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SurveyUSA: GA, IN, OH, NJ (9/29)

Topics: PHome

Georgia (9/28-29/08; 677 LV, 3.8%)
McCain 52, Obama 44
Sen: Chambliss (R-i) 46, Martin (D) 44, Buckley (L) 5

Indiana (9/28-29/08; 687 LV, 3.8%)
McCain 48, Obama 45
Gov: Daniels (R-i) 53, Long Thompson (D) 37, Horning (L) 6

Ohio (9/28-29; 693 LV, 3.8%)
McCain 49, Obama 48

New Jersey (9/27-28/08; 611 LV, 4%)
Obama 52, McCain 42
Sen: Lautenberg (D-i) 51, Zimmer (R) 38

 

Comments
Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

This is where the majic happens. Obama is within striking distance in IN and OH. After the Presidential debates on domestic affairs, I think he'll pick up at least one of the two states.

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jamesia:

The Ohio poll has a +1% Republican affiliation... That was the poll I was most interested in here, and once I saw that absurdity...

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1magine:

OH poll is a disaster!!! JM getting 30+% AA vote. They must have been thinking about another dimension. Try again.

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jamesia:

Also the poll shows Obama winning 85% of the African American vote, McCain winning 14%. Also, I'm from Hamilton County, Cincinnati. Obama will win more than 40% of the vote there.

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1magine:

Sorry -0 CORRECTION THAT'S 15% - I was thinking about the other OH poll. Still 1+% Rep lean and 15% AA voting for JM? Poorly conducted, or just odd result. Seriously anyone think JM gets 15% AA in OH? Anyone? Even Kerry got more than 85%.

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rashi2006:

stop nitpicking on the black vote. the subsample of AA is about 70 people. So 15 percent of that is around 10 AA McCain supporters in ohio they interviewed. Would you be happier if it was 5? Either way its too small of a sample size to bother with so why not leave it alone.

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KipTin:

OK... How are the results of this Ohio poll so much different from the latest Fox/Rasmussen and Insider Advantage?

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KipTin:

Good point on the AA sample being so small.

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billreef:

This poll is all messed up. It has Bama winning +50 and McDufis winning -50 aside from the obvious AA error.

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cinnamonape:

Also look at the quirky age differences in Indiana and Ohio. In the latter there is almost no distinctions at all by age +65 has almost the same split as 18-29?

And the same problem with the AA vote in Indiana.

Very odd.

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cinnamonape:

Also take a look at the weird gender differential in Georgia. Men almost split between McCain and Obama, but women are about 10 points in favor of McCain?

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jamesia:

@ rashi

I personally don't care who's in the lead. I was just remarking on polling technique and accuracy. That's what commenting on this site is (supposed to be) for...

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MNLatteLiberal:

I demand a MN poll! Hear me?! DEMAND!

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Ryan in MO:

Where is an accurate MO poll?!?!?!? I just drove this past weekend 200 miles across the state, from Springfield to St Louis, and I saw Obama signs and bumper stickers 10 to 1 over McCain. STL is all Obama. SW MO is all Obama, Central MO from Rolla to Columbia and Jeff City are ALL Obama. Who the HE double hockey sticks are these pollsters calling in MO to get McCain leads?!?!!?

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burrito:

@Ryan in MO :

Did you bother to go to any country clubs? That is where most of McCain supporters hang out!!

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Ryan in MO:

Nope... Just the regular common Jane's and Joe's at the last two Cards games (my Reds lost both, and some fast food stops and gas stations.

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Angus Mc:

My god, look at that Georgia Senate result. Chambliss is only +2 and well under 50%?

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carl29:

In another example that for me fair is fair, no matter who benefits from it.

Indiana: This SurveyUsa sample has almost equal % of Democrats vs. Republicans, 1% advantage for Republicans, which in my opinion in far from accurate. Indeed SurveyUsa's previous poll back in August had a 6% party ID advantage for Republicans, which for me sounds in the low range of party advantage for the GOP. So, in light of McCain's reduced party ID advantage, in my opinion, IN is much more in favor of McCain than this poll might suggest. To me, McCain is up in IN around 10%, maybe 55% vs. 45% :-(

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thirdparty:

It's worth noting that for OH and IN, while Obama is behind in both, he has actually improved from the last SurveyUSA polls. The previous SUSA poll for IN had McCain +6, while the previous one in OH had McCain +4.

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ericsp28:

I live in Texas and have hardly seen any McCain bumperstickers or lawn signs. I see more Obama stickers than McCain, but I don't hold any hope that Obama will win in Texas.

I think conservatives in general are not that ethusiastic about McCain. They'll vote for him, but they aren't going to proclaim their support publicly.

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carl29:

Ohio: This state is really showing movement in Obama's direction.

The previous SurveyUsa poll back in Sep.15 gave the Democrats a 9% party ID advantage, and not withstanding McCain led Obama by 4%, 49% vs. Obama's 45%.

This SurveyUsa poll has a less democratic sample, Democrats have a 6% party ID advantage, a 3% loss in party for Obama. In addition a 2% increase in Republicans, from 35% in the previous poll to 37% in this poll. However, in spite of a more McCain-friendly sample than the previous poll, McCain now leads by 1%, a 3% loss from the previous poll.

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mj1:

Nice to see that McCain wasted time and resources in NJ. Every presidential election, the republicans see the Jersey polls close a little bit and rush in with money and resouces only to see the poll numbers go democratic and the state go blue again. This time, that money and time would have been better spent in VA or NC. Tactical blunder.

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sempervirens:

Well -- if one considers that having a McCain - Palin bumpersticker is something like plastering a "Kick Me -- I'm a Moron" sign on your car. . . . .

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brambster:

HELLO!!!

Only one person seems to have noticed that the Georgia race is showing Chambliss only 2 points over Martin in Georgia while the presidential race in that state is in the expected margins.

I believe that the Libertarian candidate with 5% only makes Chambliss' chances better, as they will mostly migrate to Chambliss by election day, but it is a race that is now within striking distance.

Democrats now have a slight possibility of hitting 60 in the Senate, and if this ends up being a blowout for Obama (350+), I could certainly see this happening. People are largely very unhappy with Republicans, and this could be seismic. Note the word "could".

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blindboy662:

Obama may move in the polls in Ohio and Indiana, but unless the McCain team makes a real stinker he will most likley not move that much. Of course Palin has not had to really answer many questions, talking to the public may hurt.

It will be hard for Team Obama to hit 350, that's a fairy tale without something really bad taking place. But congress has more problems than Bush, the Dems will win big.

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faithhopelove:

SUSA's IN poll gives Obama hope there. SUSA's trend is from +6 McCain to just +3 McCain. Moreover, SUSA did not include the names of the VP candidates or 3rd-party candidates in its questioning. These omissions favor McCain, as Palin has become a drag on his ticket, and former Republican Bob Barr may take some votes from him. Barr received a plug yesterday from Politico for his opposition to the bailout plan; voters who are strongly opposed to this plan may look for a 3rd option. Barr's upcoming schedule has him campaigning in IN. (Ralph Nader is not on the ballot there.)

As has been noted above, the party ID breakdown in this poll is unlikely. Republicans almost certainly have a greater advantage in IN than +1. However, other numbers in this poll's crosstabs point to the possibility of an under-sampling of Obama's support. The male/female ratio of 49%/51% is closer than the 2004 IN exit poll's 48%/52%. The probability that McCain and Obama will split the 18-34 vote 50/50 cannot be high. And does anyone truly believe that Obama will win less than 9 out of 10 African-Americans, as this poll suggests?

SUSA does not call cell phones. Multiple studies have now found that the exclusion of cell phone only voters under-estimates Obama's support by 2-3%--which in this case would put the best estimate of the true figure exactly even.

GOTV efforts may be the difference in this tight state. On the ground there, Obama has 36 field offices; McCain has 1. The money race in IN has been very close, with Obama leading McCain by 2 counties. See:
http://www.newscloud.com/read/Obama_leads_money_chase_in_key_counties?skipSplash


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richardkreed:

Spin it all you want guys; it still shows McCain ahead (even in this, his darkest hour), in Ohio, Indiana, and Georgia - three states Obama thought he might well win. And perhaps he eventually might, but.....

The part I like, however, is the unexpectedly large Libertarian vote for U.S. Senate in a couple of those states. Suspect a lot of people will vote Libertarian this year, expecially down ballot.

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Gary Kilbride:

Democrats aren't stealing anything in Georgia. That Chambliss margin is pure comedy. In 2006, even in a heavily Democratic-leaning second term midterm, the only two incumbents Democrats nearly lost were two House races in Georgia.

You never take poll margins in Alaska or Georgia at face value. The GOP is understated by several points.

I'm begging Intrade to react further to that silly Chambliss poll. It moved the price 7% on Tuesday.

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Dan:

Anyone thinking Obama will win IN is dreaming. The last time a dem won that state was LBJ (over a GOP senator no less). The voting population is highly skewed with Gary and the Chicago area heavily in BO's favor, but the rest of the state tilting JM's way. Many other states will swing BO's way before IN, and the election would be well over.

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