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Times/Bloomberg: FL, OH (10/24-27)

Topics: PHome

Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg
10/24-27/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Florida 639 LV, 4%
Obama 50, McCain 43

Ohio 644 LV, 4%
Obama 49, McCain 40

 

Comments
Trosen:

Sorry.. hate to sound hyperbolic.. but if these #s hold up at all with some subsequent polls.. these are staggering.

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pbcrunch:

Obama will be helped greatly by Crist's decision to extend early voting polling hours in FL, much the behest of his fellow Republicans.

I find it interesting and disturbing that Republicans essentially acknowledge that if more people vote, they are more likely to lose. Says A LOT about their ideology...

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JerryTheAngel:

All McCain and Palin do is call the other side names and demonize Obama and Biden.They offer no solutions for our country and are using the same scare tactics that worked in 2002 and 2004. They stopped working in 2006 and aren't working in 2008 either.

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Oldy75:

Florida Obama number is pretty much in line with Suffolk.

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Indiana4Obama:

Wow...Florida and Ohio really seem to be trending Obama all around.

This will tighten, of course, and both states could go either way. But hopefully Obama and Bill will really fire up the Floridians tomorrow.

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fox:

Of course repulican doesnt want you to vote. Because there are much more democrats than republicans. More people vote = more vote for Obama

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ndirish11:

McCain supporters do not be discouraged by the recent numbers, just go out and vote and hope that the numbers come in differently.

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Kile Thomson:

McCain Surge Continues... !!!

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I hear the sound of Boomshak angrily masturbating.

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Observer:

Averages of 8 daily trackers:

Saturday (for Friday and before)...Obama +8
Today (for Monday and before)......Obama +5

First time for a very long time that McCain has gained in the trackers for three successive days.

Obama averages 49.8% in these polls
McCain averages 44.8%

Progress for McCain but still comfortable for Obama and 7 points better than Kerry. However if it narrows a little more to say 2/3% and there are 5/6% undecided....

Not over yet!

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RaleighNC:

Laughable at best.

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gossamer:

good poll for obama of course, just not one of the elite polls. hopefully a few more polls show obama up more than 5 in both these states.

i'm so excited and nervous.

hopefully obama's infomercial is good and doesn't turn people off.

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NW Patrick:

It's over. I haven't seen a STATE poll in WEEKS that is cause for concern.

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NW Patrick:

McCain supporters stay home on election day. This blowout will just waste your time. Why bother.

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jeepdad:

@NW Patrick:

No, they can come out and vote. On Wednesday.

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NW Patrick:

Ohio! WOW!

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/27 -- -- 49.8 43.4 Obama +6.4

SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/27 648 LV 3.9 49 45 Obama +4
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/25 - 10/27 644 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 49 45 Obama +4
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 408 LV 5.0 52 42 Obama +10

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johncoz:

@ndirish11

The problem for your side is that what evidence we have suggests McCain voters are becoming discouraged, and that his support is softer than Obama's.

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NW Patrick:

Ohio! WOW!

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/27 -- -- 49.8 43.4 Obama +6.4

SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/27 648 LV 3.9 49 45 Obama +4
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/25 - 10/27 644 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 49 45 Obama +4
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 408 LV 5.0 52 42 Obama +10

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NW Patrick:

FLORIDA YOU CAN DO IT!:)

RCP Average 10/20 - 10/27 -- -- 48.4 45.1 Obama +3.3

LA Times/Bloomberg 10/25 - 10/27 639 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
Suffolk 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV -- 49 44 Obama +5
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 603 LV 4.1 47 47 Tie
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 562 LV 5.0 48 47 Obama +1

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Trosen:

ginandtacos.com:

"I hear the sound of Boomshak angrily masturbating."


Ouch.. "angrily" huh? Hope at least he broke out the Jergens first.

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GoodRiddensW:

BO is consistently hugging that 50% barrier in poll after poll this week - not going to be any easier for JM when he is fighting within his own campaign and red states and battlegrounds and PA.

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Chester:

the pollster map has turned into a rainbow, and is really illustrative of how Obama, while remaining fortified in the blue, has nicely advanced the reds and torn McCain's heartland-firewall all to hell!

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ndirish11:

I realize they are becoming discouraged, we shouldn't.

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Obama's Pitbull:

McCain supporters just vote for Alan Keyes

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Rollin08:

"The problem for your side is that what evidence we have suggests McCain voters are becoming discouraged, and that his support is softer than Obama's."

- Look at early voting.

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Patrick

Now come on buddy. Don't encourage people not to vote. We should have enough confidence that Obama's message is resonating with enough people that he'll win.

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Rollin08:

@ johncoz

Agree.

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NW Patrick:

Republicans better find themselves a Howard Dean, and fast!:) Love that line from an article I recently read. Boy Dean's 50 State strategy beginning in '05 is proving GENIOUS.

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NW Patrick:

WOW Obama has more than 100 offices in the state and 400 staffers. (Florida). Together with the RNC, McCain has 79 offices and 40 staffers.

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JamesGlasgow:

Have been reading this site for 2 months - and I'm now joining the debate. I am an observer of this election from Scotland (UK) and would like to comment because the result of this election will be felt way beyond the USA. The partisan exchange between Dems and Reps is no surprise. But I am staggered by the lazy, poorlt-informed description of European politics as socialist/Marxist. It has to be said that virtually every mainstream party I can think of in Britain, Scandinavia, Netherlands, Germany - left, right or centre - understands the case for smart regulation of the market and fair taxation. The question is not whether but how. To cast Obama as far left is a joke on any objective analysis of his platform. The best hope for the international community looks like a decisive Obama victory followed by a modernisation of the GOP. Look at the state of your infrastructure, your public schools, the economy in OH, MI, the continuing poverty in the south. Eight years of Bush have been a disaster. I don't hear McCain supporters argue anything different. I want to wish America the courage to re-build itself as a force for good at home and abroad. There is only one candidate next week who can come within a million miles of pulling that off.

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kerrchdavis:

@James

Well said. Thank you.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Anyone else notice Ole Miss blushing? Why, she is positively PINK!

McCain is down to 15 red states on the map. If this McCain surge continues at the current rate, he will be down to 6 states by the 4th.

Boomshak?

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katocat:

Ouch!

McToast.

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Trosen:

What do you know.. European Socilaist/marxist.. =p

Welcome James. Lots of us here feel the way you do.. trust me.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Yeah, ok!


TWO SHAMEFULLY LIBERAL NEWS OUTLETS..GIVE ME A BREAK!!

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CosmicBlue:

To NYCREALAMERICAN:

Thank you so much for writing the following on a previous page:

"I believe in Adam Smith, and he was quite clear that Christian values must be a part of the free market system: we must be our brother's keeper, the wealthy can afford to pay more to see that the poor have housing, food and medical care. WHY? BECAUSE WE ARE BETTER THAN KIM JUNG IL'S GOVERNMENT, WE ARE BETTER THAN HAMAS. WHY? BECAUSE SS DISABILITY WORKED. BECAUSE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE HELPS. BECAUSE WORKER'S COMPENSATION IS SOCIALISM AND I AM GRATEFUL. WHY? BECAUSE JESUS SAID I GIVE UNTO YOU A NEW COMMANDMENT - TO LOVE ONE ANOTHER. AND WHEN POOR PEOPLE DIE BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO HEALTH INSURANCE OR THE INSURANCE COMPANY REFUSES TO PAY FOR CANCER TREATMENT, OR HOMELESS VETERANS FREEZE TO DEATH UNDER BRIDGES OR A CHILD IN WV GOES TO SCHOOL AND/OR BED HUNGRY, WE ARE ALL DIMINISHED."

Perfectly eloquent, concise, and true. I've already shared it with many like-minded friends.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

Our boy boom has given up I think. He's down to cutting and pasting "tin-foil hat" stuff from the Freeptards about Obama now.

The knife fight inside the GOP is going strong now. I do hope the Freeptard wing is able to kill the Romney wing since that will mean the complete disintigration of the GOP as we know it. No one with half a brain would vote for a platform that consists solely of the jesus plan.

I heard that one of the Romney aides to the McCain campaign sunk a harpoon in Palin today calling her a "wacko." Boomdunk just about lost it here, screaming about sources and blah blah blah. It was hilarious to watch.

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ArthurPE:

@ JamesGlasgow

good post, thanks...

we as Americans have, in general, an arrogent attitude: if it ain't American, it's wrong...goes for our political/economic systems too...


we know what's right for everyone, and will impose our will, with pressure of varying sorts...

we could learn alot from European countries, but stubborness & pride do not lend theirselves to the quest for knowledge and a better day...

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Lechuguilla:

168 hours from now the first statewide returns start coming in.

Lech

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dkfennell:

I said this before, but the thing get worse and worse. The newsfeed on this site is truly abysmal. Of all the public policy issues that this country faces, exactly why is Elizabeth Hasselback's opinion about Obama's TV buy at all important? The newsfeed ignores almost all the substance of the campaign and pulls up almost nothing but trash. Now maybe they think that to give equal time to McCain, who is not really running on issues or substance, they have to bring up trash. But really, the newsfeed shows an insulting view of the users of this site.

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katocat:

@James

Rest assured many of us in the USA do not share the republicans viewpoint of the world (my guess is many of them have never been 100 miles from home) and our allies. A lot of us never voted for Bush!

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Kent_Girl:

I too have been following the postings on this site here from the UK (though from the opposite end of the country to James!), and I fully agree with his comments. I first became aware of Obama via an in depth piece in the Sunday Times magazine shortly after he announced his intention to run for the Democratic Nominee. At this time he was considered somewhat of an outside chance of securing the nomination, but the reporter was impressed by the vision that Obama seemed to have, and conveyed this very well in the piece.

The reason this is relevant is because I clearly recall from this piece that one of Obama's strong areas that was outlined was his potential ability to attract independent and moderate republicans because of his more central political perspective. And certainly, to me at least, his campaign seems to have been moderately left of centre. To call him a 'socialist' is absurd.

Anyway, the election day is a big day for not only the USA but the world as a whole, and we are waiting with baited breath...:)

BTW, some of Obama's distant relatives live just down the road from me!!

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Obama's Pitbull:

James this is what we deal with and fight off everyday... Repubs are just hate mongers and hopefully next week it will be all over :)

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MNLatteLiberal:

@1Angry, yeah, I actually caught a bit of that. Asking Politico to name their unnamed sources. As I was wondering whether he was aware that his right wing media friends actually opted to sit in jail for 45 days than disclose the Scooter/Cheney/Rove daisy chain, somebody called on boom's blatant hypocrisy vis-a-vis Israeli unnamed sources.

In any case, I still have a half-hearted hope he'll come in here and proclaim that FL is a lot closer than it appears in the rear view mirror. Or to GA. Or, when FL goes for Obama, to Cuba. Oh well.

Just signed up to do a double shift for Tinklenberg and the entire DFL ticket on the election day. Gonna go meet some more of my indecisive neighbors. I'm just grateful my better half will be there to keep the message positive. I go off the deep end on Bachmann (as you may have noticed :)

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mysticlaker:

drudge - at it again...gallup traditional lv....

awesome.

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NorthernObserver:

Turn Florida blue, turn Florida blue,
come on Pollster -- you know what to do,
turn Florida blue

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

Yeah boom is losing his mind now.

On a more positive note my state is now in play. I'm off to try and locate the Tucson office to do some volunteering and knock on some doors. Should be fun, we'll see if I can get knifed before election day. Good thing I've already voted, eh?

Did you catch the latest news about Bachman and her recanting her request for the pardon? Nothing smells like Republican corruption, they know how to really make it stink.

Anyway I'm off for the night I'll talk back at you later.

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political_junki:

Cronkite/Eight Poll: McCain Could Lose Arizona
A new Cronkite/Eight Poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama by just two points, 46% to 44%.

Said poll director Bruce Merrill: "Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals. Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen. Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day."

These results are similar to two polls released yesterday that also showed a tight race in McCain's home state.

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JamesGlasgow:

And while I'm on here, can anyone explain why some of the poorest states in the south continue to vote against their own economic self-interest in favour of GOP candidates who believe in tax cuts for the top few per cent? It doesn't kick-start the economy - not for you, not for us in the UK. Glad to see, too, that the religious white/Republican link is being eroded. There is nothing Christian about the hypocrisy of Bush or Palin on economic, social, international issues. I speak as a Christian appalled by what is done in the name of religion by right-wing politicians.

A few months ago, some of us felt the USA faced a choice between two decent candidates. McCain may still be a decent man, trapped and surrounded by fearful conservatives. But he has lousy judgement. Hope he escapes on 5th November.

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Trosen:

mysticlaker:
"drudge - at it again...gallup traditional lv....

awesome."

Drudge is doing more good for our campaign than he will ever understand.

James, as to your question. There have been numerous books about that very subject. The answer? People are easily fooled or misdirected by things like "family values." (which is of course a synonym for hatred and xenophobia)

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straight talk:

@McCAIN sUPPORTERS

YOUR CANDIDATE IS GOING TO SPEND HIS FINAL TWO DAYS IN pENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY! WHY? WHAT POLLS ARE HE LOOKING AT? HE HAS NEVER LED IN PENNSYLVANIA ! I SAID THAT OBAMA WOULD BE UP BY 5+ IN FLORIDA THIS WK. AND THUS FAR THE POLLS ARE BEARING THIS OUT! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!!

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KMartDad08:

Obama should run an ad in OH featuring JOE THE PLUMBER highlighting his comments about social security being a "joke". I'm sure the seniors in OH would appreciate this fool's insights since McCain seems to like him so much.

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oicu:

@JamesGlasgow:

read up on the Republican Southern Strategy from the 1960s. Southern politics have been governed by racial issues for many decades, and only now is a progressive coalition starting to be able to break that pattern. That it is happening at the hands of a black candidate is doubly delicious.

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Rollin08:

Kent_Girl,

I'm sure you won't be disappointed on election day.

Obama is going to be a great leader. I love seeing the hoge poge of people coming together. This is how I thought of America as a kid. We really went off track this last 8 years.

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Pat:

McShame is so stupid that he keeps talking about "wealth re-distribution" and does not realize that majority of the middleclass and lower income voters may favor talking more money from the very rich top 2-3% of the population and giving tax cuts to everyone else. I think his recent line of attacks on Obama is actually hurting him. This might be the reason for his recent poor performances in Ohio and Southern States.

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JamesGlasgow:

Thanks for comments. British media is doing a pretty good job of explaining the political divisions in the US, and is even grasping that OH and FL might not be the (only) key states that matter this time. Even some Conservatives here think Obama would be better for repairing the economic damage at home and the mess in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Syria, as well as pushing for a new deal in Israel/Palestine. Before we even mention climate change. I hope economic necessity will make America unite behind President Obama's team in the next 4 years.

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liz from NJ:

jamesglasgow

the reason why the poor white folks in the southern states are voting Rebpublican and against their own economic interest is a result of so called "southern strategy".

Starting around the Nixon time, the Republican party forged and very ably exploited a strategy based on inciting racial fear of undereducated rural southern whites against minorities and the Democratic party perceived by them as a party that champions the minority rights (actually, sort of true).

Also, don't forget that there is a disproporationately higher % of evangelical christians in these regions.

So, these people feel threatened by the idea of diverse, open society based on inclusive secular values (they call it "liberal" values).

For them, this is a much more important aspect than anything else. On top of that, please note that these are in general much less educated people. The whole modern economic theories are highly abstract. The immediate fear of the commies and liberals are far more real and urgent.

Please note that in USA, the blue states are net positive $$$ contributors to the federal government (meaning, they send more money to Washionton than they get back later in terms of various of fedral programs that benefit the states). The red states are net receivers of the fedral money. So, on a national scale, we have income redistribution: take money from the rich, educated blue states and send it to poor, undereducated red states.

Would you belive it: they are so deathly afraid of the commies, and yet, they are the ones benefiting from this "socialists" policies.

In general, the more educated you are, the more likely you are to be a democrat in this country.

Lawyers donate to Dem as opposed to Repub by 4:1. High tech executives, 5-1, doctors 2-1. Even among the bankers, 2-1.

So, you get the idea. I hope this answers a part of your question. if you still don't get it, fire other questions.

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Paul:

I believe the following have not been listed on pollster.com from Tuesday Oct 28:

CO: Insider Adv - Obama +9
FL: Datamar - Obama +4.8
GA: Insider Adv - McCain +1
IN: Howey-Gauge - McCain +2
IN: R2K - Obama +1
ME: Market Decisions - Obama +21
NH: UNH - Obama +16
NV: Suffolk - Obama +10
PA: Insider Adv - Obama +8
VA: Roanoke College - Obama +9

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burrito:

@JamesGlasgow:

Having lived in Europe (and elsewhere), I have the same view of other countries as you do. However, you sadly miss the point. The people (campaign managers, strategists, speech writers, etc.) in the Republican side, do not firmly believe that Obama is a marxist. Sadly this is part of the "labeling" that this campaign uses to say : "he is not one of us" ... they are happy to associate him with anything that is seen by people as "non-american" (regardless of how stupid that may sound). This name calling has been used by politicians in the US for a long, long time ... for example, during the 2004 elections they called Kerry an "elitist" ... and that did it, not for all, but for a good size of the population ... I know that this is hard to believe for anyone who lives or has lived outside the US ... what you see in this site are remarks that are simply repeated from the campaign itself ... no one really bothers to consider the implications of what is said or show the curiosity to verify the validity of such outrageous remarks ...

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carl29:

Republicans are surely nerveous about FL because they are running the most depicable ads here. Make no mistake, you don't do that in a state that a) you lead comfortably b) you don't need. We all know that McCain can't be POTUS without Florida, and Florida sliped from McCain's column to a toss-up state.

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cinnamonape:

If early voting is as vastly differential as SUSA finds then it could bve very bad for McCain.

"John McCain and Barack Obama are tied at 47% each in Ohio, among voters who have not yet cast a ballot, but who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to do so on or before election day. But, among those in Ohio who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Barack Obama leads by 17 points. When the two populations are combined, the data is as here reported: Obama 49%, McCain 45%."

It might indicate a vastly greater "enthusiasm factor" that might reflect turnout on the day of the election.

The only way I could spin this in McCain's favor is that maybe Obama would have a bimodally distributed "Very enthusiastic" and "very weak" set of supporters while McCain had some "Moderately enthusiastic". If so you might have a huge surplus of Obama supporters coming out early...but on the day of election the "moderately enthusiastic" non-early voters of McCain might swamp the weakly enthusiastic Obama supporters.

It's a nutty scenario, though. More likely is that the enthusiasm levels are indicated by the early voting and that more Obama supporters will also show up on election day.

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carl29:

liz from NJ,

Amen. True, true, true!!!!

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We can only hope that these numbers hold up.

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jonny87:

state polls good today, but not happy about the national trackers. i wish he never met joe the plumber, its making this much more difficult that it needed to be!

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liz from NJ:

Burrito,

good points. To further expand on that, I do believe that the whole "Obama is Arab" thing is rooted on the fact that he is black.

In this country, even the racists know that it is no longer acceptable in a public setting with "mixed crowd" to say Obama is, oh my god "black!" (with all that implies).

However, post 9/11, it's sort of acceptable to use "arab" as a new dirty word. So, the racists who would rather happily tell everybody that they won't vote for him because he is "N*****" can sort of sately say Obama is, gasp, "Arab!!!".

In this election cycle, having see what I saw, I became very empathetic toward the Arab American community, and now feel a strong sense of solidarity with them. The entire arab community has become a fair game for the uglist racists in this country.

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carl29:

cinnamonape,

At least in FL, early voting (in-person) has being overwhelmingly Democrat. Note that we always come from behind because Republicans get a very healthy headstart with the absentee ballots, the "miraculous" absentee ballots as I call them.

I voted on the first day of early voting and had to be in line for 3 hours. A friend of mine went on Saturday and had to wait 4 hours. People are eager to cast their ballots as soon as possible. Turnout is going to be fantastic, which should make every American happy, regardless of political affiliation.

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Michael:

I think what's going on now on the national trackers is the result of another mini-boomlet from McCan's tactic of the week. The same thing happened with the celebrity thing, then the lipstick roe, etc. It gets traction a day or so, the Republican base perks up a bit driving up his numbers while maybe peeling 1% away from Obama, but after a day or two when it runs out of steam, momentum shifts and Obama is better off as a result. The Socialism thing is the same way. McCain's advisor's healthcare comment combined with Obama's spot tomorrow will probably kill it, and we'll move on to the election better off with the state-by-state polls stronger in our direction.

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mm:

I can't believe why some americans will be voting for somebody who wears diaper everyday. Are guys ..... or what?

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JamesGlasgow:

liz from NJ and burrito: you confirm my fears about the strategy. I get the political geography and I understand why southern, white Democrats (Carter, Clinton) are the only ones to have made in-roads in the last 30 years. It is all the more impressive if Obama can make some of these states competitive again. People can't be kept in fear forever!

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liz from NJ:

uh......

typos and grammatical erros!! execuse moi!

words form much faster than what my fingers can follow and hence errors.....

I don't mean to bastardize Enligsh a la Palin. So, excue me.

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cinnamonape:

"And while I'm on here, can anyone explain why some of the poorest states in the south continue to vote against their own economic self-interest in favour of GOP candidates who believe in tax cuts for the top few per cent?"

One of the biggest arguments against inferring that people act strictly according to economic criteria. At the same time they are voting for candidates that can bring them "pork" (Red States generally get $1.25 while paying .85 cents in Federal taxes; Blue States the inverse). So this establishes them in a patronage economy in the South, where large military contractors and other Federal beneficiaries dole out jobs. It really is, for them, a kind of trickle down. Many of their Congressional Republicans attained very powerful positions as a consequence of seniority, as well.

Education is low, attachment to anti-intellectual religions is high...thus in a competitive "Market" system they are unlikely to be able to benefit from a truly "rational" economy.

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AlanSnipes:

James:

The reason white southerners vote against their own economic interests is because they are considerably more racist than the rest of the country.
They would rather screw themselves economically, than treat blacks as equals. They need to feel superior to someone and they delude themselve by flying the Confederate flag, the flag of terrorists.

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mandalorianarmy:

We need to win this election for people like Charles:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW-6DpC-mj8

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orange24:

More honorable tactics from the party that always screams voter fraud:

As the election nears, examples of political dirty tricks are emerging with greater frequency.

On Tuesday, the Virginia Pilot reported that a phony Board of Elections flier was circulating the state "advising Republicans to vote on Nov. 4 and Democrats on Nov. 5." Voting, of course, is on the 4th only, creating fear among neutral observers and the Obama campaign that people were simply going to miss the opportunity to go to the polls.

Earlier this month, meanwhile, an anonymous flier was circulating in predominantly African-American neighborhoods in Philadelphia telling voters they could be arrested at the polls if they show up to vote with outstanding arrest warrants or unpaid parking tickets. This is also untrue.

Dirty tricks and phony fliers represent the dark underside of nearly every election. And certainly, when it comes to the current contest, these tactics started long ago. Last March, as Time Magazine noted, a letter was being sent around Colorado, warning that out-of-state students could not register if their parents claimed them as dependents in another state." One of the more common falsities making its way through email chains has warned voters in some states (updated below) that they will be turned away from the polls if they wore paraphernalia demonstrating their support for one particular candidate.

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liz from NJ:

jamesglasgow,

Sorry to burst your bubble. Obama's success in some red states does not really mean that prejudiced people in the southern region truly evolved and reformed.

The reason why some red states are turning in this direction is because over last 10 years or so, some red states started to get an influx of uppity nothern libs who relocated to the region. The best example: the research triangle in North Carolina. (research triangle is a hot bed of IT/high tech area in the south).

Also, Obama is benefiting from the historical voter turn out of the minorities.

I genuinely wish a massive amount of former racists are reforming, but alas, I don't think that's what's going on.

Well, for some people the only way they stop being racists is when they draw their final breath.

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JamesGlasgow:

LizNJ/Burrito: Thanks. We know a fair bit about Islamophobia in UK/Europe as an ugly trend, but there is a fair degree of bi-partisan support for tackling fear and ignorance head-on. Colin Powell's comments were really significant on race/religion. This campaign is divisive, but failure for McCain might force the GOP to never run the same kind of campaign again. That can only be a good thing. I know that's an optimistic view, but that is the only way America has ever moved forward.

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carl29:

JamesGlasgow,

Some of the southern states are competitive thanks to the power of EDUCATION. The reason that Obama is doing well in VA has a lot to do with educated people who have moved from other states to work in D.C. Those whites don't share the ideology of those poor, white southern because they are not from there. Whenever you think of Northern VA, think of well educated people. In addition to the growth of the Hispanic community as well. Same goes for NC, although not as strong as VA, yet :-). Thanks to all the companies in NC, well educated people from other states have moved and with them the influx of new ideas.

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NoMcSame:

What if they rig the voting machines to look as if you voted for Obama with the check-mark appearing next to his name, but internally, it is marked as vote for McCain?

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cinnamonape:

"Obama should run an ad in OH featuring JOE THE PLUMBER highlighting his comments about social security being a "joke". I'm sure the seniors in OH would appreciate this fool's insights since McCain seems to like him so much."

Bingo! Also in Florida! It'd seal the deal!

Also mention that McCain supported Bush's "privatization" plans to eliminate younger workers SSI, the co-payment by the employer, and put the pared down amount in plans on the stock market in companies like Lehman Brothers, Wachovia, and Chase.

It'd kill Social Security by 2020 and likely have resulted in the "privatized" pension moneys being subject to the crashes we're having right now. Not a very secure retirement future, I'd say.

BTW Wonder if Sam "Joe" Wurzelbacher has even been paying his SSI? He seems to have an issue with "taxes".

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oicu:

@lizNJ:

it's a combination of more blacks voting, old southern liberals, non-southern white imports (like my family) and a fast growing hispanic population. The demographics for republicans in the South are not going to get any better.

____________________

McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end this war in Iraq. What the hell is a Republican anyway?

The Democrats are the party that values individual freedom, not the Republicans. The Democrats value the environment, not the Republicans. The Democrats value a balanced budget, not the Republicans. The Democrats believe in investing money for health care, education, and to help the middle class and the people here in our own country.....NOT THE REPUBLICANS.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

Schill:

Bad news for McCain
Early Voting Now Up to 18% Obama doing better among those who have voted or say they will vote before Nov. 4USA Election 2008 Elections Americas Northern America by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking data collected through Monday night indicate that 18% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted, and another 15% say they will vote before Nov. 4; so far the voter preferences of this early voting group are somewhat more tilted toward Obama than those who say they will wait to vote on Election Day.

Gallup is tracking the self-reported voting behavior of Americans who say they are registered and plan to vote. The question wording is as follows: "Which of the following applies to you? 1. You have already voted in this year's election, either by absentee ballot or early voting opportunities in your state, 2. You plan to vote before Election Day, either by absentee ballot or early voting opportunities in your state, or 3. You plan to vote on Election Day itself."
In Gallup's first report on early voting, based on Oct. 17-19 interviewing, 7% of registered voters who planned to vote said they had already voted, while another 21% said that they were going to vote early. Now, in the latest Oct. 25-27 report, the two lines have crossed, with 18% saying that they have already voted, and another 15% saying that they will vote before Election Day. Taken as a group, these results continue to suggest that about a third of voters will have already cast their ballot before Nov. 4.

The voter preferences of the group of 1,430 individuals who have already voted and who were interviewed by Gallup between Oct. 17 and Oct. 27 show a 53% to 43% Obama over McCain tilt.

Among the group of those who say they have not yet voted, but will before Election Day, the skew towards Obama is more pronounced, at 54% to 40%. By comparison, those who are going to wait to vote on Nov. 4 manifest a narrower 50% to 44% Obama over McCain candidate preference. (Across all registered voters over this time period, Obama leads McCain by a 51% to 43% margin).

These results indicate that, with each passing day, Obama appears to be freezing in place a higher and higher percentage of votes tilting in his favor, making that portion of the overall electorate impervious to any last minute campaign trends. At the least, the results certainly suggest to that the vote returns on Election Night will be incomplete, and perhaps misleading, if absentee and early voting results are not included.

As was true in Gallup's last early voting analysis, those who vote early are more concentrated in the Western states, and to a lesser degree in the South, than in other regions -- particularly the East, where only 3% of registered voters who plan to vote (based on Oct. 25-27 interviewing) say they have already voted.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 9,944 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 17-27, 2008. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

7 more days, my friends! Vote now if you can. Believe me, there will be ENORMOUS lines on election day. Don't let the long lines stop you from voting, as that is the only hope that the rethugs have right now. This will be a historic election and real change is going to sweep through Washington.

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE!

____________________

carl29:

oicu,

Totally true. One of the reasons I am a Democrat is the focus they put in public education. I truly believe that the only way society can get rid of "prejudice" is EDUCATION. Educated people are more likely to accept diversity of opinions, ethnicity, and ideology. When you educate yourself, you see the world through a different glass. For me, education is the key. That's why Republicans don't want to fund education programs, why? it is not in their best interest :-)

____________________

cinnamonape:

"What if they rig the voting machines to look as if you voted for Obama with the check-mark appearing next to his name, but internally, it is marked as vote for McCain?"

Then it would be recorded as a McCain vote. Which is why some people have called for hard copies of votes to be available for the voter to view...and a regular canvass of hard copy votes to assess the accuracy and reliability of the electronic recording system.

Presumably this is done on "test runs" before the election, but in California they discovered ways of putting programmable glitches in that would evade testing and "release" on the day of the election. They now use old systems that read optically scanned marks...and census samples.

If there is a variation they always have the hand-marked ballots for a manual count.

____________________

carl29:

Guys...if this doesn't move your heart, something is wrong with you:

Ga. residents wait up to 8 hours to vote early
By GREG BLUESTEIN – 12 minutes ago

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iXAkBilVhjbpsgAAHfgp6kGEShvwD943QJS04

*Please, get out and vote. Many Americans are doing a great sacrifice in the name of Democracy, why wouldn't you join them? USA!!!

____________________

sunnymi:

Yet another Arizona poll showing it very close in that state....

Cronkite/Eight Poll
McCain - 46%
Obama - 44%

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/28/cronkiteeight_poll_mccain_could_lose_arizona.html

____________________

Basil:

James

Though I haven't lived there for years, I grew up in Atlanta. It's not representative of the south as a whole (or hole, it sometimes seems), but I saw plenty of discouraging things.

For one, the civil war isn't over. There are lots of (older) white folks who insist it's not even proper to call it that. For them it's "the war between the states." Resentment over northerners telling southerners what to do is common. Many Irish folks think the same of the English. I can't count the number of times I've heard "yankee" used as a derogatory term.

The relatively more culturally homogeneous white population in the south gives them a sense of identity not shared by more diverse northern populations, and makes for a powerful resistance to change in any form. This isn't necessarily all bad, of course. We often travel to see people who have maintained their traditions.

Religious conservatism, such as you find in the south, is the exact opposite of a melting pot mentality. To associate tolerance for diverse behaviors (e.g. abortion, homosexuality, atheism) with economically progressive ideas is to invite rejection of the latter based on rejection of the former.

The race problem in the south is daunting, to say the least, but the stereotypically leftist position is simplistic, particularly in its avoidance of the question "How can the AA population quickly overcome hundreds of years of white oppression?" Whites who live in areas with substantial black populations are all too aware of the problematic nature of this question, regardless of their political stance. There's no easy answer.

In some ways, it's just a time lag. Progress is being made everywhere.

I'll stop. Electing Obama may go a long way toward changing the picture. I hope so.

____________________

NW Patrick:

How would you guys like to see O +25 in NH?

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2008_trk102808.pdf

It's the SURGE!

____________________

RussTC3:

Early voted today in Ohio for Obama.

It took a while--a tad under two hours--but it was well worth it.

____________________

Earlier this month, meanwhile, an anonymous flier was circulating in predominantly African-American neighborhoods in Philadelphia telling voters they could be arrested at the polls if they show up to vote with outstanding arrest warrants or unpaid parking tickets. This is also untrue.

I have, and do take into account I have been following US Elections since the 70's, always found this to be at the very least troublesome. How is this not illegal? Registering someone to vote is illegal, fraudulently voting is illegal, so why isn't voter suppression like this not illegal?

That isn't dirty tricks - that is stopping someone to vote which is a right under the US constitution isn't it? Or Bill of Rights at least.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Sure its an outlier but the question is by how much? Even 1/4 of 25 is still good.

____________________

boomshak:

Wait, is this the same LA Times which refuses to release the Obama/Khalidi video tape?

Yes, I trust their polling.

Utter bullsh*t.

One weird comment about the Rasmussen state polling. Every time Rasmussen has the national race closer, Obama gets further ahead in the states. It is just bizarre.

Also, I have noticed something about Rasmussen when I see him on FoxNews. When he talks about Obama being ahead, he seems almost giddy with excitement. I know he is supposed to be a Republican and all, but his attitude is just odd. Then when he talks about McCain getting closer, it looks like he just crapped his pants.

Dunno, maybe he is an Obama guy?

____________________

jeepdad:

So I wonder what time Drudge will post tomorrow's Zogby poll ...

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@jeepdad

It all depends on how good it is for McCain. Also, depends on how unprofessional Zogby is in his standards of leaking numbers today.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@jeep...

If it was Obama down he would have already...From what I've seen he does it around 8 PM if Obama is down.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@boomshak

If I were you I would forgot LAT and find something on the University of New Hampshire quick after their numbers.

____________________

mirrorball:

Wait, is this the same LA Times which refuses to release the Obama/Khalidi video tape?

The same Khalidi whose Center for Palestine Research and Studies got a $450,000 grant from the International Republican Institute, which McCain used to chair. I guess that make's McCain's support for Israel suspect, right?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/mccain-funded-work-of-pal_n_138606.html

"A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, "West Bank: CPRS" on page 14 of this PDF.)

"The relationship extends back as far as 1993, when John McCain joined IRI as chairman in January. Foreign Affairs noted in September of that year that IRI had helped fund several extensive studies in Palestine run by Khalidi's group, including over 30 public opinion polls and a study of "sociopolitical attitudes.""

____________________

boomshak:

INSIDE SCOOP - JUST HEARD THAT THE LATIMES OBAMA/RASHIDI VIDEO MAY BE RELEASED TOMORROW OR THE NEXT DAY - AND IT'S BAD, REALLY REALLY BAD.

It seems that in the tape, Obama is sitting at a table. To his left, William Ayers. To his right, Michelle. To her right, Bernadine Dohrn. Throughout the dinner, speaker after speaker is talking about how Israel should not exist. Anti-semitism extreme.

If this gets out, and I hear it will, this is gonna be BRUTAL. If Obama loses the Jewish vote, he is finished.

You guys better cross your fingers the LA Times burns that tape. However, if they don;t give it up, John McCain can ask every day, "What horrors lurk on this tape the LA Times doesn't want us to see?"

Either way, Obama is f*cked.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

zzZZZzzZZZZzzzzz.....

____________________

vmval1:

Just keep ranting Boom. 6 more days.

____________________

mysticlaker:

wtf? a lumberyard?

Please join

Senator John McCain

for a Joe the Plumber Rally

in Miami, FL

Wednesday October 29th

Everglades Lumber
6991 S.W. 8 Street
Miami, FL 33144

Doors Open at 7:30 a.m.

------------------------------------------

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Calendar/Detail.aspx?guid=4279722f-792e-4259-84b3-f54286582553

--------------------------------------------

At the same time, you can join I, Mystic Laker, at the Golden Bananna in downtown boston (over 18 only) for a "Crystal, the Stripper Rally"

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@boomshak

But what of the "whitey" tape? I thought you said that was gonna be released.

____________________

mysticlaker:
____________________

kerrchdavis:

WOW, BREAKING NEWS.

HUFFINGTON POST JUST UNCOVERED AN EXTENSIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN McCAIN AND RASHID KHALIDI.

During the 1990s, while he served as chairman of the International Republican Institute (IRI), McCain distributed several grants to the Palestinian research center co-founded by Khalidi, including one worth half a million dollars.

A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, "West Bank: CPRS" on page 14 of this PDF.)

The relationship extends back as far as 1993, when John McCain joined IRI as chairman in January. Foreign Affairs noted in September of that year that IRI had helped fund several extensive studies in Palestine run by Khalidi's group, including over 30 public opinion polls and a study of "sociopolitical attitudes."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/mccain-funded-work-of-pal_n_138606.html


well, so much for McCain using that story.

"For some strange reason, Drudge pulled his Khalidi story shortly after the HuffPost article appeared. I think McCain's camp is running scared- please either rec this diary or have Kos post the HuffPost article. This is one attempt at race-baiting that will blow up in McCain's face."

____________________

NW Patrick:

How would you guys like to see O +25 in NH?

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2008_trk102808.pdf

It's the SURGE!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

roflmao! I really feel bad for the boomshaks and drudges of the world. Every attempt they make to distract America from the issues, whether its secret videotapes or carving B's into girls faces, completely backfires.

Some amazing wingnut stupidity.

____________________

zotz:

Thanks boom
I'll stay up all night worrying about it!

What a load of MOOSEHOCKY!!!

BTW how do you like my new expletive for the Reps?

____________________

mysticlaker:

I've said it for weeks. If Obama wins by less points in N. Hampshire I will send $100 to the RNC.

____________________

carl29:

I'm still waiting for the "whitey" video and Obama in church nodding while Rev. Wrigth was ranting :-)

____________________

SoloBJ:

@jonny87: ,

I said the same thing a week or two ago with regard to "Joe the Plumber" but I don't think he is the reason for some of the tightening we see in a few national polls. If you look at Ohio, it was a closer race there before the Joe the Plumber story came into play there than what the polls are showing now. Same can be said with a couple of other states. As someone pointed out, Obama's support has been steady while McCain has started creeping up as the race nears its end which was to be expected.

Obama's 30 minute ad airs tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what the polls show by the weekend.

____________________

carl29:

Ah...I almost forget: I'm also waiting for Rezko to doom Obama, and what else? Ah...and Obama's being declared a foreigner, non-citizen. Am I forgeting something?

____________________

Basil:

kerrchdavis

Nice! Thank you!

____________________

mysticlaker:

A ****ing lumber yard...WTF?

Check it out. It's like he's having the rally at sanford and son's place...

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&rls=com.microsoft:*&resnum=0&q=6991+S.W.+8+Street+Miami,+FL+33144&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&resnum=1&ct=image

____________________

NW Patrick:

Hey Boom. AS USUAL you moron you don't quote your source for the LA TIMES STORY DUE OUT ANY DAY NOW! Pee my pants Boom!:) HA!

____________________

BrooklynDoug:

I would bet that McCain really, really doesn't want people poking around IRI.

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

That Wash Post/ABC Poll has been incredibly stable. Maybe they are on to something with that 7 point lead.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

boomshak's "stories", "breaking news" and "game changing questions" don't even last half a day now before they turn out to be thoroughly useless.

lol!

____________________

carl29:

@kerrchdavis,

The B on the girl's face is one story for the ages :-) Those people are really, really, really nuts. I never thought that losing power could make people do such outrageous things. Well, good that I am not one of them :-)

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@NW

I don't think bull**** COMES WITH sources.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@mand

What is more interesthing is that Obama has been gaining in RV's the last three days, but the LV has not changed. They are using an older model for LV's from what I can tell. If LV increases, Obama is probably closer to +9/+10 in the poll.

Check out the internals here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_102808.html

____________________

carl29:

Ops... I forgot the lunatic of Larry Sinclair who said that Obama 1) did drugs with him back in 2000 2) had sex with him 3) killed someone

You know, it's hard to keep up with all those Obama stories :-)

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

I got polled by Gallup!!!!!!!! It was too many questions though

____________________

vmval1:

C'mon guys we all know that boom's source for everything is www.brightestshadeofcrimsonstate.net

____________________

kerrchdavis:

somebody carved an O into my ass. He was tall, black and he was running for President.

____________________

carl29:

@Obama's Pitbull,

WOW!!!!! I've never been polled :-(

How did it go? I mean...if you want to share it with us :-)

____________________

MsJohnson:

Watch out in Georgia. I know what the polls say. But people are waiting in line over 6 hours to vote in heavily Democratic areas, particularly around Atlanta. The Rethugs I talk to are freaking out and complaining endlessly about "voter fraud," the US District Court ordering the Republican SOS to stop purging voter registration rolls in violation of the Voting Rights Act and Georgia law. Some crazy stuff going on around here.

____________________

carl29:

McCain's numbers in AZ are a true joke :-)

How can he expect that the people of PA would back him when the people of his own state are reluctantly doing so? I mean...it can't get any worse than that.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@Pitbull

Chalk another one up for McCain Palin ;) I'm sure!!!!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Holy **** guys! Everyone. Seriously. There is a thread on 538 about African American turnout so far this year.

But, holy **** guys!!!!

Barack Obama is black!!! No one told me. He is black - I can't believe it. This whole time I just thought he was from Hawaii. But all these white people (and black people) are voting for him. WTF!!!!!

____________________

boomshak:

Heritage To Obama: Please Stop Telling People We Support Your Tax Plan
October 28, 2008 at 04:14 pm

TEAM OBAMA PRODUCES ANOTHER AD BASED UPON A COMPLETE LIE - DESPICABLE...

Dear Senator Obama:

Two recent campaign advertisements seriously misrepresent the views of my client, The Heritage Foundation. They suggest, quite falsely, that The Heritage Foundation and one of its analysts support your tax plan.

The print ad on your Website as well as your ad entitled “Try This” reference a quote from policy analyst Rea Hederman. In fact, Mr. Hederman never said what is quoted there. Rather, the words you quote are from a New York Sun reporter who interviewed Mr. Hederman and summarized his views erroneously.

That the reporter’s summary is erroneous is evident from the actual quotes from Mr. Hederman presented in the article, which make it quite clear that Mr. Hederman believes your tax plan would be bad not only for the country, but for the middle class. By omitting the direct quotes from Heritage that are contained in the article and attributing to Heritage a conflicting statement not made by its analyst, the advertisement appears to be an intentional attempt to mislead.

Surely there can be no doubt within your campaign as to how Heritage truly views your tax plan. When one of your economic advisors, Jeffrey Liebman, made this same misrepresentation in a September 4, 2008 letter to The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Hederman promptly sent a corrective and very public letter. It appeared in the September 16 issue of The Wall Street Journal under the title: “A Bad Plan That Is Less Bad Is Still Not A Very Good Plan.” In it, Mr. Hederman strenuously decried Mr. Liebman’s blatant misrepresentation and set the record straight.

The Heritage Foundation believes that your advertisements’ use of its name is not only not a fair use of its intellectual property, but is an intentional attempt to mislead and misinform voters. As a responsible candidate, you should insist that your campaign cease to run these false advertisements immediately.

Very truly yours,
Alan P. Dye

____________________

NW Patrick:

****BREAKING NEWS FROM FLORIDA****ALERT! ALERT!
From the AP

"The extension will mean that votes will be cast 12 hours a day, not eight. So far, George Mason University has calculated that more than 2 million Floridians have cast early ballots. Of that total, 44.7 percent have been for Democrats and 40 percent for Republicans. If Obama were to keep these margins through November 4th, it could create a distance between him and McCain that the Republican ticket can't overcome."

____________________

straight talk:

I GOT GEORGIA ON MY MIND! GO GEORGIA GO!!!! HOME OF OVER 500,000+ AA. McCAIN IS IN TROUBLE IN ANY STATE THAT HAS LARGE AA AND HISPANIC VOTE!HE MAY BE IN A FIGHT FOR TX. TEXAS HAS A VERY LARGE MINORITY VOTE!

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:
____________________

orange24:

That's right - all of the honest politicians are found on the McCain side...

As the election nears, examples of political dirty tricks are emerging with greater frequency.

On Tuesday, the Virginia Pilot reported that a phony Board of Elections flier was circulating the state "advising Republicans to vote on Nov. 4 and Democrats on Nov. 5." Voting, of course, is on the 4th only, creating fear among neutral observers and the Obama campaign that people were simply going to miss the opportunity to go to the polls.

Earlier this month, meanwhile, an anonymous flier was circulating in predominantly African-American neighborhoods in Philadelphia telling voters they could be arrested at the polls if they show up to vote with outstanding arrest warrants or unpaid parking tickets. This is also untrue.

Dirty tricks and phony fliers represent the dark underside of nearly every election. And certainly, when it comes to the current contest, these tactics started long ago. Last March, as Time Magazine noted, a letter was being sent around Colorado, warning that out-of-state students could not register if their parents claimed them as dependents in another state." One of the more common falsities making its way through email chains has warned voters in some states (updated below) that they will be turned away from the polls if they wore paraphernalia demonstrating their support for one particular candidate.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Boomshak did you have any polling analysis from today's state polls? ROFL I didn't think so.

____________________

carl29:

The Heritage Foundation? The poster child of the Republican party :-) This is an authority for middle class/mainstream Americans. See, a non-partisan organization is attacking Obama. I wander why?

____________________

mysticlaker:

Holy ****!!!

White people are voting this black guy (I just found out, sorry guys) in Florida! WTF!!!!

____________________

Pat:

@boomshak:

"Also, I have noticed something about Rasmussen when I see him on FoxNews. When he talks about Obama being ahead, he seems almost giddy with excitement. I know he is supposed to be a Republican and all, but his attitude is just odd. Then when he talks about McCain getting closer, it looks like he just crapped his pants. Dunno, maybe he is an Obama guy?"

He probably has a guy crush on Obama. What do you think?

____________________

SoloBJ:

Investors Business Daily has been calling my number twice per day for the last several days usually in the early afternoon and again at night but when I pick up, they hang up. They just called 10 minutes ago. Isn't IBD affiliated with the TIPP poll?

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@SoloBJ

Could it be that they are jerks?

____________________

bmrKY:

Guys, I don't want to say how I got this info, but there is a HUGE new video tape that Drudge has linking Sarah Palin to CONVICTED Alaska senator Ted Stevens. All I can say is that it involves MONEY LAUNDERING and A SEX SCENE WITH SCREECH FROM SAVED BY THE BELL!

Drudge is releasing the tape today, but only to his boyfriend/lover Zogby. This tape is said to be EXPLOSIVE and will blow the campaign WIDE OPEN! Look for an Obama lead of +500,000,000 in tomorrows polls.

THIS IS A HUGE BREAKING DEVELOPMENT!

CNN, FOX and MSNBC will have more on it at 8 A.M. tomorrow morning. Be sure to tune in. Needless to say, it's gonna be a SHOCKING revelation to all the Palin supporters out there!

____________________

TheCanadian:

I decided to take the current pollster averages by state and apply it to the 2004 voter turnout to see what the national average would be (Wanted to see is this would show anything different than we are seeing in the national polls). I did not make any adjustments for population changes, but felt this would be fairly accurate as it. Results:

Obama: 49.8
McCain: 43.9
Und/Other: 6.3

This is in line with most national polls. It's probably a little higher lead for Obama, based on some of the polls (Specifically CA and NY) that came out this week showing much larger leads in those states than the average shows.

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
"INSIDE SCOOP - JUST HEARD THAT THE LATIMES OBAMA/RASHIDI VIDEO MAY BE RELEASED TOMORROW OR THE NEXT DAY - AND IT'S BAD, REALLY REALLY BAD."
A few of your last predictions:
- People care about Ayres
- Calling Obama socialist has an effect.
- Redistribution comment will destroy Obama
- There is an internal poll showing 2% differnce in PA
...
....
How can you make so many wrong statements?
look at bigMike, like you he is a McCain supporter, you dont hear anything but sensible comments from him.

Do you get some kind of perverse satisfaction from being wrong and humiliated?

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

Here is a video for all of you getting a little complacent:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xnk9aqih8o

____________________

political_junki:

Publius:
Read this for explanation of your link:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/harbinger.html

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Watch out in Georgia. I know what the polls say. But people are waiting in line over 6 hours to vote in heavily Democratic areas, particularly around Atlanta. The Rethugs I talk to are freaking out and complaining endlessly about "voter fraud," the US District Court ordering the Republican SOS to stop purging voter registration rolls in violation of the Voting Rights Act and Georgia law. Some crazy stuff going on around here."

Can you imagine someone named Mickey Mouse standing in line six hours? Or some guy who had registered twice under the name waiting hours, and then trying to get away with getting back in line to try and vote again?

The long lines pretty much makes it unlikely that someone is going to try and vote twice if there is any chance they'll be even reasonably checked. Doing so at the same precinct would be nutso.

In fact, many legally qualified Obama supporters are simply going to be frustrated. Are these things happening in the McCain suburbs and gated communities?

No one should have to wait in line more than three hours to vote...there needs to be a legal requirement that the State and County provided adequate facilities or the State must allow the individuals to submit a late absentee ballot.

____________________

carl29:

Publius,

It is called "spinning" :-) I had the best example with Rudy Guliani in Florida. Man, it was obvious that he was toast, but if you saw him on TV talking about how close the race was and how Floridians were to surprise the entire nation, you could fall for it. I wander what happened with all his "spinning"?

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

New Indiana poll from South Bend Tribune released this evening:

Obama 48
Mccain 47

Indiana is going to be very CLOSE!

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Indiana4Obama

As long as its close its bad news for McCain. They were bragging a month ago how Obama is spending big money there but it was useless. I believe Obama will lose Indiana but closeness is good.

____________________

political_junki:

Indiana4Obama:
Link please :-)

____________________

TheCanadian:

Just found this:

"A new Cronkite/Eight Poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama by just two points, 46% to 44%."

____________________

thunkaboudit:

How come no one seems to acknowledge that this election is STAGGERINGLY different than any election in this nation's history and that polling is likely to be off far more than is typical. If anything, the people that are going to be (and already are) turning out for Obama in DROVES are being underpolled... young people, blacks and other people that have been uninspired to vote up until now. There's simply no benchmark for this... mildly-educated guesses AT BEST. Most pollsters would naturally understimate these growths rather than overestimate.

I used to be worried, but I'm starting to think McCain is going to get completely blown out of the water on Nov 4th.

____________________

MisterMagoo:

Nothing (yet ?) on Drudge about Zogby's wednesday poll...Funny

____________________

bmrKY:

@Indiana4Obama

The internals of that poll show democrats with a one hundred point party ID advantage! They show that people don't care about William Ayers or Rashidi or Rev Wright! This simply CANNOT be the case! I refuse to believe that Americans want a change from fearmongering neocon politics that have bankrupted our nation! I mean, who in their right mind would choose hope, inspiration and intelligence over fear, distrust and the dumbass you want to have a beer with?

Not just this poll, but every other poll released this month equals...

FAIL!

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

OMG! OMG! OMG!

BREAKING NEWS!

SCANDAL ALERT!

ZOMG! ZOMG! ZOMG!

There is a tape of the famous McCain tirade towards his wife where he calls her a c#nt! Never before seen footage will be all over the news by this time tomorrow. If you don't want your children running around the house screaming "c#nt! c#nt! stinky c#nt!" you better not turn on the television machine tomorrow.

THIS IS HUGE AND BREAKING RIGHT NOW!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSUNmF7Qyhg&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cxuSXgKv7A&feature=related

THIS IS GOING TO SINK HIS CAMPAIGN.

oh wait, that already happened.

____________________

carl29:

These Republicans are real crocks.

Now, machines in TX are switching the votes from Obama to McCain. I mean, in TX?

____________________

Publius:

carl29 and junki:

Thank you for the information. It looked like a snow job with enough spin to make one dizzy. I imagine they released it so the press would report something other that Palin's clothes.

I think that Obama's support is plenty deep and that AAs are voting in droves, as will many white Democrats who remember 2000.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

www.Indystar.com...

I think Obama has a real shot here. I did some phone banking last week and plan on doing more this weekend, and the responses have been very positive.

Obama drew 35K in downtown Indianapolis last week on a Thursday morning, the northwest part of the state looks very strong for Obama, and the southern part of the state looks more open than past elections.

At the very least, I predict Indiana will not be called at 6:01 pm as it has in the past few elections. That's progress...

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

@MisterMagoo

I noticed that Drudge didn't have it either

____________________

cinnamonape:

Mysticlaker....wanna have some fun. Click on the satellite image on that lumberyard that McCain is appearing at and zoom on down. It's right between two railroad tracks.

Obama should hire a couple of trains and schedule them to go by right before and during the McCain speech with horns blaring and blocking traffic. Maybe they could plaster the cars with Obama signs and "The Real McCain...A Freight Train Missing Its Caboose" or "McCain-An Economic Plan That's Off Its Rails!"

____________________

TheCanadian:

I'm in Southern Indiana, right across the river from Louisville in Clark county. I was going to go vote yesterday at the county building in Jeffersonville, I was surprised when I got there and there was a line of at least 30 people waiting to vote (Probably more, I was at security and couldn't see down the hall). I didn't have time to wait in line at the time, so I left. The guard told me that more and more people are coming in every day.

Although Clark county voted 57% for Bush in 04, Jeffersonville and Clarksville is a lot more democratic than the rest of the county.

____________________

MancJon:

Only managed to read about half the comments so far, but I have to say that these comments have provided some of the most thoughtful debate I have read on this site.

Liz in NJ; Burrito, James in Glasgow; Kent_Girl: Thanks for your measured and insightful comments. You remind me of the potential force for good that the US can be. Thank you.

Jon in Southampton (UK)

____________________

bmrKY:

BREAKING NOOZ: From Joe The Plumber to... Sarah The Socialist???

In August this year, a few weeks before being nominated for vice president, Sarah Palin said in an interview with Philip Gourevitch that Alaska is "set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

____________________

jeepdad:

Hmmm ... 9 pm and still no Zogby leak from Drudge ...

____________________

carl29:

Indiana4Obama,

Of course that Obama has a shot in IN. Palin is going back and Biden too. When people talks about the "Bradley Effect," they seem to miss that not even the McCain campaigns believes in it (although they talk about to give their people hope).

Why do you think that Palin is going to IN when polls show the race dead heat? If the Bradley effect was a reality, McCain wouldn't be nervious about it. A dead heat race would mean McCain ahead by 5%, so why worry? I think they are actually afraid of the "Reversed Bradley Effect," Obama support underestimated in polls.

____________________

oicu:

@publius:

it was deliberately given to the media. So it's not what they believe, it's what they want you to think they believe. i.e. it's BS.

____________________

jswarren:

I'm starting to get worried about my election party. I'd like it to last a little longer than a half an hour.

____________________

zotz:

Indiana4Obama-
I remember a few weeks ago listening to a McCain surrogate saying that he was glad Obama was wasting so much money in FL because it took money away from the real swing states!
LOL!

____________________

Bigmike:

Lions and tigers and bears, oh my.

In three days, lib icon daily kos has gone from O +12 to O +7. At that rate, things will be tied by....

....

....

....

What do you know, tied by the weekend.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Publius- I seriously doubt that a pollster is going to release a memo with the details of his internal polling to the public...particularly one that reveals his "internals".

So I can only think that this was released for 3 reasons. It was leaked to:

1) keep up the morale of a rapidly disintegrating campaign that is turning against itself and pointing fingers.

2) discourage the NRC from cutting off the McCain campaign and shunting money instead to the campaigns of Congressional candidates.

3) continue to have Obama compete in States that are already "won" and thus diminish the losses in "red states" if the campaign shifts there. This could result in an even greater loss of Congressional seats and Governorships if Obama shifts his resources to them.

3)

____________________

political_junki:

Mike in those 3 days NV went blue and GA and MT yellow and AZ and MS pink too :-)

____________________

Bigmike:

political_junki

From what I have seen, for whatever reason, state polls tend to lag 2-3 days behind the national polls. I'm telling you, it ain't over until Oprah sings.

____________________

political_junki:

Well, I think it is over but since we dont want to end the fun, lets assume it is not!

____________________

jeepdad:


For more about the so-called Bradley effect, I like to point to the 2006 race for Tennessee senator between Harold Ford and Corker. The final RCP poll was Corker +6, but Ford came within 3 points (51-48). This was a race that most Democrats had written off, but it ended closer than anticipated.

11/01-11/05
RCP Average 50.3 44.3 4.5 Corker +6.0
SurveyUSA 51 46 4 Corker +5.0
Rasmussen 51 47 2 Corker +4.0
USA Today 49 46 3 Corker +3.0
Mason-Dixon 50 38 9 Corker +12.0

____________________

carl29:

zotz,

That was one of McCain's biggest mistakes, let Obama build his organization and introduce himself to the American people on his own terms. In FL for example, Obama spent millions of dollars on TV talking about issues that Americans care about. McCain just let him go unanswered, now McCain is running around FL scared that the state could go for Obama. We don't know what will happen at the end of the day, but the fact that McCain is now campaigning in the state in the closing days before the elections, it is already is a victory for Obama. Obama has effectively brougth the fight to the GOP turf, which is exactly what you want strategically :-)

____________________

zotz:

"From what I have seen, for whatever reason, state polls tend to lag 2-3 days behind the national polls"

For whatever reasons? You know this theory makes no sense.

____________________

bmrKY:

http://www.azpbs.org/horizon/poll/2008/10-28-08.htm

Arizona
McCain 46
Obama 44

Yet another poll this week showing the race in Arizona within 5 points. Boom was right for once, the polls are tightening... he just didn't say WHICH polls would tighten. This is definately NOT "GREAT NEWS" for John McCain. I'd love to see Obama do a western swing before next Tuesday, ending with a stop in Phoenix. That would be a real slap in the face and buzz kill for the GOP.

____________________

jasonAZ:

New AZ poll from cronkiteeight:

McCain 46
Obama 44


http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/28/cronkiteeight_poll_mccain_could_lose_arizona.html

Boom ! AZ into tossup :-)

____________________

Trosen:

I know right where that Lumber yard is. It's right off Ludlam avenue and 8th street (Calle Ocho) in Miami. It's right in the heart of Elian/we hate Castro country, so it's pretty friendly terrain for McCain. Very strange place for a rally. Plus, that area gets crazy traffic just on normal days.

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

Of course that McCain is coming to "Cubanolandia." I live right among those crazy, fanatic, old Cubans.

____________________

Weavermiami:

I will be volunteering every day to Barack the vote in Florida . Vote early, then VOLUNTEER!

____________________

Trosen:

Now now.. nothing wrong with our Cuban American friends here. I just wish they'd get over their hatred of JFK and stop voting GOP.

____________________

carl29:

@Weavermiami,

what do you do exactly?

____________________

Bigmike:

zotz

I didn't say it made sense. But it is what I have observed on this very site, if I am not badly mistaken.

I'm telling you, this is getting close enough that the Bradley effect and the Diebold effect may tip it the other way.

____________________

zotz:

carl29-
It is especially remarkable since he did not campaign in FL in the primaries. A month ago David Ploffe said they needed $38 million to win FL. They have been lucky but also their organization has been amazing!

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Bigmike

So we are resting hopes on racism and fraud to win?

____________________

Publius:

cinnamonape:

It looked that way to me and seemed rather odd that they would release it through the WSJ, as opposed to sites that get more traffic.

McCain simply doesn't have a message and is embarrassing himself in every way. If Palin is trying to position herself for 2012, she'd better get a new argument because Obama will have much more executive experience than she will. Anyone think she will run for the Senate, or is Governor her preferred platform?

____________________

Trosen:

Weavermiami:
"I will be volunteering every day to Barack the vote in Florida . Vote early, then VOLUNTEER!"

Don't you ever get away from the computer?

____________________

political_junki:

@BigMike:
If it was a popular vote election, you would have been right.
But there are some states (and important ones) that are not following the national polls, atleast havnt so far: VA,PA,CO.
FL and OH may flip but those 3 wont and IA wont either and neither any of Kerry's states. and that is enough.
We didnt count for NV by the way.

____________________

Bigmike:

Pro-America_Anti-America

Just poking libs in the ribs a little. Can you imagine how flamed they will be if we the American people "steal" another one. Freaking priceless.

____________________

bmrKY:

"Pro-America_Anti-America:
@Bigmike

So we are resting hopes on racism and fraud to win"

Yes, because those who support the neocon agenda know that it's the only way they can "win" this time around.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Does anyone have any numbers on AA voting percentages in 2004 compared to projections this year? In other words, what percentage of AAs voted in 2004 and how much greater is it expected this year?

____________________

bmrKY:

"Bigmike:
Pro-America_Anti-America

Just poking libs in the ribs a little. Can you imagine how flamed they will be if we the American people "steal" another one. Freaking priceless."

Oh yeah, Ken Blackwell and Katherine Harris voter suppression. That was just so "freaking priceless."

Tool.

____________________

straight talk:

@ McCAIN SUPPORTERS

WHAT STATE POLL CAN YOU POINT TO THAT SHOWS McCAIN GAINING? I HEAR NOISE IN THE TRACKING POLLS, BUT I DON'T SEE IT IN THE STATE POLLS? WHY IS ARE YOU WISHIN THIS RACE TO BE TIED NATIONALLY? PRESIDENT IS ELECTED BY EV NO POPULAR VOTE. IF IT WAS THAN AL GORE WOULD HAVE BEEN PRESIDENT? AND TELL ME WHY McCAIN THINKS HE CAN WIN PA? LANDSLIDE ALERT.............

____________________

political_junki:

"how flamed they will be."
Not half as flamed as BOOM now :-)

____________________

DTM:

@Bigmike

I can do even better.

From 10/16 to 10/18, the R2K poll went from O+11 to O+7.

At that rate, McCain is currently ahead +13!

In fact, from 9/23 to 9/24, the R2K poll went from O+6 to O+4. At that rate, McCain is currently +64!

____________________

Bigmike:

Don't be lumping me in with those neo-con a**holes. Or the social conservative/evangelicals either.

You want my honest take.

Obama by 4 pts with about 350 EV. Two reasons.

1-McCain has run a horrible campaign.

2-People are fed up with Bush and Co.

But in the end, the change we are gonna get is a little, maybe even a lot, more than what the public really wants. With Obama. Pelosi, and Reid running things, we are gonna take this lurch to the left, when all people really wanted was rid of Bush.

If us fiscal conservatives are still hoping for a miracle, do you blame us? If it were the other way around, wouldn't you libs be hoping for one?

What I want is to see the look on lib faces when they find out Obama doesn't walk on water. That is gonna be priceless too.

____________________

straight talk:

@ McCAIN SUPPORTERS

PEW HAS US UP BY 15%+! THE MOST ACCURATE POLLSTER OF 2004! AND CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN WHY McCAIN IS ONLY UP BY 2% IN AZ? AND WHY DON'T THE McCAIN CAMPAIGN HAVE ANY OFFICES IN GA! IT IS A BATTLEGROUND STATE! LANDSLIDE ALERT........!

____________________

carl29:

zotz,

I think that the most frigtning thing for the McCain campaign is the turnout that we are seeing in FL. The early voting has being just incredible. Actually, our very "heterosexual" Gov. Crist had to extent the early voting hours because it was at the level of crisis. Who is voting early? Overwhelmingly Democrats.

Remember that all polls are based on LIKELY voters model, but with a huge turnout, especially among youth and minorities, their is no way to predict the final outcome. Again, obviously the McCain campaigning is not buying the Bradley Effect, in FL at least, because if that were the case McCain wouldn't be spending time and money when the race is dead even according to the polls. A dead even race - Bradley Effect should be giving McCain a 5% lead, isn't how the Bradley effect works? However, McCain looks desperate and the viciousness of his ads in the state tell the story. Additionally, Florida has very expensive media markets, so it is a small fortune what McCain is investing.

____________________

bmrKY:

"political_junki:
@BigMike:
If it was a popular vote election, you would have been right.
But there are some states (and important ones) that are not following the national polls, atleast havnt so far: VA,PA,CO."

Exactly! There hasn't been much movement in those three states over the last month, even as national polls flucuated one way or another. It's also assuming quite a bit to think that ALL of the swing states that are mostly currently leaning Obama by several points will ALL swing to McCain in the event that the race "tightens" further. We know that Obama isn't going to win states like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, etc. by 10 points. The thing is, he doesn't have to. If he wins Kerry, Iowa, and New Mexico, he only has to win ONE of those states by ONE vote. Even IF national polls close to a 2-3 point Obama lead, he STILL has an easier path to 270 than McCain. And really, at the end of the day, 270 is all that matters.

____________________

DTM:

@Bigmike

I think the good news for fiscal conservatives is that things are potentially right on track for another Clinton-Gingrich scenario (the best fiscal combination in recent memory). As it turns out, Republicans are only fiscal conservatives when acting as the opposition party, but assuming they get their act together sometime in the next couple elections (which will necessarily mean taking back control of the party from the big government social conservatives), they may have the chance to play that role again.

____________________

Northeastern Republican:

well said mike. i've never seen people so passionate about a candidate whos done so little and who they know so little about. i was just saying to a friend of mine today how great its going to be when theres no republicans left to blame in just a few months. for one, as soon as the cap gains taxes go up, wall street will be toast. cant wait to see obama try to blame that on bush - and when that argument becomes meaningless in the eyes and ears of americans.

____________________

political_junki:

"What I want is to see the look on lib faces when they find out Obama doesn't walk on water. That is gonna be priceless too."

Obama, Clinton or any other democrat, as you said, I just want to get rid of Bush. O=I would have loved Clinton or Edwards as much as Obama.

____________________

Bigmike:

carl29

Who is voting early? Overwhelmingly Democrats.

From what I have seen, it is more REGISTERED Dems than Reps voting early. But remember that, expecially in the south, places like FL, NC and VA, REGISTERED Dems often vote Rep for president.

____________________

DTM:

Some liberals may indeed find Obama's incrementalism and pragmatism frustrating, but on the other hand conservatives who bought the radical line are going to be pleasantly surprised.

____________________

Looie:

Forecast: Cleveland, 65 + sunny.
Forecast: Miami, 82 + scattered showers.
According to weather.com.

I think that weather helps Obama.

____________________

Dana Adini:

I think Obama will be a fiscal conservative. He's smart and the fact that big Dem congress will scare him. I guarantee he will lead from the center

____________________

hou04:

Has anyone seen the big headline on Drudge tonight? :)

____________________

Bigmike:

DTM

Lots of people have lots of reasons to dislike dubya. Mine is the deficits. He ought to know better than that.

Northeastern Republican

Thank you sir.

____________________

bmrKY:

@carl29:

"Actually, our very "heterosexual" Gov. Crist"


Okay, this had me ROFLMAO!

____________________

carl29:

Bigmike,

I can actually give you the percentage, around 15% to 20% of REGISTERED Democrats vote Republican in the state of Florida. However, believe me, a DINO won't stand in line for 3 hours to cast his or her ballot for McCain. That requires a high level of enthusiam that just a great supporter will show. Those DINOS are usually old Democrats who vote either by absentee ballot or on election day. So, no those are not the ones that are pushing early voting in record numbers, but if it makes you happy to believe that they are the ones standing hours and hours in line to cast their ballots? So it be :-)

____________________

political_junki:

Bigmike, Bigmike:

You underestimate Obamas political pragmatism. He will be more to the center fiscally than you can imagine. I wish there was a way to bet on this with you guys :-)

____________________

bmrKY:

"Northern Republican:

i've never seen people so passionate about a candidate whos done so little and who they know so little about."


You mean like the neocons are doing by rallying around Sarah Palin and basically saying "Uh, McCain, creepy old dude, get off the stage so we can listen to Sarah speak about change, energy independence, and William Ayers."

Maybe the rallying around Obama has something to do with the failed neocon president who has done nothing but inspire fear and hate over the last 8 years? Maybe, just maybe, that has something to do with it.

____________________

DTM:

@Bigmike

It turns out faith-based budgeting isn't a great idea.

Incidentally, McCain clearly doesn't know or care much about budgeting either. I can understand the view that even so it would be better to combine him with a Democratic Congress than Obama, but I actually think that is a very open question--I personally think it would be pretty easy for McCain to find himself compromising spending/deficits upward, whereas I really do think Obama understands the basic issues and will be inclined to some self-discipline.

____________________

Bigmike:

You guys seem to like painting Obama as a centrist, pragmatist, and even CONSERVATIVE.

Hogwash.

How in the hell is redistributing the wealth centrist or conservative?

Do you really expect he is going to fight the Dem majority in congress?

I know his health care plan is touted as incremental change in health insurance policies. By the time "Lets take over health care" Hillary and the others in congress get done, it will be much more than that. Even if they adopt Obamas plan verbatim, millions more will depend on the govt for health insurance in a short time.

This guy is a LIBERAL Democrat.

____________________

bmrKY:

@Political Junki:

"Obama, Clinton or any other democrat, as you said, I just want to get rid of Bush. O=I would have loved Clinton or Edwards as much as Obama."

I could NOT agree with you more! I would've even voted for crazy psycho Gravel. That's how much I detest what the republican/neocon party has done to this country these last 8 years.

____________________

jeepdad:

Still no leaked zogby numbers from drudge ...

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Bigmike and other sensible members of the loyal opposition-to-be:

Obama will be pragmatic and fair. His entire public life has been that way. Perhaps the most emblematic period of his life was his editorship of the Harvard Law Review. Ask the Federalist Society members of the review how they were treated under Obama's editorship. Or look into it. He is not a vindictive person and he is going to be utterly committed to being a successful president. That means he'll have to reach out and broaden his appeal if he is to be successful. I have my doubts that he'll be allowed to do it in the very toxic political climate we have. And that, my friends (as your leader would say), is due largely to the go-for-broke, anything goes style of political opposition that the GOP has elevated to primacy in American politics. I think if anyone has a chance to heal our broken political discourse, it is Obama, but I am not holding my breath.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Wow McCain is now really just pulling people out of the crowd to stump for him.

Joe the Dumber

I guess this means that anyone no matter how stupid, or dishonest can become a McCain surrogate. BTW if you are interested in who that MSM report is that chastised him, he works for Fixed News. Pretty bad when the Right-Wing water carriers at Faux News call you an freakin' idiot.

____________________

saywhat90:

bigmike:

hate to tell you but redistributing is also whar so called trickle down economics involves. only it expects the private sector to do it.

____________________

political_junki:

"In PA, Palin hits Obama on '01 Supreme Court comments"

Funny, I have a feeling that the redistribution remarks will help Obama in a state like PA. Its economy has been hard and when somebody is laid off or is making minimum wage, redistribution wont sound that bad to him...

____________________

carl29:

The most recent update of early voting in Miami Dade County, South Florida:

As today 270,073 people have already voted in Dade Co., compared to a TOTAL of 778,953 of voted who cast their ballots in 2004, early + on election day. So far 36% of people have already voted. We still have 5 more days of early voting :-)

*I think we will reach mid 40's by Sunday night.

____________________

hou04:

@jeepdad

I am sure Drudge has them, but is not posting them because Obama may be a bit ahead than yesterday?

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@As for the other GOP idiots,

Dems will not "redistribute" to the detriment of the economy. If you had any regard for data, you'd know that the American economy has fared best -- higher personal income growth, greater gains in productivity, increased GDP/per capita -- during unified democratic administrations. The American economy has done worse on those performance indicators and many others while ruled by the GOP. Those are facts. That's what the empirical evidence shows. That's what the data indicate. Period. So STFU, please, and stick your dumb, ancient Cold War, McCarthy propaganda back up your "collective" a-holes. What a group of nitwits and brain-dead jerks you are. Pay attention to the frigg'n data for god's sake and quit spouting your stupid campaign bull****.

____________________

Northeastern Republican:

in regards to drudge zogby numbers - i wouldnt read too much into it. the night obama burst out with a 10 point lead in zogby drudge was the first to report it. sometimes he seems to have them early and sometimes not. but ive seen him report htem early for the good or the bad.

____________________

Bigmike:

Oh where to start. Gather round libs, school is in session.

Boris_Dieter

That means he'll have to reach out and broaden his appeal if he is to be successful.

With dems in charge of both houses of congress he will not HAVE to do anything of the sort.

OneAngryDwarf

Why, it was the hand of God almighty that took Obama down Joe's street. How can you argue with that.

saywhat90:
bigmike:

hate to tell you but redistributing is also whar so called trickle down economics involves. only it expects the private sector to do it.

Absolutely wrong my friend. But you do get fine parting gifts for playing. Supply side economics doesn't take anything from anyone against their will. If they choose to spend it, it is their choice. Creating MORE wealth for us all to share in. Sounds much better to me than "Lets take some of yours and give it away."

Next

____________________

political_junki:

I always have had utmost respect for fiscal conservatives like you Mike. What I really cant stand are those freako social conservative like Palin and I think there are a lot of people like me, atleast I see them a lot around me. What I never understand is why it is impossible to get a socially progressive, fiscally conservative candidate. It is like you either have to have the freak or the big spender.

bigMike, any thought?

____________________

Dana Adini:

any word on Zogby numbers?

____________________

DTM:

@Bigmike

Generally, I'm quite familiar with Obama's history and fairly confident in my predictions.

To answer your specific questions:

(1) All Obama has actually been arguing is that increasing the amount of wealth that ends up in the hands of middle-class consumers would be good for the overall economy. That is a ridiculously uncontroversial view on our current economic situation, but of course McCain et al have a vested interest in treating his comments as announcing some sort of radical agenda.

(2) I think your premise is a bit off. The Democrats in Congress are not a monolithic group, so the question is really whether Obama will make a point of working in good faith with "Blue Dog" Democrats and moderate Republicans. And yes, for various reasons I think he will.

But look, the bottom line is that I understand that right no--in the heat of political battle--it is going to be tough to persuade anyone of these things. I am very sincere, however, in believing that you will be pleasantly surprised.

____________________

political_junki:

jeepDad, Dana,
You guys are in rush ? :-)
They will be out in 2 hours.
Stop obsessing over national polls, PA, VA and CO wont budge even if the national polls tighten :-)

____________________

marctx:

hi all,

i know this looks bad for McCain. I figured since weeks ago that if McCain can't pull within 3 points, its over.

We need a miracle or a super bradley effect to win.

Conservatives need to turn out in record numbers.

All we have is a wish for another primary season NH.

____________________

DTM:

"Right noW"

____________________

political_junki:

marctx:
BOOM still calls you a traitor behind your back! I dont know why it wasnt him you betrayed :-)

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Bigmike

With Dems in control of both houses in 1992-94
Clinton failed because he didn't reach out. The American political system isn't just the majorities one holds in Congress. The interest group system and the media won't allow excessive policies and overreaching if those are attempted. Moreover, many of the Democrats who might win and who won in 2006 are far from being San Francisco liberals. You, sir, are demonstrating that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Finally, Democrats today, as a group, understand just as well as you do that the pre-eminent force in any economy is the drive for personal gain. There might be some room in American society of a bit of "fairness" and some "redistribution" as its called by your ilk (unless of course it's redistribution to failed big shots and bloated oil companies), but Democrats are not interested in destroying the drive and energy that profit-seeking and utility maximizing people generate in an economy. No one has yet been able to design an economic order that functions better than one that uses prices signals and profit motive to inform the market as to what to produce and how to distribute it. Dems and Reps both know that. They just operate within a fairly short band to produce different policies in a select set of areas. So now STFU and quit your pompous stance and your phony air of tolerant erudition.

____________________

cjc:

The ironic thing is if you go by the socialist standard conservatives put to Obama, the MOST SOCIALIST candidate on either ticket is Sarah Palin. She often touts her redistribution of oil revenues to the people of Alaska and even said that Alaska is "set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs." Collective ownership...sounds like communism to me.

____________________

marctx:

political_junki:

yeah i hate that guy. it was too late because i already voted for McCain.

i dared to cross lines and vote for McCain and even McCain supporters diss me.

I have no more confidence we will win.

I just hope Obama is all he says and not what he as done.

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

@ Northeastern Republican,

When Zogby broke out with a 6 to 12 point lead last week, there was no sign of it on Drudge... Only that TIPP poll stays on there all day so cut the crap!

____________________

Dana Adini:

In New Mexico Bernalillo by far the largest county in the state (34% of state tally in 2004) where Kerry won by a slim 51-48%. The rest of the State voted 51-48 Bush who won by couplle thousand votes. This election dems registration is 48% GOP 32% Ind 20% in the county.

early Returns
Voters Turnout
Dems 54.10% 30.63%
GOP 33.58% 27.96%
Ind. 12.32% 16.77%
Total 27.01%

If dems reach 68% turnout they will out GOP even if the latter reach 100% turnout

____________________

Lechuguilla:

A note of caution to those who are so upbeat about the heavy Democratic turnout in early voting in Florida.

Southern Democrats don't necessarily vote for the Democratic candidate. They are rather more conservative, and "some" may vote for McCain.

Ergo, just because more Democrats have voted than Repubs in Florida does not at all mean that Obama is leading in Florida.

Lech

____________________

danzelsimage:

@Boris_Dieter:

Well said!

____________________

bmrKY:

@Big Mike:

"How in the hell is redistributing the wealth centrist or conservative?"

In August this year, a few weeks before being nominated for vice president, Sarah Palin said in an interview with Philip Gourevitch that Alaska is "set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

Colin Powell (Republican; Obama supporter): "Taxes are always a redistribution of wealth."

John McCain---> One of only TWO republican senators, along with Lincoln Chafee (another Obama supporter), to vote against the first round of Bush tax cuts in 2001. Voted against Bush tax cuts in 2003. In a 2000 Meet The Press interview, McCain stated "Many studies have indicated that... the people who need... the relief most are working middle-income Americans and that's what I want to give to them." In an ad that year, McCain stated: "There's one big difference between me and the others - I won't take every last dime of the surplus and spend it on tax cuts that mostly benefit the wealthy." He even stated that the Bush tax cuts unfairly favored the rich at the expense of the middle class Americans who needed the most tax relief.

Does that mean McCain is a socialist? Or is he a recovering socialist? I thought, according to the McCain supporters, that wealth should go to the TOP first and the BOTTOM second in order to maintain a strong economy. You know, that old John McCain sure made a lot of sense. A lot more than the current John McCain, that's for damn sure.

____________________

Basil:

Mike

Redistributing the wealth is what the Bush admin has been fixated on for 8 years, with great success. Bush's base is the wealthiest people in the country, and he has bent over forwards to accommodate them.

All taxation results in some form of redistribution of wealth. That's the idea. So any tax reform scheme redistributes wealth differently.

If you're anti-tax in general, OK. Otherwise, I don't get it.

____________________

jeepdad:

political junki:

I know, I know. It's an obsession that will be over soon, I hope.

____________________

Dana Adini:

If these numbers in NM hold up for a cuople of more days you can Flip NM blue with certainty

____________________

DTM:

@Lechuguilla

The thing is that Southern Democrats still tend to vote for Democratic candidates more than Southern Republicans. So the net gain may not be quite as much as some people may assume, but more Democrats voting relative to Republicans is still good news for Obama, even in the South.

____________________

Dana Adini:

lechu

I wasn't getting excited about early number in lousiana even though dems are outvoting gop by wide margins.

In NC though all the polls show that dems are voting 85-15 obama so high turnout means something.

NM and Nevada the early numbers are GREAT

____________________

Basil:

Bmr

Beat me to it. :-)

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

AND TO EVERYONE:

Decisions to tax and spend money, made by elected officials in a democracy is not equivalent to an act of robbery in the parking lot by some ****ing Robin Hood. You might find being force to pay taxes for things we don't want objectionable. But it happens all the time, even in the private sector. Part of the price of living in a democracy with majority is that you sometimes get to be on the losing side of decisions. If you think of every allocation of resources that departs from your preference as redistribution, you've basically blown the piss out of the meaning of words. I pay interest rates on loans, in part because of the idiocy of other people. My insurance rates on this and that reflect the cost of what others do. Theft and bad conduct in stores is reflected in the price of goods, and stores don't try to eliminate the last bit of theft, but pass on the costs to customers. It happens all the time. If you don't like the policies of people in democracies, you vote against the bastards and try to convince your neighbors and friends and others to join you. I pay for lots of things that Republican legislators support and that I don't and sure as hell don't think I've been robbed. Quit talking about decision making in republics as if the rule of unanimity prevailed. For most decisions there will be those on the losing side, and if we think of those "losses" as somehow the same as being robbed or having lost our liberty, then I suggest you cannot tell the difference between the U.S. and Zimbabwe. If that is your point, then there isn't any point in talking to your dumb-ass.

____________________

Bigmike:

Boris_Dieter

Horse apples.

If Dems really understand supply and demand, the profit motive, and all those other components of basic capitalism, when are they going to start acting like it?

If one of us needs to STFU for being pompous, I don't think it is me, Boris baby.

____________________

carl29:

Lechuguilla,

Those DINOs are old democrats who vote by absentee ballot and live in the North part of the state. Those people will not bother to stand hours and hours in early voting to cast their ballots. By the way, the actual % of Democratic cross-over vote is usually between 15% to 20%.

____________________

The Dude:

I love it now as the repugs on this board are now offering advice to Obama to govern from the center. Where was all of this advice the last eight years?! Bush broke every last one of his promises and no one acknowledges this on their side.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Bigmike,

Dems don't have to start anything. They've done it. Their record of economic excellence and performance is demonstrably superior to that of their GOP counterparts. That's the fact, Jack. That's the data. That's the evidence. As someone who feigns reasonableness and rigor, you should know that. So what is it that Dems have to demonstrate? It's the GOP that tends to **** up the economy when they hold office. In the world I live, it's the guys who crack up that have to show that they are grown-up and can drive, not the ones with the triple-A rating.

____________________

bmrKY:

@Basil

"All taxation results in some form of redistribution of wealth. That's the idea. So any tax reform scheme redistributes wealth differently.

If you're anti-tax in general, OK. Otherwise, I don't get it."


Agreed. If McCain is so anti-socialism, then I'd like to see him stop collecting social security and give up his nice health care coverage that he receives as a member of congress. There's nothing more socialist than social security and good health care coverage.

BTW, Stephen Colbert just stated that the McCain campaign has a new supporter... Joe The McCarthy. LMAO!

____________________

cjc:

What the crap does "supply and demand" have to do with a reinstatement of 3% of the marginal tax rate over $250,000? After all, that's the "socialist redistribution" we're talking about.

____________________

Steve_OH:

@Bigmike:

"Supply side economics doesn't take anything from anyone against their will."

During the heyday of supply-side economics, more and more of the wealth of the US became concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. That, my friend, is taking from people against their will.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Bigmike

You are such a phony horse's ass and ignorant slob. Go consult your Wikpedia or whatever crutch you use to make your silly points. You have no interest in sticking to data. All you have are ludicrous platitudes from the Nixon era. ****, the next thing I'll be hearing is some reference to the ****ing Silent Majority. Go suck an egg you jerk.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Ill take NV and NM that along with Iowa put Obama at 269 Dormie together with Kerry states. After that all he needs is one of the following

VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, MO, MT, SD, GA, CO

if those are 50-50 McCains chances are 1 in 1024

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Bigmike

You are such a phony horse's ass and ignorant slob. Go consult your Wikpedia or whatever crutch you use to make your silly points. You have no interest in sticking to data. All you have are ludicrous platitudes from the Nixon era. ****, the next thing I'll be hearing is some reference to the ****ing Silent Majority. Go suck an egg you jerk.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Just to throw in something practical to the 'redistribution of wealth' argument:

The EIC - Earned Income Tax Credit. Started in 1975 and popularized in 1986 by that great socialist - uh - Ronald Reagan???

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit

____________________

Bigmike:

Boris

Of course we have had better economies under Dems. You want to know why? World War 2 and Vietnam are two big reasons. How far back you want to take the data?

You like your data a littler fresher than that? I know I do. Clinton was the lucky beneficiary of an explosion in productivity. Nothing he did brought this about. It was PC's and the internet. In case you have forgotten, the internet was pioneered by the folks who brought you DARPANet. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. Yep, the good old military-industrial complex. So lets cross Clinton off the list of "causing" a good economy.

Gee, that leaves us with Jimmy Carter. You really sure you want to go there? I lived it, and I damn sure don't want to go back there.

____________________

DTM:

@Bigmike

Again, it is a fundamental mistake to treat Democrats as monolithic. Do you really think Warren Buffet doesn't understand economics? Or Paul Volcker?

And again, you may not believe me, but these really are the people Obama is going to be listening to.

____________________

bmrKY:

@Big Mike

Yeah, and we've lived under Bush NEOCONS... and we SURE AS HELL don't want to repeat that.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@cjc

I don't like the "moral" justification for the increase in marginal rates. I would justify them as necessary to fund a stimulus. Folks in higher income tax brackets have benefitted in numerous ways from other tax breaks. In a democracy, if you can't convince people who pay taxes why it's important to do so, and if those who pay the higher taxes feel put upon, well that's a failure for sure. I can tell you, though, that if we want to get into a discussion about income "redistribution" in the U.S. I can tell you that there is very little of it, if any, and most of it that does happen involves moving income from the wage-earning households to others. The argument is that this somehow stimulates the growth of a greater pie that benefits us all, and if that is true, it might justify such a policy. But the evidence regarding that is unclear, and my own preference would be to eliminate all tax benefits from the tax code and reduce the overall tax burden. I happen to favor complete elimination of the capital gains tax, except for unimproved property and for all currently held assets. Currently held investments don't need a stimulus, and since cutting the capital gains is costly, there is no need to provide more of a cut than is required. So, as a liberal, I believe I am not that distant from many conservatives. I would also eliminate all tax benefits for home loans and home ownership, since it is ridiculously inefficient and inequitable. I might consider tax benefits for owner occupied housing for first time home owners. In any case, I'm delighted to have reasonable, informed discussions about economic policy and business regulation with thinking people. I don't like the bull**** involved with spouting campaign slogans. As you can tell it brings out the worst in me. And yes, I agree with Bigmike about one thing: I am definitely pompous and I am, obviously, a wind-bag.

____________________

Bigmike:

bmrKY

Yeah, and we've lived under Bush NEOCONS... and we SURE AS HELL don't want to repeat that.

Agreed

____________________

Lechuguilla:

Regardless of early voting trends in Florida, the Florida poll numbers look good.

And the early voting trends in Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada look terrific. Those three states should, as mentioned above, be enough to get Obama to 269, even without Florida.

Lech :)

____________________

DTM:

By the way, it is equally true that many Republicans understand economics, including some Republican Presidents. Eisenhower, for example, had perfectly sensible views on the economy. Bush the Senior actually coined the term "voodoo economics". And so forth.

But again, I see no evidence McCain is in this group.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@bigmike

Oh yes, doofus, if you knew your data, you'd know that the actual, real growth rates during the entire, short four year period of the Carter administration was actually pretty good. Check it out. He did end up with massive bout of inflation produced by commodity inflation associated with the oil embargos. Carter's fiscal polices -- taxing and spending were among the most conservative of all democrats. And, by the way, he initiated the great de-regulation in telecommunications and transportation that led contributed to the explosion of growth in those industries. And, please excuse me, you are suggesting that the economic expansions of the democratic administrations since the New Deal was just happenstance? Well, you have an excuse of everything. The data indicate that the economy generally does better under democrats than it does under the GOP. To suggest that it was the Vietnam War that produced prosperity is stupid -- that war was at its height and most intense through the Nixon/Kissinger years. What am i doing arguing with the likes of you. You are only interested in debator's tactics. Ciao

____________________

cjc:

@Boris:
I don't believe I was making a 'moral' argument for marginal tax rates. I was just saying that Obama's proposed increase in rates over $250K is far from the 'socialism' labeled by the right.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

sorry cjc:

I allowed bigmike to rattle me. For some reason he annoys me, even though he's far from terrible. So we are in agreement. If redistribution is "socialism." By far the most massive socialism in the U.S. involves the shifting of wealth from wage earners-- no matter how high -- to those whose incomes come in the form of capital gains. Not since the 1920's has income become as unequal, and during the past eight years the U.S. has slipped along virtually every indicator of economic performance. And any growth that we did experience turns out in the end to have been largely a house of cards. Every country that got into the same game is now paying the price, including some that our GOP brothers and sisters would call "socialist."

____________________

zotz:

Bigmike-
In foreign policy how is McCain less of a neocon than Bush? You heard him bluster about Georgia. Bush, at least now, seems more moderate than McCain. McCain strategy is amazingly simplistic. He just repeats the word "surge" whenever he is asked about Iraq or Afganistan. Inspite of his experience he can't handle the complexities and he is trigger happy. Do you think we should go to war over Georgia? Bush and McCain's policies have led us to this position of weakness.

____________________

Bigmike:

Boris, I am sorry.

What other joy can we conservatives get these days except poking sticks in libs eyes.

I don't make $250k. I do alright, so don't worry about me.

If I believed Obama, I might even support him. I have no reason to believe him. The numbers just aren't there.

I did believe Bill Clinton and his middle class tax cut in 92. I even volunteered, worked the phones for GOTV, FOR Clinton. And guess what I got. A tax increase.

political_junki asked a little while ago why we always get socially conservative, fiscally conservative candidates on the Repub ticket. The same reason Dems have socially liberal, fiscally liberal candidates. You have to play to the party regulars to get nominated. Both have an occasional exception. This time neither of us got an exception. McCain is closer to breaking that mold than Obama is. Paint it any way you want.

I will be voting for McCain as the lesser of two evils.

Obama is liberal. Forget the blue dog democrats. If they want pork for their districts, and everyone is congress does, they will play along with the liberal majority.

As much as you guys don't want to admit it, we are taking a left turn.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@zotz

Ask Bigmike if he knows how to spell Afghanistan. That's why our involvement in Iraq has been so tragic. We got rid of Sadaam, but now we have a Shiite regime that will be allowed with an emboldened Iran, which no longer has to worry about its mortal enemy Hussein. In the meantime, as Obama says, we took our eye off of Afghanistan where we are now in such a mess that Petraeus is arguing that we MUST have negotiations with the Taliban. Boy oh boy. How far we've come. What a horrid price we've paid in Iraq. And the Surge is utterly unimportant, and somehow praising the Surge only veils how disastrous the decision to go there (a bipartisan one) has been. The issue now is getting out of there as quickly as possible, and McCain will keep us there longer, and he'd likely cause us to be mired in more mischief elsewhere. He is so clearly possessed off poor judgment and dangerously impetuous behavior that having him as president would be a national security risk, a risk that is compounded by his choice of a Talking Sow for VP.

____________________

Dana Adini:

on the conservative blogs they are talking about mccain win....because of this khalidi tape that the LA Times has.

____________________

DTM:

@Bigmike

I'm not sure the conventional understanding of the Left and Right views on economics have really survived the successive administrations of Clinton and Bush. But you are correct that if Bush represents the Right, then Obama would be a notable break.

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

Don't worry about wind-bagginess Boris, you're one of the few people on this site that seems to know what he/she is talking about. Big Mike lived in the Carter era and so he is the expert on economic policy in that period. Likewise, I lived through Reaganomics when I was 0-5 years of age and thus, I am an expert on the subject.

Personally, I don't mind paying higher taxes, as long as I get something good for my money. Health Care would be nice, how about assistance with job training, college, etc. Republicans say they hate "tax and spend" liberals, but look at how much they are willing to piss away on meaningless, costly, and stupid wars! When they get to kill brown people, their pocketbooks are deep, but when it comes to helping out their own citizens, they won't spare a dime!

____________________

Bigmike:

zotz

One heck of a stretch to say Obama is more qualified in foreign policy.

You guys keep bringing up Georgia. Palin wants to take us to war with Russia over Georgia.

Nonsense. The premise to the question that started all of this was that "If Georgia was a member of NATO....". Well, if Georgia was a member of NATO, then if we did not defend Georgia we would not be living up to the terms of the NATO treaty. Are you suggesting that we quit honoring treaties?

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@bigmike

Ok, I'll concede we're taking a left turn, but only after having taken a curiously weird hard right one or whatever it is that was for the past eight years. The turn is not going to be a major one. That isn't possible in our country, even if that were desirable, which it's not. If our economy explodes and we wind up with 10% or more unemployed and desperate people roaming the nation for work and having lost everything, I don't want to contemplate the turn that will produce. So we'd better figure out how to turn things around for the good of us all. Now I'm going to bed.

Ciao Bene Ya'll

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@vonnegutice9

Thank yewwww; there are a lot of very smart people who come to this site. Anonymity and the heat of this election sometimes is getting the better of us all. I really do believe that for me and nearly all of you that being an American is the most important thing. And for better or worse we really are in this ****ing thing together, and arguing is a little like people in a small boat that is leaking arguing about what we should do about it. I think Obama has it locked, and so I am happier than if McCain had one. But I can tell you all that if he won I'd work like hell to make him successful and to ensure that he lives out his entire term.

Now it's gnite, fer shure

____________________

Bigmike:

VonnegutIce9

Big Mike lived in the Carter era and so he is the expert on economic policy in that period. Likewise, I lived through Reaganomics when I was 0-5 years of age and thus, I am an expert on the subject.

ROFLMAO.

No, I wasn't in grade school during the Carter years. I did get my first mortgage during that time. But only after waiting until interest rates FELL to 11.5%. You want a mortgage like that? I had no choice, if I wanted to own a house.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

damn, I can't even spell "won" at this late hour.

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

@Big Mike

My point was deliberately absurd, as I was challenging the notion that simply living through a time in history makes you the expert on it. Many in contemporary society know little about how it functions; therefore, your economic merit does not rest on your "experience" but on your knowledge...cite your knowledge not just the fact that you've existed for a period of time...

____________________

Bigmike:

Sorry, Ice baby. I will cite whatever I darn well please. You don't like it, tough beans.

Believe it or not, experience can be worth a whole lot more than what you read in a text book. There are times and places to apply what you learned in school, and times and places to apply what you learned in life. When you grow up, you will appreciate the difference.

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

@Big Mike

That is a weak argument! You and I both know that kind of thinking is irrational. Based on that reasoning I could claim anything I wanted to based on one or two instances in my own life. Let me illustrate the point:

This summer I worked as a house painter and my co-workers spouted off racist jokes and talked about women derogatorily. I could conclude, from such an experience, that all working class whites are racist, based on your own methodology. Likewise, I've had bad experiences with some people "of the elder persuasion," but I'm not about to call them all racists either!

If your argument cannot hold rationally, then it is not a valid argument, it's as simple as that and we'd have a lot better political system if more people looked at arguments as objectively as possible.

That said, I'm aware that you're an intelligent person Big Mike, all I'm asking is for you to prove your case, or at least argue for it in a cogent, rational way, which I'm sure you're capable of doing! In sum, don't be intellectually lazy.

____________________

Rollin08:

BigMike:

If you keep open minded you might actually be happy with this turn in economic policies. If you give high income people more money they're not going to hire more people unless there's a demand. That's the way businesses work, they don't hire people to stand around. The middle class needs some "spending money" for this economy to work. I have some friends that work in restaurants ect.. and they can't spend sh*t. They're hardly even making it.. Give them some tax money back so they can buy things, it'll give them a little better quality of life, and create some demand. Companies would love that! "MORE demand!". They'll hire then. If they didn't someone else would.

Reducing taxes on middle class is a win/win.. win/win/win. Not Bush giving it to the ultra rich instead. We end up with all the money in the hands of the (few)wealthy who can't even spend all of it. Meanwhile the rest of us can't buy anything. Do you think the wealthy are just going to start hiring? Most of the people can't even buy anything. Nice economic model.. You see, this is why the Bush tax cuts didn't work. I'll bet you wondered why, with the GREATEST tax policies EVER did this collapse happen.

____________________

Bigmike:

VonnegutIce9

When you are just starting out and your only choice for home ownership is an 11.5% mortgage, what more rational argument would you like? This is not some glittering generality. It is a cold, hard fact. It was not one or two instances in my life. Those payments were due the first of EVERY month. If I was lazy, intellectually or otherwise, I would not have been able to make them. I never missed one. I was never late once.

I don't claim to be an economics expert. Neither are most of the middle class that Obama claims he wants to help. Bet you a cup of coffee that if mortgage rates are 11.5% in 2012 Mr. Obama will be shown the door.

____________________

Bigmike:

Rollin08

Ok, it is late, but once more.

I have no reason to believe Obama will cut taxes on 95% of wage earners. His own numbers put the cost of his health care plan at something like $65B. And that is just one of his proposals. So if you raise taxes on those over $250k by just a few percent as promised, give the rest of us a tax cut, how you gonna pay for more goodies?

Clinton promised a middle class tax cut in 92. Take my word for it, I was middle class in 92. Guess what. My taxes went up instead, once he got in office.

We have a saying where I grew up. You probably have the same one where you grew up. Screw me once...........

Goodnight all

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

@Big Mike

Why do you have to put it in the context of your own life, why not just cite a source that says that mortgage rates were 11.5% or near there during the Carter Administration!?

Also, call me crazy but didn't they intentionally make rates high to stem inflation? I'm no expert on the subject, but history seems to deem inflation as the real scourge of any economy...just look at what happened to the Wiemar Republic in Germany, inflation skyrocketed and paper money became worthless, people used it to keep warm in the winter and as wallpaper! Again, I'm not an expert, but I'm sure the majority of people would rather pay high interest rates that have their money become completely worthless because of inflation...These are things to consider, I think.

____________________

Rollin08:

I

____________________

Bigmike:

VonnegutIce9

You know your smarter than you look.

You have to remember the classic tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. You raise interest rates to to keep prices down when the economy is hot. That means people are working. You sacrifice a few jobs for the good of the whole. Unemployment hurts a few, inflation hurts us all. Then it goes the other way. The economy cools off, inflation goes down with it, and then you lower rates to bring jobs back.

But in the Carter days, we had the worst of both worlds. High inflation AND high unemployment. That is why Reagan coined the term "misery index," which is inflation plus unemployment. It was around 20% at the end of the Carter years. As bad as things are today, it is about 11% last I looked at the numbers.

Why do I need to cite a source on what the going rate for mortgages was in the Carter days? I still have my copies of that loan agreement. Thats a good enough source for me.

____________________

Bigmike:

Ok guys. I have to tackle air handling units in the morning. Switching from air cooled to water cooled as part of a green building initiative. Fewer fans, more pumps, and I have to get the electrical to it correct.

Have fun, see ya next time.

____________________

Basil:

Dana

You seem to be the likeliest person here to have a definite opinion on Khalidi in general, yes? He's an interesting figure.

It would appear that McCain's newly publicized favorability to some of Khalidi's mideast efforts would offset whatever negatives the LAT tape might hold for Obama. The right-wingers you've seen probably haven't picked up on that yet. In a way, McCain's favorability towards Khalidi is more substantive than Obama's, but it would be nice to see the tape.

The LAT may have compelling reasons not to release the tape, other than trying to protect Obama, so it may not even be up to them.

Re Khalidi, here's a Wiki bit:

In May of 2008, Barack Obama spoke at a synagogue at an event in Boca Raton, Florida and the question of his relationship with Khalidi was brought up. In response, Obama stated that “[Khalidi] is Palestinian. And I do know him and I have had conversations. He is not one of my advisors; he’s not one of my foreign policy people. His kids went to the Lab school where my kids go as well. He is a respected scholar, although he vehemently disagrees with a lot of Israel’s policy... To pluck out one person who I know and who I’ve had a conversation with who has very different views than 900 of my friends and then to suggest that somehow that shows that maybe I’m not sufficiently pro-Israel, I think, is a very problematic stand to take…So we gotta be careful about guilt by association.”

In an interview with the Los Angeles Times, Khalidi stated that he strongly disagrees with Obama's views on Israel. However, because of Obama's "unusual background, with family ties to Kenya and Indonesia," Khalidi stated that he believes that Obama is "more understanding of the Palestinian experience than typical American politicians."

____________________

Rollin08:

C'ya BigMike. Software here..

____________________

Florida Voter:

Lots of grumbling here in Florida by the Repubs on how "Crist just gave Florida to Obama" by extending the voting hours. Have to give him kudos as he is putting people first over party.

Here in Pinellas County (Tampa Bay Area) we have a very partisan Elections Supervisor as this county has 700,000 registered voters yet she has only opened 3 early voting sites. In 2000 and 2004 when the Repubs were favored she had ALOT more. A small county north of here with 21,000 registered voters, they have 5 early voting sites. Big difference!!! The supervisor here is a Jeb protege, as she always puts her party first over actual voter turnout. It's time for her to leave.

____________________



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