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The LeBron Factor 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

McClatchy Newspapers is dropping its contract with Ipsos (via Goddard).

Nate Silver and Andrew Gelman respond to an "open letter" from John Zogby.

John Sides is annoyed with interpretations taken from focus groups.

Gary Langer notes that the Justice Department took the popular route in its Arizona immigration challenge.

Resurgent Republic says independents support conservative policies.

Mark Mellman assesses whether America is still number one.

David Hill notices local governments raising taxes in hard times.

Chris Cillizza finds most Tea Party supporters are Republican.

Jonathan Chait explains "paradoxes of congressional behavior."

Tom Jensen notices a wild swing in Rasmussen's NC Senate numbers and asks for a way to judge polls throughout the election cycle; Jim Geraghty questions PPP's objectivity in the race.

Bob Groves explains how Census quality is assessed.

Jim Geraghty wonders about the political ramifications of a LeBron James move.

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Emily, might i suggest an addition to the list of 'outliers'. I thought the Sean Trende column today at RCP was great.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/08/the_politics_of_arizonas_immigration_law_106221.html

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John:

Given their pretty excellent track recond for polling in their home state of NC, I'm not sure Jim Geraghty has picked the best avenue of attack against PPP.


@FM

Interesting article. While Trende does make a good point about 'the Prop 187 killed the California GOP narrative', I think he might be overlooking a couple of points. Firstly democrat support among hispanic voters in California stand about 75% with about 30% support of the 'controversial' laws. So it is unlikely many republican hispanic voters opposed the measures.
This is compared to about 60% hispanic democrat support in Arizonia. Strangely I can't find a poll of hispanic voters on the Arizona law, but among all adults it seems to be at about 20%. Hence there must be a significant numbers of hispanic voters who had previously voted republican who oppose this law. This is not the same as california.

Secondly, the hispanic share of the Arizona electore is growing at a considerable pace, and the republicans should be aiming to do more than mantain there share of the hispanic vote. However, the law could colour the opinion (on all issues) of otherwise amienable voters.

Of course there will be a significant number of white democrat voters who support the law, and they may cancel out any loss among hispanic voters.

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