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Roundup of Final UK Vote & Seat Projections

Mark Blumenthal | May 5, 2010

Topics: UK elections

The final UK polls have been released and our colleagues at PollingReport/UK and PoliticsHome have updated their averages and seat projections. Here is a quick summary for your convenience.

First, via PollingReport/UK are eight final polls. Anthony Wells has all the methodological details on each:

The following table summarizes the polling averages and vote share estimates from various websites:

Finally, PoliticsHome has posted their final projections and updated their constituency map. For your reference, the table below includes their seat projections as well as the final predictions from FiveThirtyEight, ElectoralCalculus and the three scenarios from Simon Hix and Nick Vivyan at the London School of Economics and Political Science:

Since 326 seats are required for a party to win a absolute majority and form a government [not quite -- see below], all of these models are forecasting a hung parliament. But also notice how much variation they show -- a range of 46 seats on projections for the Conservative and Labour. Those differences alone should tell you something about the uncertainty involved.

[Correction: As Jim Miller explains at length, the Speaker ordinarily does not vote and five members of the Sinn Fein party are not allowed to vote because they refuse to take a loyalty oath, so the real number needed for an absolute majority -- absent the support of minor parties -- is 323].

By Mark Blumenthal | May 5, 2010 11:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)