Pollster.com

While I'm glad to Obama ahead in these polls and wish the margins were larger its seems from the volatility of even the national trend that its still too soon get really meaningful data out of most of the state polls.

Well this is anunabashly Republican pollster Obama clearly leads in both outside the MOE.

These are both firm

This Washington # is a JOKE. LOL I live in the Region. It will be a MINIMUM 8 or 9 point win for Obama.

No surprise here.

Mccain needs to focus on Co,Oh,Nv,Va
if he wins those its over

or he could loose Co and win Pa

lesser targets would be Mn Wisconsin

Thoughtful, while i don't think McCain has a shot in either of these states, to really be outside an MOE of 3, Obama would need a 7 point lead. If you were to move Obama down 3 points in NJ while moving McCain up 3 points it would be McCain 46, Obama 44.

4% in NJ is actually a huge number of voters. NJ is not IA, - no offense Jill (my IA buddy) but NJ is a very populous state. But I still think JM should continue to invest here for the down ballot races at least. More field offices never hurt either.

@Justin

Thank you for the correction.

How much is the Stategic Vision "House effect"?

GOP pollster. Strong blue states. Thoughtful's comment is right on target.

Who on this post feels that they are the smartest most informed liberal?

I wonder why Strategic Vision does not release the details of the polls?!?!? I have a lot of questions about the NJ numbers. There aren't that percentage of repubs in NJ and the independents aren't swingin to McCain. The detail needed is the racial and gender breakdown, time of day (older folks and stay-home Moms tend to be at home during the day and are skewing repub) and party affiliation. I'm not aware of WA, but this cannot be true for NJ

Yea, rrriiiigggghhhttttt. A joke

I need the help of a really smart Obama supporter to help me make a point.

who feels qualified to help me? Are there any smart Obama supporters here? Speak up

By you silence, I guess all the smart people are conservatives

I'll give you a few minutes to get your nerve up.

Lynne de Rothschild is from Jersey. She may be used topush hard for this state.

McCain will NOT win Washington or New Jersey unless Obama has a meltdown. That's a fact. Yes, these polls are somewhat close but polls come and go.
_________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

How much is the Stategic Vision "House effect"?

I think pollster or 538 once analyzed this question. IIRC, it was something like 2 points. So, if this poll is "really" showing Obama up 6 in NJ and 7 in WA, it still seems less than I'd expect and less than the average of other pollsters, but not completely crazy.

greg in charlotte I am. Let's go.

greg in charlotte BRING IT. Ask away.

s.b., New Jersey may have the highest average income of any state in the country, but the people still have a very blue collar mentality. Lady de Rothschild would hurt McCain's cause there if anything.

The state became a little "redder" in the '04 presidential race, but mostly because people were not fans of John Kerry (who still managed to win by seven points, I believe).

Ok thanks Patrick, I can really use your help. I have heard conservative friends that tell me Obama's econ. policy is exactly like Jimmy Carters econ. plan. My question is, how does Obamas plan differ from Jimmy Carters.

While Patrick the smart Liberal is working on his answer, would anyone else like to take a shot at the question. I really need some help here.

Given that SV is a Republican pollster, it would be helpful if they showed their registered voter numbers; that way, people would be able to see how much their likely voter screen favors Republicans (by screening out some registered Democrats).

SV's polls of NJ have been poor in the past. SV's last poll of this state before the 2004 election showed a tie. Kerry won the state by 7 points. See:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nj_polls.html

Recent polls have consistently shown Obama's lead in WA to be in the single digits; but no poll since February has shown McCain ahead there. Polls of WA taken during McCain's bounce showed him down there by 4 points and 2 points; more recent polls show Obama expanding his lead to 5-6 points. Kerry won the state by 7 points.

Historically, NJ and WA have polled closely, only to break late for Democrats.

greg in charlotte-
You are a pointy-headed conservative!

So

Looking at Strategic Vision (R) numbers from 2004, Obama is actually outperforming Kerry's performance.

So basically a Republican pollster is artificially making the race look closer than it is.

I'm not sure why they would want to appear so biased (what kind of business does that give them?), but whatever.

Greg in Charlotte is a racist because he doesnt like black people