Pollster.com

Tight races, but it looks more likely that Obama will win in Michigan, while New Hampshire will go down to the wire (but hopefully won't matter in the end).

The problem for McCain in NH is he only has $84 million. As places like NC and IN com einto play, he needs to decide where to spend his money. 1/3 of NH is in the Massachuset market. A good 10-15% are in VT and ME. That's alot of wasted add money spent in those solid blue states. If he isn't ahead he can't afford it in another month. Obama meanwhile will still swamp NH with ads. NH will be close for about 2-3 more weeks then McCain will have to pull out, unless he gets a HUGE, I repeat HUGE momentum changer.

Michigan is certainly an important state, one of the Kerry states I worry most about Obama losing.

If he can continue shoring up those Kerry states over the next couple of weeks he can focus squarely on Florida, Ohio, VA, CO, NV, NC, even Indiana.

The problem for McCain in NH is he only has $84 million. As places like NC and IN come into play, he needs to decide where to spend his money. 1/3 of NH is in the Massachusett's market. A good 10-15% are in VT's and ME's. That's a lot of wasted ad money spent in those solid blue states. If he isn't ahead he can't afford it in another month. Obama meanwhile will still swamp NH with ads. NH will be close for about 2-3 more weeks then McCain will have to pull out, unless he gets a HUGE, I repeat HUGE momentum changer. NH only has 4 electoral votes, he needs more then that to win.

(sorry about the bad typing above, hit the wrong button)

There is another poll out in MI today (Detroit Free Press) Obama 51% and McCain 38%. Splitting the difference between this and that poll sounds about right.

New polls in MO and FL show McCain with +1 in each. Not a good sign for him.

New polls not yet listed here:

Missouri: McCain +1% , 2 polls.
(Susa - see their website)
(Research 2000 - listed on RCP)

Florida: MCain 1%
(Rasmussen)

Both states are now tighter than seen recently. Rasmussen notes in the commentray that McCain's advantage has slipped from 5% just a few days ago. It also notes that Obama's favourability has INCREASED by 5% during that period.

McC's stunt to look Presidential has backfired - Obama is the one who has come out looking better.

The Detroit Free Press poll was conducted by Ann Selzer. See this post by Nate Silver:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann-selzer-on-youth-minority-turnout.html

As interesting as these polls are they were taken before the stunt of the McCain campaign "suspension" (yes, we all know it was a stunt. Even 80% of right wing commentators think so, although many of them think it was a smart stunt) the circus of the bailout talks, and the questionnable role McCain is taking in the negotiations.

It will be next week before we see where the race really is (there may have even been a debate by then!).

The leap in Obama's favourability shown by Rasmussen in Florida is corroborated by Friday's Research 2000 daily tracker: this shows Obama's net favourability at 24% - the highest yet.

This is bad news for McC - survey after survey show that a disproportionate share of his vote is coming from guys who do not like him, but are simply voting against Obama. If BO can continue to break down this resistance,McCain's support will shrink still further.

Those MO and FL polls are bad new for McCain.

I'd like to see some confirmation on MO; the last polls were there were taken in a couple weeks ago and showed a McCain with a +4/+5 lead. Also R2000 generally has been more favorable to Obama than other pollsters; their July poll showed Obama up by 5, when the other pollsters were showing a significant McCain lead.

FL sounds about right. From the aggregate pollster data, McCain has a small lead. Only two polls since July (both Mason-Dixon polls) have shown Obama leads; the rest show McCain leads.

This is not good news for McCain. Right now, he does not have a lead in ANY of the Kerry states. MI, PA, and NH remain close, but Obama is still ahead.

Further, IA, NM, and CO all seem to be going Obama as well. All were Bush states in 2004.

Suddenly, the Electoral Map has McCain onthe defensive. He is now in danger of losing his slim leads in VA, NC, FL, and my own IN. Now we see MO is down to 1%. These states are McCain's firewall and he cannot afford to lose any of them. Couple this with Obama's money advantage and mcCain will have to make some tough decisions soon.

Does he abandon MI and MN to try to hold the firewall. Does he bother to spend money to try to hold NH? How much longer can he afford to ignore Indiana?

Not good signs.

Gore lost NH in 2000. ( That was what really killed him). Kerry barely won it in 2004 even though he is from neighboring MA. There is a myth that the increase in population in southern NH helps the democrats, but most of those refugees from MA are very conservative. ( Look at the results from Salem NH in 2004). Actually Obama is doing much better in Western NH along the CT river.

I see Obama ekeing this out. His organization is very strong and this will be a democratic year in NH with the economic woes. Shaheen is going to smoke Sununu. I don't think the residual affection NH voters have for the "maverick" McCain is enough to save him.

And NH is critical. If Obama holds all other Kerry staes and picks up IA,NM and CO as seems likely, we would have a 269-269 split if NH flips to red. Of course if the current polling trends continue Obama might be looking at an electoral landslide, but there is no way I'm counting on that. This year has been way too whacky.

I think a 1% Obama wins sounds just about right.

Friday Rasmussen OBAMA up 5%!

@Hoosier

To add to McCain's worries is that a firewall for these states is not enough. He has to win a Kerry state since Obama seems to have IA, NM and CO. So he has to defend more states and still pick up a state. Not good news at all.

I wonder how deep the plunge in McCain's numbers will be when the fog starts lifting over 1) his tampering with the essentially brokered bailout deal, riling the House Republicans to splinter demanding more deregulation (gotta admire those cajones!) and capital gains tax cuts and 2) his campaign witness tampering in Palin's troopergate investigation.

This election was over last Monday. Now it's just more humiliation piling on. Seeing this campaign implode is poetic justice in away, a small compensation for the last 8 years of Cheney/W

@BOOMFAIL

Yikes! I think we are seeing a trend here. Maybe McCain will announce today that he will challenge Obama to a no holds barred Texas Cage Match.

Amen MNLatteLiberal!

My money's on McCain showing up tonight for the debate even without a bailout agreement. He has to or this thing could get SO out of hand that Texas turns Blue. (I'm really not that unrealistic btw!) It really is poetic justice.
Squirm Baby Squirm

Hated Liberal Pollster Rasmusen has race at
O 50
M 45

5 point lead in the Rasmussen! Wow.

Ras Daily O 50% M 45% Ouch

Rasmussen Tracking:

Obama 50%
McCain 45%.

http://www.hakubi.us/simplyamerican/data/capsi/2004election_by_iq.png

coincidence or correlation?

@Boomshak, TYBO

It looks like a lot of other folks sees it for what it is:
"Friday, September 26, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is Obama’s biggest lead since his convention bounce peaked with a six-point advantage. In fact, on only two days since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June has Obama enjoyed a lead bigger than he has today"

Gold - I love the timing of those 5 posts :D

The NPR Battleground state poll which shows McCain up by 2% today uses a 2% party ID advantage to the Dems which is crazy. With that being said it realy means Obama has a solid 3 -5 % lead.

In the White House meeting that McCain called for he said nothing for 40 minutes; when ultraconservative repubs presented their so-called alt. plan McCain mumbled a few things about concerns. Obama then asked Secretary Paulson if this alt plan (calling for, among other things LESS regulation and LOWER TAXES in banking and investment communities) was workable; he said it wasn't McCain was asked whether he supported it; he wouldn't say one way or the other;

This is McCain style leadership I suppose.

@decided
Yup. Also take a look at the higher IQ Red states, and how those are the ones most likely to switch for Obama this time around. Very telling!
http://www.hakubi.us/simplyamerican/data/capsi/2004election_by_iq.png

I expect Ras (basically a fair and accurate pollster with small repub bias)to be re-weighting once again next week. Look for a number in the mid 6s, though the true number is more like 8.
That's fine. We know where Ras stands and that it's consistent. When Ras shows McCain down by 5 this late in the game with a debate possibly turning into an Obama town meeting on national TV (with the vast majority giving McCain no pass at all for showing up (just a collective FAIL)I don't see a very good trend

McCain's two roads now....fight the bailout plan tooth and nail with a cadre of conservative repubs and look truly Maverick and maybe truly insane and unpresidential and scary at the same time (huge risk, huge rewards) or work diligently to bring conservative repubs around to supporting the House-Senate conference framework hammered out by the banking experts on both sides of the aisle.

His choices have always been on the risk side. Will he risk another Great Depression to give himself a new shot at being a true maverick populist?

stay tuned

New Rassmussen in FL and MO has McCain up by 1 in each.. FL we know is getting tight.. but MO now too? Could be unraveling here quickly.. Also on FL. I have a good friend who's doing phone outreach to for the Obama campaign. Out of some 500 "swing" voters, a good 70% or so or either leaning to or have decided on Obama. Now that could change, and I still maintain that Crist and the GOP FL legislature deliver FL to McCain one way or another. But I'd say FL is solid yellow from here on in.

I think that the public sees McCain's behavior this week as eratic not "courageous". The fact that he apparently is undecided about the debate tonight increases the public's sceptical view of his behavior.

BTW, Bill Clinton's support of McCain is increasingly being seen as a form of revenge against Obama. Both Clinton and McCain are being seen as emotionally unstable in a crisis situation.

@vmval1:

Gold - I love the timing of those 5 posts :D

It's called an adrenaline rush

also SUSA has the race down to 2 points in MO.
Need to watch the polls there for any confirmation that things are becoming fluid; the show me state may finally be showing some movement after being so rock solid for the past few months

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/09/26/battle-lines-clearly-drawn-in-missouri-where-mccain-can-see-just-who-to-woo-to-win-11-electoral-votes/

@BOOMFAIL:

@decided
Yup. Also take a look at the higher IQ Red states, and how those are the ones most likely to switch for Obama this time around. Very telling!
http://www.hakubi.us/simplyamerican/data/capsi/2004election_by_iq.png

I think our nation will be more intelligent this time.

Just saw the Ras MO result....WOW is all I can say

do you mean OH? I don't see MO on Ras site

7 point lead in the Hotline poll.

I think the Cancer ad is going to work out nicely
Remember folks its ONLY the McCain ad that is lowlife.. everything Barry Obama does is accwptable. Ask Chris Mathews

Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 and hitting the 50% mark. There seems to be signs of intelligence out there.

TR in VA

Senator Obama did not run that ad. I think it was an independent group sort of like those scumbags at the NRA.

@BoomFail

I need to mock you boomfail....where are you?

Please. Come out and play.

Your foolish view of math and data needs to be shown again.

That's FUZZY math to you mysticlaker.
Spin Baby Spin

@BoomFail

HA!HA!

We need to have a Boom cage match...

One or 2 more polls within the MOE and Missouri turns yellow. May be happening in some other light red states too. Expect some yellows to start turning blue shortly as well. Getting a heads up on some very interesting polls. (well, nauseating if you're a Republican).

Ras is supposed to releasing new VA results at noon today. That should be very interesting, as he had McCain up by two in his Monday poll.

IT'S A WEIRD WORLD:

In the past week, Rasmussen (5.5% dem party advantage) has had O+5. Meanwhile, Gallup (10% dem party advantage) has had O-6.

This is EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE of what one would expect.

Battleground is out with McCain +2, and Gallup will likely show McCain +1 today as just overflow from his big move yesterday.

So the nation's top polls are moving in opposite directions. Truly strange.

What fun!

P.S., It's funny how you Obamanuts ignore Rasmussen when he doesn't show you ahead and praise Gallup as the only true pollster.

Then when Gallup show syour guy collapsing 6 points in one week and Rasmussen shows him ahead, now Rasmussen is God. Lol.

I think the take-away from all this is that it is just weird that the top polls totally contradict at this point.

Can't wait for Rass' VA poll today.

It's comical now that the conservative House Republicans are going to try and sound populist now, "Wall Street must pay for this, not Main Street" but they are want less regulation and a corporate tax cut. Will Americans be able to see through this fake populism? And come one cats, is there a crisis or isn't there?

As for Selzer's polling and 538's analysis... I think it's bogus that the youth vote is underweighted. Supposedly Selzer weights the youth vote more and that's why Obama looks to have a bigger lead in her polls. I say malarky. Young people don't vote. They just don't. No election has proved that they do. Every time there's an election the supposed youth vote groundswell is touted and every time it never materializes. It's like the myth of some supposed cell phone advantage for Obama.

When you look at 538's analysis, remember that he is a HARD CORE Obama supporter. So take with a grain of salt.

Here's another odd thing:

Rasmussen is saying that 34% of the electorate is Republican. DailyKos is saying that 26% is, an 8 point difference.

Yet both show the same lead today for Obama. Who knows, what that means, its just weird.

*Side Note: If you read Rasmussen's explanation of this poll, he is positively giddy over the result. Everyone say he is a Republican. Who knows?

Nick,

I too am skeptical of the claims of the "secret" youth vote and uncounted cell phone voters that people conjure up when they don't like the polling results. Or the ever popular "there are a lot of college students in that will surely tip the balance."

However, youth turnout did increase dramatically in the Dem primary this year. So you can't accurately say that the youth vote never materializes. And Selzer did nail the Iowa caucuses.

Hey, what time is the debate supposed to be (Eastern Time)?

HEY HEY HEY _ STOP THIS NONESENSE!!! NOTHING HAS BEEN WON YET. NOT ONE STATE - CERTAINLY NOT THIS ELECTION. STOP POSTING AND START PLANNING ON MAKING PHONE CALLS AND GOING DOOR TO DOOR.

OBAMA NEEDS VOLUNTEERS
ELECTION PROTECTION NEEDS VOLUNTEERS
THIS COUNTRY IS IN DESPERATE NEED OF EDUCATED POLL WORKERS

ARE YOU ALL SOOO DAMN STUPID TO FORGET THE LAST 2 ELECTIONS? ARE YOU GOING TO LET THEM STEAL THIS THING? NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT OUR HEADS DON AND SPRINT TO THE FINISH LINE - VOLUNTEER - REACH OUT - MAKE A DIFFERENCE -

You can blow out a candle, but you can't put out a fire, once the flames begin to catch, the wind will blow them higher...

Even the base thinks McCain is coming unglued!

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/26/huckabee-calls-mccain-debate-ploy-a-huge-mistake/

@JCK, ok fair enough. But I had in mind general elections. It's always touted, never materializes. I also agree that Selzer nailed Iowa but that's not enough to convince me that it's the end all be all of pollsters like 538 seems to think.

@Boom:

Morning. You're from NC right? Please give me a a measured BIpartisan answer on this question...

Does it feel like Obama could win the state (as much as you wouldn't like it). Or are the polls just blowing smoke up our ass... Just wondering what the perspective is like on the ground over there.

Nick,

I think it did materialize somewhat in 2004, but the huge evangelical turnout neutralized the any advantage.

Kerry got 9 million more votes than Gore did in 2000, but still managed to lose the popular vote by 3 million.

@vmval1

It's scheduled to take place at 9PM Easter time

I heart Huckabees

Thanks Indy.

@JCK, I understand, but again, it's always touted as the thing that will make a Democrat tip it and win. Never materializes. I just think it's a big mistake to rely on that in your polling and to also rely on that as a strategy to win. I would hope that that is not Obama's strategy. Sure go after them, but don't stake your candidacy on them.

Nick

Agreed there. Relying on magical cell-phone-only voters when you're down in the polls is a loser's strategy.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/Blotter/Story?id=5891663&page=2

"Goldman Sachs bankers are also the number one contributors to the Barack Obama presidential campaign, giving $691,930 to his campaign in this cycle, according to the records.

John McCain's campaign has received substantially less from Goldman Sachs employees, $208,395, although they are, as a group, his fourth largest contributor.

In the 2008 election cycle, Goldman Sachs bankers have come up with $4.8 million in contributions to federal candidates, according to the records. 72 per cent of Goldman's money this year has gone to Democratic candidates and the national party, the majority party in Congress.

"I too am skeptical of the claims of the "secret" youth vote and uncounted cell phone voters that people conjure up when they don't like the polling results."

What secret? Fivethirtyeight says that youth turnout increased by 52% in the primaries. Either that fact is true or false. Is it realistic to assume that voter demographics will be the same as 2004?

@vmval1:
"@Boom:

Morning. You're from NC right? Please give me a a measured BIpartisan answer on this question...

Does it feel like Obama could win the state (as much as you wouldn't like it). Or are the polls just blowing smoke up our ass... Just wondering what the perspective is like on the ground over there."

Well, it's hard to say. Here in Raleigh anyway, Obama is running constant radio ads and McCain is running none.

NC is an odd mix of college towns, cosmopolitan cities and hicksville. I would probably guess that as the polls show, it is close.

boomshak 538 may support Obama but he's been very fair... When McCain had great momentum coming out of the convention his "system" had Obama down in the popular vote, % chance of winning the election, and in the electoral college. His formula is based on a # of factors, a computer program that has served him VERY well in the past, not based on WHO he supports. Nice try though.

These two polls tell the same story with both well within sampling error. No previous Strategic Vision polls in these states for comparison.

Michigan is really close with Obama at +3 (Kerry won by 3.4% and Gore by 5.2%). ......as well as New Hampshire with Obama at +1 (Kerry won by 1.3% and Bush won by 1.3%).

Per Rasumussen Report on OH:

"McCain is supported by 88% of Republicans and has a modest advantage among unaffiliated voters. Obama wins the vote from 90% of Democrats."

Unity problem? I think not;)

@macsuk:
"Even the base thinks McCain is coming unglued!"

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/26/huckabee-calls-mccain-debate-ploy-a-huge-mistake/

You can always count on Huckabee to say something idiotic at the worst possble moment. All Huckabee cares about is Huckabee.

The Gallop polling is confusing. I still tend to look at averages over several reputable pollsters. When you take a step back and look at the big picture it really helps. So when the last 10 national polls show Obama tied or ahead up to 9 points, then BATTLEGROUND shows McCain up two, I wouldn't DISCOUNT their poll, but I'd aaverage it all in. In 2005 RealClearPolitics.com had Bush with around a 2% polling average, and let the results of that election speak for themselves. Obama is currently up 3.4% on an average of all polls.

RCP Average 09/18 - 09/25 -- 48.0 44.3 Obama +3.7
Rasmussen Tracking 09/23 - 09/25 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/23 - 09/25 912 RV 49 42 Obama +7
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/21 - 09/25 1000 LV 46 48 McCain +2
Gallup Tracking 09/22 - 09/24 2731 RV 46 46 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 09/21 - 09/24 LV 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 09/22 - 09/23 900 RV 45 39 Obama +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/19 - 09/22 1085 RV 48 46 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 09/19 - 09/22 780 LV 52 43 Obama +9
LA Times/Bloomberg 09/19 - 09/22 838 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Ipsos-McClatchy 09/18 - 09/22 923 RV 44 43 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 09/19 - 09/21 697 LV 51 47 Obama +4

@NW Patrick:

No doubt lots of good news for Obama in those latest Rasmussen reports. But you have to understand that people aren't FOR Obama's economic plans (95% probably have no idea what they are if you asked them), they are just AGAINST Bush's plans.

But also keep in mind (that for whatever reason), the major polls in this country, Gallup and Rasmussen, seem to be moving in opposite directions.

it is truly odd.

P.S., Funny how many libs in here are now disciples of Rasmussen, lol.

zotz,

If you read, I agree there's evidence that "this time will be different." But I also agree with Nick, in that the exact same arguments were used four years ago to dismiss polls unfavorable to Kerry, which, by and large, turned out to be correct in projecting his loss.

Pollsters, in general, are certainly aware of increased youth turnout in the primary, and I think one would be in error to assume that all pollster save Selzer are simply ignoring this in their likely voter models.

The problem is not with projecting increased youth turnout per se, but that so many like to dismiss polls whose results they do not like by arguing (w/o providing any evidence whatsoever) that the poll is wrong b/c of higher than expected youth turnout.

Is there some reason why this site isn't posting very many of the polls? They have them on the sidebar but not as a post.

boomshak

So your saying Huckabee is to McCain what Clinton is to Obama. If you do it is the first thing we have ever agreed on.

REPORT: If McCain does not come by law there will be no debate; 'illegal contribution'...

http://www.newsweek.com/id/40211#?l=1785302026&t=1816384054&

@marctx. Don't believe the hype bro, McCain will be there like a good student. There will be a 'break thru' in 'negotiations' today on the Hill and he'll 'reluctantly' show up for the debate and then proceed to shred Obama (the perception will be that he shreds Obama because now the focus is all on how McCain didn't want to debate).

McCain was always going to be at the debate. He was just feeling starved for attention.

marctx be proud your candidate is AFRAID to debate. If he loses tonight, you haven't seen ANYTHING yet in the polls. Maybe they can PUT OFF the Palin debate? I can assure you after watching the soccer Mom on CBS last night in a one on one caked interview, can you IMAGINE how she would fair against a foreign policy expert. You folks are in trouble.

SV is a Republican pollster whose likely voter screen and weighting likely favor McCain. When SV finds the Democratic candidate ahead in battleground states, that candidate is almost certainly in a strong position there. A 1,200 likely voter sample of a small state like NH is huge. As SV suggests, Obama probably does have a slight lead there (+1 here).

This poll is one of 6 NH polls that have been released in the last 2-3 days. The NH poll not yet posted here is from Suffolk; it too shows Obama ahead by 1 point. See:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/26/suffolk_poll_obama_inches_ahead_in_new_hampshire.html

5 of the last 6 NH polls show Obama ahead there. The only exception was a right-leaning Rasmussen poll that found McCain ahead by just 2 points. Rasmussen's failure to call cell phones, now established to under-estimate Obama's support by 2-3 points, is by itself enough to explain this difference. See:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/selzer-co-correction-on-cellphones.html

NH's electorate is about 40% unaffiliated, 30% Republican, and 30% Democratic. In this year's NH primary, Obama won 104,815 votes, and McCain won 88,713 votes. The state has been trending blue, with Kerry flipping it in 2004, and with 2 Democratic representatives elected in 2006.

The trend of the most recent NH polls is toward Obama. The state remains McCain's best bet at a pickup, but it may be slipping away from him.

Comment on the NH poll. True, McCain has to decide where to marshall his campaign money...and there are a lot of States he's now forced to "defend". At the same time the RNC CAN fundraise (using Palin), and package their McCain-Palin contributions into something that might help Sununu in his race with Shaheen. If the RNC thinks there is a close down ticket race THEY might expend more $$$ in that race than elsewhere.

On the Rasmussen numbers...

1) Funny, but these show precisely the same differential as the dailyKos numbers! Gotta think that there are a few heads exploding over that ;-)

2) A lot of McCain apologists on this site were asserting that the Obama momentum had actually peaked. Sorry, imagine if one was able to look at "Day #3) of their 3-Day rolling poll. It must've been a major jump!

3) While the Rasmussen numbers might have been influenced a bit by the McCain "suspended animation" ploy...it certainly doesn't show the impact of McCain's failure to help resolve the issue (and in fact obstruct) a deal at the WH talks. There's still another shoe to fall.

@faithhopelove, you said "Rasmussen's failure to call cell phones, now established to under-estimate Obama's support by 2-3 points, is by itself enough to explain this difference."

What? Where has it been established that not calling cell phones underestimates Obama support by 2-3 points? Where is there any hard facts on that?

A WORD ABOUT HOTLINE POLL:

Is the Hotline Poll actually a "tracking poll" or not? I have never seen a tracking poll before that constantly makes single-day 3-5 point jumps.

Earlier this week, they jumped 5 points for Obama in one day and today they jumped 3.

I honestly don't see how this is possible, unless Obama is polling +10 to +12 on those days.

A WORD ABOUT GALLUP:

Gallup is gonna feel pretty odd today if his poll comes out showing McCain ahead despite all these other poll showing Obama blowing up.

We'll see.

boomshak "despite all these other poll showing Obama blowing up." Am I missing some polls? ROFL You are a freakin' IDIOT dude.
What poll shows Obama "blowing up?"

The way I see it playing out right now is a 269-269 tie. Obama will win CO and NM, but I don't think he can win NH. I don't think you can trust any poll, especially one from NH. I'm using the primary as an example. I'm still very worried, maybe someone can talk me down.

@macsuk:
boomshak

"So your saying Huckabee is to McCain what Clinton is to Obama. If you do it is the first thing we have ever agreed on."

No I am saying Huckabee has been an asshat from day one. Huckabee is the reason why McCain is our nominee right now and not Romney (Economy Anyone?). Huckabee split the conservative vote and let McCain sneak in on moderates.

Huckabee is a pompous preaning ass and I will never forgive him for causing Romney to lose.

I think tracking polls, any of them, are pretty skeptical. I mean how can people change their minds that much in one night? They don't. I think the only thing tracking polls are good for, or maybe any poll for that matter, is to just see a trend line.

@cinnamonape, you said "Sorry, imagine if one was able to look at "Day #3) of their 3-Day rolling poll. It must've been a major jump!"

My calculations are telling me that these were the daily numbers on Rasmussen the last 3 nights -

9/23: 44(M) - 51 (O)
9/24: 44(M) - 48 (O)
9/25: 47(M) - 51 (O)

So Tuesday night was in fact Obama's best as far as margin is concerned.

@NW Patrick:

What poll shows Obama "blowing up?" >>

lol Patrick, no that would be YOU who is the freakin IDIOT.

"Blowin up" is slang for "doing real well" dumbass. Geesh, lol. Out of touch much? Haven't you ever heard of a rock group "blowin' up" meaning they are very hot?

Geesh.

@boomshak, You and I disagree about politics but yes even I knew what you meant by blowing up. LOL.

Rasmussen up from +2% to +5% in a single day of a 3-day tracker is huge: what the **** were the single day figures for Thursday?

Again, look to the internals for clues: "48% disagree with McCain, think the debate should go on."

Hotline/Diago is less important. They have a smaller sample and a track record of results leaping about, but combined with the topline results and internals from several polls, it adds to the general picture becoming very clear: voters are decding that they cannot rely on McCain's Judgement in a crisis.

Boomboom: "Yet both show the same lead today for Obama. Who knows, what that means, its just weird."

That's because Dkos is only asking people whether they "identify with" the Democrats at this point in time (regardless of actual party affiliation). Rassmussen takes the respondants stated party affiliation and then enlarges or decreases it according to a weighting system arrived at by some other (mysterious) means.

Thus dKos reflects the raw data, but Ras would place a lot of dissident Republicans into the "Democratic" fold (likely all Obama supporters) and have those that are hard-core, willing-to-state, Republicans (likely McCain supporters) only in the "Republican" category. Then he adds the weights.

So here's what's happened. dKos has more people stating their "current preference". Ras is now showing, even amongst those still stating allegiance to "Republican values" a PUMA effect...against McCain-Palin. These are dyed-in-the-woolers and they are shifting...but his model can't reject them.

@sunnymi:

My calculations are telling me that these were the daily numbers on Rasmussen the last 3 nights -

9/23: 44(M) - 51 (O)
9/24: 44(M) - 48 (O)
9/25: 47(M) - 51 (O)

So Tuesday night was in fact Obama's best as far as margin is concerned.

-yep that's about right. These tracking polls can be misleading at times.

@NW Patrick:

" boomshak "despite all these other poll showing Obama blowing up." Am I missing some polls? ROFL You are a freakin' IDIOT dude.
What poll shows Obama "blowing up?" "

Dude, you may have just won the prize for the DUMBEST COMMENT ever made on this board (and that's saying alot!)

Lol, Double-Fail-With-Chili-On-It.

boomshak--
what polls are showing Obama blowing up??? All I see is exactly the opposite! Can't wait for your analysis.
Spin Baby Spin

The largest turnout of the youth vote was in 1972 which was the first year that 18-year olds could vote in a Presidential Election. That year there was a another huge incentive... Vietnam War and the DRAFT!

Voter turnout in 1972 of 18-29 was 55% compared to 70% for 30 and older. In 2004, 18-29 voting was 49% compared to 68% for 30+.

Note also that in 1972 the youth (18-29) share of the citizens was 28.6% compared to 20.9% in 2004. The youth share of votes cast was 24.2% in 1972 and 16% in 2004.

Another way to look at it is votes cast...
18-29 in 1972: 20,745,000
18-29 in 2004: 20,125,000

+30 in 1972: 65,021,000
+30 in 2004: 105,611,000

In other words, the youth segment has shrunk from 1972 as well as the youth turnout has not reached the same level... even though the 2004 showed a spike in the youth vote not seen since 1992 (although still not as high and both lower than 1972.)

www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

For you young 'uns... The Presidential race was won by incumbent Nixon (520 EV) over McGovern (17 EV = Massachusetts + D.C.). Also can anyone remember the VP candidates?

Do you guys really not know what blowing up means?

Wow, Dodd outright liar.
Must – must read.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/mccain_kept_head_down_in_meeti.php

(Hopefully) the American people can see through the shenanigans of these truly sick democrats.

@boomshak, you said "
A WORD ABOUT GALLUP:
Gallup is gonna feel pretty odd today if his poll comes out showing McCain ahead despite all these other poll showing Obama blowing up."

Yes it will sure look odd but the only way it could remain a tie or better for Obama on Gallup is if he did 47-43 or better on last night's polling. Gallup seems to have 45-45 and 50(M)-46(O) for the 2 nights before last night.

Ok McCain will debate tonight...

Too bad I will miss it.

@KipTin, thanks for that. Shows what I already thought. The youth vote is a myth in recent elections. I see no reason yet that it will change in 08. If Obama is relying on this vote to push him over the top, that has me worried.

to nick-socal

I think republican youngsters are not enthusiastic about Maccain, but DEM youngsters are super enthusiastic about Obama.
YOu can check in Primary polls.

But you don't know any young dems, right?

BLATANT DEMOCRAT MANIPULATION:

The Honorable Nancy Pelosi

Speaker of the House

H-232, U.S. Capitol

Washington, D.C. 20515

Madame Speaker:

As our discussion ended last night, we agreed to continue talking about how to best solve this economic crisis. Like you, House Republicans and I believe we must address this crisis quickly and in a way that protects the interests of families, seniors, small businesses, and all taxpayers. As you know, this process is not about faceless executives on Wall Street, but about keeping families in their homes, safeguarding their retirement security, college savings, and bank accounts, and protecting their jobs.

Over the last week, we have frequently discussed Secretary Paulson’s proposal, and I have repeatedly expressed the need for improvements on behalf of myself and my Republican colleagues. Our staffs have also been in regular contact. To that end, Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Spencer Bachus (R-AL) was tasked by House Republicans to engage in discussions with Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) and Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) and report back to our Conference on the progress of those negotiations before a final deal could be made. Yet Chairman Frank and Chairman Dodd, on several occasions over the last several days, announced that a bipartisan deal was at hand even though the reservations about the underlying proposal I had expressed to you had not been addressed. Each time such announcements were made, or even rumored, I or my staff made it clear to media and to your staff that any such deal did not include House Republicans.

As we demonstrated at the beginning of this year when we crafted a timely agreement on the economic stimulus package, a bipartisan response to our nation’s priorities is never out of reach. And I believe the same holds true at this hour. House Republicans are prepared to stay in Washington to forge an agreement on a proposal that reflects the core free-market, pro-taxpayer principles of our Party.

With that in mind, earlier this week, with your knowledge, I directed our Chief Deputy Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) to lead a working group of House Republicans to develop a package of ideas to move this process forward. His working group represented a broad cross-section of House Republicans – including both moderate and conservative members – and their goal was to develop ideas worthy of support on both sides of the aisle. We have discussed some of these ideas, and I would like to reiterate that I believe they should be given the consideration they deserve as our economic rescue discussions continue. A brief overview of the working group’s blueprint is included with this letter.

Madam Speaker, we owe it to all those with a stake in this process to continue our discussions until we arrive at an agreement that is acceptable on both sides of the aisle – and more importantly, one that serves the interests of American taxpayers. That is why I ask you and your Democratic colleagues to give the House Republican working group’s proposals serious consideration as this process moves forward. If such consideration is not given, a large majority of Republicans cannot – and will not – support Sec. Paulson’s plan. In the interest of the men and women we represent in Congress, I hope it does not come to that conclusion. I look forward to your timely response and to continuing our work together on an economic rescue package worthy of all of our support.

Sincerely,

John Boehner

Republican Leader

nick-socal:

I posted a link to the cell phone info. Here it is again:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/selzer-co-correction-on-cellphones.html

And here is another one:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/964/

Of course he's going to debate. I can't understand why anyone every actually thought he wouldn't. How could you not see that it was a stunt to get attention?

nick-socal:"I understand, but again, it's always touted as the thing that will make a Democrat tip it and win. Never materializes. I just think it's a big mistake to rely on that in your polling and to also rely on that as a strategy to win. "

Actually all the exit poll data from 2004 show a 30% increase in under 30 voter participation from 2000. And in 2000 it was 15% higher than 1996. It actually helped keep both Gore and Kerry close (actually putting Gore ahead in the popular vote). What didn't happen was an increase their "share" of the voting public. In 2004 the youth vote was substantially negated by the evangelical turn-out (and many of those were young voters that voted for Bush). So the effect was diminished.

But clearly the trend is upward...and because the actual "potential" participation of "non-voters" is higher in that group...there is room for growth. Quite frankly, one can't substantially increase over 60 year old participation from 2004.

So if the current trend continues, young voters will equal the 30-45, or 45-60 age categories this year in terms of numbers. That's just assuming the rate of increase remains steady. IF Obama is actually MORE INSPIRING to younger voters then those numbers may actually be greater. Of course, there's the possibility that McCain may appeal highly to the over 65 year olds, or that Palin might bring out the Middle-Aged male population, or evangelicals afraid of witchcraft, or something. That might counteract the effect.

Saying there WAS A DEAL until McCain showed up is a COMPLETE LIE.

to KipTin:

you can read the article from PEW research regarding cell phone users.
It is on this site.
And you will think differently.

this year, Youngsters are most enthusiastic supporters and since we will send them text message on election day, they will turnout amazingly..... they are especially concerned about global warming and end of Iraq war.

@zen, I know plenty of young Dems. I'm one of them LOL. And i volunteer at my local Democratic Party HQ. It's funny how if you question something around here it suddenly means you're an idiot.

Harry Reid is a COMPLETE LIAR. There was never any deal except between a few people on a committee.

What a joke. America, DO NOT GIVE THESE EVIL PEOPLE (Reid and Co) POWER!

There is NO "mysterious" means for Rasmussen weighting. The latest weighting is based on 6 weeks of polling data (before conventions it was 3 months) of over 21,000 interviews (500 per night) from a separate nationwide sample of adults. And 21,000 is a VERY LARGE sample!!!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_party_weighting_targets_39_0_democrat_33_5_republican

Debate back on. Now the country can witness the squirming! Ultimate. Flip. Flop. Of. All. Time.

Now there's leadership!

How weak does McCain look now?
WED: "Stop the bandwagon - I need to sort this thing out!"
FRI: "Er...it's not been sorted out, but I can get back on please?"
Yep, that's one strong leader....

Oh child...guys, you get so worked up with pronosticating the outcome of the election, which is a total non-sense. If Obama wins, I bet the entire farm that none of the people who are here forecasting the "disaster" will have the "pair" to show up and let us throw eggs in their faces. They will just dissapear, period. Same thing is going to happen with Obama supporters if he loses. No one will have the "pair," except maybe me, to show up and see the others making fun of us, me included. I really find the whole forecasting a fools' waste of time, in my no too humble opinion :-)

Grandpa's debating! It's on. He'd better have a good showing.. Obama's going after him. You watch.

KipTin & nick-socal (re: the youth vote):

In the Democratic primaries, the youth vote increased by 52%. See:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.html

Of course, Obama does not need youth turnout to be 52% greater than in 2004 to win this election. If it increases even slightly, then he will most likely win. If it increases by 25% (according to the info linked), then Obama will likely swing IA, NM, CO, and NV. If it increases by 50%, then he will likely flip OH as well.

Not only is the debate on, but according to the WSJ McCain has won it.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/mccain_wins_debate.html

Wow what a Maverick. The "STUNT" failed and Grandpa's on to debate!

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) ended three days of suspense on Friday morning and announced that he will leave bailout negotiations in Washington and fly to Oxford, Miss., for the opening presidential debate.

McCain had said he would suspend his campaign until an agreement was reached on the administration's $700 billion mortgage proposal.

No such an agreement has been reached, but Republicans said the standoff was hurting McCain's campaign, and he would look terrible if he ruined the nationally televised, eagerly anticipated debate while Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) was ready to go onstage.

The text of the statement:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) announces: "The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.

Senator Reid has issues with McCain over and above Reid's support for Obama. It is very evident from the many strange derogative comments he has made regarding McCain since Reid became Senate Majority Leader. I think it is based on his inability to keep McCain "in line." Nothing like having a bi-partisan rebel undermine partisan deals. But like several people who know and/or have observed McCain, McCain is just being McCain. He did not get "Maverick" label for being a "Milquetoast" (like Caspar Milquetoast character of the comic strip "The Timid Soul").

Maybe now that McCain leaves, the parties will come together in agreement as they were trending prior to Grandpa's arrival.

You should read 538 blog titled "McCain Doubling Down on Debate?" It makes sense what Nate Silver states "Perhaps, however, rather than trying to postpone the debate, McCain is instead seeking to increase its importance."

Well, McCain did just that. Many more will be tuning in. And in the meantime, Obama's 3-day preparation with occasional campaign appearances in Florida was interrupted. So how is that a "failure?"

McCain flip flops yet again.

Yesterday, in a very clear statement the McCain Campaign declared "No deal, no debate."

Today, there appears to be a different story. Something along the lines of "Nothing we say means anything. Have you not figured that out by now?"

I seem to be the only Democrat on this site that isn't going to be surprised when McCain is up 3-4% points nationally and has solidified his red states and NH by early next week. Americans love drama and McCain is very good at drama. And Obama ain't gonna do as well in the debate tonight as you cats think. And McCain has portrayed himself as an even bigger underdog as he was before.

McCain up next week, solidifies his red states, flips NH and keeps it extremely close going into election day. He squeaks out a win in CO and it's all over. President McCain. I won't be surprised. Most of you seem like you will be.

To those of you who say the media doesn't matter you're nuts. Overwhelmingly this McCain trip to DC is being played as a STUNT. But I'm sure Americans will not agree with that and ignore 90% of media accounts:)

What a JOKE. He's desperate.

"Well, McCain did just that. Many more will be tuning in. And in the meantime, Obama's 3-day preparation with occasional campaign appearances in Florida was interrupted. So how is that a "failure?""

KipTin, at least you admit that this was a political stunt. Do you really want a president who uses a national crisis as a political stunt? People are in trouble and this guy is playing games.

nick-socal you are showing your youth. LOL
What event today would give McCain a 10 point plus swing by early next week? Obama will at MINIMUM hold his own tonight. You'll be surprised. McCain is NOT a great debater... he looked old and cranky vs. Romney and the others in the primary. Obama will WITH EASE tie the Iraq war to, at least, helping to hurt the US Economy.

@nick-socal
Do you even know what has gone on in the last few weeks? If so, I have no idea how you could think this. McCain is bonkers, and Palin is the only thing making him look less so.

You guys are funny. McCain was going to debate all the time, he knew that. Now he's put more importance on the debate and appears an even bigger underdog. Score one for the old sod.

@boomfail, Of course I know what's been going on the last couple of weeks. And I know that Obama peaked earlier this week. You just refuse to see that. We have a difference of opinion, that doesn't make me stupid.

Pay attention... NW Patrick... The parties were not coming together for the legislation because there is a GOP fiscal conservative faction in the House who were not going along with it... and they need at least some of those votes to pass the bill. (Who do you think Dick Cheney was sent down to The Hill to convince?.. way before McCain's campaign suspension.) Notably, the American public is also not too thrilled with the "bailout." Actually, the more dissension there is and final coming together on an agreement, the more likely that the voters will begrudgingly come to accept the final deal.

On another note: It was also reported that the Dems were trying to push through the agreement before McCain arrived so as to thwart his impact. Who knows where the truth lies?

What is factual is yesterday's WaMu event, which definitely adds to the importance of doing something.

MI no longer appears to be in play. SV, a Republican pollster, shows McCain down by 3 there. 12 of the last 14 MI polls have shown Obama ahead there (with 1 tie, and 1 McCain lead in a poll conducted by an unknown pollster). Yesterday's Selzer poll found Obama up 13 points in MI. Selzer is a top-ranked pollster. See:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann-selzer-on-youth-minority-turnout.html

On Wednesday, McCain's own pollster did not mention MI when he named his man's best pickup opportunities (he named NH, PA, and WI). See:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/pi_20080927_1179.php

nick-socal McCain's the debate's UNDERDOG? ROFL. Wow. What campaign are you watching? McCain is CLEARLY expected to whipe Obama's butt. Remember, this is the "foreign policy" debate. If Obama so much BREAKS even it's a win for Obama. Because after this debate, then the next debate talks about the Economy and so on, McCain will be in trouble. In addition, we have a VP debate coming up that will further spotlight McCain's GAFFE in picking a SOCCER MOM to lead the free world when he dies.

nick-socal-

I don't think any of us are assuming anything, although the idea that you are a Democrat is a little funny. McBush did not paint himself as the underdog...he painted himself as the guy that draws a line in the sand (No deal, no debate) and then moves the line when public opinion (75% of America wants the debate and thought the candidates should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time) shows up against him. Just another example of how McBush can't even hold his convictions for more than 48 hours. The idea that McCain will be up in a week is silly unless Obama blows the debate. And of course, that COULD happen. But don't bet on it.

And one last thing. Since you are a Democrat, I'm telling you Obama will win this election easily, and so you should be happy when that happens, right? Please, tell us how happy you'll be if Obama wins?

McCain flips-flops on participating in the debate that he already won without even showing up to debate in the first place!

There is nothing that can be added to that - absolutely nothing. The moral bankruptcy of McCain machine speaks for itself. Spin away, GOPpies, spin away.

Ras showing five point lead in VA (50-45) for Obama.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Thanks, JCK. That's a very large lead coming from Rasmussen.

Everything could turn around tonight, but right now things are looking pretty good for Obama.

Now people expect Obama to win the debate, according to poll. Now his "rehearsals" were interrputed...so we will see how he does. Man I wish I could watch.

WOW VIRGINIA? Jesus. Nick... Still think McCain will be up 4 next week? LOL

Look at the overall picture in PA. Lookin' good. Can someone tell me how McCain can win the electoral college based on the current map?

RCP Average 09/14 - 09/24 -- 47.6 44.1 Obama +3.5
Rasmussen 09/24 - 09/24 500 LV 49 45 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 09/23 - 09/24 1094 LV 50 44 Obama +6
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 47 46 Obama +1
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 730 LV 53 44 Obama +9
National Journal/FD 09/18 - 09/22 406 RV 43 41 Obama +2
NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/16 - 09/18 625 LV 46 44 Obama +2
Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 600 RV 45 45 Tie

seven point swing in VA

LOL

5 point VA lead on Raz for Obama. This is all part of the "decline" that our Democratic friend nick-socal has been predicting.

@JCK:
Ras showing five point lead in VA (50-45) for Obama.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Take that baby out of the oven. It's over.

McCain is not a great debater? So that makes Obama a great debater? Obama who used his teleprompter in a bull ring in New Mexico in recent time? Whereas, McCain has the advantage of impromptu speaking from his hundreds of town hall meetings over the years?

Although not a debate, look at how Obama rambled on at the Saddleback Civic Forum compared to the direct punchy speech of McCain. Even Obama's spokespeople have said that Obama is working on making shorter comprehensive statements. No one denies that Obama likes to parse and nuance (lawyer-speak that some call deep thought) when he is supposed to be speaking in campaign rhetoric (i.e. to-the-point brevity).

The really good debater is Hillary.

@NW Patrick:

Looks like Boomshak owes you some money.

Here are the posts from last Friday.

boomshak:

@metsmets:
Lol, rantings? My posts are the truth, of which there is little in this bastion of liberals.

The RCP Average has Obama +1.9 and that includes many polls with a bad sample. There are 4 ties in the RCP Average.

Obama had a little bounce due to the economic thing but his response has been pathetic.

This time next week, McCain up by 2 Rasmussen.

Posted on September 19, 2008 8:38 PM

NW Patrick:

BOOM we'll hold ya to it! This time next week..Friday..McCain up 2? Wanna bet?

Posted on September 19, 2008 9:06 PM

________________________________

Do you think there's any chance at all that boomshak will admit that he was wrong?

RCP Average Obama +3.7
Intrade Obama +14.5

Boomshak also told me on the 15th that I was wrong to assume that a bad economy would be bad for McCain. How is that working out?

What's sad is that Palin's scary interview with Katie Couric is being overshadowed by McCain's missteps on the economic crisis. I thought the Charles Gibson interview was bad, but this one is beyond pathetic.

I will also add that Obama tends to stray off message (the reason given for his using teleprompters at his campaign events) whereas McCain is very good about staying on message.

@nick-socal
"And I know that Obama peaked earlier this week. You just refuse to see that."

Are you looking at something that I am not seeing??? To me, just the opposite is happening (i.e. VA, OH, NC, FL) If you see something different other that one outlier poll, please share.

Obama's the 5th Wheel

Relevant players in the plan Bush-McCain-Dems-Rep.

That's why he didn't suspend his campaign and do what the sleazy chicago machine hired him to do...BE A SENATOR. He knows nobody would listen to him anyway and they haven't put what he should say on the teleprompter.

_____________

Was there a format change for tonight?

Nick doesn't like facts. They get in his way. Once we all realize that we'll have a much easier time understanding.

@Batony, exactly. People now expect Obama to win. Ding. Like I said, score one for the old sod.

@cmbat, YES, YES, YES, I will be ecstatic if Obama wins. I hope to hell I'm wrong and can come here at eat my plate of crow.

I think it's funny how if I don't toe the Democratic line I'm some how a suspect Democrat. I see myself as a realist. I hope I'm wrong. I'm usually not when it comes to my hunches. I don't know maybe I got some of that hyped woman's intuition, but I'm usually pretty spot on with my hunches.

I think the reason we're seeing these leads on the state levels is because there was a lag between the national polls and the state polls. I still feel Obama peaked earlier this week and it will start to show up early next week with a McCain lead.

the race is still on.

anyone thinks this is over - it is not.

It won't be over till the result is official. not a second before that.

May I remind you that voters vote for Presidents and not the VP? Besides Cheney, Gore, and LBJ.. can you even name any VPs?

BTW: The media has been having a field day with Biden's gaffes as well as Palin and McCain. I hear Obama gaffes all the time and they do not even mention it. A short time ago Obama referred to "my Muslim faith" and that just this week he said that "he (McCain) is decisive." This MSM ignoring of Obama's foibles is called the "Obama Rules" which also includes anything that can even be remotely inferred as a racist statement by anyone not in Obama's camp.

We'll all know this time next week if my initial hunch was right or not. I hope I'm wrong and will gladly be here to admit I was wrong. And in this case would be very happy to be wrong.

The fanatism here really scares me. We are suppose to come here and give our opinions about the polls, the samples, the demographics, compared to other pollsters, etc. But just the very first comments seem to be on the subject, as one scrolls down, the fanatism starts. Please, there have being so many polls lately that we could be having a very good debate on how those polls were conducted and comparing among all pollsters, but instead, the talking points discussion runs all they long.

*You all know that in this election, I'm supporting Obama, but it won't be a tragedy for me if McCain wins. Tragedy for me would have been another Clinton in the WH-my opinion of course. So, take it easy and enjoy the ride. If McCain/Palin win, the jokes for the next 4 years are going to make my days. See, we have to always look for the bright side :-)

If Obama really said "my Muslim faith" I can't imagine the media not running long ball with that one.

I can name another VP: Spiro Agnew. Dan Quayle.

And if Obama really did say "my Muslim faith" with video then he's toast. McCain will spend every last dollar running one ad and one ad only. That ad.

Everyone. What a great article by a conservative woman:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDZiMDhjYTU1NmI5Y2MwZjg2MWNiMWMyYTUxZDkwNTE=

A short time ago Obama referred to "my Muslim faith"-KipTin

Wow. I've tried to give you the benefit of the doubt, but that is way to far. You are a troll. You should be completely ashamed of yourself. Seriously.

Napoleon Complex I knew Boomshak was wrong because I look at the big picture.

@NW Patrick

I read that article earlier today on the right wing blog Townhall. Not to be shocked, but the best way to descibe the responses were pitchforks and torches. They were not happy with Parker.

Obama did say Muslim Faith, and it took Stephanopolus to correct him, but the mainstream media downplayed it. But every mistake McCain-Palin make it's all over the news.

That's the only thing I hate about this year. I know the media is so afraid to be called racist, that they tiptoe around Obama, but just be fair. This has been a disaster media-wise, no objectivity at all. In the end I believe it will cost Obama.

@Batony "Obama did say Muslim Faith"

Then Obama is in trouble. Even I have a hard time believing that as a gaffe. A gaffe is like when Biden said Roosevelt went on TV. I see Obama's comment more of a slip then a gaffe. I'm not saying he really is a Muslm, but for him to have said that sure puts a doubt in my mind now.

Fear-mongering trolls. I honestly don't know how you live with yourselves. It's disgusting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQqIpdBOg6I&feature=related

Thank you Justin for giving us a link to the entire clip. Obama was taking about the right labelling him as a muslim. The reps will stop at nothing.

@Justin. Thank you for that. I'm young. But I'm a dumb firefighter and don't always get the tech thing, heh. Anyway thank you for clearing that up and yes I absolutely agree that is bullcrap to be suggesting Obama said he referred to his Muslim faith. It's clear that he meant John McCain has never tried to say that he is Muslim. Now, the reason right-wing nutters are going on that is because the interviewer sort of messed up Obama there. When I heard Obama say it first I totally got that he was saying McCain has never suggested that Obama has a Muslim faith. It was the interviewers ill choice to try and correct Obama. There was nothing to correct Obama about.

@Batony did you watch the video? How can you suggest the media is down playing anything now? There was nothing to down play, Obama didn't make a gaffe.

Republicans: The Party of Hate, Lies, Corruption, Manipulation, and Misinformation

Wear your badges proudly.

Wait...I thought the issue was, did he say "my Muslim faith" and he was corrected by Stephanopolus? Is that not true?

How bad is your reading comprehension... Justin??? Or do not you know the meaning of "gaffe?" aka blunder, goof, error, misspeak, etc.

I said "gaffes"... in other words Obama made a goof when he spoke...not that I think he is a Muslim (and btw I do not care ) but rather he made a speaking ERROR.

Same as Biden did when he stated “Ladies and gentlemen, and I say to the national press here, the single biggest tax cut proposed in history for the middle class is being proposed by John McCain.” (I am pretty sure Biden meant to slam McCain and not praise him, right? He meant to say "tax increase...for the middle class.")

P.S. Justin... Calling me a "troll" shows your disrespect for anyone and everyone who does not share your views. So have you joined the ranks of Obamanation? Bad behavior and namecalling will get you there fast.

MAIN PAGE

Yes... Justin has joined Obamanation and is a full-fledged member.

@Batony, no it's not really true. Not in the sense you're suggesting it's not. You were trying to say that Obama misspoke and the interviewer corrected him and therefore is going light on Obama for not illustrating his gaffes. He clearly didn't make a gaffe. If anyone in that clip made a gaffe is was the interviewer. Obama never misspoke. He was saying that no one was making an issue of his "Muslim faith" meaning no one said he has a Muslim faith.

If you can't see that, which I suspect you can, then I can't help you. Same goes for you KipTin, Obama made no gaffe.

Hey... guys... pay attention and don't overreact to your own misinterpretation... the discussion is about Obama misspeaking... and not if he is Muslim or not. The whole point is that Obama makes speaking errors just like Biden, McCain, and Palin.

Obama didn't misspeak. You seem to be the one with a comprehension problem. If you can't understand what Obama said and therefore can't see it that he didn't make a gaffe that probably explains why you support McCain and Republicans. Maybe it was just over your head.

Sure... if you say so. Obama NEVER makes speaking errors because he is superior to us other human beings.

Nick-socal:

What the hell do you mean in the sense I'm suggesting it? The man said "my Muslim faith" when he meant to say my Christian faith. That's a gaffe. He misspoke.

Are you people sane? I am really getting scared. Obama is not a god. He is human, he can make a mistake. This is ridiculous. And I was thinking Nick was somewhat level-headed, but now you come at me with that nonsense? Incredible.

Sure... if you say so. Obama NEVER makes speaking errors because he is superior to us other human beings.

No one suggested anything like that. You sound like a child.

@Batony, Obama didn't misspeak in that interview. He just didn't. It appear to be over your head too. The interviewer was wrong to correct him because there was nothing to correct. But I know Obama can misspeak. I'll be the first to admit it. In fact I don't think he speaks as well as everyone else does. He talks in choppy sentences, cuts himself off, and sometimes is labored in is speaking. So, no, I don't think of him as some sort of god.

I'm not sure why people are so convinced that McCain is hurting himself with this bailout battle-go to Washington-delay the debate thing. It's called political theater. And frankly the Democrats are terrible at it.

Think about it, the public is overwhelmingly against the bailout. Bush is for it. Bush is extremely unpopular. Guess who's for the bailout? The Democrats. Bingo. This is John McCain's way to really say look, I'm not tied to Bush at all. In fact, Obama is. Haha. See people? Do you see this? This is the October surprise. This is the thing that will sink Obama, I hate Dick Morris, but he's right.

So, that's why McCain will start to make a move in the polls. And if the bailout plan gets changed to something Bush doesn't want, but the Democrats were pushing Bush's plan. Wow you just improved the view of Republicans in the minds of Americans. This will have implications beyond the presidential race. It'll effect the Congressional elections too. You watch.

Republicans: Political theater. Hook. Line. Sinker.

Please... Justin... Your ongoing disparagement of me and others is what "sounds like a child." Maybe you need a timeout.

P.S. I also see that your reading comprehension also does not accept "sarcasm" as a rhetorical tool.

nick-socal said...
"I'm not sure why people are so convinced that McCain is hurting himself with this bailout battle-go to Washington-delay the debate thing. It's called political theater. And frankly the Democrats are terrible at it."

Nick, the Democrats are terrible at it because they PUBLICALLY express a 'Chicken Little' complex every time a small piece of bad news occurs. A lot of them, like you, take the latest news, and think that is the totality of the picture.

Notice how the Repigs on this site stay in line with their spin of how McCain's waffling this week is not bad, but good (even if it isn't)? Notice how they change the subject any time any questions of Palin being capable and prepared to be President comes up, or put up a bunch of spin? Notice how they blow everything out of proportion? Notice how they take things out of context - when it's to their benefit? Notice how they put 'context' on comments that are detrimental to THEIR candidates?

In other words, they don't spread doom and gloom about their candidate, but do so on their candidate's opponent. They don't comment on the bad information about their candidate, but always pick and choose anything that they can spin for the good of their candidate.

STOP the Chicken Little comments! Rebut the spin of the Repigs. Do some research for facts.

Earlier today, niTpiK stated that the youth vote wouldn't be up. His basis of spin? Comparing the youth vote of 1972 to 2004. That's like comparing the stock market price from 1982 to today - what happened in the meantime, and what is the current trend? In 1982, the Dow closed at 776 during the year. Today it closed at 11,143. But as recent as 2007, it closed at 14,164 on one date. So has the market risen more than 18.25 times (1982 low to 2007 high), or dropped 21%+ (2007 high to today's close)?

What is the history of the youth vote (aged 18-29) as a per cent of those registered?
1972 - 55%
1976 through 1984, it was in the upper 40s (48-49%)
1988 - it fell to the lower 40s range
1992 - it rose to the low 50s
1996 - about 39% of registered youth voted
2000 - about 41% of registered youth voted
2004 - about 49% of registered youth voted
(See Graph 2 at: http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf)

Notice that niTpiK didn't include any proof to back up his data, didn't include any of the intervening data, and tried to make you think that the youth vote has been in a tail spin since 1972? It's called spin, and the only purpose is to distract everyone from the actual facts.

Don't fall for the Repig spin, and fight the Chicken Little impulses that Repig spin tries to give you.

Ladies and Gentlemen : "Madam Speaker - The President of the United States - Barack Obama.