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Rasmussen: MS, TN, TX (9/30)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen Reports
Mode: IVR

Mississippi 9/30, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 44
Sen: Wicker (R-i) 49, Musgrove (D) 47

Tennessee 9/29, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 58, Obama 39
Sen: Alexander (R-i) 56, Tuke (D) 32

Texas 9/29, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 52, Obama 43
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 50, Noriega (D) 43

 

Comments
Commander_King:

McCain better start defending Texas lmao.

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Tyler:

Pretty good news for Musgrove in MS

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political_junki:

In MS and TX McSame is ahead less than 10 points!
Poor retarded old bat!

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Ryan in MO:

obama closing in

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jamesia:

Not that Obama might win any of these states... but McCain with an under 10 point lead? Not good.

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jamesia:

Guess which state McCain will be making a quick couple of stops in?

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Atomique:

Oh my God, John McCain is only +8 in MISSISSIPPI?! In the *Rasmussen* poll?

Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce President Barack Hussein Obama!

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ericsp28:

Wow, look at that MS Senate poll!

I had a feeling this whole bailout fiasco would hurt the GOP in the Congressional races, but I never imagined MS would be in play!
The GA Senate race is tightening up too.

It just boggles the mind!

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Mike_in_CA:

well, even though it has SEEMED like an insanely good day for polling, I can't say we didn't all EXPECT this... Obama has been up 6 or so nationally. That translates into a landslide. Winning Missouri would definitely be in the landslide equation.

Honestly, today's polls are more what i've been expecting...

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glober:

This just shows how far the Obama trend is going. But there is no way Obama can take states likes MS or TN. Leave that for the Reps. BO doen't need them. We all know why Obama is doing badly there, aside from being a Dem. That said, blacks account for around 35% of the population in MS, and believe me, 98% will vote for BO.

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tjampel:

WOW is all I have to say regarding MS and TX. Both had looked like they'd dropped off the map.

I'm sure some of this is specifically related to the economic crisis and the fear (and loathing) it's generated against BushCo but I don't think you can just put the genie back in the bottle. This crisis will cost McCain a point or more, and there was no margin of error to begin with as he was down a pretty solid 2 points as baseline to start with. Perhaps these states will be more volatile in swinging back towards McCain as the bounce wears off but...if TX and MS are canaries they're singing pretty loud right now.

Of far greater interest to me is the Noriega race (and Wicker, as well). Noriega was way down in all recent polls until this one. TX has been trending Dem and will be Dem-dominated in 4-8 years simply due to changing demographics (Hispanics have been moving in and....now...their US citizen kids are all growing up, plus more Northeast and Midwest folks have made TX their home. I don't see Obama making up the ground but can imagine the Senate race getting closer in a hurry if Coryn is seen as part of the problem as a Bush loyalist (90% voting with him). I also think that Dems are going to have some pretty heavy-duty GOTV machinery this cycle, thanks to the primaries (thank you Hillary!)

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RussTC3:

Mississippi 9/30 (8/21)
McCain 52 (56)
Obama 44 (43)
+5 Obama Swing

Tennessee 9/29 (8/20)
McCain 58 (60)
Obama 39 (35)
+6 Obama Swing

Texas 9/29 (8/21)
McCain 52 (54)
Obama 43 (44)
+1 Obama Swing

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Scott W:

Take Cover!! By Friday it will be pretty clear what is coming (to anyone that looks at the facts over spin) - A LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Gary Kilbride:

Naturally a lead of this size is going to apply to the individual states. The only one that looks odd there is Tennessee, which shouldn't be that one sided. But perhaps the factors of Obama weaker there than a typical Democrat, a lopsided senate race in favor of the GOP, and no emphasis from Democrats in that state, combine to hint the partisan index may take a red jump in Tennessee.

Obama's national lead figures to tighten. I still expect it to end in the 2-3 range, perhaps 4 if everything breaks perfectly for him. Once it starts narrowing, the state numbers will come home and look more sensible. Right now everything is too rosy for Obama and I'm hoping to catch some cheap prices on McCain on Intrade and elsewhere in second tier states.

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CaliforniaIndie:

You're right - it's not like Obama's going to win TX. But, if I'm not mistaken (which I could be) these numbers look closer to the margins that Bill Clinton lost southern states by in '92 and '96. He faired pretty well, unlike Kerry who got absolutely clobbered in these southern states - sometimes by 2 to 1 margins.

This could point to Obama pulling more of these so-called Regan Democrats that everyone was worried he couldn't win during the primaries. It may just be a coincidence, but my sense is that if the margins of loss in these types of states stay in this range, Obama will clean up in the swing state category.

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Robi:

I hate when they poll in states that are pretty much decided already. Wasted resources that could be spent in OH or FL or VA etc.

BTW I'm voting early in OH tomorrow!

GO OBAMA!

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Evolve:

I wish they would poll any state that has a senate race in it. If we want change Obama should put more resources in these states, maybe he can pull a senate seat or two with his coat tails.

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PortlandRocks:

WOW someone's cranky and tired! McCain needs to get to bed earlier!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/mccain-gets-testy-with-de_n_130801.html

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PortlandRocks:

HOLY JESUS! Obama up 9 per CBS news.
Boom? FAIL.

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Scott W:

MCBLUSTER SWEEPS THE "A" STATES....

This just in - CNN now projects that McCain is likely to SWEEP all states beginning with teh letter A! AL, AK, AZ AR. Clearly this has to be great news for the McCain "A Team".

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PortlandRocks:

RCP Average 09/25 - 09/30 -- 48.9 43.6 Obama +5.3
CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 769 LV 50 41 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 09/27 - 09/29 916 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/27 - 09/29 1181 LV 49 43 Obama +6
Associated Press/GfK 09/27 - 09/30 808 LV 48 41 Obama +7
Ipsos/McClatchy 09/26 - 09/29 1007 RV 48 45 Obama +3
Time 09/26 - 09/29 1133 LV 50 43 Obama +7
Gallup Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 2746 RV 48 44 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 902 RV 47 42 Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/25 - 09/30 800 LV 48 46 Obama +2

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BOOMFAIL:

Obama +9 CBS!

Landslide Baby Landslide

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Trosen:

If McCain has to spend 5 minutes in any places like TX, MS, LA, GA.. he's sunk. As it is he's going to have to hold on to NC, MO, IN, VA with all his might. Things are slipping away fast and I think the Obama ground game is starting to pay dividends, like some of the shocking #s we saw in the primaries.

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political_junki:

New research2000 poll McSame 46 Obama 45

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political_junki:

that is in indiana

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parantaja:

Texas may seem unlikely for Obama on the surface, especially given it's voting history.

BUT, there are 2 pieces of voting data I find encouraging.

2,832,704 and 2,874,986

What are these numbers? Well, the first is the total number of Texas votes for John Kerry in the 2004 election.

The second is the number total of votes cast (for all Democratic candidates) in the 2008 Texas primary.

Not only is this an 88% increase over the voter turnout for the '04 primaries, it's slightly higher than the TOTAL turnout for Kerry in '04 in the general election.

Assuming that the general rule of turnout in primaries vs. actual elections (interest in primaries generally being much lower), if voter turnout is high enough (fingers crossed), Texas just might turn blue this year.

Feel free to correct me if my numbers or my assumptions are way off base, but make sure you have the data to back it up. :)

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Trosen:

Like that won't be banned and deleted.

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joydivision8:

The election is over a month away. Do these polls really mean much at this point? The numerous people on here saying that "it's over for McCain" are delusional or not that bright. No matter who was leading right now, I would not be celebrating or predicting victory yet. If I was the McCain camp, I am fine with "bottoming out" at this point, and building momentum up to November 4th. Obama has peaked way too early.

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douglasfactors:

I'm amused that the author of a post that offensive felt obliged to censor the word "ass."

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Save US:

Bookshak:

I have not seen the polls lately... Whats been going on? :)

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burrito:

Okay, let me try the "boomshak" theory of polls ...

Obama is tied in Texas and Mississippi !!!!

The MOE of these polls is 4.5%, therefore Obama is 48.5 vs McCain 47.5 in MS ... and in TX Obama is 47.5 vs McCain 47.5 ...

Now I understand what boomshak means that this race is really tight ... he meant in these states !!!

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Tyler:

@douglassfactors

I'm more amused that the moderators of this site chose to censor the n-word by replacing it with "Monday". It makes racist posts like Noah's sound hilariously absurd.

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Pat:

New CBS national poll: Obama up by 9 (50-41).

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keytype123:

keytype123:
As you can see you Dem's are all talking amongst yourselves.We Rep's are a bit dispirited so go ahead and chat-if things pick up we may be back but it doesn't look likely.It has been fun but when the economy tanks and your party is in govt there is nothing that can be done.
Cheers

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Hoosier:

And just when you thought Boomer was the most offensive Neaderthal on this site, we now have Noah J. He just proves my theory that people who preach White Supremacy are the best aguements AGAINST it. LOL

Seriously, Noah, why don't you head back to your trailer park and sleep with your sister like a good inbred. This site is for people who don't drag their knuckles when they walk (and I include my GOP friends here among the upright).

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Tarp Lazer:

Noah, none of what you wrote even makes remote sense. Good try though.

If there were reeducation camps (this is an ironic assertion by the way since you guys send people to camps to get over being gay) for white trash, I'm not sure you'd be able to be saved.

I've decided that I will start using the word McCainobat to sound clever.

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zotz:

Noah Jigaboo-
EAT the bitterness of utter DEFEAT!!!

HAHA! HAHAHA! HA!

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Hoosier:

HIGH FIVE to Tarp Lazer!!!

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MNLatteLiberal:

In the absence of marctx and boomshack, allow me to explain:
"see if you average the Rasmussen TX poll which gives McCain +9 with the CBS national (which I haven't yet seen, and which, therefore, does not exist) that allegedly gives Obama +9, you get the dead head I was predicting last week and yesterday. If you now consider that CBS is run by pinko leftist media and gotcha journalistic standards (Katie Couric), and the fact that Rasmussen is One True Pollster, these recent polls actually give McCain an edge."

See? Easy.

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McShame:

Obama up 16 in Iowa - 55-39!

http://www.kcci.com/politics/17598982/detail.html

That trip to Iowa couldn't have come at a better time!

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McShame:

"We've seen such a variety of polls. Sometimes we're up. Sometimes we're down. I think the bottom line is this is going to be a very close election," said Dave Roederer, McCain's Iowa campaign state chairman.

When were they up?

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marctx:

MNLatteLiberal:

I'm here. But the polls are what they are. You guys are winning. I might have to rejoin my fellow democrats to be on the winning side.

Anyway, since most of my predictions were wrong. I'm predicting Obama pulls further ahead next week. Maybe I can jinx him...lol.

I know its bad when my friends and co-workers are talking about how bad it will be for Obama when the recession and the economy collapses under his watch and we can call him the Carter of this century. With the bailout he is buying a lemon, then we can blame him for the whole thing.

Especially after the economy will be so bad that he won't be able to fulfill a single promise he made.

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John:

@McShame

I wondered the same thing. So I checked the polls and indeed Dave was right there was one poll in which McCain was up by a point.
It was taken on January the fifteenth.
2007

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crackbaldo:

marctx:

I think people will never forgive Obama if he can't make good on his promises he made. Bush has left the country in such great shape that Obama must be able to put all that extra tax revenue to good use.

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crackbaldo:

marctx:

I think people will never forgive Obama if he can't make good on his promises he made. Bush has left the country in such great shape that Obama must be able to put all that extra tax revenue to good use.

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marctx:

crackbaldo:

I didn't understand your post. Explain.

I concede Obama is running away with this, but some of this is getting even more ridiculous. Getting 5 year olds to sing praise Obama songs, getting homeless people to vote Obama with the new same day registration in Ohio, appointing an Obama supporter with a financial vesting interest to moderate the debate...come on! Throw us a bone! We're tanking here.

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Richard CJ:

Regarding Texas. I live in the gulf coast area of Texas and the only thing I can really lay witness to is that going through my neighborhood there are 7 Obama yard signs to 2 McCain's, in a mostly white, middle class neighborhood. All that I can say is that this is the first time I've ever seen more democrat signage than republican...which in Texas is like seeing snow on the ground. Maybe something has really frozen over down here...

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crackbaldo:

marctx:

My post was a bit of sarcasm. You stated that with the way the economy is right now, if Obama gets elected, he will essentially be th next Jimmy Carter. I think people understand how bad things are right now, and will bear with Obama until he geys us out of the mess Bush has put us in.

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crackbaldo:

Noah Jigaboo:

I thnk you should move to Sweden where you won't have to see many "Mondays." Although they're socialists, so you probably still won't be happy.

Oh, and yeah, only hard core real heterosexual men like you can defend our country. Classic retard.

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marctx:

crackbaldo:

Okay. Thanks. But it didn't play that way in the past. Bill Clinton enjoyed the Reagan legacy. Bush was blamed for the Clinton failures.

Obama will get blame or praise for the economic situation in three years when the next campaign starts.

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marctx:

What is a "Monday"?

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crackbaldo:

marctx:

You may be right. But if Obama can turn this mess around before 2012, he will be a shoe in for re-election. Assuming he wins this one, of course.

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[nemesis]:

marctx... I'll give you a hint. Noah hates them, and I suspect he's an avid supporter of the KKK. He's also an idiot, but that's another point altogether... or not.

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Bigmike:

marctx

WE are not tanking here. McCain is, his campaign is. But we are not. You are right that if Obama doesn't fix the mess, he is going to get a lot of blame and won't be re-elected. Then, if we can find a real Conservative candidate, things will get going in the right direction.

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zotz:

Noah Jigaboo-
I've got some news for you. You were fighting for Exxon and Haliburton. Iraq never threatened the US. Cheney got millions from Haliburton. I'm sure he appreciates all the hard work you did so he could have a comfy retirement.

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marctx:

[nemesis]:

Don't know what you mean. I am ignoring that racist.

crackbaldo:

If Obama can turn this around in his presidency I will vote for him next time. But I doubt it when he wants to raise taxes and drive jobs to other countries.

Bigmike:

I meant the McCain campaign. Bad move after bad move.


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Hoosier:

Hey, Noah Jigaboo:

You really are a retard and a disgrace to whatever uniform you choose to wear. Just for the record:

We are a gold star family who has proudly sent sons off to war to fight since the Civil War. Unlike you, our men returned from war more mature and with a broader view of the world. I am also a deputy sheriff and its chimps like you who make people see cops in a bad light. I have also never attended an anti-war protest. And, by the way, you never saved my ass from anything. Iraq was only a threat to the American oil companies. There were no weapons of mass destruction. Face it, you were duped into fighting a war for Exxon, not my freedoms.

You truly do represent the twin towers of the Republican Party: ignorance and intolerance. it must just gall you to see a successful, eloquent black man poised to be elected president while you sit home stewing in your own stupidity.

As for you being sent to a "re-education camp", I don't think that will happen. As the old adage says "You just can't polish a turd."

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tjampel:

@marctx
"appointing an Obama supporter with a financial vesting interest to moderate the debate..."

1. I didn't realize that Obama's folks chaired the Debates Committee or had greater influence than McCain. After all McCain is the one that got Palin the "powder puff" debate rules for tomorrow's debate; thanks for the info though.

2. Now think real hard and tell me if it would really help or HURT Palin if Ifill is replaced?
I'm sure that McCains debate team has studied every question Gwen posed in her last VP debate and has prepped Palin based on them. Changing over to someone else at the last moment would most likely cause even more chaos over at triage-central in Sedona, and Palin's head might actually come even closer to exploding come tomorrow night if she had to relearn all her lines.

I think Ifill is a great boon to Palin and McCain because it provides a scapegoat for any difficulties she experiences...."the deck was stacked against her by a partisan media hack". Additionally, Ifill probably will bend over backwards now to appear fair and balanced, and that may include dumbing down her questions enough to let Palin step over the 6" high bar set for her. I hope she asks tough but fair issues-oriented questions.

The one good thing about Ifill is that she tends to ask policy-based questions rather than gotcha ones. This will probably diffuse any criticism post-debate, if Palin stumbles.

I think Palin will do fine, if not win the debate, btw.

I also think she's a danger to the country if McCain is elected. I'd almost promise to vote for McCain (if he had a good chance to win at least) if he'd simply dump her and put Romney or someone else capable of running this country on the ticket. Don't you cringe thinking about Sara Palin as our actual President?

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Basil:

NJ you are one colorful individual with a truly random set of values. I suggest you try to stop your cycle of dependence on whatever it is you are currently depending on. Assuming you're not a liar, cops like you are systematically driven crazy by having to do what I'm guessing you're no longer qualified to do in Memphis. If you are a cop, you're giving cops a bad name.

Get help, really. You've OD'd on OD's. And BTW, except that you've gone bonkers, the AA "cycle of dependency" is a real and problematic subject. Just ask Bill Cosby or Barack Obama.

OK

Everyone in the country should see the Des Moines Register comments from McCain as well as the magazine and Supreme Court answers by Palin. As weird a set of clips as I've ever seen from politicians in their positions. McCain's got his own little cycle of dependence going, I suspect (namely Go Pills and No-go Pills). Palin's problem isn't drugs, but she's going to need them soon I'm afraid.

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tjampel:

@Noah Jigaboo:

"
tarp lazer, crackbaldo,i am gay but unlike you who is dragging his knuckles in order to get shagged by the next hedonistic liberal meat gazer i vote with my mind not my penis. I care about the slaughter of unborn children, excessive taxation,big government social engineering creating a cycle of dependence.How about individual merit not racist affirmative action. I believe America is noble and right not the socialists of europe. I support Israel not its islamist enemies. Like mccain i even support immigration reform because it is the Latinos and Asians who actually work 4 a living and have traditional conservative values who will save our nation."


hmmm....gay pro-life wingnut...

I guess we can call you an oxymoron instead of your garden-variety moron. Do you pray at Fred Phelps' ("God hates fags") church? The other wingnuts who spew your talking points certainly vote and speak as if THEY do. The people who champion your views, by and large, believe that the Bible condemns homosexuality, and that practicing homosexuals who don't repent are damned to an eternity in hell.

And surely you must be aware of the positive correlation between support for abortion and other right wing positions and intolerance for gays (including sponsoring and passing anti-gay marriage laws and pushing back against both anti-discrimination laws (allowing a partner to see his/her lover in a hospital, inheritance, employment benefits, health benefits for example) and, of course hate crimes legislation.

I wish you luck in your life and am happy that, because of the efforts of gay rights advocates (find ONE that was a right-winger....thought not), and these very same liberal congresspeople and state legislators that you so despise, you don't have to experience the kind of discrimination and hatred that gays have historically dealt with for centuries.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

@Noah Jigaboo,

at risk of not sounding civil.

I dont care how many iraqi children you killed but i guess that was ok because they were born and not unborn. How does it feel knowing that in this country soon being white will be the minority.

You make me sick, I cant wait until the racists/bigot holdovers from the last generation die off, and if you're of this generation god help you. Its sad that racism is taught not learned, you must've been very loved growing up.

It amazes me that conservatives never think about how maybe this country is an economic powerhouse because its a REALLY big country ,with at one time a lot of resources, and has nothing to do with the 'free market', and never did.

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DaveAustralia:

Haha!!! Obama only down by 9 in TX!!! Texas should be in play by the weekend following Palins implosion in the debate!!!

Remember where you heard it first Boomshak!!

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ErnieLynch:

Noah Jigaboo:

See Guam, many South Pacific islands, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Cuba, back further Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California. We even invaded Canada once.

These are the areas that the US invaded for territorial gain.

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Lechuguilla:

As someone who lives in Texas, I concur with the conclusion of the Texan above who said there were 7 yard signs for Obama and 2 for McCain in their neighborhood.

In a heavily Republican area here in far north Dallas, I've seen 2 McCain signs and 3 signs for Obama. Four years ago, it was about a billion signs for Bush.

If, and it's a big if, Obama's national lead swells to roughly 10 percent, Obama will likely carry Texas.

Lech

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The_Huntsman:

Wow, if McCain can reduce the number of Mondays I really WILL switch my vote to him. I hate Mondays. They are the worst day of the week and should be banned.

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carl29:

Rasmussen has Obama up by 3% in North Carolina, for the second consecutive week. Right now, according to Rasmussen, in North Carolina Obama 50% McCain 47%. Ah...guess who is going to campaign in North Carolina next week? Yes, you guessed, Palin :-) It seems that some people are getting worried about North Carolina. Imagine, who could have said it: A republican candidate defending North Carolina in October :-)

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Hoosier:

Noah J:

The more you open your mouth, the more entertaining you become. You honestly believe that gas would become CHEAPER because of the war??? This wasn't about controlling rpices, it was about controlling commodities. They could find the world's largest oil deposit in Nebraska, and the thieving oil companies would still find a way to gouge the consumers. These oil execs don't give a damn about people like you, yet you mindlessly support their puppet John McLame.

When I was a kid, the GOP was seen as the party of the educated, the upper income, and the tolerant. Now, it is the party of people like you: the ignorant, the gullible, and the intolerant.

As I said before, crawl back into your trailer, eat your possum, and watch Fox News like a good little inbred.

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Hoosier:

Does anyone know if Mississippi has early voting? I know early voting turnout in other states is shattering all predictions and was just curious how MS does things. I know TX has early voting.

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sherman:

Needless to say, the chance of getting 60 seats for the Dems is looking slightly better. Of course, that would mean having to keep Lieberman on board for awhile, which may be too much to swallow.

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Dan:

I Like the sign poll. I live in MI, and in my area, I counted 8 McCain signs to 4 Obama signs. Does that mean McCain will carry MI with 67% of the vote? My other favorite is that MS is in play because McCain only leads by 8%, whereas a 5% national lead by Obama amounts to a landslide. That reminds me of the small town that saw a 100% increase in violent crimes when it reported 2. That said , the election will come down to OH, VA, and CO. IF Obama wins one of these three, he's in. These states will go dem. before NC, MO, or FL. I'm waiting for a rebound from the financial crises and the VP debates for our next direction. Still five weeks left!

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