Pollster.com

You can do it, PA...I know you can!

They can have FL

Demand internals, Boskop!

For Obama supporters no reason for concern.

A Republican pollster shows a lead in PA and a 3 pt deficit in Florida.

Florida, my friends, has an EXCELLENT chance to go Blue. This is why Obama has been spending so much time there. Internals must be telling him the state is there for the taking.

only 10% of the people want the debate to be postponed

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportUC.aspx?g=54d651a7-a62b-4420-bb32-9dd6b2df8c02

Anyone know where to find this poll? I checked their website to no avail...

This is probably as good as it gets here for McCain. Watch PA #'s dive next week to go with national trend. Let me remind you of the TOTALLITY of the polls in PA:

CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 RV 53 44 Obama +9
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 47 46 Obama +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/21 - 09/21 500 LV 48 45 Obama +3
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/16 - 09/18 625 LV 46 44 Obama +2
Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 600 RV 45 45 Tie
Marist 09/11 - 09/15 535 LV 49 44 Obama +5

@Outside

Kudos to SUSA for polling that so damn fast (big sample size too!). I was worried I'd have to wait 48 hours at least to get a general idea of how much of the public was buying McCain's stunt (answer: about 10%).

My opinion is that the debate should go on as scheduled and be about foreign policy as planned. If we make it the domestic policy debate, the entire debate will be on this particular economic crisis, and there are definitely plenty of other domestic issues that need debating.

So to recap all the key polls today:
National
ABC/Wapo: O+9
Rasmussen: O+2
R2K: O+4
Gallup: O+3
Diageo: O+5
Fox:O+6

Nevada
NewsWest: O+2

Michican
CNN: O+5
Some poll no one has heard of: M+3

Colorado
Insider: O+9
CNN: O+4
Rasmussen: O+3

Penn
CNN: O+9
SV: O+1

Florida
SV: M+3

Did I Miss Any?

SurveyUSA. 9/24. Adults. MoE 3.2% (No trend lines)

The first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama is scheduled to take place in two days. Should the debate be held as scheduled? Should the debate be held, but the format changed to focus on the economy? Or, should the debate be postponed?

Hold as scheduled 50
Hold with focus on economy 36
Postpone 10

Is the right response to the turmoil on Wall Street to suspend the campaigns for president? To continue the campaigns as though there is no crisis? Or, to re-focus the campaigns with a unique emphasis on the turmoil on Wall Street?

Suspend 14
Continue 31
Refocus the campaign 48

If Friday's presidential debate does not take place, would that be good for America? Bad for America? Or would it make no difference?

Good for America 14
Bad for America 46
No difference 35

McCain has shown once again that he is a true maverick.

The MSM have noclue what to do with him. The media is supposed to dictate and then predict what will be.

You show em McCain

The "R" next to Strategic Vision stands for Republican. Take a look at this poll 4 years ago in PA:

Strategic Vision (R) | 9/27-9/29 801 LV 3.0 Bush 48 Kerry 45, Bush +3

Strategic Vision (R) | 9/13-9/15 801 LV 3.0 Bush 49 Kerry 44, Bush +5

See?

Indeed, Obama is at the highest of Kerry's lead with Strategic Vision in PA back in 2004:

Strategic Vision (R) | 10/29-31 801 LV 3.0
Bush 46 Kerry 47 - Kerry +1

Strategic Vision (R) | 10/25-27 801 LV 3.0
Bush 48 Kerry 48 - TIE

Strategic Vision (R) | 10/17-19 801 LV 3.0
Bush 46 Kerry 47 - Kerry +1

Strategic Vision (R) | 10/9-10/11 801 LV 3.0 Bush 46 Kerry 45 Bush +1

Strategic Vision (R) | 9/27-9/29 801 LV 3.0 Bush 48 Kerry 45 Bush +3

Strategic Vision (R) | 9/13-9/15 801 LV 3.0 Bush 49 Kerry 44 Bush +5

Strategic Vision (R) | 8/28-8/30 801 LV 3.0 Bush 47 Kerry 45 Bush +2

See how hard is to be a Democrat and be up by a decent margin in Strategic Vision(R)?

So what's up with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, and to a certain extent NH polls. They are all over the place. Whereas Virginia, NC, Ohio, Florida all the polls show a close race.

Something really strange is going on in these states with certain pollsters. I am apt to believe that the race is close in these states as well and that polls that show this are believable.

Polls that show Obama up by 10, or 9 or even 7 in any of these states just seem a little odd.

These polls of course from Strategic Vision seem completely believable for heavily contested states.

HaloFan,

"McCain has shown once again that he is a true maverick"

A true Maverick? He looks like a chicken to me. The first thing a leader does is to come foward before his or her people, explain the situation, and lay out the plan to solve it. Hello...the majority of Americans don't have an idea as to what is the government going to do with $700B of our money. We deserve explanations sir...the problem is that McCain can't talk about the economy, and how to avoid the #1 issue during a debate?

McCain's move today shows true leadership. The Democrats think it is a stunt because all they understand is stunts. They never do anything from the heart.

Wow, what a day. Lots of political chess. Except John Mccain seems like he can only handle one thing at a time. Does he know he is going to be in charge of every single part of the government in the next 40 days???? It takes a mind that can do multiple things at the same time!! Just makes me mad when every time there is an issue, Tucker Bounds spouts off from his pompous arrogant mouth about BO. Tucker, Nice hair! Loser.

Wow, what a day. Lots of political chess. Except John Mccain seems like he can only handle one thing at a time. Does he know he is going to be in charge of every single part of the government in the next 40 days???? It takes a mind that can do multiple things at the same time!! Just makes me mad when every time there is an issue, Tucker Bounds spouts off from his pompous arrogant mouth about BO. Tucker, Nice hair! Loser.

The first thing a leader does is to come foward before his or her people, explain the situation, and lay out the plan to solve it. Hello...the majority of Americans don't have an idea as to what is the government going to do with $700B of our money. We deserve explanations sir...the problem is that McCain can't talk about the economy, and how to avoid the #1 issue when facing the American people?

We choose presidents no appoint dictators. We deserve being told what the government is planning on doing with OUR $700B. Bush will leave on January but the debt is not going away my friend.

Got Boomaid?

Here is to true leadership that 10% of America agrees with:

SurveyUSA. 9/24. Adults. MoE 3.2% (No trend lines)

The first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama is scheduled to take place in two days. Should the debate be held as scheduled? Should the debate be held, but the format changed to focus on the economy? Or, should the debate be postponed?

Hold as scheduled 50
Hold with focus on economy 36
Postpone 10

Is the right response to the turmoil on Wall Street to suspend the campaigns for president? To continue the campaigns as though there is no crisis? Or, to re-focus the campaigns with a unique emphasis on the turmoil on Wall Street?

Suspend 14
Continue 31
Refocus the campaign 48

If Friday's presidential debate does not take place, would that be good for America? Bad for America? Or would it make no difference?

Good for America 14
Bad for America 46
No difference 35

@carl29

Nah dude, you just trust the former CEO of Goldman Sachs with it and close your eyes and click your heels together three times!

Halo
Nobody ever has a clue about what to do with McCain. That's why he inspires so much confidence in people who don't have a clue about what's going on.

@Boomshak

You are FOS, These polls aren't on MSM, simple as that, he has thrown another hail mary and put politics in front of an orderly economic solution. He needed to stop Obama's Big Mo.

Any thing he wants to do, he doesn't have to be live in Washington to do. He's being beat up as he wants to fire the head of the SEC, The Us Economy is fundamentally sound. Another desperate move!

"They never do anything from the heart."

That is exactly right. They don't know what honor looks like. McCain has been a Maverick bucking the system and his party.

McCain would rather lose and election and fix our economy.

Jesus, is it every single reponse going to be about how he is a "maverick"? McCain would win the election and lose our economy!

I wonder if he is going to sit down with Phil Grahm and Carly Fiorina as a true maverick should to fix this... :)

Jesus, is every single reponse going to be about how he is a "maverick"? McCain would win the election and lose our economy!

Carly "Role Model" Fiorina
Phil "The Deregulator" Gramm
Douglas "Blackberry Inventor" Holtz-Eakin

Youth voting is going to carry PA significantly over any of these margins. The Obama people are extremely active in all the schools registering students (even out-of-state students can vote) and getting them to mail absentee ballots immediately. I have not seen a single McCain activist in any of the schools here.

Obama and McCain spoke, prior to McCain's announcement, to discuss a joint statement. If this is not a political stunt, and McCain is putting "country first", then why didn't he ask Obama to join him and do this in a bipartisan way? My guess is because McCain is playing politics. Being a maverick has nothing to do with it.

Thats because they suspended their campaign... :)

marc

You think McCain's handlers think he's going to lose points for this move? No way. They're hoping he'll be hanging around to take credit if something passes while Obama's not there.
McCain's just hot doggin' for talking points.

Every move he makes now is a hail Mary. Honor was quite a while back.

"Lots of political chess. Except John Mccain seems like he can only handle one thing at a time. "

and Oama can't even handle one.

so far no one knows if obama is for or against limiting CEO pay or bonuses or golden chutes (McCain is for it)
No one knows if obama if for or against the bailout , the size of the bail out (McCain says its's too big)
No one knows if Obama wants Home protection added in (McCain does)

Outside of some extremely general comments, Obama isn't invovled in the Bailout conversation,,, Yet, he's RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT.

Obama can't handle one thing at a time, yet alone 2

MORE NEWS FROM NPR BATTLEGROUND POLL:

Democratic party advantage shrinks to just 2 points in battlegtound states! (Compare this to the 10 point bs from Gallup):

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94973392

"Since the polling team last surveyed likely voters in August, a lot has changed. The number of battleground states has shrunk — from 19 to 14 — as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and Montana returned to their Republican roots.

In August, Obama led in the 14 states by 3 points. Now McCain leads in those states by 2, and the underlying political landscape has shifted a bit as well.

In August, by a 7-point margin, more voters identified themselves as Democrats. Now, in the battleground states, the Democratic advantage in party identification has shrunk to 2 points."

7 PA polls in a row (including this partisan one) have shown Obama with the lead there. Obama has just increased his ad spending in PA (to match McCain's ad spending there). Michelle Obama and Jill Biden visited the state today. Joe Biden visits the state tomorrow and Friday. Biden tours the state with Hillary in October.

@Boomshak

New Mexico and Iowa were Red States and are now Blue States.

Any Blue States remotely near being Red?

More Red states going Blue?

You are deluding yourself!

tybo,

everyone here, including boomshak, knows that Obama's positions on these issues have been clearly outlined several times this week.

Limiting CEO pay? Yes, it was item 2 in his 6 item list from SUNDAY.

For or against the bailout? Yes, if it adopts his tenets. McCain? was strongly against it, before he was for it, before he is now somewhat kindof sortof ish against it.

Home protection? Absolutely -- he wants to recoup any gains and give it back to the governement, specifically the HOPE fund.

Pay attention dude. Seriously, inaccurate attacks add nothing to our discourse.

...whats next the suspension of the election...so we can be "Bushed" for another year... I think democrats are missing a golden opportunity here... when in doubt blame Bush

boomshat rambled...
"Democratic party advantage shrinks to just 2 points in battlegtound states! (Compare this to the 10 point bs from Gallup)"

Battleground states are those that are being tightly contested.

Battleground states are states such as:
Virginia (heavily Republican in the past)
North Carolina (heavily Republican in the past)
Indiana (heavily Republican in the past)
Colorado (heavily Republican in the past)
Ohio (heavily Republican in the past)

And the states that dropped out?
Georgia (heavily Republican)
Alaska (heavily Republican and Independent)
North Dakota (heavily Republican)
Montana (heavily Republican)
(You didn't see that comment that the above states '. . . returned to their Republican roots' did you.)

Get the picture? When the voter ID in HEAVILY Republican states narrows to show a small Democratic ID, it means problems for the R candidate.

The Gallup NATIONAL poll includes voters from 50 states plus DC. Battleground states do not include 50 states plus DC.

It would appear that boomshat has a bit of a problem in reading comprehension.

The 2 most recent right-leaning partisan polls of FL show McCain ahead there by an average of 4%; the 2 most recent non-partisan polls of FL show Obama ahead there by an average of 0.5%. All 4 polls were taken before Obama's campaign event in the Tampa area today.

FL is one of 4 states in which Obama has just increased his ad spending. See:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/24/obama_ramps_up_ad_spending.html

Michelle Obama and Jill Biden campaign in FL on Saturday; Bill Clinton campaigns there on Monday.

I wonder how you republicans would be acting if obama pulled this stunt... theyd be crying about obamas inexperience finally showing itself and so on and so on. look into your minds republicans, and be honest with yourselves... this is a clever political move, but a political move none the less, lacking in any real sincerity. its about as honest as a photo op.

i like what obama had to say about it. he will do whatever he can to help, but right now people need reassurance that the person being elected in 40 days is ready for THAT job. as he said, being the president means dealing with more than one thing at once, no matter how urgent that one thing might be. also, now more than during any other point of this election, people need to know these candidates well to make an informed decision.

Best line yet from Barney Frank: "It's the longest Hail Mary pass in the history of either football or Marys."

I live in Pa and I really don't think it could go red in this election. The reason why is that all these polls are LV polls and I fell like they undersample Philladelphia county (the 6th largest city in the nation). You only need to consider what happened in the primary election here where Hillary won almost all of the counties (some by a rather large margin)leaving OB with maybe three. But he still made a decent showing with 46%.

McCain will do a lot worse in Philladelphia than Hillary did. His strong holds are rural, southwestern Pa where he only hold a 10pt lead over Obama. Bush had a 13pt lead there at the same time in the 2004 election.

I live in Montgomery county which seemed fairly split in 2004 but now there's a McCain sign for every 4 or 5 Obama signs (not an exact science, I know, but still..) The few people that I know from western pa didn't seem upset by his gun/god cmnts. They even thought that they were true and insightfull.

McCain has shown once again that he is willing to put country first before politics..unlike that good-for-nothing, JFK wannabe!

The national polls are pretty much the same..showing Obambi with a 2-3% advantage. No, I don't believe that Washington Post poll..who does? Yeah, I know..only the ObamaBots!

Obambi should be concerned about PA. As PA goes, so does OH. If Obambi loses PA..it won't matter if he steals CO and VA..HE WILL BE DONE!

imsomdude

You need to speak for yourself! I live in PA myself (The Lehigh Valley) and I have to tell you that we didn't appreciate Obambo's comments! In my neighborhood there are hundreds of McCain/Palin signs. Obama may take Philly, just like he did against Hillary..but with Sarah Palin, McCain will take the Suburbs, as well as those rural small towns where people didn't appreciate the "bitter" comments.

So, keep fooling yourself and wishing for an Obama victory here in PA. When the 527's and the NRA are done reminding PA residents of Rev. Wright and "bittergate", he'll be lucky if he cracks 45% of the vote!

Republicans make me laugh. Whenever they are in a tight spot, they talk about how patriotic they are compared to democrats. It worked in 2004 when made John Kerry to be someone who is bad for the country. We have done real well the last 4 years. Won't work this time I'm affraid

sotonightthatimightsee

oh and im sure that before the bittergate comments you were right there with obama! and im also sure that you were a big kerry supporter when he took PA. i bet you predicted that would happen right...

face it, your republican town isnt most of PA... as indicated by...oh i dont know... every PA poll since the campaigns began. so whos fooling themselves?

so heres the strategy. you say that you dont care about politics, and then you spend the rest of the day talking about why that makes you the best candidate to be president. thats not being political at all... are you republicans really falling for this or are you so in love with your party hat whatever they do youll just play along! look we dont have to argue over this being unethical. its a clever political move, but thats just it... its a POLITICAL move, and a desperate one at that. if it wasnt a political move, he might have mentioned that obama actually contacted HIM about the bipartisan move, and he could have actually had a joint press conference with obama. instead he stood up there and played super senator. mccain is such a funny guy!

Republican polling firm ... does anyone really think Pennsylvania's going red? If this was still the McCain of 2000, maybe. But not the McCain of 2008.

It's Boom****. HaHa.

Obama will not carry FL, but they will make McCain sweat there, and make him have to spend way more $$ and time than he was hoping to. Governor Crist has been a huge McCain cheerleader, even during the early primaries, and he's very popular. Just the fact that it's so close in FL now is a big problem for McCain. The polls were much wider when the Obama's a secret Muslim thing was bouncing around the internet and being whispered in the Jewish community here. But that's fading, and most (but not all) of the disgruntled Hillary voters are getting onboard now.. hence the close #s. McCain was/is counting on them.

If it were me: I would only average Battleground and Rasmussen together with Pew when their polls come out. Consistently only Battleground and Ras have called the race correctly, and Battleground has called 3 out of the last four on the nose, including the last won where they got the percentage and the tenth percentage correct which is astonishing. That would mean that Obama has a 1.5% margin right now, not great, as if this were an attack on America like 9-11 Mac would be up by 7-10 pts. If this is the best Obama can do in the area of economics the dems perceived strength, I can't see how any dem sees this as good news.

@kkpollster

So, basically you are HOPING for a terrorist attack so that your guy can win?!?!
How pathetic.

Everyone I know here in FL is planning to vote for McCain/Palin. Thank God! I don't want to live in the Socialist country envisioned by Obama. How come these pollsters never call *me*?