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Sen 06: Four Critical Races

Topics: 2006 , The 2006 Race

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There have been some important changes in the Senate polling over the past week. Tennessee now appears to have turned against Democratic Rep. Harold Ford, while Virginia has moved away from Republican Sen. George Allen to a clear tossup. From now on, when people use the term "Tossup" they should show the plot of the Missouri race which lacks trends, bumps, wiggles or hints of what is to come. But the big news of today is the move that has been made in Montana where Democrats were ready to claim (amd many Republicans to concede) Sen. Conrad Burns' seat. President Bush visited and apparently money is now being devoted to this new "firewall" seat. A Burns win would require a Dem sweep of VA, TN and MO to manage a Senate majority. That is obviously a much higher burden than the "2 of 3" wins in these states required with MT in the Dem bag. It is worth noting the Burns is still behind in the trend estimate for MT, but clearly the level of competition has risen, and the odds of a Democratic Senate have shrunk. To make matters worse, in Maryland Democrat Ben Cardin still leads Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele but that lead has been shrinking steadily and while the normally Democratic state would be expected to go Democratic, the trend here and in the Governors race (see here) suggest that the Maryland race cannot be assumed to be over. The good news for Democrats (other than in VA) is that New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez appears to have recovered his lead from Republican Thomas Kean Jr.

So as it now stands, the Dems need 3 of the 4 seats in MT, VA, MO and TN, while holding MD. That may be a tall order, and it makes it likely we won't know control of the Senate until the MT vote is in in the wee hours of Mountain Standard Time. Stay up! It will be fun.

Note: This entry is cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

 

Comments
Furrier:

"It will be fun."

I wholeheartedly agree!

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Furrier:

"It will be fun."

I wholeheartedly agree!

____________________

I've been using loess smoothing and assigning the undecided voters in various ways. As of today (Friday) I think our chance are good (you can see the graphs at dailykos, where I am plf515)

I think we keep all that we've got. Then
take PA, RI and OH (obvious)
VA MO and MT (look good)
and possibly TN and AZ

part of this optimism is based on the idea that undecideds are more likely to go for the challenger. Also, AZ is looking VERY good, with strong indications that Kyl voters are switchig to Pederson.

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Ron Schwartz:

The Washington Post released a poll last week showing Cardin up 11 and O'Malley up 10. A few days later, the Baltimore Sun poll showed Cardin up 6 and O'Malley up 1. The Post sample had the African-American percentage at 25% (based on population?Registered voters?--I don't know.)The Sun poll used a 19% weight to the African American vote, based on the last midterm when the
African American vote was historically low. Since the African American vote is overwhelmingly Democrate (Steele notwithstanding)this explans much of the variance. Who's right?

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John:

I too saw all these polls putting O'Malley and Cardin way ahead as recently as a week ago, and now they are neck and neck with their GOP competitors (not that either race hasn't been close at any point, but neither has been this close until recently). Plus, so many people have cast absentee ballots (including myself) - almost 200,000 in our state, from what I have heard (though I cannot confirm that, so take that with a grain of salt). They say above that we may not know who controls the Senate until the wee hours of the morning when we get the vote from Montana. But I honestly don't see either of Maryland's contests being decided until at least the end of the week.

It would be ironic, with all the buzzing over Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. (from Tennessee), if the first African American senator from the South since Reconstruction wound up instead being Republican Michael Steele. This is simply because nobody has been talking about this race at all until recently! Everyone just took for granted that it would go to the Dems!

(Just for the record, I am an independent, but voted for Cardin and O'Malley.)

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Dave:

In what world and on what planet are you a "conservative?" For one who rails endlessly ad nauseum about people being in the "closet," it seems you are the one in complete denial about your nanny-state supporting, victim-mentality perpetuating, ACLU card-carrying, election-fraud conspiracy indulging, hardcore leftwing nut job. And who cares if Pelosi does take over the house? Even if we lose the senate, neither chamber will have close to the number of votes needed to override the many vetoes they will be handed in the next 2 years. And Iraq continues. Count on it. P.S. I suggest impeaching Bush. I really like the sound of "President Cheney."

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Keith:

Gee Dave, I don't think Cheney can assume the presidency from a jail cell. His ass is about to be handed to him over the bribes he authorized as CEO of Halliburton. And BTW, I think "President Pelosi" has a WONDERFUL ring to it!

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imachong:

Check out Dave, keeper of the republican ghetto. The biggest pork eating gravy slurping spenders of all time are those republicans in congress right now. President Chaney? Oh , yes, Hail Lord Vader! Sure Bush can veto at will, good, we need less legislation from the house of whores. Dave I know you love the sweaty heavy breathing 'rassling coach hastert, and Lord Vader Chaney, but, how about those rolls and rolls of republican pork? Like it? And my, think of all the committees looking into corruption, spying, and torture we'll have. Vote 'em out. Let the show begin! By the way, we need to have mercy on congressional pages; they should be able to pick up a dropped pencil in the rotunda without looking both ways for big smiling, friendly, drooling log cabin bible thumping butt lovers.

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BC:

If all the racees all over the country trend for the Dems except for Tennessee, then we can say it was all about race.

If true that Corker wins because of race how stupid of Tennessee. Corker is just a rubber stamp for Bush. Polls in Tennessee are against Bush and the Iraq War. Hard to believe that Tennessee does not want to give Bush a message and make history by electing Ford as the first black senator elected in the south since reconstruction.

What a sad day for Tennessee!!!!!

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