10/16-19/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 51, McCain 42, Barr 1, Nader 1, Baldwin 0, McKinney 0, Moore 0
McCain 45, Obama 44, Nader 1, Barr 0, Baldwin 0, McKinney 0
Glad to see Ralph Nader taking away votes from Obama in Missouri, and this makes him behind, yeah! Hopefully we will see this trend in other states too. Obama will need to have a MIRACLE if he's going to win this election.
Hopefully his campaign has be brought down further now that the McCain campaign has outed Obama as being a socialist/communist.
Posted on October 20, 2008 1:41 PM
So what is the real story in Ohio? Can anyone figure this out?
Posted on October 20, 2008 1:45 PM
Ohio is a very pro-America state, the heartland of America. I think what you're seeing is that the polling is all over the place now...though by the end of the day, come electiontime, when Obama's plan is realized as socialist, he will lose by at least 10 points there, as the people of not only Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Colorado (states which Obama needs to win) won't tolerate a socialist. It's finished for Obama, essentially.
Posted on October 20, 2008 1:52 PM
Right now we have an odd mix of recent polls in Ohio (including a Zogby Internet poll), so I think that is part of why it is so confusing. Unfortunately that means I really can't give you a great answer, although if you held a gun to my head I would suggest Obama currently has a small advantage in voter preference (say around three points).
Posted on October 20, 2008 1:55 PM
These Suffolk results sound too ridiculous.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:00 PM
Alan is right. Obama is loosing.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:03 PM
You guys can have Missouri if we get Ohio. That sounds like a pretty fair deal to me.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:06 PM
I guess I must be anti-American since I live in the (very) blue state of MN. Maybe when McCain is president he can invade Minnesota and liberate our people!
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:08 PM
Hey good to see your funny-bone is still hard at work. You're very funny; great routine. Too bad we can't arrange for a bet using some serious moolah on the election outcome. Not only do most people have no idea of what socialism is, but Palin can't even spell it. She and the other GOP dung-fleas will know how to spell this phrase though -- OBAMA LANDSLIDE.
Peace, Comrade Alan
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:09 PM
I'll play devils advocate. Perhaps the pollster wanted to skew the Ohio numbers to counter some of the most recent Ohio polls showing it tied or Mccain up within margin of error so they polled more liberal areas of the state and countered with a poll making Missouri look closer so their Ohio results look less biased. My feeling is the two are probably more or less tied in both states with Obama probably having a slight edge in Missouri and Ohio just too close to call. Though after Ohio's Joe the Plumber perhaps Ohio has a small bump for Mac.
RE; McPalins socialism
Socialist...hmm...Obama a socialist. That sounds familiar...seems like Obama is the most prominent AA since MLK...didn't angry white conservatives say he was a communist.
Seriously guys, at least come up with something original. To bad J Edgar is not around anymore. He may be able to help you come up with something new.
McCain has "outed" Obama as a "socialist/communist" (if you are smarter than just to call names, you must know the difference -- which is it?) on the basis that Obama wants to change the numbers on some brackets of our graduated income tax system. If McCain does not know after 26 years in Congress that the graduated income tax is not "socialist" (McCain's word), he is very, very dumb. If he does know, he is a cynical liar. Which do you think?
P.s. if you think Alan Keyes is awesome, you must know something about him that the rest of us don't.
Yeah, because the GOP ticket has never called the Democratic ticket "socialist" before... Man! What a great plan!
That McCain is a freakin genuis! I mean, he has the gall to call Obama a socialist in the midst of GOP sponsored nationalization of an entire industry. Freakin' brilliant!
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:10 PM
alankeyesisawesome God you sound like you need an education.
enjoy your wildest dream until nov.4 7 p.m. ET.
when the poll booth closes in VA, the race is over... because the exit poll will immediately announce Obama victory in VA.... Obama is +10 in VA in Rasmussen poll (today released)
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:11 PM
The story in Ohio is that the state is trending toward Obama - a trend that is being repeated in most states, including Missouri where a month ago McCain was ahead by 5-10 points.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:12 PM
Who cares about Ohio? This thing is over. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, possibly North Carolina, and likely Florida are going blue. Ohio can join in, but it doesn't matter. Obama is heading for his inauguration day. Period. End of story. Intrade has Obama at near 87%. Don't waste time arguing with GOP dung fleas.
Low budget troll off the port bow!
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:13 PM
though i dont disagree wtih your assessment that virginia appears to be going blue, it won't be because of exit polls. if that were the case, kerry would have been declared the winner in florida, colorado, new mexico and ohio very early on election night in 2004.
McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end this war in Iraq. A Republican is a Republican. I don't trust McCain and Palin.
It has been 8 long years since 2000 and Bush was elected president by our U.S. Supreme Court in a 5 to 4 vote. Get to the polls and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden!
VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:16 PM
I am continually amazed by conservative/republican types like "alankeyesisawesome." I've just never seen people so desperate to blindly follow. They can verbatim parrot exactly the catch phrases and talking points of their candidate without examining them or judging their value for themselves. Just fascinating human beings. "Keyes" managed to parrot back "socialist" and "pro-America" all in one comment. Either that is a caricature of a Republican, or someone is deliberately trying to make Repubs looks uninformed. It's working either way.
- Former McCain supporter with a mind of his own
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:18 PM
I agree completely. National polls do not matter. And Obama does not have to win every single swing red state to win this election. However, McCain does.
This thing is over. Lets not argue with the stupid trolls. Let them dream a few more days. Dreaming is is all they have at this point.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:20 PM
The problem is that McCain has thrown around so many insults people not ignore him.
According to McCain...
Obama is a Muslim, Terrorist, Christian who's pastor hates America, Messiah, "The One", "That One", Muslim (again), Terrorist (again), A Socialist, A "Community Organizer", Oh an a LIBERAL!
I'm confused and I blame McCain, I can only process 3 attacks at a time!
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:21 PM
First boomshak and now alankeyes. You guys take the troll bait way too easily. Just ignore them, they really ruin these threads.
"alankeyesisawesome" is one of the people recruited by the Republicans to sow dissent online. He/she/it is little more than a bot jumping from site to site pasting in the party's spin. You can safely ignore it as having no consequence.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:23 PM
I meant, people "now ignore" him and ...Oh, and a LIBERAL sorry for the typo's.
Well, I know I'm only from California and therefore, according to alankeyesisawesome I am not "pro-American" whatever that means. But I've finally gotten comfortable with the following concept: F**k Ohio. We don't need it. Obama can win this thing without those yahoos. I remember in the last election some pundit saying, after Bush was leading in Florida "well, it's all up to Ohio now." That's when I turned the TV off. I'm glad Obama pursued a 50 state strategy if for NO other reason than nobody should want anything to be "up to Ohio"
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:24 PM
Suffolk University is ranked halfway down on 538's site in regards to reliability... I don't know about those Ohio numbers... It really depends how well they are polling SE Ohio. The republican pollsters are showing more republicans participating, the other pollsters disagree.
Having lived here for so many years, I would say that this state is still a tossup. It depends on how many votes the Republicans plan to steal via the court system.
Haha, don't be silly...anyone with a mind in this election cycle is voting republican. And I believe that you "former mccain supporters" were always democrats all along. So stop trying to sabotage our chances as republicans.
Up by nine points is 'loosing' (sic)?
Are you the lady who thought Obama was a Arab?
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:26 PM
LOL, yeah, the Chicago Tribune and the Houston Chronicle were just Democrats all along, right?
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:27 PM
I have pretty good respect for Rasmussen and this Missouri number is 7 off. Ohio by 9? Yeah right. Of the red battlegrounds, Ohio and NC will be closest, even if it turns into an Obama landslide.
Dream on McCain supporters. You want to call Obama a socialist? Who proposed one of the largest bail-outs for mortage companies, in essence socializing their losses by paying face value on their bad mortgages their holding. Who proposed a $5,000 refundable tax credit for health insurance.
You republicans try to throw out a key buzz word in the hopes that it will incite fear amongst mostly uninformed republican base. Only one problem, you've tried it one too many times and public is onto you.
So let me throw out a buzz-word to describe McPalin and I believe this word is actually accurate, FASCIST. Below is a quote that best describes this radical, republican party(and I'm not talking about the Colin Powell type republicans):
"Their primary rules are: never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it."
This was what the US Office of Strategic Services used to describe Adolf Hitler and the Nazis before the US got into the war.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:28 PM
I live in Ohio, just East of Columbus off 70. Thanks to people like Alan, I'm voting for Obama!!
I can't support a party that supports what people like Alan supports, I won't soil my ballot by marking McCain/Palin, those who preach hate.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:29 PM
you know what i find hilarious about all this. republicans are thanking their lucky stars that mccain is up by a point in missouri. yikes, are you guys in trouble or what. we're sitting here arguing over whether obama can win ohio when he doesnt even HAVE to win ohio to win this election. we could lose ohio and florida and still win this election easily
Man, you really need to come up for air and stop drinking the red Kool-Aid.
Coming from (formerly) blood-red Indiana, I can tell you that a lot of "former McCain supporters" are really Republicans. (now, don't cry!) I think it's funny that you would label somebody like William Milliken, the longest-serving Michigan governor of Michigan (and a Republican0 ad a "Democrat". I'm sure Gov. Milliken would find it amusing, too. He's a clssic case: he withdrew his support of McSlime/Brainless when they turned their campaign rallies into something akin to what we saw in Nurenberg circa 1935.
I think "Family Guy" summed it up best last night when they had the Nazis wearing McCain/Palin campaign buttons.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:34 PM
THis race is not tightening! Folks we may be approaching landslide territory! That Powell endorsment may have solidified Obama's support even more! And I am hearing that AA turnout is way up!
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:36 PM
I know Obama doesn't "need" Ohio, but I want Ohio. And a whole bunch of other swing states. We know who will win this election. The key now is winning a clear mandate. That, and redrawing the political map to put the Repugs in such a deep hole it will take them 20 years to dig out. Go, Ohio! Let's rack up those early votes, then sock it away on election day.
By the way, anyone who thinks "Joe the Plumber" helps McCain in Ohio has a hole in his head. The guy was thoroughly exposed as a fraud and a tax chiseler in the local Toledo media. The real Ohio plumbers--trained and licensed union plumbers who make $45K to $50K a year, have seen their real income decline under Bush, would get a tax cut under Obama, and don't have the time of day for a phony who makes $40K a year as an unlicensed handyman, doesn't pay his taxes, and goes around pretending to make $250K a year so he can hound the Democratic presidential candidate---had a field day bashing him from head to toe.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:38 PM
If Democrats are Socialists then Republicans are Fascists. Doesn't this sentence show how ridiculous this is?
"Who is the real Barack Obama?"
"What is the real Virginia?"
How about, "How impossible are McCain's chances now?"
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:41 PM
100,000 people in St Louis and 75,000 people in Kansas City attended Obama rallies this past Saturday. John McCain is speaking at a high school in Belton today.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:42 PM
Let's take the wingnuts here at their word and assume (charitably) that they aren't avatars for a right-wing boiler room.
If that is true, we have to wonder how literate citizens can express such apparently delusional sentiments. I think that there is one reasonable answer: fear.
Some Americans feel an undertow sucking away th biases and simple nostrums they've grown up on. They're beginning to sense that the O'Reilly/Limbaugh/Cheney looking glass is, actually, entertaining fiction and that they will soon have to wake up to a more complicated and challenging world.
Our choices are obvious. Expressing schadenfreud is fun. And getting angry is easy. But, if we aspire to leading the opinions of a better country, we need to do something more positive.
Here, then, is a plea for calm, gracious civility. Find the love. Express as best you can the ways in which their ideas are mistaken without pushing them further into a defensive crouch. When they make reasonable arguments, acknowledge them.
And, most of all, don't let's be afraid. This country has made amazing progress in the last century toward open, harmonious and free coexistence. The last eight years have challenged us like no time since the fifties but we still managed to avoid McCarthyism and riots in the streets.
We will be better and we will be best if we treat the angry and bitter wingnuts with the same generosity of spirit that we would people with more advanced forms of mental disorders.
I grew up in the other Belton (Texas). The town had 15,000 people which is larger than the typical McCain rally.
I live in a city now that has 50,000 people, half of the size of the crowd that showed up to hear Obama in St. Louis.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:45 PM
This election could still go either way, of course the odds of that happening though appear less and less likely as time passes on. So instead of calling reupblicans nasty names, and then being hypocritical and calling all republicans nasty, why not just discuss all the realalistc possibilities?
with 2 weeks left to go, lots could still happen. 5 points seems to be the reasonable spread to work with today so lets say 5 points is what in fact seperates the candidates today. then, perhaps there is an intervening event that shifts two percent of obama supporters over to mccain, making the national race an essential tie, or, on the other hand, shifting 2 or 3 mccain points over to obama, making the race pretty likely over. but lets say for sakes of this discssion its a 2-5 point race by election day. as a result, the state polls would likely tighten up. so then we look at what mccain has to then carry: OH, FL, MO, NC, NV (not out of the question, especially if polls in these states tighten some) plus VA & CO (seems more out of the question even if polls tighten.) So where can he make up he VA & CO electoral votes? PA? Is there a reason McCain and Obama both spend countless rallys and dollars in this solid blue state? Do their internal pollings pick up on something the commercial pollsters do not?
Anyway I see these two paths to the white house being just about mccains only opportunities - either all the swings plus VA and CO, or all the swings plus some suprise knock over state like PA. Now obviously the counter to that is Obama's path to the white house, which based on current polling is a much easier path. If he carries PA plus any of the remaining toss ups (including VA or CO) he seems a lock.
Therefore its not over. Theres still 15 days left to go in this race. Things can change and McCain still has routes to the white house. The only polls that count are the ones taken on election day. So ignore those who are spewing hate or just trying to fire people up (on either side of the argument) and let your political junkies loose and have fun conjuring up scenarios in which either candidate can get to the white house. Personally I think its more fun coming up with scenarios for the underdog just because there are far fewer of them.
It is interesting that the reference to socialist is springing up. There is not, by the definition of socialism, a socialist tendency in Obama's policies. Since the linking to terrorists has failed, why not try to reinvent the fears of the cold war.
I have never heard or read any credible evidence that Obama wants to eliminate capitalism as the basis for the US economy.
As for the communist philosophy, that is even further off mark! The Smurfs were communists and that isn't even close to what Obama suggested!
Now, McCain's policies, especially since the selection of Palin, are showing a much closer correlation to fascism than capitalism. Why else would McCain choose 'country first' as his slogan while attempting to get closer with business and religion? If this is the case, should we not be concerned about the shifting of the republican party to the nazi party?
The concept that either candidate is for anything other than capitalism is absurd. But McCain's ticket doesn't seem to get it.
"Socialist" is the farthest back in history the McCant has reached for a new negative label
When was the last time there was a Socialist witch hunt in America? The 50's?
Congrats McCant supporters! You have a new fear to worry about now, instead of focusing on the TOTAL FAILURE the GOP has been in this country for the past 8 years.
Add Socialist to your fear list of :
None of these are real, none of them even stand up for the GOP when they are no longer helpful. It's amazing how Obama suddenly did not have an experience issue anymore according to McCant as soon as Caribou Barbie hit the ticket.
Aren't you tired of the same richest 1% of the population scaring you into voting for them and then rolling out their "real" platform that has nothing to do with you or your life.
Do you own Halliburton?
Do you own a Wall St bank?
Are you an oil company?
You have the blood of every dead Soldier in Iraq on your hands
Every dollar lost in your home value is your fault
Every foreclosure is your fault
Every lost job is your fault
Every homeless Veteran is your fault
You ruined our country. YOU,the GOP voters are the real Anti-American. Your politicians are the terrorists.
Stop living in fear, Obama wants to to do for the 99% of Americans what the GOP and McCant have done and want to do for the 1% they really represent. Let them have peace. prosperity and justice.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:50 PM
Looking at the MoE, these polls show (uhmmmm... ~ 90? 95? % probability of the REAL results being within...
Obama -> 47-55 %
McCain -> 38-46 %
Obama -> 40-48 %
McCain -> 41-49 %
Therefore, methodologically speaking, these polls claim to ALSO predict chances that Ohio is almost tied with Obama 47, McCain 46 and that Missouri goes Obama 48, McCain 41...
[And so much for small samples.]
The biggest problem for McCain is you can't really call VA a toss up anymore. He has got to completely flip at least one leaning blue or blue state.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:51 PM
BTW, didn't Obama already beat Alan Keyes?
Try destroyed him. Utterly.
Posted on October 20, 2008 2:58 PM
I looked carefully at the numbers here for Missouri and they line up almost perfectly with the 2004 exit poll in terms of demographics, but instead of a 7 point win for Bush, this is a slight lean for McCain. I think the poll has good data, but the real question comes down to turnout and who turns out. Clearly the momentum is on Obama's side, and Missouri isn't a state that will change the outcome of the election (though McCain must keep it just like all of the other toss-ups). That can have the effect of reducing the loser's side of the turnout and increasing the winner's side of the turnout. I think the economy and change are also the biggest draws for the polls this cycle, and those things favor Obama a great deal.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:01 PM
True, and I pretty much agree which is why I said it would be a very difficult state for McCain to flip. Still, in the broader sense I consider it a toss up if for no other reason due to the fact that the water has yet to be tested whether a democrat can carry it. hasnt happened in over 40 years.
Its been driving me crazy trying to figure out why it is his campaign is spending the time and money in PA they are not in VA. Do they think they have a better shot at PA than VA?
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:06 PM
These polls are retarded and totally backwards.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:27 PM
You’re right that McCain would have to take OH, FL, MO, NC, NV, VA, and CO to win. Obama leads in them all right now. Even if McCain closes the gap by 5 points, which is a lot to hope for in two weeks, especially when Obama is outspending him 3 to 1, Obama would still lead in CO and VA by 1 point. Even if Obama’s lead in PA is actually half what the polls say, McCain still can’t win it with a 5 point swing.
Now do the math. Even if it were 50/50 for McCain in OH, FL, MO, NC, NV, VA, and CO, for him to take every single one of them, it would be 0.5 to the 7th power, or 0.781%. So if McCain can somehow even things up in those seven battleground states, he would still have less than a 1% chance to win. It’s looking pretty bleak for him.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:33 PM
By the way, I do think in the end that McCain will take NC and perhaps MO and OH, but CO and VA are out of his reach and FL and NV are nearly so.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:43 PM
You forgot "celebrity"..thats an attack for the record books
I feel the same about Ohio, if they dont go blue this time they can go scratch IMO. Although, I would never say they weren't "Pro-American"
OBAMA MAY WIN BUT SOUNDS AS IF WE ARE ELECTING A VERY WEAK CANDIDATE. THIS YEAR THE DEMS SHOULD HAVE WALKED RIGHT INTO THE WHITE HOUSEBUT THE STRUGGLE CONTINUES
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:31 PM
IF BIDEN THINKS THE WORLD WILL TEST OBAMA WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE CONSERVATIVES DO TO HIM
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:42 PM
Posted on October 20, 2008 5:13 PM
I have to give 'alankeysisawesome' credit, the deadpan delivery on "It's finished for Obama, essentially" made me laugh on an otherwise stressful day at work.
Dude, you should have been doing communiques from the Fuehrerbunker in 1945. "All we have to do is turn things around on the eastern front, and the western front, the Baltic, and Italy, and the air, and the sea, and it's in bag. The Allies are finished, essentially."
Posted on October 20, 2008 5:18 PM
Posted on October 20, 2008 6:37 PM
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