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Sleep Deprived Post-Super Tuesday "Outliers"

Topics: 2008 , Associated Press , Frank Newport , Gary Langer , Kathy Frankovic , Mark Mellman , Mike McDonald , Wall Street Journal

Regular readers should note that I added an update this afternoon with more thoughts on the Response from Frank Newport. Now on to this week's "outliers"....

Al Hunt is betting against the pollsters, big time.

Wall Street Journal "Numbers Guy" drills down (here and more recently here) on why media delegate counts have been so varied.

Bialik also covered "purported pitfalls" in the exit polls and discrepancies among the California pollsters last week.

Brian Schaffner examines how well polls predicted delegates won on Super Tuesday.

Jennifer Agiesta parses the Republican exit poll numbers on evangelicals.

AP is conducting an internal review on why they mistakenly called Missouri for Hillary Clinton on Tuesday.

Kathy Frankovic looks more closely at possible shifts in perceptions of Bill Clinton

Mark Mellman reviews the divisions John McCain creates among Republicans.

David Hlll looks into the Barna Group survey of born again Christians.

Gary Langer reviews all the numbers on turnout and the youth vote.

Michael McDonald has updated his 2008 Presidential Primary Turnout page to include Super Tuesday results.

Kos is not a big fan of Zogby or ARG.

The Week looks at how opinion polls work.

Josh Green's baby doesn't like automated political calls.

And nothing to do with "scientific" polls, but...Chris Bowers reminds me that he is a lot younger than I am.

 

Comments
Ike:

OK, Charles, take a quick nap, and then tell us:

what about your home state of Wisconsin? Inquiring minds want to know about any polls out there!

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Ike, ARG showed Clinton up by 9, but ARG overpolls Clinton a lot.

As for Texas, my associate at Election Inspection breaks it down district by district and forecasts a narrow overall delegate win for Obama. It's a good read if you really want to get into the nitty-gritty.

http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/02/11/there-is-no-such-thing-as-the-texas-primary-part-ii-delegate-predictions/

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