Travel Day "Outliers"
Mark Blumenthal | May 13, 2008
Gary Langer digs into the ABC/Post general election data on Barack Obama's performance among non-college white voters.
Poblano projects a 39 percentage point, 105,000 vote win for Clinton in West Virginia.
Brian Schaffner has delegate predictions for WV and beyond.
DailyKos diarist Meng Bomin has thematic maps galore on the Democratic primary results (via Sullivan):
And I am heading to catch a plane to New Orleans for the 63rd Conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), from whence I'll blog. More details later. I will be off the grid as results from West Virginia come in, but Eric will put up an open comments thread and our friend Mark Lindeman should be dropping by.
By Mark Blumenthal | May 13, 2008 3:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)
Comments
My projection
Clinton 67%
Obama 30%
Others 3%
Turnout:271,000
Clinton will net +100,281 votes
Delegates: 21-7 Clinton
Pablano was pretty close on the percentage but missed badly on the spread. When I first saw the 105,000 number I thought it was a misprint. Maybe it was.
West Va unofficial results
http://www.wvvotes5.com/
Clinton 239,187 67.0%
Obama 91,663 25.7%
Edwards 26,181 7.3%
Total 357,031 100.0%
BTW. All SecOfState offices
http://nass.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=89&Itemid=223
West Va unofficial results
http://www.wvvotes5.com/
Clinton 239,187 67.0%
Obama 91,663 25.7%
Edwards 26,181 7.3%
Total 357,031 100.0%
BTW. All SecOfState offices
http://nass.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=89&Itemid=223
Interesting... these results are the reverse of my state's contest.... Washington Democratic caucuses:
Obama 67.51%
Clinton 31.2%
We also had a primary that did not count where the contest was more competitive (Obama 51.22 % Clinton 45.67 %).
Having said that-- I hope Hillary gets the kudos she is due for winning West Virginia by such a huge margin. This is bigger than Obama's win in South Carolina.
Not sure I understand Pablano's analysis. If Clinton wins by 39% (say 69/30) and turnout is 300,000 the margin is 117,000. Msnbc is projecting 450,000. A thirty nine point win translates to 175,000 vote margin. Am I missing something?
Posted on May 13, 2008 7:26 PM