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Sarah Went Down to Georgia


With today's release of the latest PPP poll in Georgia, we now have three surveys conducted in the last week showing incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss with leads ranging from 3 to 7 percentage points over Democratic challenger Jim Martin in the Georgia Senate Runoff election that will be held tomorrow (all of the surveys are included in our Georgia Runoff chart). As PPP's Tom Jensen explains, the result in these surveys is highly sensitive to the African American composition either measured or assumed by each pollster, although the three public pollsters active in the last week are in rough agreement on the African American composition of tomorrow's electorate: PPP puts it at 28%, DailyKos/Research2000 at 27%, Insider Advantage at 23%. According to the network exit poll, Georgia's African American composition was 28% in the November 4 election.

What are the campaign's internal polls telling them? A fouth survey conducted a week ago by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Comittee also had Chambliss ahead, but by only two percentage points (48% to 46%), although the DSCC release included no information about that survey's racial composition.

For what it's worth, NBC's Chuck Todd had this to say this morning on MSNBC in a discussion about why President-elect Obama has not campaigned in Georgia for Martin (my transcript, no link):

Had Obama thought he could win this thing for Martin, had Obama thought he could drag Martin over the finish line, he would have gone down, he would have done an event [in Georgia]. But I talked to some Obama folks who said, "that's when you'll know whether we really believe we can win this thing is if we go." And the fact that they didn't go, tells you they think they're going to come four, five points short.

And speaking of inferring what internal polls are saying based on the actions of campaigns, consider the decision by the Chambliss campaign to bring Sarah Palin to Georgia to speak at four rallies today. For all the popular derision of Sarah Palin's future in Republican politics (see Doonesbury). the move by Chambliss to bring her to Georgia implies their internal surveys say Palin has continuing appeal to the conservative base in Georgia.

A handful of national surveys show that while Palin's popularity fell considerably among Democrats and independents since her debut at the Republican convention, Palin remains very popular among conservative Republicans. Specifically,

  • 86% of Republicans interviewed in the 11/6-9 CNN/ORC survey rate Palin favorably.
  • 67% of Republicans, and 73% of conservative Republicans, told Gallup (11/5-16) they would like to see Palin run for President in 2012.
  • 77% of Republicans told CNN/ORC just before the election (10/30-11/1) that the would support Palin for president in 2012 if McCain was not elected this year; 46% said they would "strongly" support Palin in four years.

Those numbers tell us that Palin will likely remain a force to be reckoned with in Republican party over the next four years. It is worth remembering that Barack Obama's campaign demonstrated a new model of how to run for president. His biggest asset, especially during 2007, was his ability to draw large crowds to campaign rallies. The Obama campaign effectively harnessed that energy, using rallies to collect small contributors, email addresses and incoming text messages and ultimately to build the grassroots campaign that enabled him win the Democratic nomination. Obviously, Obama brought far more to the race than celebrity, but his campaign's ability to use that appeal to raise funds and recruit volunteers made the rest of his campaign possible.

 

Comments
Vicente Duque:


Mr Mark Blumenthal :

Very interesting and astonishing news about the favorability of Sarah Palin inside Republicans.

I want to add this comment :

While Mitt Romney has railed and ranted against Latinos, Sarah Palin has been courting them. So Sarah is shrewder.

Sarah spoke in favor of Latinos and incorporating them gradually as citizens in an interview with Telemundo.

Sarah may not be an encyclopedia of knowledge but she is shrewd. She knows that she needs voters.

Bloomberg.com explains how Republicans lost key voters in key states :

"This creates a considerable wedge-issue dilemma for Republicans: In primaries, many of the party’s core voters believe these “aliens” are debasing American values; that’s why politicians like Mitt Romney flipped into immigration- bashers this year."

Romney should study this aphorism :

"You are master of your silence and slave of your words"

Perhaps Sarah is not so aggressive or mean, she is just immature. Four years are a lifetime in Politics. She can mature and study the nuances of Foreign Policy.

Milenials.com

TossUpStates.com

Vicente Duque

____________________

RS:

Given that Obama himself lost Georgia by 5%, a personal appearance by Obama was perhaps unlikely to begin with. And now, polls suggest the Libertarian vote is going to Chambliss - if these voters are really Lib, they probably don't want a Democratic super-majority in the Senate.
So this race is set up very nicely for a national Republican figure to come in and "save" the day... And we know Governor Palin's politically savvy (usually).

@Vincent Duque: You should distinguish between Latinos/Hispanics who *are* US citizens - have been for generations even - and immigrants... I haven't heard that interview (preferring not to follow Palin's antics), hopefully she did too... The reason Bush did well with the Hispanic community was probably because of his experience in Texas; no such luck for Palin in Alaska.

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Vicente Duque:

I discovered a website with wonderful data and information on the past November 4 Election : ProjectVote.org with a page that I link below the quotation.

And two paragraphs are super pills that shade a lot of light on what happened.

"Ballots cast in each category increased from 2004 to 2008, with the exception of White voters, who cast over 720,000 fewer ballots in 2008 than in 2004. Conversely, non-White voters cast several million more ballots in 2008 than they did in 2004.
.............

African-Americans cast over 2.9 million more ballots, an increase of 22 percent; Latinos cast over 1.5 million more ballots, an increase of 16 percent; young Americans, age 18 to 29, cast over 1.9 million more votes, an increase of 9 percent."

http://projectvote.org/fileadmin/ProjectVote/Blog_docs/Demographics_of_Voters_in_the_2008_Election.pdf

That says all, while young Whites may have increased ( mostly Democratic ) turnout, older Whites stayed at home ( mostly Republicans ).

Milenials.com

Vicente Duque

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