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Re: Will Pollsters Call During the Superbowl

Topics: 2008 , ABC/Washington Post , Barack Obama , Gallup , Hillary Clinton , Pollsters , Sampling , The 2008 Race

On Friday I posted a brief item wondering about what effect last night's Super Bowl broadcast might have on number collected over the weekend. Gallup emailed to say they would not call during the game, and I assume most pollsters that were in the field last night did the same. I wondered about the demographics of game watchers as measured by an ABC/Washington Post poll last week. Late last night, the Post's Jon Cohen emailed with the following breakdown of those who planned to watch the game:

  • 72 percent of men, 50 percent of women.
  • Two-thirds of those under 45; half of seniors.
  • 76 percent of men 18-45
  • 69 percent of those with household incomes $75K+, 51 percent of thoseunder $25K

As I explained on Friday, my guess is that the inability to call for four or five hours last night probably had little effect on the poll results we are seeing now. Still the demographic profile identified above looks considerably more like Obama supporters than Clinton supporters.

 

Comments
s.b.:

Ok something very strange happened in the Gallup rolling poll numbers for the last three days.

I have been keeping track on what the one night polls have to be to reach the three day averages they get.

Friday, Obama 38%, Clinton 50%
Saturday Obama 53%, Clinton 41%
Sunday Obama 38%, Clinton 50%

Average Obama 43%, Clinton 47%

These have to be the nightly numbers. ive been figuring them for a few weeks.

How does someone go from 38% to 53% to 38% in three days?

Saturday was a particularly biased and vicious day in the MSM against Clinton, which is all I can figure, and an outlier on Saturday.

Or is Sunday the Outlier? We will see based on tomorrow's rolling numbers. If it was a one day blip then Obama will not do as well as many are predicting in Super Tuesday contests based on this surge, and it will actually be very detrimental to his campaign because the expectations have been placed so high. Or, it will help him based on people voting for whomever they think is winning, but we saw the reverse of this in NH and I think it could happen again.

This one day surge for Obama, if it is that, could have seriously effected all of the recent poll releases for national numbers which included that night.

Respond?

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