Pollster.com

Wow.

There has to be something wrong with the Iowa one

Does this not make them strong blue yet? I suppose there are other polls, but way to go!

Obama/Biden 08-16'

You'd really would like to get underneath these numbers especially Ohio.

I don't know why Ohio has a smaller sample, crazy.

As this is News Entertainment who knows?

The Iowa poll is obviously an outlier, but he will probably win both Iowa & Minnestoa by double-digits. And let's not forget that Ohio will be decided after 1am when Cuyhoga country reports it's results. (As a side note, urban counties in Ohio have early voting at the end of this month). GOTV for Obama in September.

The stubborn Hillary supporters realize that the 200 year old Mccain represnets Bush's 3rd term rather than the 2000 Straight Talk Express. These numbers reflect the increase in the Hillary supporters moving over to Obama from undecided/lean MCcain.

How reliable is this poll, considering the CNN/ORC poll that came out this week had Obama and McCain tied nationally - unlike all(?) other national polls?
Besides - more voters interviewed in Iowa than in Ohio? That is backwards...

However, the sample-size methology sucks balls. The Ohio sample has to be atleast 1000-1200 people to be fairly accurate.

This is CNN/Time/ORC though. I think if it was only CNN then I would be more skeptical.

But I am not a professional pollster by any means.

McCain pretty much knows Iowa is off the table barring a huge Obama gaffe.
ohio is probably about right, its +1 or 2 either way like its been forever. Some of this is clearly bounce, polls will be tricky to track properly until late next week after the GOP bounce if any comes in.

McCain is not contesting Iowa, so given 6.5 percentage point Obama advantage in the (as yet to be updated) pollster.com average plus the movement in the national polls, this CNN poll looks to be a little high for registered voters, but not overly so. Like the McCain campaign, I expect Obama to win Iowa.

The recent national CNN/ORC poll still looks to me to be an outlier, and in good company with Zogby. But these were two different samples, so variation is to be expected.

@Robi:
I assume ORC is the pollster, and CNN or CNN/Time just says who paid for the poll...

Yeah but sample size not withstanding... midwest is going blue...Obama now has 82% of his base and McCain already has 90% of his base with no way to really increase that much more. Mccain may have peaked after this convention - then watch him slide.

K thanks for the info

Looking back to the caucuses, I can't imagine how McCain will remotely compete in Iowa. The only question is whether Obama rings up such a huge margin there that he takes down Ton Latham in the crossfire.

I don't really think so Scott (as much as I would like to).

I think the midwest is unsure still and after the convention, more will make up there minds and then there will be an undecided of maybe about 5-7%.

With all the negative advertising about to hit the TV, we have to see how the public reacts to it.

Make MN dark blue - like PA - and BHO has double the "strong" electoral votes compared to JMC.

This was always an uphill fight for the Republicans, and JMC will now have a harder and harder time to put together any sort of winning combination.

If the polls continue to go down after the Palin fiasco, I expect to see the facade of support for JMC's VP pick to crumble.

Wow spelling....

More will make up their** minds

Palin fiasco? heheeh, silly liberals, you guys never get it.

djneedle83: "clinton supporters moving to Obama"???

"In Iowa and Minnesota, white voters are backing Obama. In Ohio, white voters are supporting McCain. What about those blue-collar white voters that were so important for Clinton in Ohio? They're pretty solidly for McCain," Schneider said.

Politico is now showing Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy talking to Chuck Todd on a hot mike saying "it's over," and this before McCain even gives his speech. I find this whole fiasco very sad. The McCain Campaign should be sued for politico mismangement.

Iowa numbers seem big for Obama, but remember -- Iowa is actually one of McCain's worst former-Red states. Obama pretty much knocked on every single Democrats door in December last year, while McCain decided to skip the state. Plus, they HATE this views toward farmers/farming industry...

I can see Obama winning by 10+ definitely. MN too.

I heard John King saying that Obama and McCain are tied in the Cincinnati area of Ohio which is supposed to be a red county. Bad for the Reps!

This is how the Reps talk when they THINK that the mic is turned off-

After a segment with NBC's Chuck Todd ended today, Republican consultant Mike Murphy and Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan were caught on a live mike ridiculing the choice of Sarah Palin.
"It's over," said Noonan, and then responded to a question of whether Palin is the most qualified Republican woman McCain could have chosen.
"The most qualified? No. I think they went for this — excuse me — political bullsh** about narratives," she said. "Every time Republicans do that ... because that's not where they live and it's not what they're good at and they blow it."
Murphy chimed in:
"The greatness of McCain is no cynicism, and this is cynical."
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

Hey...all I can say at least palin has no nuts to chop off....

I need the audio or video of this PLEASE!

here ya go

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Noonan_Murphy_trash_Palin_on_hot_mic_Its_over.html

I think the Iowa is high but not by a lot. Minn is a tough state to tell with the RNC convention there. We'll know more after. And Ohio. . .
Ohio is always such a tough state to poll since the pockets of blue are so tight. I'd say that a 2 point lead (within the margin of error) after the Palin pick but before the convention sounds right. After the convention it will likely be tied or still within the margin of error.

We'll know more after the debates since so many undecideds or leaners are waiting for them to define themselves to the pollsters.

interesting tidbit on women's views of Palin from an Emily's List poll (didn't know where else to put this):

"Obama goes from a 44-percentage-point lead (69% to 25%) to a 54-percentage-point lead (75% to 21%) over McCain among these Clinton voters as they learn more about Sarah Palin's background and her positions on core issues.

Finally, [...] the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden continues to benefit from strong support of women voters. By an 11-percentage-point margin (52% to 41%), women voters support the Obama-Biden ticket over the McCain-Palin ticket, [...] well ahead of Kerry-Edward's performance among women voters in 2004 (+3 points Kerry-Edwards over Bush-Cheney)."

Stillow

those guys aren't Liberals are they?

I just jizzed in my pants like 10 times

Do they usually keep the mikes hot when they go to commercials?

@thoughtful

who?

@Robi

Uhhh, are you just now realizing the GOP belt way establishment does not like Palin? Its not really a secret....Palin is a grass roots pick, not an establishment pick....mos tof us have known since day 1 the belt way republicans don't like Palin.....she is a base pick. Thats one of the reasons mccain picked her is because she's not in the establishment...she's an outsider who appeals to the grass roots rank and file folks....

Mike Murphy and Peggy Noonan are not liberals and boy were they dissing her, McCain, MM was sounding like me with the cynicism!

Peggy Noonan is a conservative columnist for the Wall Street Journal that worked for Ronald Regan. I think she reflects much of the base and her candid analysis makes sense. But that's just my liberal subjective view :)

@thoughtful

see comment to robi.....are you guys actually surprised? It hasn't really been to big a secret the ruling elite i nthe GOP dislike palin a lot.

Stillow

It's a comedy! There is a desperate rear guard action underway over troopergate.

I'm kind of depressed because I like to get at the issues but Davis doesn't want to fight the election on issues he wants to go on personality and character.

Your side is predicated on lies and smears so enjoy!

@thoughtful

Right, where do you get this stuff, is there like a secret liberal bandbook you guys go to or soemthing?
........can i get a copy?

FOX NEWS, Britt Hume why not

Stillow:

I'm saying that all the Reps who say that this is great are really pissed off.

@thoughtful

I totally missed your middle comment, you guys wanna get at issues? Its the left and the media making character the center point of this whole thing! Trashing her daughter, slamming her husband, creating rumors about fake pregnancies, degrading her "expereince", questioning her honesty, demanding paternity tests (sheilds), looking into Nazi connections (msnbc).....
Don't tell me your side wants at issues, you guys are talking about anything but issues!!

thoughtful - Unless I misinterpret your comments, I'm guessing you're conservative - if that is the case, didn't you hear the quote from a McCain campaign staff "this election is not about the issues."

What do you want then?

@Robi

Again, trust me, the establishment hates her....the washington gop insiders do not like her and they do not really like mccain.

Stillow

Come on Obama is always addressing the issues.

McCain and your guys make things up and proffer lies 24/7.

It is very unfortunate that McCain has exploited Palin in this way. Quite honestly, she is nowhere near ready to be President of the United States. Sorry 5 months time, the country is not nuts!

captamericausa

The quote is from Rick Davis who is McCain's Campaign manager!

@thoughtful

your killin me, i just went thru all the issues the left and media are talking about...its all character assasination on mccain and palin....no issues at all.

the polls on drilling showing people favor the gop approach big time scared your side away from energy.....is slamming mccains age an issue? nope, its got nothing to do with issues.

Issues my arse....your whole side is all about personally attacking palin....nazi's to fake pregnancies.........and you claim to be for the issues....gimme a break man! You must be drinking the kool aid today.

"Come on Obama is always addressing the issues.

"

tee hee!

comedy

Stillow

McCain's age is an issue. He's 72.

Palin is an issue. You know what she stands for and it is not mainstream America,

With regards Energy and the Economy what has the Republican Part achoieved other than push Oil prices up on a global basis by distabalizing the world with their unilateral foreign policy and illegal war in Iraq.

There is no difference between McCain/Palin and Bush/Cheney same party same policies.

http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:Lh8LX8KyM6sJ:eagleforumalaska.blogspot.com/2006/07/2006-gubernatorial-candidate.html+sarah+palin+eagle+forum&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us&client=firefox-a

Stillow this should confirm your view of Sarah Palin

@thoughtful

ok so let me get this straight, McCains age is a valid issue, but obama's freindships with radical anti americans like ayers and wright is not? Thats negative to point that out.
Palin is an issue? Because she has a pregnant daughter? Or cus she is a nazi lover, which one is the relevant issue? Or is it her pro life stance? those are issues, but obama voting against protections for infants born alive who survive and abortion attempts is dirty politics if we bring it up?
Bush doing nothing aout oil is an issue, but clinton doing nothing is not an issue? Both had 8 years, both did zilch, but its only bush's issue.
is the economy an issue? the left tells us wer're in horrible shape, never been worse, the dram is dead, blah bl.....yet average unemployment rate under bush is lower than under clinton, hmmmm....or how about the # of people living in poverty is actually less than that under clinton, hmmmmm.
Issue's, you guys dont want to talk issues, you want to demonize the other side and make the other side look evil and uncaring. with bumper sticker politics about wanting kids to suffer without healthcare....

you guys are the biggest bunch of self rightous holier than thou arogant elittists on the planet....do as i say, not as i do.....

i used to think you guys just pretended to thinkthe way you do, i am realizing its actually true.......frightening.

Your ability to group the few bloggers on this site and group them together to reflect what the left, liberals, or the media actually thinks is naive.

Stillow-
That's not a fair criticism. What complaint did Obama have about the Rep convention? It was that they were not talking about the economy. Neither he nor Biden have ever criticised Palin. In fact they seem anxtious to change the subject.

Of course if you're talking about the media, that's different. They don't know anything about her and that is driving the frenzy. We do know that we cannot rely on the McCain campaign to tell us the truth. They said she was a reformer that was against wasteful government spending and was not the truth. They said they vetted her thoroughly and now we hear that the first in depth interview with her happened the day before she was chosen.

Stillow

I have posted her questionaire which The GOP took down this week but its still cached on Google. Those are Sarah Palin's issues. Don't muddy the issues with the personal stuff.

Yes people of 72 are likely to die and suddenly his father did and his Grandfather did and he ihas out lived both sure he has 96 year old mother. In his case at 72 a very experienced VP with proven leadership and who is worldly is important.

The stuff with Ayres is pure smear and distraction. Half the Republican politicians in Chicago you can tar with the same brush.

The Rev Wright is a true American Hero with a distinguished Marine career and a huge achievement of service in the Chicago community.

Again, no issues....last night was day 1 of the convention.....monday night obviously was not politcal. the economy will come....thompson touched on it last night even saying pow status doesn't qualify you to hold office, my job isn't to talk about why he is qualified, john willdo that himself, my job is to tell you who he is.....
Gimme a friggin break you guys. Who has time to talk about the economy when the loony left and media are attacking from every personal attack front possible?
Typical liberal spin, we need to talk about issues and come together...liberals define that as the gop doing what the libs want...

It is no darn wonder you guys cannot win national elections......

once again, another post descends into partisan madness. do you people just sit at your damn computers all day on the same site and fire back and forth at eachother? How do you get anything done!?

@thoughtful

You have totally lost it....Wright is an american hero....ok!
The absolute level of arogance on the left is beyond comprehension.
Let's talk issues........ooops i mean lets talk about being a nazi lover!
lets talk issues, but if you disagree with us your playign dirty politics......

buncha self important know everythings....

again i will say, it is absolutely no surprise you guys cannot win national elections!!!!

Did anyone see the sign behind MSNBC David Gregory a few minutes ago.

"You Vetted Bristol is Obama Next?"

I doubt it.

Stillow with the generalizatons.

I don't think rev wright is a hero so don't generalize everybody.

I do believe, however that the clips that are played over and over and over are taken incredibly out of context and the Republican campaigns thrive on people not looking into the real story behind his speeches.

But the guy isn't a politician and I would like to think that for every rev wright, there are a lot more Hagees out there (thank god Faldwell is dead).

I did but it's absurd because Obama has been vetted. He's been in the public eye for almost TWO YEARS!!! Sarah hasn't even had two weeks!

Mike_in_CA

Acording to the latest Rasmusson tracker:

"Obama currently leads McCain by fourteen points among women but trails by four among men."

I can't explain why the overall lead is 5%!

I can. They polled more men than women??

Mike Murphy was McCain's campaign manager in his 2000 bid. Peggy Noonan was a Regan and George H. W. Bush speech writer, a George W. Bush campaigner, and an active conservative.

Both are currently paid contributors to NBC/MSNBC and have appeared for years on the networks.

They only state the obvious. If anything, the "liberal media" is being too fair to McCain's chances as they benefit from the perception of a horse race, and good journalists and commentators generally do not call elections 2 months out on television. They do however posses their own personal views which were accidentally broadcast.

This goes down as one of those "duhh" moments.

The RNC convention is really turning out to be quite lackluster even when compared to past RNC conventions, let alone the DNC one last week.

I am however eager to see if Palin does a good job tonight or not. I suspect she will, but it won't change the election if she does. It would however hurt really, really bad if she sucks. I suspect her broadcast skills and 2 years as governor may well make her one of the best speakers at the convention. I have seen a debate with her and she comes off as being confident in the way she speaks.

So even though there are not necessarily low expectations for Palin's speech (just of Palin herself, and McCain for choosing her and how he chose her), this will likely work out as a positive for Palin.

@thoughtful,

hmm, that is interesting. An Emily's List poll out shows Obama winning by 18 among women! Granted, it was conducted by a Democratic polling firm.

For comparison -- John Kerry only won +3 among women. If Obama wins +18, the thing is officially over.

Palin will do very well tonight and I think she will do more than hold her own against Biden.

Very important to hit her on her social conservatism on her position as they are a matter of record. Foreign affairs, Econmic matters

I find it very funny that this "establishment" that Palin is apparently fighting is the same establishment that her party set up and I don't see any actual issue stance in foreign policy, civil rights, education rights, the economy and abortion rights that is any different from the current administration.

What is the change of policy in the government?

If I had to put the theme of her speech tonight in a very simple fashion, it would be:

YOU GUYS SUCK!

and the RNC shouting back

YES WE DO!

@Robi

I keep on saying that she is a female Dick Cheney 25 years younger!

I don't want to upset Stillow any further, but Palin's social conservatism is in denial of science and based on divine intervention.

Back to the polls --- the Iowa number does seem high, although Iowa has been consistently favoring Obama. As part of an Obama win scenario, I believes he needs Iowa, a state Kerry did not carry. The Minnesota number looks high also although again Obama has been favored in MN. I also believe he needs MN to win. Ohio will probably go back and forth. An Obama win in Ohio I would think would mean he wins the election. He can still win if he loses Ohio, but needs to win a significant state that Kerry did not like Colorado or Virgina, in addition to winning in Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

Wait Dick Cheney why?

Paul

I wouldn't count Obama out of Florida or North Carolina. We have a poll published today conducted pre-Convention with a 3% McCain lead but on the crosstabs based on AA participation of 20% and 18-29 year olds at 10% . I think weighting it Obama enjoys a small lead in reality.

When Obama was the center of media attention, McCain camp was whining about it although most of the coverage was negative. Now they say it is sexist when Palin is the center of the attention. I hope they got their lesson. More media coverage does not mean that it is a good thing!

If you use family matters (giving birth to a baby with Down syndrome, having 5 kids, being hockey mom etc.) for political gain, you should not whine when others use the negatives. Palin is not who she and McCain camp say she is. Palin is Dick Cheney version 2.0.

I'm not surprised the Palin pick seems to be going over less well with female voters. I can tell you as a woman, we're pretty harsh on other women. In the case of Palin, much of the criticism is very much deserved. Even if she delivers a peppy cheerleading speech tonight, I don't think it will translate into a sustained spike in poll numbers.

It's close to being over for McCain unless he unleashes all hell on Obama. For the sake of our country, I'd love nothing more than to see McCain lose. It's just a shame that thanks to his cynical move, it will probably be another 24 years before any party puts a woman on the presidential ticket again.

What is this with the Dick Cheney reference? I don't get it.

@DOCTN
Lets not count out Hillary Clinton running in 4 years as VP with the sudden and unexpected retirement of Joe Biden... setting her up for a 2016 shot at the POTUS... the Clintons fade only temporarily.

As for this woman who has absolutely zero record on womans issues UN-like Hillary Clinton, as women we have every right to come down on her "claims" to the 18M votes that Hillary Clinton worked hard for... I think most women agree... check Obamas new lead among women...which is demonstratively buoyed from more women with a tougher stance on Palin. The beauty queen image also doesnt help her either... ask most women what they thought of cheerleaders in high school. For her sake, I hope she stays away from being/sounding like she has pom poms under the podium tonight.

Its a shame, but I agree with you....she has unfortunaetly until tonight reinforced some negative steretypes about women in power... for the sake of the gender I hope they all get dispelled tonight... so hopefully she addresses the issues confronting her... turning the mirror on the media wont stop them from asking the tough questions and ensures 2 more weeks of this garbage... Anyone care about the economy anymore...

This race is over. McCain just threw away the experience card, the qualification card, its the only thing he had left.

Obama 297, McCain 241

All is quiet while the conservative commentators on this site refill their debate batteries with the RNC speeches.

I bet we're gonna hear all the lines that were given tonight in future posts by:

Stillow
Player
Marcx
and whoever else

The golden rule pretty much is that you can't have any respect for a poster here unless you can give some constructive criticism to whom you support or have a balanced perspective all around.

Getting back to polling, I think we need to see more polling data from the leaning states.

Examples where the current views are too out of date:
WV, AK, SD, MT, NV, OR, Alaska (no post VP Palin polling?)

Arkansas has voted with the winner every time since 1968.

SD has not gone Democrat since 1964, but it needs to be looked at more closely.

WV is a strong democrat state, but has strongly supported Bush, but we have not had a new poll since June.

Wish I was T. Boon Pickens and I could just have the polling done myself instead of spouting off about using natural gas (of which I am the biggest private owner of in the US).

Just heard the "Drill, baby, drill" chant from blissed-out base at convention. They're really into it. Would it sound the same if they were chanting "We want oil! We want oil!"?

How about "SUV! SUV!" or "Hum-mer! Hum-mer!"?

Am I missing something or is "Drill, baby, drill" a riff on "Burn, baby, burn"? I guess you drill first and burn later, baby.

Okely dokely...
Supposedly the mainstream media set the expectations really low for this VP candidate...in my opinion not low enough. Maybe the Mccain camp was trying this down-to-earth hockey mom personna... but I found myself as a woman asking myself...could Gov. Palin be president....and as much as I "dislike" Hillary Clinton I was dying to hear her deliver that speech any speech rather than bear Palin for one more minute...The content of the speech is good (by republican standards) but Palin is a complete lightweight. Yeah I can really see her negotiating a peace accord with Isreal and Palestine..,
"So like my husband and I like live in a small town kinda like jerusalem is a small town, why cant we pall-ees and isral--ees just get along.." Tell me this election isnt really happening...I get it..I am in the twilight zone.

Someone said in an earlier post that McCain would see an anti-bounce... yeah wouldn't surprise me

Romney was good...creepy ..but good and Rudy..was great.. the usual noun ...verb and 911. But Rudy's speech was way more effective than Palin's

Bring on the conservative praise!

this race is officially over, that was the worst performance EVER! this is a circus

i cant believe Cnn is making this sound good! oh my god this was horrible

The speech was decent. It was heartfelt and really sounds like it was written by Palin, which is good. Lacked some direction defending herself, putting herself on the attack, and defending McCain's credentials all at the same time. One inconsistency with Romeny's speech over unions and the fact that Todd Palin is a Steel Union member.

Anyone see that woman that got escorted out by the secret police?

Andrew:

Apparently it wasn't written by her at all and the McCain speech writers made it b4 she was even the vp and then they modified it when she got the spot.

This isn't conspiracy, this is what campaigns do. Luckily, Obama has a lot of input on his major speeches if not all (it depends).

Well I guess my key word was it "sounded" like it was written by her. Although how familiar she was about McCain's experiences and knowing him obviously lost me knowing that she met him once before this whole VP thing.

These new state polls gave Obama a big boost in the electoral vote projection. See
http://election-projection.net

Not a bad speech. She's still a nut case, though.

Good luck with the "McCain's the same guy today as yesterday" line. McCain's spinning around so fast that if you wrapped him in copper wire and put a magnet around him, the energy crisis would be over.

The Cheney comparison is apt, I think. She's all about the oil and gas under her state, as Cheney is about coal. She's as happy as Cheney is to be sarcastic, too. Drill, baby, drill.

When she said Obama wanted to read terrorists their rights, she got a big response. How about "tor-ture! tor-ture!"?

Still, who expected Palin to stand there and blow it? Not having a clue about how the federal gov't works doesn't mean you can't speak well.

Nice speech, she just conveniently left out lots of the pertinent facts.

Allen:

I don't think it's that far apart. It's gonna be a close race.

to robi,

This was horrible the only reason the media is saying its okay is because their afraid of sexism charges. Believe me that was awful, she mad fun of community organizers that is so arrogant, she sounded so nasty! omg this is gonna kill mccain's candidacy. the dems are happy!

I don't know about that. I've read his first book and I know that it is hard to be a community organizer, but people don't know that and (although it isn't as hard as being a governor) not many people are going to get up in arms.

Stay away from the community organizer thing as experience, it doesn't help the case against her.

If there's a negative bounce, it won't be because of Palin's speech. The bar was low, she's a public-speaking genius compared to Dubya, the crowd was already on her side, etc. Time for the R base to get so excited they forget most of the country isn't like them.

Any negative bounce from Palin will be from further vetting and digestion of current info, but the last few days have seen Obama surge.

Will Palin's speech turn out to get better ratings than McCain's?

Yes, the numbers for Iowa look a little nutty BUT do not forget the very night after Obama's big victory speech following his Iowa victory in the primary, even Survey USA showed him 17 points ahead.

I think Iowans probably have a special connection to Obama due to his victory there, but once the memory of the Dem convention fades, this will float back down to single digits. I think Obama will take Iowa by six points - maybe a little more, maybe a little less.

btw I grew up in Minnesota and there is no way in hell either candidate will get a double digit victory - again this poll was taken in the afterglow of the Dem convention.

Minnesota is still a blue state, however, and given the trends, Obama should take it by more than 5 points.

IMO McCain could have easy picked Pawlenty. He has blue collar cred and is generally well-liked in Minnesota, surviving a fierce challenge from Mike Hatch in a very Democratic year. To pick an unvetted, unknown, untested candidate like Palin over Pawlenty out of 11th hour snap judgment seems totally silly. Pawlenty would have been just fine.

Speaking about Pawlenty:

How about the VP Sarah Pawlenty lol!

lol, yeah nice slip of the tongue.

Well, I have to say from where I was sitting she sounded exactly like Dick Cheney.

Hardly surprising same speechwriters!

I think that there will be a negative bounce. Moderate women, some men, she makes McCain look old.

She didn't look , she didn't sound, she didn't carry herself like a Vice President and that was the main task.

I said to one of ladies in my focus group what happens if McCain dies and she said "they should have thought of that". "she's no Hillary" was another comment.

The simplest one that summed it up was: "McCain is too old and she's not right".

WOW! What a speech! I am fired up! I just...

*Made another donation to Obama
*Had my wife fill out the voter registration card that's been sitting on our kitchen table for two weeks
*Volunteered to work for the Obama campaign
*Took election day off to help GOTV

Way to go Sarah!

I think Obama will win both Minnesota and Iowa comfortably, by 8 to 10 points. The wide lead in Iowa isn't surprising. Don't forget, the eastern part of Iowa, the most heavily populated part, borders Illinois and shares media markets which Obama has worked heavily since his Senate campaign. Also, McCain opposed the farm bill and he adamantly opposes ethanol subsidies which have made a lot of Iowa farmers prosperous for the first time in anyone's memory. Iowans also take great pride in having launched the Obama campaign into national prominence; by now he's their "favorite son." Mccain is toast in the Hawkeye State.

Living in Iowa, I cannot believe that Obama will take it. We're very moderate here. I think Palin is going to be a game changer here. She is so much like the typical Iowa woman.