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State Battlegrounds and Home Grounds




























A quickie from Detroit Metro Airport.

Mark Blumenthal reported on an interview with Obama campaign manager David Plouffe yesterday at Pollster. Plouffe discussed the 18 states the Obama campaign sees as their target states, and Mark reported what states those were in his post.

Here we take a quick look at the polling in those states. The chart above is sorted by the Obama minus McCain margin, and shows the 95% confidence interval. The dot size is proportional to electoral vote.

Below I show the status of the states based on our polling categorization of each state.

Time to run for the plane.
















































































 

Comments
boskop:

you can keep your dots...

i'm in paris and was delighted to hear as it broke that john mccain got my memo about sarah palin who i've been raving about on this blog for god knows how long.

talk about sitting on the rock star and handing him a big stomp on his bounce.

what baffles me is how no pundits ever went for this woman and little ole me did. it was soooooo obvious.

anyway: about that lame argument that the dems are busy pumping about no experience cauterizing mccains attacks on obama..

i have this to say: obama is running for president, duh. palin is not. the contest just to reiterate for those who are desperate here, is obama versus mccain.

palin is the experience match for obama.
nuff siad.

hallelujah , amen.

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axt113:

Actually with McCain turning 72 today she is running for prez as well boskop, he is not long for this world so putting someone even more inexperienced and less visionary than Obama in the white house when the prez wil probably croak any day now is a troubling move by the Reps, shows they don't care about the contry only the office

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Charles, what do you think of the Obama campaign not watching Minnesota? Why would they think it is a safe state for them?

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I failed to include a list in the post. Here it is in alphabetical order.

Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

Allen--- Not sure why Minnesota isn't on their list. It hasn't been as close as Wisconsin in the last two elections, so perhaps they think it is safe. But you'll have to ask Mr. Plouffe!

Charles

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brambster:

While I have no hard feelings against Palin, the pick was purely for political, and glaringly hypocritial. Alaska will not decide the election, she is not at all well known, and she has very little experience and serves a state with an exceedingly small population that is as far removed from the economy of the lower 48. Palin was picked for one reason...she was a woman. If Hillary did not finish second in the primaries, Palin would not be the pick. She brings nothing but her gender to the McCain ticket.

I don't think that McCain had any home run hitters in his lineup to pick from, so it's not that big of a deal, but like all of the potentials, she has weaknesses. In this case those weaknesses are exactly the weaknesses that McCain has attacked Obama with most effectively. The only problem is that McCain is 72 and has had 4 bouts of melanoma, and is showing his age, so his VP really needs to be ready to lead, and regardless of whether Palin is or isn't, there are certainly questions about that, and it really weakens McCain's most effective talking point.

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Ciccina:

You mean should McCain drop off, Palin won't be ready to lead on day 1?

lol

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Gary Kilbride:

Regarding the Palin choice, I'm wondering about impact on the Alaska senate race? Obviously it will require a ton of party splitting for Begich to prevail. McCain/Palin will win huge in her home state. A VP bump is massive in a smaller state. The Intrade odds on Alaska have jumped 13.5% today toward the GOP ticket. There's no reason for Obama to worry about Alaska anymore, so it's down to 17 states.

There's been no change on the senate race, Begich trading at roughly 68%.

Begich still has the advantage but I'm skeptical his margin is as high as the polls indicate. As I've mentioned many times, Alaska state polls always overstate the Democrat. Even in 2006 Palin's poll lead dropped significantly heading to election day. I remember low single digits and some polls indicated nearly a dead heat. I wasn't concerned about my Palin wager because I knew the tendency of Alaska polling. Palin won by 7.6%.

Stevens still had a 50% approval rating in a Rasmussen survey I saw several weeks ago. Even if we give up on Alaska in presidential terms, we can't take that senate seat for granted. It needs to be fortified with cash. The positive aspect is Begich has strength in Anchorage, where he's mayor. The numbers are in Anchorage.


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Maybe the Obama campaign should drop Alaska from its list of target states and include Minnesota.

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zotz:

McCain is gambling the nation's future on this attempt to pander to undecided women. I say it is irresponsible and UNPATRIOTIC for him to chose an unqualified VP. Isn't one of his slogans "Country First"? Who was he putting first with this choice? Fortunately I believe in the common sense of most women. This will backfire on McCain big time.

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