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Thanksgiving Leftover "Outliers"

Topics: Outliers Feature

ABC News reports the lowest level of consumer confidence since they started tracking in 1985.

Michael McDonald updates his estimates of 2008 turnout

David Moore asks pollsters to comment on the 2008 pre-election poll "convergence mystery."

PPP recaps their summer tests of matchups of Democrats against Mel Martinez.

ABC's Peyton Craighill examines exit poll data on the 2008 "flip states" that went for Bush in 2004 but Obama in 2008.

Jennifer Agiesta looks at poll and focus group data on how voters view the Obama transition.

Sheri and Allan Rivlin offer advice to Democrats on how to hold their majority.

Brookings posts a 91-page PDF transcript of their political scientist panel discussion of the 2008 election (via Nyhan).

Andrew Gellman shares Ben Lauderdale's maps and charts of estimated Obama-McCain vote among non-blacks by county.

Ruy Teixeira digs into the 2008 exit polls.

Nate Silver says Obama's popular vote margin is the largest ever for a non-incumbent.

John Sides warns aganst using the exit polls to examine turnout.

Brenden Nyhan flags Kathleen Parker for confusing correlation with causation.

Patrick Ruffini makes a good point about what the Georgia runoff result may tell us about turnout on 11/4.

Barry Ritholtz warns of misreading of survey-based reports on Black Friday sales (via Sullivan).

Carl Bialik notes the failure of the "big state primary theory."

Nielsen adds up the ad buy for Obama and McCain during 2008.

 

Comments
RS:

Just a couple thoughts:
Carl Bialik, with all due respect, is saying something I think most sane people *knew* way back when the "big state primary" nonsense was being put out. [And yes, I am an Obama supporter. But still...] Nobody in their right minds thought NY, CA etc. would go for McCain if Obama was the nominee.
[One can nitpick about PA, OH and FL, but Obama always had ways to win without these three states.]

Second, Professor McDonald suggests the higher turnout in states like AL could have been because of higher turnout among African-Americans excited to vote for Obama. I just looked up the results reported by CNN, and it looks like Obama won 117,831 more votes than Kerry; but McCain also won 88,485 votes more than Bush. As a fractional increase, the Democratic turnout (African-Americans) was higher... But whether through enthusiasm for Palin or antipathy toward Obama*, McCain did see a vote increase over Bush in AL at least, even as turnout decreased in other reliably red states. I wonder if the same pattern holds for the other southern states (GA, MS, SC).

*Obviously, nobody was enthusiastic about McCain ;-)

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DTM:

I'll be very interested to see what pollsters say in response to David Moore's request.

Just speaking off the cuff, I do wonder if there was some deliberate convergence. Obviously some of the major pollsters look pretty clean, such as Rasmussen who was consistent throughout, or Gallup which actually went the wrong way at the end. On the other end, to my eye IBD/TIPP looks the most suspicious. And then there is Pew--I don't really believe they did anything deliberate, but they sure contributed to the convergence.

Anyway, I look forward to seeing if there is a more objective way to sort through this.

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