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Slate Update & New Gallup Polls

Topics: 2006 , Slate Scorecard , The 2006 Race

Our update to the Slate Election Scorecard yesterday focused on six new statewide polls from the USAToday/Gallup partnership.  Their new poll in Rhode Island helped push our assessment of that state into the "lean" Democrat category.  As always, we encourage you to read it all.

Separately, Gallup's Frank Newport posted an analysis on the Gallup site (free to non-subscribers through Wednesday) showing the results of an open-ended question asked on all six surveys of those supporting one of the candidates for Senate:  "Why would you say you are voting for this candidate?"   As is standard survey practice, the interviewers recorded responses verbatim, and Gallup later coded those responses into categories. Newport's analysis shows the results of those questions for each state, broken out by voters for each candidate.

But then it gets more interesting.  I'll let Newport explain:

There are wide varieties of ways in which these data can be approached, and as a result a wide variety of conclusions that can be reached. Gallup Poll editors developed several important points about the reasons behind voters' choices for the Senate. 

But in this situation, we thought some readers might have different approaches or insights, and that as a result it would be of interest to allow readers to suggest their own thoughts on these data, and to share those with us here at The Gallup Poll by responding to Talk to the Editors.

We will read all suggested responses, and post the most telling and insightful here on galluppoll.com next Wednesday.

And speaking of Frank Newport, his contribution to Guest Pollster's Corner last week provoked some interesting questions.  Newport responded in the comments section yesterday.  It's worth a click. 

 

Comments
Pauett G:

Iwas a republican... but there's been SO MANY LIES,Half Truths or shall I say secret going on's with the White house and entire(alot)administration. I don't belive Foley,Hasert,Bush etc.. And there are probly others in this administration w/Unexceptable ... Behaviors,Only difference I see in the Foley / Clinton administration is Clinton was with Lavinski but SHE WAS OF AGE/Foley's escapades with very, young pages , undeage ,uncosenting boy's....Terrible sad..... Shame on You Foley!! and Shame on Hasert!! also BUSH it's his administration!!!!actually I feel hes REPONSIBLE.

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Gary Kilbride:

Thanks to Frank Newport for making data available.

I scanned it quickly but one number that stood out was 14% of Corker supporters picking him because they, "Prefer the More Conservative Candidate." That was significantly higher than the other five states, where the Republican received 4-6% in that category. Interesting because when Corker won the GOP nomination he was considered the most moderate Republican, and therefore less of a partisan difference in the general election against Ford. In fact, many described it as moderate vs. moderate.

But Tennessee is easily the most conservative of the six states, based on presidential partisan index toward the GOP and also the self-identification in the 2004 presidential exit polls. You had 46% labeling themselves conservative in Tennessee, compared to 38% in Virginia and 36% in Missouri. In the three blue states among these senate races, conservative self-identification was in the 20s. That 46% conservative figure in Tennessee should be recognized by posters on progressive sites who condemn Ford as too too moderate and therefore unnaceptable.

Speaking of moderation, I don't think I saw, "Prefer the More Moderate Candidate," show up as a preference rationale in any of the six states.

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