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The Popular Vote's Margin of Error

Topics: 2008 , Measurement

My NationalJournal.com column, which looks at the pollster concept of measurement error in the context of counting popular vote cast in the Democratic presidential contest, is now online.

 

Comments
BitJam:

Glenn Hurowitz and Gregory P. Nini recently released a study:
How Would Primaries Have Changed the Results in Caucus States?
(6 page pdf).

They use demographics to estimate what the popular vote would have been if caucus states used primaries instead. They seem to have avoided the obvious pitfalls. Their demographics show that Obama would have won most of the caucus states even if they held primaries.

I would have liked to see how much their results would change when their model was tweaked slightly.

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