I'm not a VP, I just play one on TV"

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zotz:

Boom-
You got the general's name wrong. It's supposed to be McClellan.

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Hoosier:

Well, it looks like Sarah Palin exceeded expectations. Then again, expectations for her were set so low that she could have done anything except flee the stage in terror and still would have "exceeded expectations".

To me, her debate performance came across as "over-programmed". It was obvious that she cannot think quickly on her feet. And I thought that Gwen's questions were pretty tame. I think she was afraid to press anything for fear of a backlash from the right-wing noise machine.

I also thought the "Folksy" act was a bit overdone. At some point, I expected to hear "golly gee there". And the winking??? It kinda creeped me out.

Despite all of this, I don't think Palin did any further damage to the McLame cause. I also think that suspicions about her were confirmed: she is an amatuer who is in no way prepared to lead this nation.

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carl29:

Again guys, I don't know how the "facial expressions," the flirting in my opinion, will play out with the average voter, but it really didn't do any good for me. As a woman, professional woman on my way to becoming an attorney, I fight for keeping my overall appereance as professional as possible. I save those "sweet faces" for police officers :-), my friends, family, and husband, never my professors, bosses, or clients. As I said it, I don't know what the average voter will think, but it surely didn't fly with me.

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DecaturMark:

I thought she was running for student body president trying to get the popularity vote. She did not come across as presidential.

Her folksy tone may work with many people across the country, but I don't see how that tone can be helpful to the US on the world stage. She just doesn't have the gravitas.

Biden, looked commanding, passionate and respectful.

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pbcrunch:

Palin's winking (how many times did she do it? Three? Four?) was very annoying. My friend and I actually did a double take when she did it, rewound a bit on the DVR and laughed out loud. Who does that? This isn't a beauty pageant!

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Viperlord:

@Boom:

1: The surge is not the main factor behind the lower violence in Iraq. Al-Sadr calling off his followers is the main reason, and furthermore, the surge did not accomplish it's main objective.

2: McCain has always called for less regulation, IN HIS OWN WORDS. Factcheck says he only added his signature to a bill on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae when it was far too late to stop it.

3: Biden was dead right on health insurance, you can't buy health insurance with the credit McCain is giving.

4: McCain didn't vote either way on the troop funding bill under discussion, but he did state opposition to it due to the timetable in it.

5:Offshore oil drilling: First of all, you didn't back up anything you said. Second of all, Obama/Biden will allow drilling so long as any bill with drilling has strings attached to ensure development of alternatives.

6: Obama is NOT immediately sitting down with Achmedinjiihad (Sp?). He will engage in the usual diplomatic preparations before a meeting of that magnitude, and has furthermore said Achmedinjiihad may not be the one to talk to.

Gotta run now, no more time, but the rest of it is mostly total crap or comments taken out of context, as Biden himself explained.

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pbcrunch:
To explain its decision to pull back from Michigan, a source close to the McCain campaign emails First Read, "We played in Michigan to spread the field on Obama. As you know, Obama has already abandoned a number of states from his 50-state strategy."

The official continues, "If we win FL, MO, NC, VA, IN and OH -- all states Republicans have won for decades -- that puts us at 260 electoral votes. We need to find 10 electoral votes from CO, NV, NM, NH, MN, WI, and PA. Frankly, we have an easier map than Obama. He’s on the defense."

This has to be the lamest excuse ever. McCain spent more money advertising in MI than Obama. The 2nd paragraph is laughable; McCain's behind 4 of the 6 states first mentioned and Obama's within a couple points of the other two.

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Hoosier:

pbcrunch:

those quotes from the McCain camp are either the ultimate in hubris or cluelessness. Thanks for posting them! Sounds like they've already started drinking the red kool-aid!!

I'm a lifelong Hoosier and I never thought I'd see a day when a Democrat was in serious competition for our electoral votes. Usually, the pattern goes like this: polls here close at 6pm, at 6:01pm the networks light us up red.

For McLame to use the idea that "its always gone GOP" is absolute foolishness. Obama is everywhere here. The only McLame sign I've seen in our county is at my neightbors and I know he drove up to Michigan to get it.

Now, I guess the McSame folks have decided to buy ad time here. I still think Indiana will probably go McLame, but I wouldn't be taking it for granted.

McLame's "strategists" have got to be the worst ever seen since the Dukakis campaign!!

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KipTin:

Rational reason to vote for McCain:

First... common sense... you made a wild assumption that Obama is "smarter" then McCain." How's that? Do you know what Obama does on his time off? Watches sports on TV or plays basketball. In contrast, McCain reads and reads among which are lots of excellent books... many of them focused on history. (Note: McCain also has written four best-selling books-- Faith of My Fathers, Why Courage Matters, Worth the Fighting For, Character is Destiny.)

In other words, McCain is the one with the inquiring mind whereas Obama does just enough to get by and is actually rather mentally lazy in comparison. Obama too often uses his charisma and rote memory to get by. Great attributes for an attorney, but questionable for good leadership.

Second, McCain stands on solid principles whereas Obama is too much of a "pleaser" and most often says what he thinks people want to hear. I have no idea what Obama truly believes and what he would fight for. During the campaign Obama had taken stands to get votes, and then switched to try and get more political advantage. (For example, whatever happened to his promise to filabuster the FISA bill?) McCain's dislike of Obama began when Obama backed out of supporting a bipartisan ethics bill that Obama had previously committed to...and also how Obama did so was not respectful. Obama does not stand by his words.

Third, McCain shows his courage in many good ways. Although not expecting any votes or warm reception, McCain went to Selma and Memphis. He apologized for his vote against MLK Day as well as for not standing up against the Confederate Flag flying at South Carolina capitol. McCain knew up front that there was no political gain to expose himself to the disdain of many in these events. Some call it "risky" behavior. Looks like courage and commitment to me.

Fourth, the idea of a President Obama aligned with Senate Leader Reid and Speaker Pelosi is really frightening. That would be one-party rule that would far exceed the excesses of the Bush/GOP Congress. There is NO way for a balanced budget in this scenario, but rather a guarantee of ever-increasing federal debt. McCain/Palin would not let the Democratic Congress continue down this path of fiscal destruction.


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bclintonk:

McCain up only 10 in KY? Most pre-debate polls showed Grampy with an 18 to 20 point advantage in the Bluegrass State. I'm not suggesting Obama can close this gap by election day but it does show significant movement in his direction and suggests he may be making headway in overcoming his "Appalachian voters" problem, which bodes well in neighboring West Virginia (now tight and getting tighter), southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, western North Carolina, and central Pennsylvania---all areas where McCain needs to rack up huge pluralities to be competitive in their respective states.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Tyler:

Stop foaming at the mouth, kiddo! There's no way in hell Obambi's winning NC.

BTW, shouldn't he be up like 20% in NM..considering Richardson aka "Judas" has thrown his weight behind him?

What a loser!

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