Mark Blumenthal | June 6, 2007
Topics: 2008 , Divergent Polls , The 2008 Race
In response to my post yesterday on the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, I received this comment via email from USA Today Polling Editor Jim Norman:
Concerning your question about whether our weekend poll had a higher percentage of independents than the previous Gallup one, the answer is "not really". Democrat-leaning independents comprised 34% of the sample in our most recent question about the Democratic race, 35% of the sample when the question was asked May 10-13.
A look at other subgroups where Obama has been running well showed that there were virtually no differences from the May poll to the one last weekend in the percentages of (a) those with annual household incomes $75,000 and above; (b) college grads; and (c) men. There was a change in the percentage of those younger than 50, another good group for Obama, but they represented a smaller proportion (35%) of our current poll than of the one in May (41%)
The new numbers may be a function of the small sample, as Frank points out, but it's not because of substantive changes in the proportions of the key subgroups.
Gallup's Frank Newport also emailed to say that he would post more on this topic soon on his USA Today "Gallup Guru" blog.