Scoring the Debate (If It Happens)
Mark Blumenthal | September 25, 2008
My weekly NationalJournal.com column, on the challenges of using surveys to "score" debate winners, is now posted.
points up one of the challenges of writing an edited column as compared to a blog. On the one hand, the first rate copy editing of my National Journal colleagues cleans up my prose considerably, and cuts way down on the typos. On the other hand, there is more of a lag between when I write and when the column goes online.
When I turned in my copy earlier in the week, no one would have imagined that the scheduled candidate's debate might not occur. But as of this writing, John McCain's desire to skip Friday night's debate means it may not happen, at least not this week.
As I note in the column, the presidential debates really have become a unique event in American politics: The one moment when the vast majority of voters tunes in, the one time when both candidates have a truly captive audience that will sit and listen to them for 90 minutes. No other event in the presidential campaign, and no campaign for any other office, attracts as great a share of the electorate for as much time. From the column:
Four years ago, according to Nielsen Media Research, 62.5 million Americans watched the first debate between John Kerry and George W. Bush. That fell short of the record 80.6 million that saw Ronald Reagan debate Jimmy Carter in 1980, but it was an enormous audience nonetheless.
All indications are that that interest in Friday's debate is as high as the that in 2004. "Fully 58% of Americans say they are very likely to watch the debate," the Pew Research Center reports today, "while 24% said they are somewhat likely to tune in. When the asked the same question four years ago, 61% said they were very likely to watch, compared to 43% just before the 2000 debates.
That interest, and the likely audience size it implies, underscores the risk that McCain is taking.
A side point that is less relevant if the debate gets pushed back; The degree to which presidential debates have the potential to be "decisive" or "game changing" may seem to stir disagreement, but that may depend on whether you see the glass as, 98% empty (if you will) or 2% full. The past polling data crunched by Tom Holbrook and Gallup's Lydia Saad suggest that changes they produce in the horse race numbers are typically small. As Nate Silver puts it, "the typical debate [from 1988 to 2000] moved the national polling trend support by an average of 2 points." But in a race that has been as close at it is, that 2% could be very decisive.
By Mark Blumenthal | September 25, 2008 3:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (20) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
OOOOOOOHHHH. I don't think so. Palin "stealing the spotlight" could be a disaster given her recent public appearances. What McCain was hoping was that Obama would somehow agree to displace the VP debate, so she DOESN'T bring down the campaign by looking like a deer in the headlights next Thursday. They know she is not ready to field weighty questions... but they are running out of time... this is no more than a badly calculated stall...
@Babbit
That can't possibly be the case since the McCain campaign suggested moving the first debate back a week to replace the VP debate, and postponing the VP debate to some unspecified time in the future.
If it really has to do with Palin at all, it looks if anything like a ploy to delay her debate rather than have her "go first".
Three words: Admiral James Stockdale.
Has anyone else noticed that SurveyUSA re-surveyed the suspend/debate/no debate question with some movement at the bottom but somewhat similar results.
Debate should be postponed?
Overall- 23%
R- 37%
D- 9%
I-25%
In response to Crisis the canidates should.
Suspend Campaign
16%
R-22
D-10
I-16
If Obama insists on debating while McCain deals with this crisis, Palin should be sent in his place. Isn't it kind of telling that obama's approval of the bill wasn't needed but McCain's was/is paramount.
s.b., you're assuming that McCain's presence in washington has ANY effect on whether the bill passes or not.
McCain wants you to believe that his input is critical to the bill's passage, but he isn't even ON (let alone ranking member of) any of the relevant committees. He hasn't been engaged in any part of the negotiations so far, so he is not up to speed. In fact, by his own admission as of yesterday he hadn't even READ the initial (3 page!) Bush administration proposal. He's going to Washington to try to score political points - not to help. There's no part of this process that can be handled by McCain but not by the other 500+ members of congress.
I'm all for Palin showing up in McCain's place, but given that McCain apparently doesn't even trust her to carry on his campaign while he's away on such "urgent business", there's no way in hell that would happen. Which is another point - this is the person that McCain wants us to believe will be ready to step in to the presidency for McCain at a moment's notice, but she's not even trusted to step in for him at a debate - or even at campaign events!
"Isn't it kind of telling that obama's approval of the bill wasn't needed but McCain's was/is paramount."
If that was remotely true it would be kind of telling. That's a fun game though. Isn't it kind of telling that McCain was born on the 4th of July in the United States but Obama is a Martian? Isn't it kind of telling that McCain single-handedly won The American Revolution, both World Wars, Vietnam, and both US-Iraq wars while Obama eats babies?
@Scott & Tyler:
Maybe Palin is playing dumb to lower everyone's expectations and then she will lay it on thick. Another theory, but I think it's good to consider all the possibilities. She did put on a really good performance at the convention.
Babbit, she read a speech that was written for her at the convention. Any chance she's had to answer actual questions on her own has been a disaster.
@Justin:
I'm ROFL over here. John McCain could pull a tinker toy out of his butt and people would call it patriotic.
@Justin: I don't disagree, but it's better to over-estimate her than under-estimate her.
That's what people said about Bush too, that he was "playing dumb" - but he proved to be quite genuinely dumb.
You didn't salute that tinker toy - you un-American terrorist.
FOCUS GROUPS!
The only thing that matters are the Undecided focus groups.
Anything else is spin and bull****
Focus groups have been found to have as many as 3 out of 9 members of code pink. MSM outlets chose their focus group "undecideds" and most of them are turning out to be anything but.
Um Tyler Palin is trusted all the time as McCain's surrogate. I don't know what you are talking about and she is doing a whole lot better job than the gaffmeister Biden!
Biden's coal gaffe is so serious it could cost Obama the election if McCain wins Penn.
I'd take Palin any day over Biden. He's a bumbling idiot.
By the way, Teddy Rosevelt was elected VP after 2 years as a governor and did just fine.
George Bush is dumb? So dumb he talked the American people into going into a war of his choice. So dumb he's in the midst of talking us into giving the American treasury to Wall Street. So dumb he got the leaders of both parties to show up for a photo op for his chosen successor. So dumb he made us believe that when we torture people it isn't really torture. If he's so dumb, why is it we all salute and say yessir no matter what he asks us to do? if he's dumb, what does that make us?
Potomac Bob : Easy - "Republicans". Do I win a prize?
McCain will show up for the debate on Friday night. Failing to do so would be politically disastrous for him.
Lech
I did not like McCain during the debate on Friday, September 26.
He is very arrogant and overbearing always trying to humiliate the other guy.
I have had bad bosses and good bosses during my hard working days. McCain reminds me of the Dictator Bosses.
I like Obama because he is more professorial, thinking and rational. He is the kind of guy that takes advice from others.
McCain will always act without any advice. He thinks that he is sufficient and has enough intelligence to decide all by himself.
I have a Blog on Young Voters, Race and Demographics :
http://milenials.blogspot.com/
Right Now and after November 5, I will work very hard collecting data on Racial Votes, Ethnic Material of Voters, Demographies and so on.
So that we will understand the New Demographic Tendencies. The importance of Latino Vote ( New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, etc ... ). Feel free to contribute or to give advice to me. I am not self sufficient in intelligence like McCain.
Vicente Duque
McCain values 'going first'. He and Obama both chose the order the debates would be in with McCain choosing the National Security debate to be first. Maybe McCain is trying to bow out of this debate so Palin can steal the spotlight as the first debate. Just a theory.
Posted on September 25, 2008 3:58 PM