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Sampling Error

July 02, 2008

From "joejoejoe," regarding yesterday's release of a new national survey from CNN/ORC: Here's the headline to the CNN story that accompanies the poll. 'CNN poll: Obama, McCain in a statistical dead heat' I'm not sure why a 5-point lead in...

June 20, 2008

A "Flaw" in the Iowa Poll?

Earlier today, commenter "axt113" noticed what he or she described as a "flaw" in the just released Iowa poll from SurveyUSA: "It has McCain winning the AA vote 55% to 45." I was distracted and nearly let it pass, but...

May 30, 2008

Rubbish?

By now your favorite political blog has probably informed you of David Runciman's essay in the London Review of Books in which he reviews the Obama-Clinton race from a British perspective and includes this broadside against American polling: Yet if...

March 25, 2008

Re: 46-45 Plus or Minus 3

Update: In the comments, Chris G argues that I am "way off" to conclude that "there has been far more stability than change in the national Obama-Clinton vote preference since Super Tuesday." He writes: [T]hat simply does not follow from...

March 25, 2008

46-45 Plus or Minus 3

In case you missed our update, the most recent Gallup Daily result on the Democratic race shows a near dead-heat, with Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by a single percentage point margin not nearly large enough to attain statistical...

February 14, 2008

The Keith Number

My latest National Journal column looks at Keith Olbermann's polling innovation, the Keith Number....

May 15, 2007

ARG Etc.

The new trial heat match-ups posted yesterday by the American Research Group (ARG) for the national Democratic presidential primary generated some comments worth responding to, both here and on other sites. First, consider the results, as presented on the...

October 04, 2006

Tennessee Polls: Not Created Equal

Instapundit Glenn Reynolds asked a good question yesterday: THE LATEST POLL shows a Ford-Corker dead heat. Hmm. Just yesterday we had one with Ford up by 5; not long before that there was one with Corker up by 5. Is...

August 22, 2006

Another Online Poll on Online Activity

Last week's "Numbers Guy" column by Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal Online looked at another online survey about an online activity, in this case about online alcohol sales to teenagers. Bialik noticed something in the release that the...

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