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The Limits Of Daily Numbers

Topics: 2008

My National Journal column, which discusses the Gallup Daily national survey, is now online.

 

Comments
Gloria:

I have an off-topic polling question which I would hope someone can answer. Let's say an exit poll has Candidate A beating Candidate B, 41% to 35%. The same exit poll numbers have Candidate B winning the self-identified "conservative" vote by 2% points. Once all the votes are counted, however, Candidate A beat Candidate B by 11% points, not 6%, as the exit poll indicated.

My question is, will the data in the exit poll be "normalized" to reflect the 11% point victory, and not the 6% point victory? Do some networks do this, and others not? Is it possible that once the normalization takes place, Candidate A, and not Candidate B, actually won the "conservative" vote?

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Eric:

One thing jumped out about the Gallup methodology as described in the article: in states that have already voted, they're using the self-report of voting as the screen, whereas (as established in other posts) for likely voters elsewhere they're using a very loose screen that lets about 80% in. It seems like those are two different populations that they're trying to reconcile into a national sample. Any idea as to how they're addressing this or whether it is a real concern?

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Concerned Citizen:

EXCUSE ME, HATE TO BREAK UP YOUR FIGURES AND CALCULATIONS: But why did ALL of you FORGET about ALL the candidates?
No wonder why candidates drop out, they are not all being treated the same way. Mike GRAVEL has some great ideas about how we should run our country, and no body cares. He has not gotten any time to talk. No polls list him, no debates called on him, he doesn't exist. He isn't even on all the ballots for the dem primary. That's another thing: Why do we have to only have 1 dem, 1 republican, 1 green party? 130 some odd schmucks all vied to be the governor of california. They all had the chance to be listed in the offical pamphlet to the voters. Yet we have to narrow down the playing field for President? That's crap!!!!

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